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Andy Home: The drop in copper imports from China marks a change in the market's power.
The two-week ceasefire of the Iran War has helped to dispel some of the macroeconomic doom that had been enveloping copper prices, but the problem could be even worse for copper bulls. China, as the largest consumer of copper in the world, has shown that it will not pay the high prices of January when the London Metal Exchange's three-month contract for copper reached a nominal record of $14,527.50 metric tons. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics which compiles trade data based on official customs statistics, the country's net copper imports fell?to 125350?tons during February. This is the lowest monthly total since April 2011. It is natural for buyers to react to high prices in any commodity. However, China's influence over copper prices is increasing steadily, due to its growing domestic production capacity. Import SLUMP, Export Surge Since September, the LME copper prices have been rising and reaching their January peak. Inbound shipments continued to slow, falling to 454,000 tonnes in the first two month of 2026. This is a drop of 25% compared to the same period in 2025. Chinese smelters are also increasing exports to take advantage of the strong price. The outbound shipments increased to 172,000 tonnes in January-February, up from 49,000 tons during the same period last year. China's net copper draw from the rest of the world in January and February was only 283,000 tonnes, the lowest start to any year since 2006. Some exports to Europe and the U.S. likely came from China's warehouse stocks, as traders filled the supply-chain gap left by the U.S. trade tariffs last year, which brought metal into the United States. Chinese metal is also flowing directly to LME storage in South Korea, Taiwan and other countries. According to the LME monthly report, the amount of Chinese-brand Copper on LME warrant increased from 87.475 tons at end December to 155.600 tons at end February. The big changes in China's trade in copper are a major reason why LME stocks of 385.275 tons have now risen above their peak in 2018 and returned to levels last seen in 2013 HOLIDAY HIGH The massive build-up of copper in Chinese domestic stocks is remarkable given the sharp decline in imports. Shanghai Futures Exchange's (ShFE) stock always increases around the Lunar New Year period, but this year was more than usual. Early March saw a peak of 433,500 tonnes, up from a holiday record of 268,300 last year. The previous record for the season was 380,000 tonnes in 2020 when holidays coincided in China with COVID-19. ShFE stocks are down to 301,000 tonnes. There's still plenty of metal left to be used before we can start importing. The Yangshan copper is a premium The usual bounce after the holidays has been seen in, an indicator closely watched of spot demand for imported vehicles. Shanghai Metal Market, a local data provider, estimates the premium over LME base prices at $65 per tonne, up from $ 20 in January but still a long way off $ 89 this time last year. The Chinese manufacturing sector has grown for four months in a row, but the impact of this growth on the copper markets has been mitigated due to high inventories. GROWING POWER China's increasing resilience to high prices is based on the continued expansion of domestic smelting capacities. Macquarie Bank estimates that the country's?production of refined copper will grow by 9% annually in 2025. This translates into an additional million tons metal. Chinese smelters consistently outbid Western counterparts to secure raw materials in a competitive copper concentrates market. Macquarie estimates global mined production will grow by 1.8% annually in 2025. China's copper concentrate imports increased by 7.8% during the same time period. Imports for recyclable copper, another possible refinery feedstock, rose by 4% on an annual basis. China's ability, to secure enough raw materials to fuel the country's rising self-sufficiency of refined copper at a price for everyone else. Macquarie estimates that Western smelter output will shrink by 5.1% between 2025 and 2030. This shift in China's production power increases its ability to withstand higher prices by being able both to reduce?imports or to increase exports. The?copperbulls' will return to full cry if the Iran war de-escalates. Don't expect China will follow the bull script. Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Czechs increase lifespan of major nuclear plants by 20 years; second plant is under review
Karel Havilicek, Minister of Industry and Trade, said that the 'Czech Republic' will extend the life span of the four existing units at the Dukovany nuclear power plant by 20 years to 80 years and run them until 2065-2067. Dukovany was built by CEZ, a majority-owned state-owned company, in 1985-1987. Its Soviet-designed VVER nuclear reactors are capable of 2,000 megawatts. This decision follows other life extension decisions, particularly in France, as countries seek to ensure sufficient supplies following the gradual demise of fossil fuels. The 'decision' means that the old units will be running for a longer period alongside the two new 1,000 megawatt units which are to be built on the Dukovany Site under a South Korea contract with KHNP in the late 2030s. CEZ Chief Executive Daniel Benes stated that a similar study was being conducted to extend the 'operating life' of CEZ’s second nuclear plant Temelin which has two 1,086 megawatt units. CEZ is also interested in building small'modular reactors' of the latest generation. It has acquired a minority stake at a British company called Rolls Royce that develops these reactors. The Czech Republic relies primarily on nuclear and coal power plants to produce electricity. Coal units are expected to be phased out around 2030. However, the current government is keen to maintain some coal capacity to ensure energy security. Reporting by Jan Lopatka; editing by Jason Hovet, Chizu Nomiyama
