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Oil prices rise in Asia amid Gulf turmoil
The Asian stock markets matched Wall Street's?higher levels on Monday, after a weak U.S. jobs data reduced the risk of an increase in borrowing costs in the near term. However, a lack progress in Gulf peace talks led to a rise in oil prices. Iran announced?on Sunday that an agreement with Oman to define new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz is in its final stages. However, it reiterated that this waterway will only be reopened once the United States meets other conditions. Brent crude increased 1.0% to $84.40 per barrel, as shipping in the crucial waterway was at a crawl. U.S. crude was up 0.8% to $79.80 per barrel. Fuel costs are on the rise again, raising the stakes in the U.S. consumer price report for July due Wednesday. Analysts expect a 0.1% increase in the headline figure and 0.2% in the core. A positive surprise next month could reignite speculation about a Federal Reserve rate hike. Michael Feroli is the chief U.S. economics at JPMorgan. He said that "our forecast for core CPI at 0.22% probably isn't firm enough to trigger a Fed hike at their September meeting." We are looking for a rebound in the prices of core goods after a period in which they dropped by two months. The market for futures has reduced the probability of a move in September to 44% from 67% just a week earlier. Wall Street closed at record highs on Friday due to the 'pullback of rate risk'. Japan's Nikkei rose 2.0%, while South Korea gained 1.1%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan grew by 0.8%. Chinese blue-chips fell 0.4% as data revealed that consumer and producer prices inflation in July came in below forecasts, highlighting the softness in domestic demand. DOUBLE DIGIT GROWTH IN EARNINGS In Europe, EUROSTOXX Futures 50 and DAX Futures both fell by 0.1% while FTSE Futures dropped 0.4%. S&P futures were unchanged, while Nasdaq's futures rose 0.2% after gaining 5% in the previous week, amid a series of positive earnings reports. Analysts from BofA stated that earnings per share had increased 30% over the previous year, after Alphabet's and Amazon's investment gains were excluded. The 76% EPS rate was the highest since 2021. They said that "AI is still the leader, with median earnings growth of 28 percent compared to 12% for other non-AI related?stocks. However, consensus expects AI to slow down to 16 percent next quarter." This week's earnings are lower, but still include semiconductor maker Applied Materials and networking equipment maker Cisco as well as cloud infrastructure technology provider CoreWeave. Bond markets saw a slight increase in yields on 10-year Treasuries, at 4.662%. The market is preparing for $125 billion of new issuance this week. The U.S. Dollar had fallen sharply as a result of the drop in yields, and the general improvement in the risk environment. The euro was just a few cents away from achieving a seven-week high at $1.1554. Investors were wary about?intervention if they pushed the yen too low. A summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's July meeting revealed that policy makers were concerned about rising inflation, which could lead to a faster than expected pace of interest rate hikes. This boosted the case for an increase in September. The drop in yields has helped gold that does not pay interest to hold its $4,320 per ounce price after it had risen more than 7% over the last week. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam, Stephen Coates and Wayne Cole)
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China data shows that iron ore prices are downbeat despite Australian strikes
Iron ore prices were barely changed on Monday as investors considered the impact of a strike in Australia at a major hub for exporting the key steelmaking ingredient against the downbeat inflation figures from China, the top consumer. As of 0323 GMT, the most traded iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was unchanged at 716 Yuan ($106.13). As of 0315 GMT, the benchmark?September ore price on the Singapore Exchange had increased by 0.21% to $95.25 per ton. On Sunday, more workers joined the strike at BHP's Port Hedland operation in Western Australia. This was the first major industrial action in a quarter century. In the six months to June, 75% of the iron ore exported from Western Australia's Pilbara region was shipped through the hub. Investors and traders are watching to see if both sides can reach a deal soon or if an escalation will affect supply. China's producer prices inflation fell more than expected in July, to the lowest level?in three months. Consumer inflation also dropped, as global energy costs retreated, despite U.S. and Israel war against Iran. Coking coal, coke and other steelmaking ingredients grew by 2.23%, and 0.67% respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks were mostly weaker. Rebar fell?0.23%; hot-rolled coil slipped?0.03%; wire rod dropped 0.46%, while stainless steel gained 0.69%.
