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Trump tightens waiver rules for the defense supply chain
The executive order signed by President Donald Trump Monday will make it more difficult for U.S. Defense contractors to obtain waivers that would allow them to purchase critical minerals and materials from China and other banned?foreign?suppliers. This is the latest effort of the Trump administration to reduce reliance on overseas supply chain for weapons production. Defense contractors will now have to prove much more than that Chinese suppliers are the cheapest or easiest option. Companies seeking a waiver must prove that they have searched for 'alternatives', explain the source of their materials and present a plan on how to get away from prohibited suppliers. Contractors who don't do enough to source locally will lose their contracts. "No more": "We tried nothing and are out of options", White House advisor Peter Navarro said to reporters during a press briefing held before the executive order's release. The Pentagon is pushing defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin and Boeing towards rapid expansion of weapons production, while still facing persistent vulnerabilities within the supply chains which feed the U.S. Military. Many of the critical minerals, processed materials, and advanced systems used in missiles and aircraft still depend on Chinese suppliers. This leaves companies trapped between the demands to move?away from Beijing and needing to keep weapons flowing into U.S. forces. The executive order also directs the Pentagon to develop rules requiring contractors to map critical supply chains from raw materials to finished military products. Companies will have to provide the source of components, minerals, software and other inputs that are used in certain weapons systems. This extends government visibility beyond prime contractors, to lower-tier providers. This is not paper work. "This is not paperwork," Navarro said. He argued that the Pentagon 'needs to be aware if missile systems -or other platforms- are dependent on foreign-controlled suppliers – before a war begins. Contractors are also required to evaluate suppliers' foreign ownership, financial vulnerabilities, and manufacturing risks. They must replace any suppliers who are deemed unreliable.
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Rate hike bets and US-Iran escalated oil prices have caused gold to fall.
Gold prices fell on Monday due to the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran. This also affected U.S. rates of interest. As of 2:50 pm EDT (1850 GMT), spot gold was down by 0.2%. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery settled at $4,015.90, down around 0.1%. The yields on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note increased by 0.4%. The U.S. Dollar was up by 0.2% making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed they struck U.S. assets in the Middle East after another night of U.S. bombing of Iranian cities. Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis also declared a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia. Brent crude oil prices are up after reaching a month-high, fueling inflation fears and stoking bets that interest rates will continue to rise. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of this non-yielding investment. David Meger is the director of metals at High Ridge Futures. He said that "higher energy prices are still in focus" as the escalation of tensions in the Middle East adds to the concern that the Fed's less than expected data on inflation last week may not be sufficient to prevent them from raising rates this year. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has added her voice in a growing chorus that believes interest rates need to be raised to fight persistent inflation. This will set up a heated debate at the Fed’s next meeting, and could lead to disagreements during Kevin 'Warsh's 2nd meeting as the central bank chairman. According to CME FedWatch, traders now expect an interest rate increase in the U.S. by December. This is up from 73% last week. "We anticipate that the Fed won't raise rates until later in this year. We expect them to use balance sheet adjustments. Meger stated that we believe the realization of the situation?in the next month or two will actually add support to the gold market, and put pressure on the dollar. Other than that, silver spot gained 1.2%, to $56.55 an ounce. Platinum was up by 0.1%, at $1,592.86, while palladium rose by 0.9%, to $1,258,83. (Reporting and editing by Leroy Leo, Shailesh Kumar and Vedika Thorat in Bengaluru)
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Oil and semi-stocks are up, as is the price of equities.
