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Former world leaders call on EU to maintain a firm stance on climate
Mary Robinson, former president of Ireland, said on Tuesday that a group of former leaders from around the world are urging Europe not to let trade wars or defence spending divert attention away from climate change issues. The Elders, the group created by Nelson Mandela as former South African president, will meet with EU and NATO in late this month to discuss ways to soften upcoming corporate climate disclosure regulations to address concerns about competitiveness. Robinson, Ireland's former president from 1990-97, said that she was concerned about the plans, but that the bloc has an opportunity to seize the leadership of the United States on the fast-growing clean technology market and climate policy in general. She said: "The crisis that has arisen in the United States due to a federal retreat from climate science and everything related is an opportunity for Europe, the United Kingdom and the rest of world." It's important that Europe adheres to its principles and sticks to the green industrial policy. International Energy Agency said that the global market for clean technology such as solar photovoltaics and wind turbines, could grow from $700billion in 2023 to over $2 trillion in 2035. This is close to the value of the crude oil market in the world. Robinson warned Brussels to not let the war between Russia and Ukraine, trade wars or anti-climate rhetoric from U.S. president Donald Trump dictate long-term thinking about climate issues. She also said that many businesses across the EU were willing to and able support the green shift. Robinson will join former Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem-Brundtland, international human rights activist Denis Mukwege and others to urge Brussels to take a leadership role in tackling some of the biggest threats to the world. They will encourage the EU to develop a timely climate action plan. The Elders was founded in 2007. They are advocates for peace, justice and human rights, as well as a sustainable world. Former U.N. secretary general Ban Ki-moon, and former New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark are members of the group. Reporting by Virginia Furness, London. Editing by Matthew Lewis
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Four missing US Army soldiers found dead in Lithuania
The bodies of a fourth U.S. Army Soldier, along with three other soldiers, have been discovered, U.S. officials and Lithuanian officials announced on Tuesday. Three other soldiers were discovered dead after rescuers found the armoured vehicles of the four missing soldiers near the border to Belarus. The body of a fourth U.S. Soldier, who was in Lithuania for training, has been discovered, wrote Lithuanian President Gitanas Nuseda on social media platform X. He offered condolences. White House Press Secretary Karoline leavitt confirmed the fourth death. She told reporters during a White House briefing that U.S. president Donald Trump and his Administration were praying for the victims and families. Nauseda thanked all those who "helped find the last soldier missing in such difficult conditions." Rescuers had spent days Digging to recover The M88 Hercules armored recovery vehicle was used by the soldiers as part of a training exercise at Pabrade, where U.S. troops have been rotating in since 2019. Reporting by Stine Jacobsen and Steve Holland in Copenhagen, and Gram Slattery and Mark Porter in Washington. Editing by Gareth Jones and Susan Heavey.
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Mercedes denies that it may withdraw cheaper cars from the US
Mercedes-Benz has denied a report published by Bloomberg News Tuesday, which claimed that the automaker had considered withdrawing its lowest models from the U.S. in anticipation of a 25% additional tariff on imports. "This report is without merit. Mercedes-Benz is committed to increasing sales of its high-end vehicles, a spokesperson for the company said in an email in response to this report. Bloomberg reported that the automaker is considering removing more entry-level cars from sale in order to prepare for tariff contingencies. Experts in the industry have warned that tariffs to be implemented on April 3 will likely lead to higher prices for consumers and fewer models available. There is not enough margin to absorb tariff costs, especially when it comes to more affordable vehicles targeted at first time buyers. Mercedes-Benz executives said on a Monday investor call that they were building up their inventory in the U.S. wholesale and dealer levels to be ahead of the tariffs. They also discussed further mitigation measures. Reporting by Gursimran in Bengaluru, and Victoria Waldersee. Writing by Maria Martinez. Editing by Shinjini Ganuli and Jan Harvey.
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Study shows that AI will not kill your business, but it can make it stronger
A study conducted at the European Central Bank Conference found that AI can help a company thrive on the long run if it survives the disruption caused by artificial intelligence. The authors of the study, who used survey data and data from the U.S. Census Bureau for the years 2017-2021, found that early adopters in the manufacturing industry saw their productivity decline as they replaced humans with robots. The findings of the researchers contradict the prevailing narrative that AI increases productivity and "augments", rather than automates, many jobs. Kristina MacElheran, a co-author of the paper and a speaker at the conference, said: "In the short run, we see many pains." She explained that the decrease in productivity was a result of AI interfering on established manufacturing practices such as maintaining low inventories. As time went on, these companies began to outperform their competitors in terms of sales, productivity, and employment, provided they were able to survive the turmoil. McElheran said, "Surviving seems to be part of the issue," a researcher from the University of Toronto. She said that this recovery does not happen in older companies which are also larger and "struggle" to achieve this. McElheran, along with his colleagues, studied a sample of 30 000 firms where AI adoption increased from 7.5% to 9% over the period of study. ECB President Christine Lagarde said earlier that between 23% and 29 percent of European workers were highly exposed AI. However, this did not have to herald a 'job apocalypse' because new jobs would be created as old ones were destroyed. (Reporting By Francesco Canepa Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
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Andy Home: Copper market is wary of the US tariffs that will follow.
