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The US-Iran conflict is heading towards a pivotal deadline with no end in sight

The U.S. president Donald Trump has until Friday to either end the Iran War or "make the case" to Congress to extend it. But the deadline is unlikely to change the course of the conflict, which has devolved into a "standoff" over shipping routes.

It is highly unlikely that the war will be ended.

Analysts and congressional aides expect Trump to inform Congress of his plans to extend the deadline by 30 days or ignore it altogether. His administration will argue that the current ceasefire agreement with Tehran marks the end of the conflict.

War powers are deeply partisan. Like many policies in an acrimonious divided Congress, opposition Democrats have called for Congress to assert its constitutional right of declaring war, while Republicans accuse Democrats of using the War Powers Act to weaken Trump.

Since the beginning of the war on February 28, Democrats have repeatedly tried to pass resolutions that would force Trump to withdraw U.S. troops or get congressional approval. Trump's Republicans in the Senate, and House of Representatives who have slim majorities, have almost unanimously voted against them.

Republicans blocked the sixth attempt in the Senate Thursday, just a day before the deadline for war powers. Senator Susan Collins, of Maine, had voted against the previous resolutions. She was joined by Senator Rand Paul, of Kentucky, who had backed each of the resolutions.

According to the 1973 War Powers Resolution the president is only allowed to wage military action for 60 days, before ending the operation. He can either seek authorization from Congress or request a 30-day extension if "unavoidable" military necessity for the safety of the United States Armed Forces.

The Iran conflict started on February 28 when Israel and the United States launched airstrikes against Iran. Trump officially notified Congress 48 hours after the start of the conflict, which began the 60-day clock ending May 1.

FIRE FRAIL CEASEFIRE

A U.S. official said that Trump would be briefed on Thursday about plans to launch 'fresh military strikes against Iran in order to force it to negotiate a peaceful end to the conflict.

Trump, if fighting continues, can tell lawmakers that he's started a 60-day countdown. This is something presidents from both parties have done many times since Congress passed the "War Powers Law" over Richard Nixon's then veto in response to Vietnam War.

This conflict was also not authorized by Congress.

A ceasefire announced by Trump on April 7 may have also led the administration to argue that May 1, 2019 is not the deadline. Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense, told Senators on Thursday that he believed the 60-day countdown stopped when a ceasefire was declared.

Democrats denied this, claiming that there is no such provision in war powers legislation.

Iran warned on Thursday, if Washington continued its attacks on Iranian positions, it would respond by launching "long and painful" strikes on U.S. positions. This could complicate Washington's hopes of a coalition of international countries to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Six months before the November elections, which will determine who controls Congress in next year's Congress, polls show that Americans are unpopular with the Iran War.

Trump's approval rating fell to its lowest level in his current term as Americans grew resentful of the rising cost of living, and blamed it on the war.

Trump is still in strong control of his Republican party, and very few Republicans are opposed to his policies. Republicans also strongly support Israel which is also attacking Iran and welcome the weakening Iran as a bitter enemy of the United States.

Christopher Preble said, "It is partisanship plain and simply," a senior fellow with the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank. "Republicans will not defy President Obama, that's it."

'ACTIVE ?CONVERSATIONS'

The White House is yet to announce its plans or whether it will seek congressional authorization for the Iran campaign.

The Hill and the administration are in active discussions on this issue. Members of Congress that try to score points by usurping Commander-in Chief's authority will only undermine the United States Military abroad, which is something no elected official would want to do," said a White House representative on condition of anonymity.

Only Congress and not the President can declare war in the U.S. Constitution. However, this restriction does not apply to short-term operations, or countering an immediate threat.

Some Republicans who voted against the war powers resolutions may change their minds after May 1.

John Curtis, Republican Senator from Utah, wrote an article in which he said he supported Trump’s actions but that he would not support continued military action after the deadline without Congress’ approval.

Some said they would wait and see.

John Thune, South Dakota Senator and Senate Republican Majority Leader, said that it would be "ideal" for Washington and Tehran to reach a peaceful agreement.

Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senate leader from New York, has sponsored resolutions to end war.

"Republicans are aware that Trump's handling this war was a disaster. "They see how much American people are suffering right now," he stated in a Senate address, referring the sharp rises in gasoline prices and other costs.

How many War Powers Resolutions must Democrats introduce before Senate Republicans act? Schumer asked. (Reporting and additional reporting by Steve Holland, Alistair Bell and Don Durfee; editing by Don Durfee)

(source: Reuters)