The global stock index rose on Monday, as chipmaker stocks recovered from their recent sharp declines. Oil prices also increased slightly with investors cautious about the Gulf developments. Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis have declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia. Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that mediators have presented "proposals", signaling diplomatic contacts are still active. However, it did not provide any details. U.S. crude climbed 0.15%, to $82.61, and Brent rose 0.6% to $88.63 a barrel. Since the start of the U.S. - Iran conflict on February 28, higher oil prices have been a concern for both consumers and businesses. After last week's pullback in chip stocks, the equities have largely stabilized. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, New York. He said that he was seeing some semiconductor stocks recover. The semiconductor index was up 1.5% on Saturday after it ended Friday more than 20 percent below its record-breaking high from late June. This confirms that the market is in a downturn. Oil prices are also a factor. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 158.80?points, or 0.30%?to 51,987.62. The S&P 500 rose 18?40 points or 0.25% to 7,476.09, and the Nasdaq Composite grew 141.45?points, or 0.55%?to 25,661.70. The U.S. earnings season is picking up speed, as several major companies including Intel and IBM are due to release results. Earnings will either confirm or contradict this year's gains. This has been driven by an increase in AI capital expenditure, which is seen as a boon for semiconductor stocks and companies. This season will give us some insights into the AI trade, which includes chipmakers. It will also shed more light on the secondary effects of war. U.S. Treasury Yields rose as traders considered the impact of escalating prices for oil, driven by the war with Iran. Futures markets have priced in at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike before year's end. On Monday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury was at 4.56% - up 2 basis points. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 6.28 basis points from 4.541% to 4.604% late on Friday. Dollar rose as investors watched developments in the Iran War, and the pound dropped from its earlier highs as the markets prepared for the new British Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Sterling fell 0.26%, to $1.3418. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.15%, to?100.98. Meanwhile, the euro fell by 0.25%, to $1.141. U.S. Natural?gas Futures fell about 1% due to rising production, a drop in exports of liquefied gas, and forecasts that demand will be lower this week than expected. (Reporting from Caroline Valetkevitch and Alun John, in New York; additional reporting from Wayne Cole, in Sydney; editing by Sharon Singleton and Jan Harvey)
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Smoke lingers on parts of the US as wildfires in Ontario expand
Wildfires in Ontario have grown from 650,000 to 735,000 acres (1.8 million hectares) since the weekend. Premier Doug Ford announced this on Monday. The air quality in Ontario has improved, but remains unhealthy in some parts of the U.S. Midwest. Ford stated at a Toronto press conference that the province was battling 190 active fires. Around 1,800 residents were evacuated from sparsely-populated communities in northwest?Ontario. Ford stated, "We won't spare a dime in fighting these fires or keeping the people safe." Wildfires in Canada, which mostly occur in areas that are difficult to access, have led to tensions between Canada, the U.S. and some politicians who have criticized Canada for its response. The smoke from wildfires in Ontario, Minnesota and northern Canada caused the worst air pollution ever to reach Toronto last week. It then spread to New York City and Washington. The air quality has improved since then in Southern Ontario, the U.S. Northeast, and the Mid-Atlantic. However, it remains poor in some U.S. states in the Midwest. As of 11:15 a.m. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s AirNow website rated air quality in a region that includes parts of Wisconsin and Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri and Illinois as “unhealthy” or “unhealthy for groups sensitive to the air”. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that Mark Carney, Canadian prime minister at the time of his visit to Washington on Sunday told him that Canada needed to do more in order for it control wildfires in Ontario. Trump claimed that he discussed the matter with?Carney at the FIFA World Cup Final, which both of them attended Sunday. This was two days after Trump threatened to levy extra tariffs on Canadian products to punish 'Canada for the wildfire smoke. Carney hasn't directly replied to Trump. However, he did say that?all countries include the United States. Climate change must be addressed more. Ford called it "inacceptable" that Trump chose to criticize Canada’s response to wildfires and threaten tariffs instead of sending help. He said that Ontario would send hydro workers to the U.S. to assist with Hurricane Helene in 2024 and water bombers in California to combat wildfires in California in 2025, as proof of Canadian support during natural disasters. Ford said, "Instead of criticizing and threatening Canada, your closest allies, perhaps one day you will need our help." Canada is home to some of world's biggest forests. Major forest fires are now a common occurrence. Experts say that rising temperatures are causing drier wood and an increased risk of fire. (Reporting and editing by Mark Porter in Toronto, with Ryan Patrick Jones reporting from Toronto)
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Investors' gold prices remain stable as they weigh US-Iran developments and Fed signals