Since President Donald Trump's February order to investigate U.S. imports of copper, the price of copper has been rising. How long will this last, and how difficult will it be to come down? It's a race to get as much copper through U.S. Customs as possible before tariffs are implemented. Copper tariffs will come, there's no doubt about that. The question is when and at what level? Bets are that the copper levies would be 25 percent, which is the same rate as imposed on steel and aluminum imports. The market believed it had 270-days, which is the maximum time for a Section 232 investigation. It's no longer so sure. The impact of wider reciprocal trade tariffs, due to be announced Wednesday on what Trump has called "Liberation Day", is uncertain. The confusing and conflicting tariff situation has divided market opinion. Some analysts have called for higher copper price, while others warn of an impending crash. 'TRUMP TIME' The CME spot price of copper reached a record high of $5.199 per lb, surpassing its previous peak of $4.199 during the May 20,24 squeeze. The London Metal Exchange cash price only reached $10,100 per ton. This is a far cry from its peak in May 2024 of $10,900. Bloomberg reported that tariffs could be implemented in weeks, not months as expected. This possibility should not have been a surprise. Peter Navarro, White House Trade Advisor, said that at the time the Section 232 announcement was made the investigation would be finished "in Trump's time". The apparent confirmation that "Trump Time" is a thing has left traders confused about the best time to ship physical copper to the U.S. PHYSICAL FLOODS According to Mercuria, up to half a a million tonnes of copper may be headed to the U.S. in order to take advantage of the unprecedented arbitrage opportunities. Will it arrive in time? Physical arbitrage is complicated due to the CME's restrictive list of acceptable delivery brands. Since February's Section 232 declaration, LME stocks have dropped from 258,425 to 106,900 tonnes, and around half the total inventory is now awaiting physical loading-out. The LME's warehouse system is a mix of Chinese and Russian steel, so it's unlikely much of it will reach the U.S. LME stocks are instead diverted to buyers who are willing to exchange the South American brands of copper that dominate the CME list of good-delivery. It may take more time than you think to switch locations and brands in the physical supply chain. BULLS AND BEARS If copper tariffs were to arrive sooner than expected, the pull of copper towards the U.S. could be less strong and last shorter than anticipated. This means that any shortages in other parts of the world will also be less severe than expected. The markets are bracing themselves for the uncertainty that will be caused by the U.S. reciprocal trade tariffs, which are expected to be announced in the coming week. The way micro- and macro-tariffs interact on the copper market has divided opinion. Goldman Sachs remains in the bulls' camp and has maintained its forecasts of LME copper prices for three, six, and twelve months at $9,600 per ton and $10,700. Citi has, on the other hand, cut its short-term forecast of $10,000 per ton to $9,500 and expects an average price of $8,800 for the second half. BNP Paribas is still too optimistic. They predict a price drop to $8,500 a ton as soon as the copper tariffs come into effect and arbitrage trading stops. You're not alone if you have questions about copper. The price outlook is still unclear until Doctor Copper and the rest of the world get more clarity about Trump's tariffs. Do not hold your breath. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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What options does the EU have in response to Trump's tariffs?