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Gold falls from its seven-week high as US inflation data is looming
Gold prices fell on Monday, as investors took profits following a seven-week high. Meanwhile, markets waited for new clues from U.S. inflation figures to determine the Federal Reserve's rate policy. As of 0200 GMT, spot gold was down 0.5% to $4,322.28 an ounce. After a weaker than expected?U.S. jobs data. U.S. Gold futures dropped 0.4% on Monday to $4,381.60. Gold is slightly lower as it succumbs a little to profit-taking after last week's NFP-inspired gains. This is more of a natural stabilisation than a significant shift in sentiment. I expect gold will remain above $4,300 in the near term. The U.S. economy lost jobs unexpectedly in July, and the previously reported gains in employment for the previous two months have been revised dramatically lower. The futures market then changed the odds that a rate increase would occur at the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting on September 15-16 from a more likely-than not chance to a less-than-even possibility. Gold is more attractive than income-generating assets in a low interest rate environment, since it does not earn interest. The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, will be released on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index on Thursday. Waterer said that "soft readings would make the case for a rate hold and open up a new path to further gold upside. Middle East uncertainty is a persistent risk factor as any renewed escalation in oil prices could put pressure on 'the metal. Iran has said that it is close to a final agreement with Oman, defining new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the U.S. still needs to meet several conditions in order for the strategic waterway to be reopened. Silver spot fell by 0.2%, to $63.45 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.1%, to $1.742.50, and palladium dropped 1.1%, to $1.362.97. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu in Bengaluru. Ashitha Shivaprasad is based in Bengaluru.
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Australia tightens restrictions on two Northern Minerals shareholders who are ordered to divest
The Australian government has tightened restrictions on two Northern Minerals shareholders who were ordered to 'divest their shares over national security concerns,' the?miner reported. This is a further scrutiny of Chinese investment in the rare-earths developer. Northern Minerals has developed the Browns Range Heavy Rare Earths Project in Western Australia. Western governments are looking to reduce their reliance on China as a source of these minerals. The Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers, ordered in May that six offshore shareholders of Northern Minerals divest all their shares over concerns that Chinese-linked groups were seeking to control the rare earths miner. Chalmers said it had amended interim instructions for Hong Kong Ying Tak and Real International Resources registered in the British Virgin Islands, as well as Hong Kong Qogir Trading & Service. According to the revised directions, Real and Qogir are not allowed to dispose of their shares until the proposed sale has been notified?to the Treasurer in order for him/her to confirm the buyer isn't an associated party. In May, the six shareholders were required to sell a total of 1.68 billion Northern Minerals shares by July 2 to non-associated parties. The ASX200 index had fallen 0.3% by 0026 GMT, despite the share price of Northern Minerals rising as high as 3.9%. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Jacobi-Phillips, Subhranshu S Ahu, Melanie Burton in Melbourne. Additional reporting by Rajasik Mukherjee)
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Russell: The demand for crude oil in Asia is balanced by the ROI-China.
China is doing all the heavy lifting to reduce crude oil demand in?Asia as a way to compensate for the reduced shipments of Middle East oil due the the Iran?war. The world's largest oil importer reported arriving 8.41 million barrels a day (bpd), up from a near decade-low of 7.12 mln in June, but still 24.3% less than July last year. When June and July imports combined, this gives a?average of 7.78 million bpd over the last two months. The average for the three-month period ending in February was 11,99 million bpd. This is 4,21 million bpd less. The United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran on 28 February. The conflict escalated to the point that the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down, cutting off the waterway which carried about 20% of crude oil and refined goods in the world before the start of war. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are two of the Middle East’s biggest crude exporters. They have been able to increase shipments outside the Strait of Hormuz. However, flows have fallen by about 5 million barrels per day. Crude exports from the Middle East are mainly destined for Asia, which is the largest importer of crude oil. However, crude arrivals in Asia have dropped significantly. According to Kpler's data, Asia imported 22.82 millions bpd of oil in July. Although this was an increase from April's 18.77 millions bpd (which was the lowest since Nov 2015), July's imports still fell by about 4 million per day compared to the average of 26,89 million per day in the three-month period prior to the onset of the 'Iran conflict'. The data shows that China's imports have dropped by about the same amount as the imports of Asia in the last two months. Price Moves China's decreased imports are partly due to price volatility. Brent futures hit a four-year peak of $126.41 per barrel on April 30 – a date when cargoes for June and July would have been scheduled. China has historically reduced imports as prices increase, but this drop is unprecedented. Analysts estimate that China's crude oil stockpile is at least 1.2 million barrels, and could even be higher. How long will China be able to balance crude oil prices in