Latest News

Stocks fall as inflation fears fuelled by Middle East air war increase

Stocks fall as inflation fears fuelled by Middle East air war increase
Stocks fall as inflation fears fuelled by Middle East air war increase

Investors weighed the impact of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and global economic conditions on the energy market and stock prices, and the dollar strengthened on Tuesday.

MSCI's broadest?Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan dropped 1.5%, extending?losses a second time. The drop was led by as much as?4.1% in Korean shares. Tokyo's Nikkei fell 2.3%, and S&P500 e-minis futures dropped 0.6%.

Rupal Agarwal is Asia Quant Strategist at Bernstein, Singapore. "Economic uncertainty was already high and with the Iran conflict the geopolitical risks are expected to increase too," she said. The last time these two factors spiked together was in 2022, during the Russia-Ukraine crisis. This didn't go well for Asian markets.

Wall Street has stabilised following a volatile session Monday. The S&P 500 recovered from an initial selloff and closed flat, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4% after investors bought the dip.

U.S. President Donald Trump tried to justify an open-ended, broad war against Iran by saying that the campaign had exceeded expectations.

An official of Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced on Monday that there is no end in sight to the hostilities and that any ship trying pass the Strait of Hormuz will be fired upon.

The threat immediately impacted the hiring of a supertanker for the shipping of oil from the Middle East into China, pushing up the cost to a new record of over $400,000 aday, according to LSEG.

Brent crude futures rose another 2% on Tuesday to $79.22. On the natural gas market, European and Asian benchmark LNG prices jumped by about 40% on Monday.

Working through the Risk Scenarios

The surge in energy costs could increase the cost of Asian companies, and impact their profits and stocks.

Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a report that a 20% increase in Brent oil could result in regional earnings falling by 2%, with large intraregional variations. However, this is dependent on the length of the conflict. They said that spikes in geopolitical risks tend to have negative effects on the short term, but they dissipate with time. The current increase in geopolitical risks coincides with a regional vulnerability to correction.

Energy prices are on the rise, complicating the Federal Reserve's attempts to control inflation. Policymakers have already shown signs of division over the impact artificial intelligence will have on the U.S. Economy. Secretary of State Rubio announced on Monday that the U.S. will take steps to reduce rising energy costs due to the spike in oil prices caused by the conflict with Iran.

ISM manufacturing data, released on Monday, showed that U.S. activity increased steadily in February. However, a measure of factory gate price soared to a nearly 3-1/2-year-high amid tariffs. This highlighted the upward pressure on inflation, even before U.S. led attacks on Iran.

FedWatch, a tool of the CME Group, shows that Fed funds futures price an implied 97.5% chance that the U.S. Central Bank will remain on hold after its next two-day?meeting on March 18. The odds of the June hold, which were previously less than 50%, increased on Monday to?slightly more than a coin flip.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket containing six major counterparts, was close to a six-week peak at 98.499, as the currency recovered some of its appeal as a haven. The yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was down 1.2 basis point at 4.036%.

In a recent research note, DBS analysts wrote that "current market dynamics only show a mild risk off tone. This is not enough to sustain a strong?bid for U.S. Treasury Bonds or to push the Fed to make faster cuts."

They added that "the conflict raises the spectre stagflation." While energy prices are not at the same levels as they were during the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 investors will likely be watching closely the duration and extent to which energy supplies will be interrupted.

Gold rose 0.6% to $5,358.44. Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $68,399.26 while ether dropped 1.5% to $2,013.07. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter)

(source: Reuters)