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Russell: India's rising refined product exports help ease Asia fuel crisis

Can India do the same for Asia's refined fuels market as China did with crude oil? China drastically cut its crude oil imports in June to a 10-year-low in response to the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. This freed up oil for buyers who were struggling to source cargoes due the the effective closing of the 'Strait of Hormuz.

India is taking a different approach, purchasing 'Russian crude' and increasing exports of refined goods to offset the lower shipments coming from Middle East refineries and Russia.

According to commodity analysts Kpler, India's light and middle distillates exports are expected to hit 1.55 million barrels a day (bpd).

The second highest level recorded by Kpler since 2017 is almost twice the 866,000 bpd in May. This was the lowest for nearly four years. It came as a result of the Middle East losing crude oil after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to respond?to U.S. and Israeli attacks launched on February 28, 2018.

India's crude oil imports fell to a 21-month-low of 4,55 million bpd during April. This impacted the ability of India's export-oriented refineries run at full capacity.

India, however, switched to buying Russian crude oil after the Trump Administration lifted sanctions. This allowed importers to buy Russian cargoes openly.

India's imports of Russian goods were 2.73m bpd during June, and Kpler?is estimating that July arrivals will reach 2.57m bpd. These are the two best months ever, surpassing the 2.16m bpd recorded in May 2023.

India's decision, similar to China's cut in crude oil imports, to increase exports of refined products and buy Russian oil is not driven by altruism to support the stressed Asian markets -- it is driven by price.

India's refiners take advantage of the high?premium? that fuels such as diesel and gasoline command over crude oil.

PRODUCT PREMIUMS

Benchmark Brent crude futures are up after the collapse of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S.

Gasoil, a building block of diesel, reached a regional benchmark price in Singapore of $156.72 per barrel on Wednesday. This is up by 43% compared to the low post-ceasefire on June 26 and 71% above the $91.42 on February 27.

Singapore gasoline On Wednesday, oil ended at $119.70 per barrel. This is a 27% increase from the low price of $94.00 that was reached after the deal on July 9. It's also a 51% premium to the $79.30 level of February 27.

Other countries with export capacities are also increasing their output.

Kpler data shows that Oman will export 783.200 bpd of light and middle distillates this July. This is a record and a significant increase from the previous record of 712.600 bpd set in June.

Taiwan is expected to export 306,000 barrels per day (bpd) of light and medium distillates in July. This will be the highest since December, and almost three times more than the 124,000 bpd exported in April.

Kpler estimates that the arrivals in July were 5.80 million barrels per day.

The figure for July is 18% lower than the average of 7,05 million bpd during the three months prior to the conflict. The tightness of the'refined product' markets in Asia is reflected by the fact that even though refiners may have enough crude to meet demand, they lack the export capacity needed to make up for the 'losses' from the conflict between Ukraine and Russia and the Middle East.

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These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)