Asia? Imports from China are expected to show a slight recovery in August as the cargoes which managed to leave the Strait of Hormuz despite the short ceasefire between Iran and the United States are delivered. Kpler estimates that China's Middle East imports will reach 2.71 million barrels per day (bpd) in August. This is up from 2.43 millions bpd during July, and 1.42 million in June. Kpler estimates that China's crude oil imports in August will be 5.97 million barrels per day. This is up from 2.43 million bpd in July and the 1.42 million bpd of June, which was?the lowest ever recorded by Kpler going back to 2013. September imports will likely be more telling, since flows from the Middle East are more restricted due to the sharply reduced shipments that have returned through the Strait of Hormuz following the failure of the ceasefire agreement between U.S. president Donald Trump and Tehran. Even if recent efforts to restore vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz prove successful, it may take several weeks before exports ramp up. China's refiners have two options: they can continue to suppress their appetite for import crude and dip into inventories or bid for cargoes coming from outside the Middle East. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by SonaliPaul)
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Oil prices rise on the uncertainty surrounding the reopening Hormuz
Oil prices rose Monday?on the uncertainty of a reopening the Strait?of Hormuz any time soon. Iran said a?deal with Oman?defining?new shipping?lanes? was in its final phases?but?insisted that the U.S. still must meet other conditions. Brent crude futures increased 91 cents (1.09%) to $84.46 a bar by 0056 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures also rose 61 cents (0.78%) to $78.79 a bar. Both benchmarks fell more than 7% in the last week, on the hope that Iran and Oman would soon reach a deal that would lead to the reopening of Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz carried a fifth of the world's crude oil before the war. Iran claimed on Sunday that it was "finalizing" a deal with Oman, but reiterated that waterway access would be restored only after Washington met certain conditions. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. Abbas Araqchi, Iran's Foreign Minister, said on Sunday that Iran and the U.S. have not begun talks. Tehran won't start any as long as Washington violates a June interim agreement. A Saudi oil plant has been attacked in a "further attack on supply". The Iran-aligned Houthis claimed they 'hit' Saudi Aramco Jazan refinery two days after 'the kingdom signed a pact of defence with Sunni Muslim friends Turkey and Pakistan to respond to the growing regional 'instability' caused by the U.S./Israeli war against 'Shi'ite Iran. Separately, ADNOC of the United Arab Emirates said that 15 of their vessels were attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
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Oil prices rise in the Gulf amid confusion and Asian stock markets edge higher
The Asian share market matched Wall Street's gains on Monday, after a weak U.S. employment report reduced the risk of an increase in borrowing costs near-term. However, a lack progress?in Gulf Peace talks led to oil prices?creeping?higher. Iran announced on Sunday that it was nearing the final stages of a deal that would define new shipping lanes for the Strait of Hormuz. However, the Iranian government reiterated that this waterway will only be reopened once the United States meets other conditions. Brent crude increased by 0.9% to $84.32 per barrel, as the shipping volume through this vital waterway was minimal. U.S. crude rose by 0.7% to $79.74 per barrel. Fuel costs are on the rise again, raising the stakes for Wednesday's U.S. consumer price report. Analysts expect a 0.1% increase in the headline figure and 0.2% for the core. A positive surprise could reignite speculation about a Federal Reserve hike next month. Michael Feroli is the chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan. He said that our forecast of core CPI at 0.22% was "probably not firm enough" to trigger a Fed hike at its September meeting. However, repeated readings closer to 0.3% might do the trick. We are looking for a rebound in the prices of core goods after a period of two months where they have fallen. The futures markets has reduced the probability of a move in September to 44% from 67% one week ago. Wall Street closed at new records on Friday as the pullback in interest rate risk helped Treasuries rally. Japan's Nikkei jumped 0.6% Monday while South Korea gained 0.5%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan grew by 0.3%. DOUBLE DIGIT GROWTH IN EARNINGS In Europe, EUROSTOXX Futures 50 and DAX Futures both fell by 0.1% while FTSE Futures dropped 0.4%. S&P futures fell 0.1% while Nasdaq was little changed after a week of positive earnings reports. Analysts from BofA stated that earnings per share were up 30% over the previous year, even after Alphabet's and Amazon's investment gains had been excluded. The 76% EPS rate was the highest since 2021. In a note, they said: "AI is still the leader, with median earnings growth of 28%, compared to 12% for non AI related stocks. However, consensus expects AI's growth to slow down to 16% in the next quarter." This week's earnings are lower, but semiconductor maker Applied Materials and networking equipment?maker Cisco as well as cloud infrastructure technology provider CoreWeave all have positive results. Bond markets saw yields for 10-year Treasuries a little higher, at 4.673%. The market is bracing itself for $125 billion of new issuance in the coming week. The U.S. Dollar had fallen sharply due to the drop in yields, and a general improvement of risk. Investors are still wary about intervening if the yen falls too low. The drop in yields has helped gold that does not pay interest to hold its $4,342 per ounce price after it had risen more than 7% over the last week. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam.)
