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MORNING BID CENTRE NEWSLETTER - Trump says war is "very complete" - Iran's ideas are different
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The White House announced that things will soon be back to normal. The global stock market has largely maintained the relief rally which?followed?Monday’s wild swings. However, fears are resurfacing after Iran announced that it would increase its missile attacks. Markets were initially buoyed by President Donald Trump’s claim that the war against Iran is "very complete" - and "could be over soon". This was despite Iranian hardliners rallying behind their new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khmenei, and stating that they would continue to blockade oil. Iran's military shattered the hopes of markets within hours after Trump's remarks. Iran's Revolutionary Guards declared that "we are the ones who determine the end of war". The exchange was brought back to the familiar pace with Trump threatening to strike Iran "TWENTY times harder than they've been hit so far." Brent crude futures dropped as much as 11 % to a low of $88.05 a barrel before reducing their decline to just 4.8%. The stock market has largely held its ground despite signs of risk-taking from retail investors. The Nikkei225 in Japan jumped by 2.1% while the Kospi in South Korea soared up to 6.6%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 2.2% to trim losses since the beginning of the conflict. The rally continued in the early European trade, with DAX German futures gaining 1,0% and FTSE Futures gaining 0.4%. The U.S. equity markets were less active, however. S&P 500 futures?EScv1 fell 0.5%, reversing Monday's gains. Data released on Tuesday showed that China's export growth accelerated in January-February. This puts the second largest economy in the world on track to surpass its $1.2 trillion record trade surplus by 2026. Vietnam's Trade Ministry said that it is again encouraging local businesses to encourage employees to "work from home" - this time to "save on fuel", amid supply disruptions and prices spikes caused by the Iran War. The following are the key developments that may influence Tuesday's markets: Earnings of the company Oracle, Volkswagen, Persimmon, Kohl's Economic Events Germany's trade balance for January Debt auctions: Germany: 2-year government debt
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Trump's de-escalation of the Middle East is predicted to bring oil prices down
Oil prices dropped on Tuesday, after hitting a three-year high in the previous session. U.S. president Donald Trump predicted that the Middle East war could be over soon. This eased concerns about disruptions of global oil supply. Brent futures were down $4.17 or 4.2% to $94.79 per barrel at 0345 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), however, was down $3.81 or 4% to $90.96 per barrel. Both contracts had fallen as much as 11 % earlier, before reversing some of their losses. On Monday, oil prices soared to their highest level since mid-2022 as Saudi Arabia and others cut back on production during the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. This stoked concerns about major disruptions in global supply. According to a Kremlin adviser, prices?reduced after Russian President Vladimir Putin called Trump and shared his proposals for a quick resolution to the Iran War,?easing fears about a long-term supply disruption. Trump told CBS News on Monday that the war against Iran was "very?complete", and that Washington had "very much surpassed" his original estimate of four to five weeks. Trump's remarks about a "short-lived war" have calmed the markets. Suvro Sarkar is the energy sector team leader at DBS Bank. He said that while there was an overreaction yesterday to the upside, today we believe there is an excessive reaction to the downside. "Murban grades and Dubai grades remain well above $100 per barrel, so virtually nothing has changed on the ground," he said, referring Middle Eastern benchmark oil grades. State media, citing a spokesperson for the IRGC, reported that in response to Trump, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said they would “determine the ending of the war” and Tehran would not permit "one litre" of oil to be exported if U.S. or Israeli attacks continue. Multiple sources claim that prices remain under pressure despite Trump's consideration of easing oil sanctions against Russia and releasing emergency crude stockpiles, as part of an?options package aimed at reducing the soaring global oil price, Donald Trump's comments that a conflict might de-escalate and the possibility that G7 countries could tap strategic oil reserves are all pointing to the same message – that oil barrels would somehow continue to reach market, said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sahdeva in a Tuesday note. Oil prices began to fall as soon as traders realized that supply routes could be maintained. The initial "panic premium" that had driven prices above $100 yesterday started to fade. The G7 nations said they were ready to take "necessary" measures in response to the surging oil prices, but did not commit to releasing emergency reserves. (Reporting from Anushree Chow and Emily Chow, both in Singapore; editing by Jamie Freed & Christian Schmollinger).
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Reports from FT say that Mongolia has asked Rio Tinto to change the terms of Oyu Tolgoi Copper Mine.
