Syria still relies on Russian oil despite pivot towards the West

Reporting shows that Russia is now the largest oil supplier to Syria despite the alignment of the new government with the West, and despite widespread mistrust of Moscow due to its military support of the fallen leader Bashar Al-Assad.

The reporting found that oil shipments from Russia jumped by 75% this year to about 60,000 barges per day, based upon calculations of official announcements, and data from ship tracking on LSEG MarineTraffic, and Shipnext.

These volumes are a small part of the daily oil exports from Russia.

The flows will make Russia the dominant crude supplier in Syria after the fall of Assad, December 2024. This is replacing Iran, which was a major ally of the ousted president during the 14-year civil conflict.

This dynamic shows how limited Syria's options are. Even though Syria emerged from the war with a Western leaning economy, it is not firmly?integrated in the global financial system.

Three Syrian officials and two analysts said that the trade was a reflection of economic necessity for Damascus. It also gave Moscow influence over a country in which it still has two air and naval bases.

Officials who spoke under condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive issues said that the relationship with Russia could strain ties between the EU and Washington. However, Damascus has limited options at the moment.

According to Syrian economist Karam Shar, the trade could also expose Syria's energy industry to new Western sanctions.

Shaar added that the Syrian government is aware of the risks, and is looking for alternatives suppliers.

A representative of the state-owned Syrian Petroleum Company (SPC), said that Damascus is trying to diversify its suppliers and has, to date, unsuccessfully sought an oil agreement with Turkey, a country close to Sharaa's government.

SynMax, a maritime analytics firm, said that financial constraints, commercial risk and years of conflict have limited Syria's ability to access conventional tanker operators. This leaves Russian-linked networks as the only viable option.

SynMax stated in a press release that "these shipping networks?could pose reputational challenges to Syria as it seeks re-establish its commercial credibility." However, the statement noted that "a shift to conventional international supply chain is unlikely to happen immediately."

The Russian or Syrian energy ministries did not respond to comments. The U.S. State Department refused to comment on Syria’s oil trade with Russia.

The U.S. Treasury issued temporary waivers to countries that have already purchased sanctioned Russian oil or petroleum products at sea.

The Ministry of Information in Syria, which deals with media requests for Sharaa's Office, did not either respond.

Officials from the Syrian Energy Ministry said that Syria's dependence on Russian oil was also due to its limited market size, weak purchasing power and difficulty in securing long-term contracts.

In March 2013, the Central Bank of Syria reactivated their account with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, allowing them to communicate more widely with the global financial systems for the first since 2011. RUSSIA IS FIRST TO SEND OIL FOLLOWING ASSAD'S FALL

According to Kpler and an official, Russia was the first country to send a cargo to Syria following the fall of Assad. It went on to ship 16.8 million barrels by 2025 –?about 46,000 barley per day – through 19 cargoes between February 28th and December 31st.

Calculations show that this has increased to 60,000 barrels a day. The names of 21 vessels that arrive in Syrian ports almost weekly from Russia were tracked. All of the vessels are under Western sanctions.

The rise is a "sharp departure" from the previous years. Iran was Syria’s main crude supplier until 2025. Russia’s contribution was limited to occasional diesel deliveries. Kpler data indicates that in 2024, all crude imports - approximately 22.2 million barrels – came from Iran. This was after Assad fell. Although the government has regained control of oilfields in eastern Syria, production is still limited. Al-Omar, the country's biggest oil field in Deir-Ezzor, produces 5,000 barrels of crude oil per day. Total domestic production was 35,000 bpd by 2025. This is far below the 350,000 bpd levels that existed before war. According to officials from the Syrian Petroleum Company, and the energy ministry, Syria's daily fuel and oil needs are between 120,000 and 150.000 barrels. Additional volumes, estimated by officials as around 50,000 bpd, are smuggled in from Lebanon, which imports crude oil from many sources, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.

The Russian shipments have covered the gap of approximately a third of the domestic demand. These contracts were purchased at a discounted price to Brent crude benchmark prices before the Iran War. An official from the Syrian Company for Oil Transport who is familiar with these contracts confirmed that the contracts were purchased prior to the Iran War.

Syrian authorities announce when oil shipments arrive in state media outlets but don't disclose their origin. This is because they are aware that Russia has a low level of popularity in Syria due to its military support for Assad.

The government only identified one delivery, from an ally Saudi Arabia. It was described as a gift.

Syrian officials admit that the fates of Russian bases are often discussed between Damascus, and Western capitals.

In an April post on X, U.S. Republican Congressman Joe Wilson stated that Syria should "do the right thing" and do what the majority in Syria supports and remove the bases.

SANCTIONED VESSELS

LSEG data show that at Syria's Mediterranean Terminals, trade is handled through a rotating tanker fleet linked to Russia's network sanctioned or risky tankers. These vessels operate under multiple flags such as Panama, Liberia Marshall Islands, Comoros Madagascar Oman, Russia and Liberia.

According to SynMax, ship-to-ship transfer is a part of the supply chain, and it's often done near Greece, Cyprus, or Egypt.

These transfers of?oil by sea, rather than a direct unloading at port, are often used to cut transportation costs or to avoid sanctions by concealing the origin and owner of cargo.

The ship-to-ship operation indicates that the United States does not completely turn a blind-eye to these activities and that at least some of these shipments are being concealed by the Syrian and Russian authorities, said Shaar, an economist.

SynMax reports that the Albarraq Z, a ship flying the flag of the Comoros, which was sanctioned in January by the U.S. for alleged links to Iran-backed Houthi network, took on oil through three transfers at sea. The ships had left Russian port before anchoring near Tartous in Syria, where drafts from 11.9 meters to 7 metres suggested cargo 'discharge. The purpose of the transfers could not be determined.

Some vessels are linked to Iranian-linked networks of trading that Russia also uses. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Guinea-flagged Aether in 2025 and the Madagascar-flagged Briont in 2025 because of their links to Hossein Shamkhani's network, the son a former Iranian Supreme leader advisor.

SynMax discovered that both vessels displayed irregular tracking behavior. Aether transmitted intermittently from early January, and?Briont began broadcasting using the identity of another vessel from mid-January. This was despite their routes pointing to deliveries from Novorossiysk, to?Syria. Could not determine the cause of the intermittent location data.

One source said that Syria used these transfers partly because officials are familiar with them after being excluded from the normal shipping networks for years.

Other ships that unload in Syria seem to be more closely linked to Russian logistic. According to two separate analyses conducted by the intelligence firms Lloyd's List & Kharon, both Carma and Lynx flying Oman's flag are owned by an UAE-based company that is linked to Russia's Sovcomflot state shipping giant.

Since last year, the U.S. and EU have sanctioned the Comoros flagged Grinch – detained by France this February – for its links with Russia's oil exporting fleet from Murmansk. Could not independently verify ownership of the ships.

Noam Raydan is a maritime and energy analyst with the Washington Institute. He warned that it's not just about Syria paying for and getting its oil.

She said: "The question is, who are the sanctioned players that benefit from this trade?" (Written by Feras Dalatey; edited by Frank Jack Daniel

(source: Reuters)