Latest News

Oil prices fall after Middle East conflict pause, global stocks rise

As tensions in the Middle East eased, oil prices fell sharply and inflation fears were reduced. This was ahead of a busy week of central bank meetings and earnings reports.

Iran announced on Sunday that it would cease?its? own attacks if the United States also did so. The U.S. Military was reportedly worried about the dwindling supply of ammunition. Brent crude fell 6.3% to $90.70 a barrel during the lull of fighting in the Strait of Hormuz, while U.S. Crude dropped 5.7% to $74.12.

On Monday, stock markets around the world staged a relief rally after fighting in the Middle East pushed oil to over $100 per barrel during the last week.

At one point, the STOXX 600 index in Europe climbed by nearly 0.5% and reached its highest level since July 7. Retail and travel stocks, which are sensitive to the economy, rallied by more than 2%. However, a decline in oil stocks hurt the market as a whole.

S&P futures increased by 0.9% while Nasdaq Futures rose 1.5%. The MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan increased by 0.3%.

The euro rose 0.23% to $1.1395. The dollar also gained against most major currencies as traders reduced the likelihood of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in the coming week.

Markets indicate that the U.S. Central Bank's decision will be made on Wednesday. The markets suggest a 1 in 3 chance of an increase, but most analysts do not believe Chair Kevin Warsh is likely to support such a move.

"A rate increase this week would send a powerful message at the beginning of his term, that he's serious about improving the Fed’s credibility in fighting inflation. We are not convinced that he will back up his tough words on inflation this week with policy actions," Lee Hardman said, a senior forex analyst at MUFG.

If inflation risks don't ease over the summer months, it is more likely that a rate hike in September will be necessary.

Both the Bank of England and Bank of Japan are expected to remain cautious in their approach, while maintaining their current policy.

The dollar dropped 0.2% versus the yen, to 163.53.

Earnings from TECH BULLS

Chinese blue-chip stocks gained?1.2% after chipmaker CXMT Corp surged almost 500% in Shanghai's trading debut, following its raising of $8.6 billion through Asia's largest initial public offering.

According to LSEG data, about a third of S&P500 companies will report earnings this week. Earnings are expected to increase by 26.5% over last year.

Even 'blockbuster' results may not satisfy investors, given the high expectations and growing unease about the cost of AI capex.

A Wall Street Journal article reported that Nvidia had been in discussions to provide an estimated $250 billion backstop for OpenAI, as part of a project involving data centers.

This week, companies reporting include tech darlings Microsoft and Meta Platforms as well as Amazon, Apple, Qualcomm and a number of industrial, healthcare and defence stocks.

Highlights of the data include:?U.S. The second quarter GDP is expected to grow at an annualised rate of 1.5%, after a sluggish start to the year. The week's calendar includes the PCE price index for June, personal income, consumption, weekly claims of unemployment, the second quarter employment cost index, and consumer sentiment in July.

The Euro Zone's schedule includes the flash Q2 GDP (Gross Domestic Product), July economic sentiment, consumer confidence and flash inflation.

According to the Ifo Institute survey conducted on Monday, German business morale increased more than expected in August due to significantly better expectations.

The 10-year Treasury yields fell 3.8 basis points, to 4.64%.

The drop in yields has helped gold prices to rise by 0.92%, or $4,090.45 per ounce, on commodity markets. (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates and Sam Holmes; Mrigank Dhaniwala and Wayne Cole)

(source: Reuters)