The Financial Times reported that Mongolia wants to renegotiate "unfair" terms for Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi copper mine worth $18 billion. The newspaper reported that the Mongolian Prime Minister, Gombojavyn Zaandanshatar, warned Rio in a Monday meeting about the "unfairness" of the current deal. He added that the "situation feels like the Mongolians and their parliament are being misled", the paper said. The report stated that Zandanshatar, along with other government officials, will meet Rio executives this week, including head of copper Katie Jackson to discuss the terms of the deal. Mongolia holds 34% of Oyu Tolgoi - one of the largest known copper and gold deposits in the world - while Rio has a 66% share. Rio's largest copper expansion project, the facility began open-pit mine mining in 2011. The FT reported that Mongolia received a multi-billion dollar?loan at a floating rate of interest currently above 11% from Rio Tinto to finance its share in the capital expenditure required to develop the mine. The report stated that the government proposed Rio reduce its interest rate for the loan to less than 6%, and also cut the annual fee charged by the city. It added that Rio could face an increase in export tax rates if the negotiations between the parties fail. Could not verify the report immediately. Rio Tinto didn't immediately respond to a comment request. According to the?website, at peak production,?Oyu Tolgoi will produce 500,000 tons of copper per year. Rio has agreed to waive the $2.4 billion debt that it owes to Oyu Tolgoi in 2022. Both sides have also agreed to "reset their relationship".
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INSTANT VIEW: China's imports of crude oil and iron ore in the first two months have surged.
Customs data showed that China's exports grew faster in January and February, keeping it on track to surpass the $1.2 trillion record trade surplus by 2026. Imports of crude oil and?iron ore also increased in the first half of 2026, compared to a year ago. China combined import data from January and February in order to reduce the impact of the Lunar New Year, which was a week long holiday that fell in February. Table of preliminary data on commodity trade Here are some comments from analysts about the commodity data: PEI HAO is an analyst at?FREIGHT INVESTOR SERVICES in Shanghai: "The growth in China's imports of iron ore was due to the?low base during the same period last years when exports were interrupted by hurricanes in Australia, and?heavy rains in Brazil. Weather conditions in both countries were favourable to begin this year. The steel mill operating rate in the first two month of 2026 was higher than the previous year, which supported a stronger iron ore consumption over the same period. ROSA WANG ANALYST JCI, Shanghai: The arrivals of soybeans in January-February were 1 million metric tonnes higher than expected. This was likely due to U.S. shipments. Arrivals are estimated to be around 6.4 millions tons in March. MUYU XU ANALYST KPLER SINGAPORE Kpler's data showed that China's seaborne oil imports in January were 10.88 million barrels/day, a 2.1 million bpd increase from the previous year. In February, they reached 11.47 million barrels/day, an increase of 1.7 million bpd. "By country the increase in Russian shipments was especially notable. It nearly doubled from a year earlier. The main reason for this was that?India cut back on its purchases and left more cargoes at lower prices available to China. Imports of Iranian crude oil also increased slightly partly because it was cheaper and partly to replace Venezuelan crude.
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Iron ore breaks six-day winning streak due to falling oil prices and swollen inventories
Iron ore futures in Dalian ended six sessions of gains on Tuesday, as oil prices fell and portside inventories increased. This dip may only be temporary as an expected rise in hot metal production is likely to push demand and prices up. As of 0303 GMT, the most-traded contract for May iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.19% lower. It was 780.5 Yuan ($113.35), per metric ton. The benchmark iron ore for April on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.13% to $103.2 per ton. Oil prices fell below $90 Tuesday, after reaching their highest level in over three years the previous session. U.S. president Donald Trump had said that the Middle East war could end soon. This eased concerns about long-term disruptions in global oil supply. The cost of freight and premiums for war risk would be reduced if oil prices fell and the Iran war de-escalated. Customs data revealed on Tuesday that China's imports of iron ore grew 10% over the same period last year. Iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports increased between March 2-8. Portside inventories also grew. According to Mysteel's data, the price of steel is falling. Mysteel said that the same period had seen a drop in weekly shipments from Brazil and Australia. This could have slowed down price declines. After March 11, production restrictions for China's annual parliament meeting will be lifted. This will lead to an increase in demand for steelmaking materials. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, have both fallen in price, by 3.64% apiece. A report by Guoyuan?Futures Research said that coke and coal closely track energy prices and have therefore risen and fallen in tandem with crude oil. Steel benchmarks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell mainly. Hot-rolled coils fell 0.12%, rebar 0.45% and stainless steel 2.05%. Wire rod, meanwhile, advanced by 1.1%. ($1 = 6.8855 Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Ronojojo Mazumdar).
