RPT-Syria is dependent on Russian oil despite pivoting to the West

Reporting shows that Russia is now the largest oil supplier to Syria despite the alignment of the new government with the West, and despite widespread mistrust of Moscow due to its military support of the fallen leader Bashar Al-Assad.

The report found that oil shipments from Russia increased by 75% this year to a total of?60,000 barrels a day. This was based on official announcements, and data from ship tracking sites such as LSEG MarineTraffic, and Shipnext.

These volumes are a small part of Russia's daily oil exports.

The flows will make Russia the dominant oil supplier in Syria after the fall of Assad, December 2024. This is replacing Iran, which was a major ally of the ousted president during the?14-year civil conflict.

This dynamic shows how limited Syria's options are. Even though Syria emerged from the war as a Western-leaning country, its economy has not been closely integrated into global financial systems, even after Europe & Washington ended decades of sanctions against the?country last year.

Three Syrian officials and two analysts said that the trade was a reflection of economic necessity for Damascus. It also gave Moscow influence over a country in which it still has two air and naval bases.

Officials who spoke under condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive issues said that the relationship with Russia could strain ties between the EU and Washington. However, Damascus has limited options at the moment.

According to Syrian economist Karam Shar, the trade could also expose Syria's energy industry to new Western sanctions.

Shaar added that the Syrian government is aware of the risks, and is looking for alternatives suppliers.

A representative of the state-run Syrian Petroleum Company said that Damascus is trying to diversify its suppliers and has, to date, unsuccessfully sought an oil agreement with Turkey, a country close to Sharaa's government.

SynMax, a maritime analytics firm, said that financial constraints, commercial risk and years of conflict limited Syria's ability to access conventional tanker operators. It left Russian-linked networks as the most viable option.

SynMax, in a press release, said that these shipping networks "could present reputational issues for Syria when it seeks re-establish its commercial credibility." However, the statement noted that a "transition to conventional international supply chain is unlikely to happen immediately."

The Russian or Syrian energy ministries did not respond to comment requests. The U.S. State Department refused to comment on Syria’s oil trade with Russia. The U.S. Treasury issued temporary waivers to countries that bought sanctioned Russian oil or petroleum products at sea in response to the war in Iran.

The Ministry of Information in Syria, which deals with media requests for Sharaa's Office, did not either respond.

Officials from the Syrian Energy Ministry said that Syria's dependence on Russian oil was also due to its small market and low purchasing power. This made it difficult for Syria to sign long-term contracts, such as with Gulf oil producers.

In March, the Central Bank of Syria reactivated their account with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This opened the door to wider banking communication with the global financial systems for the first since 2011.

RUSSIA IS FIRST TO SEND OIL FOLLOWING ASSAD'S DEATH

According to Kpler and an official, Russia was the first country to send a cargo to Syria following Assad's fall. It went on to ship 16.8?million bbls by 2025 – or 46,000 barrels a day – through 19 cargoes between February 28th and December 31st.

Calculations show that this has increased to 60,000 barrels a day.

The names of 21 vessels that arrive in Syrian ports from Russia almost weekly were tracked. All 21 vessels are under Western sanctions.

The increase is a dramatic departure from the previous years. Iran was Syria’s main crude supplier until 2025. Russia's contribution was limited to occasional diesel deliveries. Kpler data indicates that in 2024, all crude imports - 22.2 million barrels – came from Iran. This was after Assad fell.

The government has regained control of the oil fields in eastern Syria but domestic production is still limited. Al-Omar, the country's biggest field in Deir-Ezzor, produces 5,000 barrels of oil per day. Total domestic production was 35,000 bpd by 2025, which is far below the 350,000 bpd levels before war.

According to officials from the Syrian Petroleum Company, and the energy ministry, Syria's daily fuel and oil needs are between 120,000 and 150.000 barrels. Additional volumes, estimated by officials as around 50,000 bpd, are smuggled in from Lebanon, which imports its oil from many sources, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.

The Russian shipments have covered the gap of approximately a third of the domestic demand. These contracts were purchased at a discounted price to Brent crude benchmark prices before the Iran War. An official from the Syrian Company for Oil Transport who is familiar with these contracts confirmed that the contracts were booked in advance of the Iran War.

Syrian authorities do not reveal the origin of oil shipments in their state-run media, despite the fact that they are announced in public. This is because Russia's military support for Assad's government makes it unpopular in Syria.

The government only identified one delivery, from an ally Saudi Arabia. It was described as a gift.

Syrian officials admit that the fates of Russian bases are often discussed between Damascus, and Western capitals.

In an April post on X, U.S. Republican Congressman Joe Wilson stated that Syria should "do the right thing" and do what the majority in Syria supports and remove the bases.

SANCTIONED VESHELS

LSEG data show that at Syria's Mediterranean Terminals, trade is handled through a rotating tanker fleet linked to Russia's network sanctioned or risky tankers. These vessels operate under multiple flags such as Panama, Liberia Marshall Islands, Comoros Madagascar Oman, Russia and Liberia.

According to SynMax's analysis, ship-to-ship transfers are part of the supply chain and often take place near Greece, Cyprus, or Egypt.

These 'transfers of crude oil at sea, rather than the direct unloading of cargo in port' are often used to cut transportation costs or evade sanctions through obscuring origin and ownership.

The ship-to-ship operation indicates that the United States does not completely turn a blind-eye to these activities and that at least some of these shipments are being concealed by the Syrian and Russian authorities, said Shaar, an economist.

SynMax reports that on its short journey from Cyprus, the?Comoros-flagged AlbarraqZ, sanctioned in January by the U.S. for alleged links to Iran-backed Houthi network, appears to have taken oil via three sea transfers. Ships had left Russian port before anchoring near Syria's Tartous where draft changes of 11.9 meters to 7 metres?suggested a cargo discharge. The purpose of these transfers could not be determined. Some vessels are linked to Iranian-linked networks of trading that Russia also uses. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Guinea-flagged Aether in 2025 and the Madagascar-flagged Briont in 2025 because of their links to Hossein Shamkhani's network, the son a former Iranian Supreme leader advisor.

SynMax discovered that both vessels showed irregular tracking behavior. Aether transmitted intermittently from the beginning of January, and Briont broadcast under another vessel’s identity starting in mid-January. Could not determine the cause of the intermittent location data.

One source said that Syria used these transfers partly because officials were familiarized with the logistics networks after being excluded for years from the normal shipping networks.

Other ships that unload in Syria seem to be more closely linked to Russian logistic. According to two different analyses conducted by the intelligence firms Lloyd's List & Kharon, both Oman-flagged Carma & Lynx were owned by an UAE-based company that is linked to Russia's Sovcomflot state shipping giant. According to two separate analyses by intelligence firms Lloyd's List and Kharon, the Comoros flagged Grinch was detained by France back in February. The U.S. & EU have been sanctioning it since last year because of its links with Russia's oil exporting fleet from Murmansk. Could not independently verify ownership of the ships.

Noam Raydan is a maritime and energy analyst with the Washington Institute. He warned that it's not just about Syria paying for and getting its oil.

She said: "The question is, who are the sanctioned players that benefit from this trade?" (Written by Feras Dalatey; edited by Frank Jack Daniel

(source: Reuters)