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Russell: The price of crude oil makes Trump TACO less likely to trade:

Crude oil futures are still pricing in a resolution of the Middle East conflict that will result in the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

In 'pricing' for this outcome, the market actually makes it more likely that the narrow waterway which serves as a conduit to as much as 20 % of the world’s oil supply remains closed.

The market still expects U.S. president Donald Trump to deliver TACO - the acronym for Trump always chickens out.

By keeping the price of 'paper crude oil' at levels that allow for a relatively rapid return to normal flow from the Persian Gulf it gives Trump the room he needs to continue the conflict in the mistaken belief that the global market isn’t at crisis point yet.

It's a Catch-22. The paradoxical, no-win situation popularised in 1961 by Joseph Heller's novel with the same title.

Brent crude futures, the global benchmark for oil prices, were trading at around $111.81 per barrel during early Asian trade Monday. They had risen by 54% from the $72.48 close on February 27, a day before Israel and the U.S. launched an air campaign against Iran.

Brent reached a high of $139.13 per barrel when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 20, 2022.

The Russian attack on Ukraine is different from the conflict currently raging in the Middle East because the Russian action did not result in significant losses of crude oil and refined products.

China and India took up the slack when European countries stopped purchasing Russian crude and products. The disruption was limited to the rerouting of flow and pricing.

The situation today is quite different. Most of the 20,000,000 barrels of crude oil and refined products that normally transit the Strait of Hormuz have been lost.

Even with the increased flow of crude oil and refined products from the United Arab Emirate of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman and Saudi Arabia's Yanbu Port in the Red Sea, the world's?market will still lose at least 12,000,000 barrels of product per day.

The International Energy Agency's moves to release their stockpiles, and the waiver of U.S. sanctions against Russian oil and Iranian crude in water are only temporary solutions that don't do much to solve the problem.

HORMUZ is the only game

The Strait of Hormuz is the single most important factor. And the longer the Strait remains closed to the majority of vessel traffic, the more strain it will put on global supply.

Singapore jet fuel prices are already showing the strain in Asia. The price of a barrel reached a record high on March 19 at $225.62, having more than doubled from the previous close on February 27, when it was $93.45.

The highest price of jet fuel was $173.69 per barrel during the price spike after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. This shows that physical traders did not perceive the same risk as the current war with Iran.

The market must ask itself how high crude oil futures will have to go before Trump is forced to deliver on the TACO deal, instead of the current mixed message word salad.

Trump has switched in recent weeks from saying that the conflict would be over soon, to threatening to obliterate Iran's energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened.

This move and the likely Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf do not sound like the necessary de-escalation to control crude oil futures.

It seems that the de-escalation of tensions and a reopening of the Strait are getting further apart with every passing day.

The history shows that long-running, intractable conflict is usually resolved only when one side achieves a decisive victory in a war. This is unlikely to happen in the current war. Or when the peace interests of the majority of parties begin to align.

Trump wants to end the conflict quickly to increase the chances that his Republican Party will win the mid-term elections in November. But his ego also needs a victory even if only his domestic political base believes it.

Israel wants to eliminate Iran permanently as a threat and does not seem to care if a "severe recession" is the result of continuing the war.

Iran's authoritarian regime, which has achieved its first goal of survival, might believe that prolonging the conflict will give it more leverage to negotiate favorable terms for any settlement.

Russia is probably laughing to the bank, and wants the war on indefinitely.

China believes it will be insulated by its large crude oil stockpile. However, the longer the conflict continues, the more likely that the fallout on China's highly dependent economy.

Virtually all major Asian, African, and European nations want a "rapid" end to the conflict, as they fear the economic implications of a prolonged lack of crude oil supply from the Gulf. Fuel-importing countries are particularly at risk.

Lack of alignment increases the likelihood of war continuing or even getting worse.

The global economy is likely to be affected by a loss of at least 10% of its crude oil and refined product supply.

The problem this time is supply, not demand.

The global economic impact of adjusting demand by 10 million bpd is not evenly distributed. Regions like Asia and Africa will likely suffer more.

Even in wealthy countries, governments often lack the fiscal power to combat an increase in energy prices and their accompanying economic downturn.

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These are the views of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)