The European Commission's President Ursula von der Leyen stated on Tuesday that the European Union has a "strong" plan to retaliate for tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump. However, she preferred a negotiated resolution. Trump's administration imposed tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum in March, and increased duties on automobiles will come into effect on Thursday. Trump will announce plans on Wednesday for what he calls "reciprocal duties". In 2023, the United States and European Union will have the largest trade relationship in the world, with a combined trading volume of 1.6 trillion euro ($1.7 trillion) worth of goods and service. This is almost 30% of all global trade. According to Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency, Washington has more to worry about in a tariff war on goods than Brussels. U.S. imports of goods into the EU will total 334 billion euro by 2024, compared to 532 billion euro of EU exports. Here are some possible EU responses. TARIFFS RETALIATORY The European Commission may propose retaliatory duties on goods. These can only be blocked by a majority of 15 EU members representing 65% or the EU's population. It has already laid out a two-stage response plan to the steel and aluminum tariffs. It says that it will first restore the measures taken in 2018, when Trump first imposed import tariffs for metals. These were later suspended by Joe Biden. The counter-measures were originally due to take effect on Tuesday but were delayed until mid-April by the Commission to give it more time to decide which U.S. products to target. France and Italy, two wine exporters, are concerned about the taxation of bourbon. This comes after Trump had threatened to retaliate by imposing 200% tariffs on European alcohol. The Commission has also drawn up a list of U.S. imported goods, including clothing, meat, dairy products, and wines, worth 21 billion euros. It plans to reduce this to 18 billion euro for the second tranche of tariffs that was originally scheduled to begin in mid-April. The EU has yet to announce what it will do in response either to the new reciprocal taxes or the new automobile tariffs. Anti-coercive Instrument The EU's Anti-Coercion Instrument, which entered into force in 2023, gives the bloc a much wider range of options to act against countries who put economic pressure on EU member states to change their policy. The EU can also limit the access of companies from third countries to tenders or affect services or investment. The United States trades goods with the EU at a deficit, but it trades services at a surplus, which includes digital services like those provided by Amazon, Microsoft or Uber. The EU may also limit the protection of intellectual properties rights, restrict financial services companies' access to EU market and hinder companies' ability place agrifood and chemicals in the EU. ACI was first proposed in 2021 to respond to EU criticisms that the Trump Administration and China used trade as a tool for political purposes. According to Lithuanian officials China targeted Lithuania after it allowed Taiwan set up a virtual embassy in Vilnius. The law allows the Commission to investigate possible cases of coercion for up to four month. If the Commission finds that foreign countries' measures are coercive, it will propose this to EU member states, who have eight to ten weeks to confirm its findings. This requires a majority of EU member states, which is a much higher standard than the one required to apply retaliatory duties. Normaly, the Commission will then consult the foreign country in order to stop the coercion. If this fails, it can then adopt EU response measures within six months, which will enter into force within three months. The entire process could take up to a year. $1 = 0.9275 Euros (Reporting and Editing by Peter Graff, Additional Reporting by Leigh Thomas)
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EU to relax CO2 emission targets for automakers
The European Commission published a proposal on Tuesday to relax the rules. This will give automakers three years to meet the EU CO2 emission targets of 2025 for cars and vans. The European automakers had requested Brussels to ease the targets. These depend on selling more electrical vehicles, an area where they are behind their Chinese and U.S. competitors. According to the changes proposed on Tuesday, compliance with CO2 regulations for 2025 would be based on the average emissions of a carmaker over the period from 2025-2027 rather than only this year. In a press release, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the Commission, said: "With today's announcement, we grant greater flexibility to this sector and, at the same, we remain on track with our climate goals." Von der Leyen promised earlier this month that he would give automakers a "breathing room" regarding the rules, after European auto manufacturers stated the original targets may result in up to $15 billion in fines ($16.2 billion) for the industry if they missed the goals. This year, the tighter EU carbon dioxide emission limits for carmakers came into effect. These require that at least one fifth of all sales from most car companies be electric vehicles. The European Parliament must approve the proposal made on Tuesday to amend the law. EU member states can also propose additional changes. The Czech Republic, which is a major hub for automobile manufacturing, had previously stated that it would push to have a five-year period of compliance. The European auto industry has already been affected by a drop in demand and factory closures. Now, they are bracing themselves for U.S. Tariffs. Volkswagen and Renault have both expressed their support for an extension of the compliance period, but not everyone in the industry has agreed. Volvo Cars - which is owned in majority by Chinese electric vehicle maker Geely - warned against penalizing companies who have invested to ensure they can meet the 2025 targets. E-Mobility Europe, a group representing the electric transport industry in Europe, has warned that changing the CO2 limit for 2025 will further put Europe behind China when it comes to EVs. It also discourages investments in charging infrastructure. The EU has also set a long-term climate goal for all new cars to be sold after 2035, with zero emissions. This effectively ends the sale of new combustion engine vehicles. Some EU legislators and member governments are planning to oppose this target when the policy is reviewed later this year. They claim it will harm already struggling carmakers. The European Commission, however, has refused to change the 2035 goal. It says that this is essential for achieving green goals and ensuring a predictable investment climate over time. $1 = 0.9251 euro (Reporting and editing by Kate Abnett, Philip Blenkinsop)