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Taylor Farms recalls salsa and guacamole over salmonella risk
Taylor Farms announced on Sunday that it was recalling from retailers more than 12 'prepared food items' containing jalapenos. This includes salsas and guacamole. The California-based provider said that it had voluntarily pulled products with jalapeno in them due to a recall by Coast Citrus Distributors. It also stated that it was "no more" sourcing the peppers from a Mexican farmer who?supplied Coast Citrus, while it searches for alternative suppliers. The recall is being conducted as U.S. authorities investigate an outbreak of Salmonella linked to imported jalapeno peppers from Mexico. This outbreak, which began earlier this week, sickened 345 people in 27 states and resulted in 36 hospitalizations. Chipotle Mexican Grill, QDOBA and other restaurant chains have stopped using the peppers. Coast Citrus has recalled and informed customers of the remaining product. Taylor 'Farms has not received any reports of illnesses related to the voluntary recalled products, the statement added. Salmonella infections cause diarrhea, fever and stomach cramps, which can be severe for young children, elderly people, or those with weakened immune systems. The recall is being conducted amid increased scrutiny on food safety following an outbreak of cyclosporiasis, a parasitic disease linked to iceberg lettuce served by Taco Bell. It also coincides with renewed attention given to Chipotle’s previous foodborne illness outbreaks.
RPT-Syria is dependent on Russian oil despite pivoting to the West
Reporting shows that Russia is now the largest oil supplier to Syria despite the alignment of the new government with the West, and despite widespread mistrust of Moscow due to its military support of the fallen leader Bashar Al-Assad.
The report found that oil shipments from Russia increased by 75% this year to a total of?60,000 barrels a day. This was based on official announcements, and data from ship tracking sites such as LSEG MarineTraffic, and Shipnext.
These volumes are a small part of Russia's daily oil exports.
The flows will make Russia the dominant oil supplier in Syria after the fall of Assad, December 2024. This is replacing Iran, which was a major ally of the ousted president during the?14-year civil conflict.
This dynamic shows how limited Syria's options are. Even though Syria emerged from the war as a Western-leaning country, its economy has not been closely integrated into global financial systems, even after Europe & Washington ended decades of sanctions against the?country last year.
Three Syrian officials and two analysts said that the trade was a reflection of economic necessity for Damascus. It also gave Moscow influence over a country in which it still has two air and naval bases.
Officials who spoke under condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive issues said that the relationship with Russia could strain ties between the EU and Washington. However, Damascus has limited options at the moment.
According to Syrian economist Karam Shar, the trade could also expose Syria's energy industry to new Western sanctions.
Shaar added that the Syrian government is aware of the risks, and is looking for alternatives suppliers.
A representative of the state-run Syrian Petroleum Company said that Damascus is trying to diversify its suppliers and has, to date, unsuccessfully sought an oil agreement with Turkey, a country close to Sharaa's government.
SynMax, a maritime analytics firm, said that financial constraints, commercial risk and years of conflict limited Syria's ability to access conventional tanker operators. It left Russian-linked networks as the most viable option.
SynMax, in a press release, said that these shipping networks "could present reputational issues for Syria when it seeks re-establish its commercial credibility." However, the statement noted that a "transition to conventional international supply chain is unlikely to happen immediately."
The Russian or Syrian energy ministries did not respond to comment requests. The U.S. State Department refused to comment on Syria’s oil trade with Russia. The U.S. Treasury issued temporary waivers to countries that bought sanctioned Russian oil or petroleum products at sea in response to the war in Iran.
The Ministry of Information in Syria, which deals with media requests for Sharaa's Office, did not either respond.
Officials from the Syrian Energy Ministry said that Syria's dependence on Russian oil was also due to its small market and low purchasing power. This made it difficult for Syria to sign long-term contracts, such as with Gulf oil producers.
In March, the Central Bank of Syria reactivated their account with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This opened the door to wider banking communication with the global financial systems for the first since 2011.
RUSSIA IS FIRST TO SEND OIL FOLLOWING ASSAD'S DEATH
According to Kpler and an official, Russia was the first country to send a cargo to Syria following Assad's fall. It went on to ship 16.8?million bbls by 2025 – or 46,000 barrels a day – through 19 cargoes between February 28th and December 31st.