Investors assessed 'developments in the escalating U.S. - Iran?conflict which?lifted?energy prices and clouded U.S. rate outlooks. As of 11:47 am EDT (1547 GMT), spot gold was down by 0.1% to $4,014.39 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were unchanged at $4,019.00. The yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes increased by 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar was up by 0.3% making gold more expensive for overseas buyers. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed they had attacked U.S. military equipment across the Middle East?after another night's bombardment by the U.S. of Iranian cities?while Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis announced a naval blocade against Saudi Arabia? Brent crude oil prices have stabilized after reaching a high of more than a month, fueling inflation fears and increasing bets on higher interest rates for longer. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of the non-yielding investment. David Meger is the director of metals at High Ridge Futures. He said that "higher energy prices are still in focus" as the escalation of tensions in the Middle East adds to the concern that the Fed's less than expected data on inflation last week may not be sufficient to prevent them from raising rates this year. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has added her voice in a growing chorus that believes interest rates need to be raised to combat persistent inflation. This will set up a heated debate at the Fed’s next meeting, and possibly dissents during Kevin Warsh's 2nd meeting as chairman of the central bank. According to CME FedWatch, traders now expect an interest rate increase in the U.S. by December. This is up from?73% last Friday. "We anticipate that the Fed will not raise rates until later in this year. We expect them to use balance sheet adjustments. Meger stated that we believe the realization of this will add some'support' to the gold price and put pressure on the dollar in the next month or two. Other metals such as palladium, platinum, and silver also saw gains. Palladium gained 1.6%, while spot silver rose 2%. (Reporting and editing by Noel John in Bengaluru, Vedika Thorat)
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Zinc prices expected to decline in 2026 due to weak demand and supply concerns
Analysts predict that zinc prices will fall from their recent highs in the remainder of the year, as a lacklustre supply offsets the disruptions to demand. Due to the 'tight ores supply' and smelter losses, the metal used to galvanise steel will be up by more than 13% in 2026 on London Metal Exchange. Zinc, which outperformed copper, nickel, lead, and aluminium last month, reached its highest level in nearly four years, at $3,658 a metric ton. Tighter-than-expected supply has prompted analysts to revise up their 2026 price forecasts, but while they see zinc remaining elevated in the second half of ?the year, they don't expect it to hold on to current levels above $3,500. Tom Price, Panmure Liberum analyst, said that China's production of steel in 2026 will be lower than its five- to six-year rolling average. Price said that if steel production falls, it will be a primary driver of demand for zinc. He believes the metal could drop to $3,100 per ton by the end of the fourth quarter. BMI, an arm of Fitch Solutions, predicts that zinc prices will drop further, to $3,000, by the end of this year, due to the long-term positioning caused by an explosion and fire at Kazzinc’s smelter in May, as well as a fire at Nexa Resources’ Cajamarquilla facility. BMI stated in a report that "prices will likely ease from their current levels, as the headline-driven premium associated with recent supply disruptions diminishes and?the market moves to a narrow surplus." This year, the market is estimated at 14 million tons. Jonathan Leng is Wood Mackenzie’s research director of zinc markets. He expects the price to drop to $3,350 at end-2026 with a global demand growth rate of only 0.9%. He still predicts an 80,000 ton deficit, and warns LME Zinc stocks Just over 100,000 tons is?only a thin cushion. Leng stated that "if there is any further disruption in smelting, we could see a spike higher." Leng stated that the recent opening of the arbitrage windows to ship zinc from Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses to LME could lower LME prices. ShFE zinc stocks Shanghai zinc has increased by less than 3% in the past year, despite being at a record high.
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Investors' gold prices remain stable as they weigh US-Iran developments and Fed signals
?Gold held firm on 'Monday as investors assessed the escalating 'U.S.-Iran Conflict, which boosted energy prices and clouded prospects for U.S. Interest Rates. As of 9:25 am EDT (1325 GMT), spot gold was down by 0.1%, at $4,011.96 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.1% to $4015.80. The yields on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note increased by 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar was up by 0.1%, making bullion prices more expensive for foreign buyers. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed they had attacked U.S. military equipment across the Middle East, after another night of U.S. bombing of Iranian cities. Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis also declared a?naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. Brent crude oil prices have stabilized after reaching a high of more than a month, fueling inflation fears and?betting on higher interest rates for longer. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates can reduce its appeal. David Meger is the director of metals at High Ridge Futures. He said that "higher energy prices are still in focus" as the escalation of tensions in the Middle East adds to the concern that the Fed's less than expected data on inflation last week may not be sufficient to prevent them from raising rates this year. Cleveland - Fed President Beth Hammack has added her voice in a growing chorus that believes interest rates need to be raised to combat persistent inflation. This will set up a heated debate at the Fed meeting next week and could lead to dissensions during Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as chairman of the central bank. According to CME FedWatch, traders now expect an interest rate increase in the U.S. by December. This is up from?73% a week ago. "We expect the Fed to use balance sheet adjustments, and not raise rates until later in this year. Meger stated that we believe the'realization' of this will actually add some support to the gold price and pressure on the dollar in the next month or two. Other than that, silver spot gained 1.7%, to $56.87 an ounce. Platinum was down by 0.3%, at $1,586.21 and palladium climbed 1.3%, to $1,264.34. (Reporting from Noel John in Bengaluru and Vedika Thorat; editing by Leroy Leo).