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South Africa wants to meet with US over auto tariffs
Parks Tau, South Africa's Trade Minister, said that the country will request a meeting with U.S. officials to discuss auto tariffs. The levies are of concern, he added, as South Africa enjoys preferential trading status with the United States. South Africa's exports of parts and vehicles to the United States are estimated at more than $2 billion. A planned 25% tariff on automobile imports announced last week by U.S. president Donald Trump could have a serious impact. Tau stated in a press release that the U.S. The Section 232 Tariffs will be applied to the imports of automobiles and auto parts from South Africa and other countries that are beneficiaries of the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act. AGOA allows eligible African countries to export agricultural products and manufactured goods, including cars and parts, duty-free. Tau stated that "automobile exports from South Africa represented 64% of South Africa’s exports in 2024 under AGOA, and therefore are a significant component for products currently benefitting under the preferential program." The Automotive Production Development Programme in South Africa offers rebates on U.S. imported cars, while South Africa's exports of automobiles to the United States are duty-free. Tau said that South Africa's automobile exports account for just 0.99% of the total U.S. vehicle imports, and 0.27% auto parts. "They do not pose a threat to U.S. Industry", Tau added. Tau stated that "South Africa would seek to meet with United States authorities in order to discuss this development, due the possible negative impact on the South African Economy." NAAMSA, the representative body for South Africa's Automotive Industry has stated that they are actively evaluating the potential impact of tariffs on their industry and engaging with members and key stakeholders. Mercedes-Benz, BMW and other car brands are exported by South Africa to the United States. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton; Nqobile Dudla)
Russell: China and India's reaction to Trump's Russia oil-tariff threat is crucial.
The threat by U.S. president Donald Trump to impose secondary duties of 25 to 50 percent on buyers of Russian crude is so outrageous and bold that it may achieve his stated goal of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.
What is important now is how the other key players react to the latest move of this mercurial, inconsistent U.S. president.
Do Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister NarendraModi, as well as Chinese President Xi Jinping, believe that Trump is going to follow through on his promises? If so, what will this mean for the energy situation of these countries?
India and China are the two largest buyers of Russian crude oil. Their reaction is as important as Putin’s response to Trump’s latest shift.
Trump told NBC News he was "frustrated" with Putin and would impose tariffs up to 50% for buyers of Russian crude if he felt that Moscow was blocking efforts to bring peace to Ukraine.
If Russia and I cannot reach an agreement to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine and if I believe it is Russia's responsibility, then I will impose secondary tariffs on all oil coming out of Russia. Trump said that he would impose secondary tariffs on all Russian oil.
It is a reversal from his previous friendly attitude toward Putin. This had attracted widespread criticism because it was seen as a surrender to Russia and a tacit acceptance of its aggression.
Russia, China, and India have to assess whether Trump's threats are credible and likely.
Putin may back down a little if he believes Trump is going to increase sanctions against Russia's major export.
India is in a difficult position, as Modi's stance has been to try to appease Trump. A proposal to abolish the import duty for U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas in order to increase purchases was an example.
India is also a major beneficiary from the fact that the rest of world has shunned Russian crude. This has allowed the South Asian nation the opportunity to purchase discounted cargoes, so much so that Russia now ranks as its biggest supplier.
According to LSEG Oil Research, India will import 1.52 million barrels of Russian oil per day in March. This represents just over 30% of the total number of arrivals.
India is already forced to buy less oil from Iran due to U.S. sanctions. Replacing Russian barrels would increase the price of Indian oil and force India to look for alternative suppliers.
CHINA RISK
China is less likely than the U.S. to give in to pressure, since it is the sole major buyer of Iranian oil. It is also the top importer for Russian oil.
Beijing faces the risk that a tariff increase of up to 50 percent on U.S. imported goods from China on top of Trump's 20% tariff would cause real pain to its economy. It is already struggling for momentum.
If Trump's threat of secondary duties on buyers of Russian oil is credible, this will also change the dynamics of the OPEC+ exporters group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia.
OPEC+ Members other than Russia will benefit from any price increase resulting from a reduction of Russian barrels. This will enable them to increase production and exports.
It's a fight between self-interest and group solidarity. With the fiscal position of many OPEC+ countries deteriorating, it may be difficult to resist the temptation of earning more money through higher exports.
For the moment, players will likely respond cautiously - at least publicly - as they attempt to determine whether Trump's new tariff threat was a thought balloon easily discarded by the next change in sentiment.
Initial market reactions were subdued. Brent futures, the global benchmark, rose a modest 0.3% in early Asian trading on Monday to $73.84 per barrel.
These are the views of a columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by SonaliPaul)
(source: Reuters)