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China's iron ore imports for the first two months of 2018 are up on exports and domestic demand
Customs data showed that China's imports of iron ore in the first two months 2026 increased by 10% compared to a year ago, thanks to stronger exports from Australia, a major supplier, and a higher level of domestic demand. In January and February of this year, the world's biggest iron ore consumer imported 210.02 metric tons. This is up from 191.36 metric tons in previous years. Alexis Ellender is an analyst with the ship tracking firm Kpler. She said that this growth was due to Australia's strong exports in December. China combined import data from January and February in order to smoothen the impact of Lunar New Year, a week-long holiday that fell this year in February. Analysts said that a better domestic demand supported the higher imports of iron ore. Data from Mysteel revealed that the average daily hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, increased by 1.2% compared to a year ago in the first two month of?2026. The average monthly number for January to February is 105.01 millions?tons compared to December's 119.65million tons. Kpler's?Ellender?expects?March?imports of nearly 105?million tons. China's exports of steel in the first two month fell?by 8.1% compared to a year ago, to 15,59?million tonnes. Export licence requirements were cited as a factor that slowed shipment. Beijing announced a plan in December to implement a licensing system from 2026, which will regulate the exports of this metal. This is because robust shipments are fueling a global protectionist backlash. (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Thomas Derpinghaus).
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Trump promises quick Mideast war resolution with aluminium slides
Aluminum prices fell on Tuesday as investors rushed to sell their metals after U.S. president Donald Trump promised a "quick end" to the Middle East war, which eased concerns about the metal's availability. As of 0153 GMT, the most traded aluminium contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 2.88% to 24,465 Yuan ($3,550.95), after reaching its highest level since January 30, when it was 25,860 yuan?per metric ton. Benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange dropped 2.11% to $3 314 per ton. On Monday, the contract reached its highest level since March 2022. It was $3,544 per?ton. Trump promised a swift end to the conflict, while threatening an escalation of the war with Iran if they blocked oil shipments out of the Middle East. The plunge in prices of (aluminum) was mainly caused by Trump's announcement to end the war, said a Chinese businessman under condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to speak to media. The U.S. and Israel war against Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. This disrupted?shipments that accounted for around 9% of the global aluminium supply. Supply fears arose, causing?prices to rocket higher over the last week. ING analysts stated in a 'note' that aluminium is one of the most exposed metals in the region to further escalation, making it vulnerable to a new upward trend on any re-supply shock. SHFE copper increased by 1.73%. Nickel jumped 1.86%. Tin soared 5.29%. Lead dipped by 0.24%. Zinc was not much changed. Copper gained?0.79% among other?LME Metals. Nickel advanced 0.75%. Lead edged up by 0.08%. Zinc added 0.18%. Tin fell 0.31%.
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Egypt increases domestic fuel prices up to 17% amid global oil turmoil
The petroleum ministry announced that Egypt increased prices on a range of fuel products?on Tuesday. This comes as the Middle East continues to be affected by the U.S. and Israeli war?on Iran and the rising price of oil and gas. The ministry released a statement that said, "This is due to the extraordinary situation caused by the geopolitical development in the Middle East and its direct effect on the global energy markets". The decision was made just days after Egyptian Premier Mostafa?Madbouly stated in a presser?on 3rd March that the state could resort to?exceptional measures' if fuel prices rose significantly due to the war. The war in the Middle East has caused the price of oil and gas to rise as it has stopped energy exports. Iran has attacked ships and energy installations, which has forced the closure of the Gulf navigation and production stops?from Qatar and Iraq. The increase of 14%-17% in a variety of petroleum products is the first of this year, and follows a rise of 10.5%-12.9% last October. Egypt announced at the time that it would freeze domestic fuel costs for at least one year. It cited local, regional, and global developments. Diesel, one of Egypt's most popular fuels, has been raised to 20.50 Egyptian Pounds ($0.3887), up from 17.50 Egyptian Pounds. Gasoline prices rose by up to 16.9% depending on the grade. 80 octane gas increased to 20.75 lbs per litre while 92 octane jumped to 22.25 lbs and 95 octane climbed to 24 lbs. Egypt has been able to take on financing with the International Monetary Fund in a back-to-back fashion since 2016. In 2016, it signed a 12-billion-dollar loan program for the purpose of reviving its economy following years of political turmoil that began after the Arab Spring protests. Since then, Washington-based lender has?pushed the government to reduce fuel, electricity, and food subsidies, while expanding social safety nets. Egypt and the IMF agreed to an $8 billion loan program in March 2024.