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India's infrastructure production rises by 5% in June, according to a new series
India's infrastructure production grew by?5% in June, the fastest pace in five months. The data was released as part of a new series that uses?2022-23 for the base year. The government released a new series on Monday, replacing the 2011-12 base years and expanding the core sector basket from eight industries to nine, including iron ore. According to the latest data from the government, infrastructure output grew by a revised 3.2% compared to a year earlier in May. The revised series shows that it grew faster than 5.2% last in January. KEY NUMBERS * The Cement production rose by 9.8% in June, compared to an 8.4% rise in May. * The?production of steel?increased by 4.6%?last month compared to an increase of 5.1% in May, which was revised. * Electricity production increased 9.8% in June compared to an increase of 11.2% in May, which was revised. * The coal production increased by 1.4% in the month of June compared with a 9.5% fall that was revised for the previous month. *?Iron Ore Production rose 43.9% from a revised 19% increase in May. * Crude oil production fell by 4.2% in June. This is the same as in May, when it was revised down. * Fertiliser output fell 3.3% in June after a revised 1% decline in May. *?Natural Gas Production shrank 7.4% in July, compared to an earlier revised decline of 5%. * The output of refinery products fell by 4.7% in June, compared to a fall of 8.2% a month earlier. * The growth in infrastructure output for April-June was 3.6%, compared to a revised 1.0% during the same period last year. (Reporting and editing by Eileen Soreng, Sarita Chaganti-Singh, and Shivangi-Acharya)
Syria still relies on Russian oil despite pivot towards the West
Reporting shows that Russia is now the largest oil supplier to Syria despite the alignment of the new government with the West, and despite widespread mistrust of Moscow due to its military support of the fallen leader Bashar Al-Assad.
The reporting found that oil shipments from Russia jumped by 75% this year to about 60,000 barges per day, based upon calculations of official announcements, and data from ship tracking on LSEG MarineTraffic, and Shipnext.
These volumes are a small part of the daily oil exports from Russia.
The flows will make Russia the dominant crude supplier in Syria after the fall of Assad, December 2024. This is replacing Iran, which was a major ally of the ousted president during the 14-year civil conflict.
This dynamic shows how limited Syria's options are. Even though Syria emerged from the war with a Western leaning economy, it is not firmly?integrated in the global financial system.
Three Syrian officials and two analysts said that the trade was a reflection of economic necessity for Damascus. It also gave Moscow influence over a country in which it still has two air and naval bases.
Officials who spoke under condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive issues said that the relationship with Russia could strain ties between the EU and Washington. However, Damascus has limited options at the moment.
According to Syrian economist Karam Shar, the trade could also expose Syria's energy industry to new Western sanctions.
Shaar added that the Syrian government is aware of the risks, and is looking for alternatives suppliers.
A representative of the state-owned Syrian Petroleum Company (SPC), said that Damascus is trying to diversify its suppliers and has, to date, unsuccessfully sought an oil agreement with Turkey, a country close to Sharaa's government.
SynMax, a maritime analytics firm, said that financial constraints, commercial risk and years of conflict have limited Syria's ability to access conventional tanker operators. This leaves Russian-linked networks as the only viable option.
SynMax stated in a press release that "these shipping networks?could pose reputational challenges to Syria as it seeks re-establish its commercial credibility." However, the statement noted that "a shift to conventional international supply chain is unlikely to happen immediately."
The Russian or Syrian energy ministries did not respond to comments. The U.S. State Department refused to comment on Syria’s oil trade with Russia.
The U.S. Treasury issued temporary waivers to countries that have already purchased sanctioned Russian oil or petroleum products at sea.
The Ministry of Information in Syria, which deals with media requests for Sharaa's Office, did not either respond.
Officials from the Syrian Energy Ministry said that Syria's dependence on Russian oil was also due to its limited market size, weak purchasing power and difficulty in securing long-term contracts.
In March 2013, the Central Bank of Syria reactivated their account with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, allowing them to communicate more widely with the global financial systems for the first since 2011. RUSSIA IS FIRST TO SEND OIL FOLLOWING ASSAD'S FALL
According to Kpler and an official, Russia was the first country to send a cargo to Syria following the fall of Assad. It went on to ship 16.8 million barrels by 2025 –?about 46,000 barley per day – through 19 cargoes between February 28th and December 31st.