Calculations show that this has increased to 60,000 barrels a day.
The names of 21 vessels that arrive in Syrian ports from Russia almost weekly were tracked. All 21 vessels are under Western sanctions.
The increase is a dramatic departure from the previous years. Iran was Syria’s main crude supplier until 2025. Russia's contribution was limited to occasional diesel deliveries. Kpler data indicates that in 2024, all crude imports - 22.2 million barrels – came from Iran. This was after Assad fell.
The government has regained control of the oil fields in eastern Syria but domestic production is still limited. Al-Omar, the country's biggest field in Deir-Ezzor, produces 5,000 barrels of oil per day. Total domestic production was 35,000 bpd by 2025, which is far below the 350,000 bpd levels before war.
According to officials from the Syrian Petroleum Company, and the energy ministry, Syria's daily fuel and oil needs are between 120,000 and 150.000 barrels. Additional volumes, estimated by officials as around 50,000 bpd, are smuggled in from Lebanon, which imports its oil from many sources, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.
The Russian shipments have covered the gap of approximately a third of the domestic demand. These contracts were purchased at a discounted price to Brent crude benchmark prices before the Iran War. An official from the Syrian Company for Oil Transport who is familiar with these contracts confirmed that the contracts were booked in advance of the Iran War.
Syrian authorities do not reveal the origin of oil shipments in their state-run media, despite the fact that they are announced in public. This is because Russia's military support for Assad's government makes it unpopular in Syria.
The government only identified one delivery, from an ally Saudi Arabia. It was described as a gift.
Syrian officials admit that the fates of Russian bases are often discussed between Damascus, and Western capitals.
In an April post on X, U.S. Republican Congressman Joe Wilson stated that Syria should "do the right thing" and do what the majority in Syria supports and remove the bases.
SANCTIONED VESHELS
LSEG data show that at Syria's Mediterranean Terminals, trade is handled through a rotating tanker fleet linked to Russia's network sanctioned or risky tankers. These vessels operate under multiple flags such as Panama, Liberia Marshall Islands, Comoros Madagascar Oman, Russia and Liberia.
According to SynMax's analysis, ship-to-ship transfers are part of the supply chain and often take place near Greece, Cyprus, or Egypt.
These 'transfers of crude oil at sea, rather than the direct unloading of cargo in port' are often used to cut transportation costs or evade sanctions through obscuring origin and ownership.
The ship-to-ship operation indicates that the United States does not completely turn a blind-eye to these activities and that at least some of these shipments are being concealed by the Syrian and Russian authorities, said Shaar, an economist.
SynMax reports that on its short journey from Cyprus, the?Comoros-flagged AlbarraqZ, sanctioned in January by the U.S. for alleged links to Iran-backed Houthi network, appears to have taken oil via three sea transfers. Ships had left Russian port before anchoring near Syria's Tartous where draft changes of 11.9 meters to 7 metres?suggested a cargo discharge. The purpose of these transfers could not be determined. Some vessels are linked to Iranian-linked networks of trading that Russia also uses. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Guinea-flagged Aether in 2025 and the Madagascar-flagged Briont in 2025 because of their links to Hossein Shamkhani's network, the son a former Iranian Supreme leader advisor.
SynMax discovered that both vessels showed irregular tracking behavior. Aether transmitted intermittently from the beginning of January, and Briont broadcast under another vessel’s identity starting in mid-January. Could not determine the cause of the intermittent location data.
One source said that Syria used these transfers partly because officials were familiarized with the logistics networks after being excluded for years from the normal shipping networks.
Other ships that unload in Syria seem to be more closely linked to Russian logistic. According to two different analyses conducted by the intelligence firms Lloyd's List & Kharon, both Oman-flagged Carma & Lynx were owned by an UAE-based company that is linked to Russia's Sovcomflot state shipping giant. According to two separate analyses by intelligence firms Lloyd's List and Kharon, the Comoros flagged Grinch was detained by France back in February. The U.S. & EU have been sanctioning it since last year because of its links with Russia's oil exporting fleet from Murmansk. Could not independently verify ownership of the ships.
Noam Raydan is a maritime and energy analyst with the Washington Institute. He warned that it's not just about Syria paying for and getting its oil.
She said: "The question is, who are the sanctioned players that benefit from this trade?" (Written by Feras Dalatey; edited by Frank Jack Daniel
(source: Reuters)