Trump says he will escalate the strikes if Iran continues its oil blockade.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced on Tuesday that they will not allow "one single litre" of oil to be shipped out of the Middle East as long as U.S. attacks and Israeli attacks continue. This prompted a warning by?President Donald Trump, who said the U.S. could hit Iran harder if it blocks exports from this vital energy producing region.
The increased rhetoric did not stop the sharp decline in crude prices or the rally in global stocks that followed after Trump expressed his confidence in an end to hostilities as soon as possible, even after Iran named Mojtaba Khmenei its new supreme ruler in a defiance signal.
Trump claimed on Monday that the United States has inflicted severe damage to Iran's military. He also predicted the conflict will end much sooner than the four-week timeline he set out. However, he did not specify what victory looks like.
Israel claims that its goal in the war is to topple Iran's clerical system. U.S. officials say Washington's main goal is to destroy Iran’s missile capability and nuclear program, but Trump said that the war could only end with a compliant Iranian regime.
According to Iran's U.N. Ambassador, at least 1,332 Iranian civilians have been killed and thousands injured since the U.S. launched an air and missile strike across Iran in late February.
Trump warned that U.S. strikes could increase if Iran attempted to block tanker traffic through Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is responsible for one-fifth of world oil supplies.
Trump stated at a Monday news conference that "we will hit them so badly that they or anyone else helping them will never be able to recover that part of the world."
IRAN SAYS THAT IT WILL DETERMINE THE END OF WAR
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran said that it would not permit any oil to be exported from the region as long as the United States or Israel continued their attacks.
According to state media, a spokesperson claimed that Trump's remarks were "nonsense".
In a subsequent Truth Social post Trump reiterated his warning.
He said that if Iran did anything to stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz they would be hit by the United States of America a whopping TWENTY times harder than they had been hit so far.
Abbas Araqchi, Iran's foreign minister, said that Iran is unlikely to continue negotiations with the U.S. citing what he called a "bitter" experience with previous talks.
"After three rounds, the American delegation in the negotiations said that we had made significant progress. They still decided to attack. "I don't believe that talking to Americans would be on the agenda anymore," he told PBS in an interview.
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed by the war, preventing tankers from sailing for over a week. Producers have also had to stop pumping oil as storage facilities are filling up.
Mojtaba Khmenei was appointed on Monday, which seemed to end hopes for a quick end to war. Oil markets surged and share markets plummeted, but then swung in the opposite direction after Trump predicted a "quick end" to war and reported reports of possible sanctions being eased on Russian energy.
Trump announced that after speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin he would waive oil-related restrictions on "some countries" in order to ease the shortage.
Multiple sources claim that this could lead to a further relaxation of sanctions against Russian oil. This could complicate attempts to punish Moscow for the war in Ukraine. Sources said that other options could include the release of oil from strategic reserve or restricting U.S. imports.
Brent crude futures dropped more than 10% after rising as high as?29% Monday, their highest level since 2022. Global stock markets have also rebounded.
In the United States, the price of gasoline is a major political issue. Voters are concerned about rising prices ahead of November's midterm elections when Trump and his Republicans will be trying to maintain control of Congress.
A poll conducted by /Ipsos on Monday revealed that 67% of Americans believe gas prices will rise in the next few months. Only 29% of Americans approve of the war.
One Los Angeles driver called the current gas prices "horrible". They're expensive, high, and just plain?high. You sometimes have to decide between gas and things you need.
OIL REFINERY HIT
Tehran was engulfed in black smoke following an attack on an oil refinery. This was an increase in attacks against Iran's energy supply. Tedros Ghebreyesus, the World Health Organization's chief, warned of fire hazards contaminating "foods, water and air".
Turkey reported that NATO air defences shot down a?ballistic missile fired by Iran and entering Turkish airspace. This is the second incident of this kind in the war. Iran has not yet responded to the report.
Israel's military announced that it has launched new attacks on central Iran, and also struck Beirut in Lebanon. Israel said this after Hezbollah, a militia supported by Iran, fired across the border.
Five Iranian women's soccer players who sought asylum in Australia due to fear of persecution in their homeland were granted humanitarian visas. Canberra has also committed to sending military surveillance aircraft and missiles to United Arab Emirates in order to defend them against Iranian attacks.
(source: Reuters)