Calculations show that this has increased to 60,000 barrels a day. The names of 21 vessels that arrive in Syrian ports almost weekly from Russia were tracked. All of the vessels are under Western sanctions.
The rise is a "sharp departure" from the previous years. Iran was Syria’s main crude supplier until 2025. Russia’s contribution was limited to occasional diesel deliveries. Kpler data indicates that in 2024, all crude imports - approximately 22.2 million barrels – came from Iran. This was after Assad fell. Although the government has regained control of oilfields in eastern Syria, production is still limited. Al-Omar, the country's biggest oil field in Deir-Ezzor, produces 5,000 barrels of crude oil per day. Total domestic production was 35,000 bpd by 2025. This is far below the 350,000 bpd levels that existed before war. According to officials from the Syrian Petroleum Company, and the energy ministry, Syria's daily fuel and oil needs are between 120,000 and 150.000 barrels. Additional volumes, estimated by officials as around 50,000 bpd, are smuggled in from Lebanon, which imports crude oil from many sources, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.
The Russian shipments have covered the gap of approximately a third of the domestic demand. These contracts were purchased at a discounted price to Brent crude benchmark prices before the Iran War. An official from the Syrian Company for Oil Transport who is familiar with these contracts confirmed that the contracts were purchased prior to the Iran War.
Syrian authorities announce when oil shipments arrive in state media outlets but don't disclose their origin. This is because they are aware that Russia has a low level of popularity in Syria due to its military support for Assad.
The government only identified one delivery, from an ally Saudi Arabia. It was described as a gift.
Syrian officials admit that the fates of Russian bases are often discussed between Damascus, and Western capitals.
In an April post on X, U.S. Republican Congressman Joe Wilson stated that Syria should "do the right thing" and do what the majority in Syria supports and remove the bases.
SANCTIONED VESSELS
LSEG data show that at Syria's Mediterranean Terminals, trade is handled through a rotating tanker fleet linked to Russia's network sanctioned or risky tankers. These vessels operate under multiple flags such as Panama, Liberia Marshall Islands, Comoros Madagascar Oman, Russia and Liberia.
According to SynMax, ship-to-ship transfer is a part of the supply chain, and it's often done near Greece, Cyprus, or Egypt.
These transfers of?oil by sea, rather than a direct unloading at port, are often used to cut transportation costs or to avoid sanctions by concealing the origin and owner of cargo.
The ship-to-ship operation indicates that the United States does not completely turn a blind-eye to these activities and that at least some of these shipments are being concealed by the Syrian and Russian authorities, said Shaar, an economist.
SynMax reports that the Albarraq Z, a ship flying the flag of the Comoros, which was sanctioned in January by the U.S. for alleged links to Iran-backed Houthi network, took on oil through three transfers at sea. The ships had left Russian port before anchoring near Tartous in Syria, where drafts from 11.9 meters to 7 metres suggested cargo 'discharge. The purpose of the transfers could not be determined.
Some vessels are linked to Iranian-linked networks of trading that Russia also uses. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Guinea-flagged Aether in 2025 and the Madagascar-flagged Briont in 2025 because of their links to Hossein Shamkhani's network, the son a former Iranian Supreme leader advisor.
SynMax discovered that both vessels displayed irregular tracking behavior. Aether transmitted intermittently from early January, and?Briont began broadcasting using the identity of another vessel from mid-January. This was despite their routes pointing to deliveries from Novorossiysk, to?Syria. Could not determine the cause of the intermittent location data.
One source said that Syria used these transfers partly because officials are familiar with them after being excluded from the normal shipping networks for years.
Other ships that unload in Syria seem to be more closely linked to Russian logistic. According to two separate analyses conducted by the intelligence firms Lloyd's List & Kharon, both Carma and Lynx flying Oman's flag are owned by an UAE-based company that is linked to Russia's Sovcomflot state shipping giant.
Since last year, the U.S. and EU have sanctioned the Comoros flagged Grinch – detained by France this February – for its links with Russia's oil exporting fleet from Murmansk. Could not independently verify ownership of the ships.
Noam Raydan is a maritime and energy analyst with the Washington Institute. He warned that it's not just about Syria paying for and getting its oil.
She said: "The question is, who are the sanctioned players that benefit from this trade?" (Written by Feras Dalatey; edited by Frank Jack Daniel
(source: Reuters)