Latest News

As Mideast ceasefire looms, oil prices jump and stocks fall

On Monday, oil prices rose and global equity markets declined as investors became increasingly worried that the ceasefire agreement between the U.S.A. and Iran may not hold and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz increased.

Brent crude futures rose 6% to $95.85 per barrel. MSCI's global?share index fell around 0.3% last week, with Europe's STOXX600 down by 1.1%. This was after Asia's equity markets?stood up to risks and advanced. S&P futures were down 0.65%.

On Monday, concerns grew that the ceasefire agreement between the United States of America and Iran may not last after the U.S. announced that it had seized an Iranian cargo vessel that attempted to circumvent its blockade. Iran also vowed retaliation.

Kpler data showed that more than 20 vessels carrying oil products, metals, gas and fertiliser passed through the strait on Saturday. This was the busiest day for this chokepoint since March 1. Kpler data showed, however, that on Saturday more than 20 vessels carrying metals, oil, gas, and fertiliser crossed the Strait of Hormuz, making it the busiest time for the chokepoint in the last year.

Markets cling to any news that could indicate a certain outcome, which is why there are such large swings. Sandra Horsfield is an economist with Investec.

She said that although markets had pulled back from Friday's announcement that Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz, those moves hadn't been "fully" retraced. This suggests that there is still some "improved feeling".

Keir starmer, British prime minister, is scheduled to speak in?Parliament Monday. He has been called for resignation over his handling of Peter Mandelson's appointment as U.S. Ambassador despite the fact that he failed a thorough vetting procedure.

SEEK ANSWERS TO PEACE TALKS; CENTER YOUR VISION ON HORMUZ

The future of negotiations between Iran and the U.S. seemed to be uncertain.

Derren Nathan is the head of equity research for Hargreaves Lansdown. He said that more volatility was likely to follow.

Iran's?state media agency reported that Iran had rejected any new peace talks with America, just hours after Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said he would send envoys to Pakistan for talks and launch new attacks on Iran if it did not accept his terms.

Horsfield, from Investec, said: "We thought that there would be some'swings and roundsabouts' within this rather than a linear path to an end result."

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries increased 2.6 basis points, to 4.2697%. Meanwhile, the yield on German government 10-year bonds rose by 3.6 basis points, to 3.0015%.

The dollar, which has been sold for most of the last two weeks, has largely stabilized and is now trading at $1.1761 to the euro.

Wall Street indexes reached record highs last Friday, fueled by expectations for robust first-quarter results, with the majority of them coming this week.

The week will also bring British inflation figures, U.S. Retail Sales and European Purchasing managers' Index figures. However, the markets' main focus is likely to be on Gulf Shipping.

Bob Savage is the head of BNY's markets macro strategy. He said that "the?critical barometer of risk" was the number of ships crossing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The immediate focus of the talks is oil and other shortages that are driving inflation.

(source: Reuters)