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Gold prices rise as the dollar falls and Middle East tensions continue
As the U.S. Dollar weakened on Thursday,?investors assessed a fragile ceasefire between the?U.S. As fighting continues in the Middle East, investors are looking forward to important U.S. Inflation data amid rising prices. As of 1121 GMT spot gold was 0.6% higher, at $4,743.50 an ounce. It had reached its highest level since March 19, on Wednesday. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell 0.2% to $ 4,767.80. The weaker dollar is giving gold a boost at the moment, but the fast news that comes out of the Middle East makes markets untradable from a financial perspective," said Ross Norman, an independent analyst. Dollar edged down after steep losses in the previous session, as traders kept an eye on the status of the ceasefire between the U.S.A. and Iran. Both sides have declared victory in the five-week-old conflict, but key issues remain unresolved. U.S. president Donald Trump has warned of a major escalate if Iran rejects a deal. Israel continued to bomb targets in Lebanon Thursday, further jeopardizing the Middle East ceasefire after its largest attacks in the war against its neighbor killed more than 250 and threatened to torpedo Donald Trump’s truce. Oil prices rose by 3% on concerns about continuing restrictions on energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz. "Is gold eyeing the $5,000-level? Yes, absolutely. That's still a long way off, I think. Norman said that we have to wait and see if the Strait of Hormuz?opens up. The price of gold has fallen by more than 11% in the past month since the start of the conflict on February 28. This is because surging oil prices, coupled with inflation fears, have reduced expectations for interest rate reductions from U.S. authorities. The minutes of the March meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve showed that policymakers believed that rate increases could be necessary to combat inflation, which continues to exceed central bank targets. Investors are now awaiting the Personal Consumption Spending (PCE) for February data, which is due at 1230 GMT. This will provide more clues about U.S. policy direction. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel and Tasim Zahid) (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel and Tasim Zahid)
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Russell: Refined fuel prices in Asia are declining, but supply is still stressed.
The price of refined fuels has fallen sharply, in line with the declines seen in crude oil prices in the wake of the tentative truce between the United States & Iran. However, the levels remain high enough to indicate a shortage. The prices of gasoil and jet fuel in Singapore, the Asian trading center, all dropped by double digits on Wednesday amid the?market relief? that the deal could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The United States and Iran have made separate announcements about a ceasefire, and their commitment to?peace negotiations. It appears that the deal is already on the rocks. Tehran said it was "unreasonable to continue talks with the United States to form a permanent agreement as long as Israel continued to attack Hezbollah, a group that is aligned with Iran. Some vessels have been reported to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz after the agreement, but it is yet to be seen if more ship owners are willing to risk the narrow waterway, through which up to 20% of crude oil, refined goods and liquefied gas were transported before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, on February 28, 2008. Even if tanker movement does pick up, the Asian market for physical refined product still appears?stressed' and will probably remain that way for an extended period. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark for crude oil prices, closed at $94.75 per barrel on Wednesday. This is a 13.3% drop from their previous close. Brent finished at $72.48 in February, meaning that it has gained 30% since the beginning of the Iran conflict. The price increase for refined products in Asia is much higher than the Brent rise. Jet fuel has been the hardest hit, as it is more difficult to store. Singapore jet fuel On Wednesday, the price of a barrel ended at $193.53. This is down 14.2% compared to its previous closing and 20% lower than the record high $242.06 set on March 30. It is still higher than the $93,45 that it closed at the day before Israel and the U.S. launched their aerial attack against Iran. Gasoil (the building block of diesel) ended Wednesday at $145.02 per barrel, a drop of 17.1% from its previous close. However, it remains 59% above the closing price on February 27. Gasoline The price of a barrel finished Wednesday at $120.80, a 13% drop from its previous close. Light vehicle fuel has increased by 52% since the February 27th close. MARKET TIGHTENS The premiums that refined fuels command over crude futures indicate that many Asian refiners struggle to obtain enough oil to maintain their operating rates. According to Kpler's data, the estimated seaborne crude imports in Asia for April are 19.22 million barrels a day (bpd). The three-month average moving price of 25.0 millions bpd was recorded in the first quarter 2026. Also, it's worth noting that the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed after the conflict began. The seaborne arrivals in the region with the highest imports are expected to be lower than usual in May even if more tankers begin to pass through the Strait. Kpler data estimates April exports by Asian refiners to be 6.61 million bpd. This is down from 7.32 million in March. According to Kpler, April and March are the two smallest months in Asia for refined fuel imports since April 2017. They're also a far cry from the 11,1 million bpd of February. Fuel prices are high because of the loss of 5 million bpd in refined product exports to Asia. Even if oil starts to flow from the Middle East to pre-conflict rates, it will take months for the supply chain to catch up. The situation could worsen in the near future, particularly if the ceasefire is broken and the Strait of Hormuz is closed to most vessels. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Chevron expects to earn up to $2.2 Billion more in Q1 from higher prices
Chevron announced on Thursday that it expected to see a boost of $1.6 billion to $2.2 billion in its first-quarter earnings, compared to the fourth quarter?of 2025. This was due to a'surging' oil and gas prices from the volatility associated with the Iran War. Oil prices soared by up to 65% after the conflict began on 28 February. Some oil and gas fields shut down production in the Middle East - the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit that carried a fifth of global energy flows, was effectively closed. According to LSEG, Brent crude oil prices in the first quarter averaged $78.38 a barrel, up by 24% compared to the previous three-month period. Chevron's net oil-equivalent production will average between 3.8 and 3.9 million barrels a day, with volume affected by downtime in Kazakhstan's Tengizchevroil Project and reduced output throughout the Middle East. Exxon Mobil, a rival company, said that higher oil prices could boost its earnings by $1.4 billion in the upstream sector compared to?the previous quarter. Exxon signaled that overall earnings may decline from the previous quarter as a multibillion-dollar loss related to financial hedging was expected to outweigh the gains from higher prices for oil and gas triggered by Middle East conflict. Chevron said that timing effects related to hedging and accounting will impact first-quarter earnings. Earnings and operating cash flow, excluding working capital, are expected to be reduced by $2.7 to $3.7 billion after tax. The main effect is on downstream, but the impact should reverse in time. Chevron reported earnings of $3.04 billion in the fourth quarter. (Reporting and editing by Vijay Kishore, Pooja Deai, and Sumit Saha from Bengaluru)
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Kremlin: Indonesian president may visit Russia to meet with Putin
Kremlin spokesperson?Dmitry Peskov? said on Thursday that Indonesian President Prabowo?may? visit Russia to hold a?talk with President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin stated earlier this week that the global energy crisis was causing a'shaking of the foundations of oil and gas markets. Peskov responded that contacts were being made between the two leaders. Prabowo’s spokesperson didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. About 20% to 25% of Indonesian crude oil imports are sourced from the Middle East. The government says it will increase?imports to other countries such as Angola and Nigeria to ensure a sufficient supply in Indonesia. Prabowo announced on Wednesday that he would be traveling abroad soon. He refused to disclose his destination but said the trip was meant to'secure Indonesian interests. Reporting by Dmitry Antonov, Stefanno Nangoy and Fransiska Sulaiman in Jakarta. Writing by Vladimir Soldatkin. Editing by Andrew Osborn.
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World Bank predicts India will grow 6.6% in FY27; West Asia crisis still persists
The World Bank warned that India's 6.6% economic growth?for fiscal year 2027 may?face significant risk as the Iran War?fans inflation concerns. However, ample foreign exchange buffers, and a well capitalised banking system, could help mitigate this. There were still doubts about a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East that lasted for two weeks, which raised concerns over energy flow restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz. India, which imports 90% of its crude oil, is "among the economies most vulnerable to long-term war-related disruptions in energy supply." World Bank India's?Economist Aurelien?Kruse stated at a New Delhi news conference on Thursday that retail inflation is expected to be?at 4,9% for the current financial year. This is due to higher food and energy costs and pressure from exchange depreciation, he said. Investors have already been rattled by the?vulnerability. The rupee fell to a new record low after foreign funds pulled $19 billion out of the markets between March and April. The central bank of India expects the growth rate to drop to 6.9% by fiscal 2027, from 7.6% expected in fiscal 2026. The average inflation rate for the year is forecast at 4.6%. Kruse said that the cost of raw materials, energy and petroleum products will increase for the industrial sector. India's forex ?reserves--sufficient for at least 11 months as per the Reserve Bank of India--could help, the World Bank said. The latest data shows that forex reserves increased to $697.1 billion by April?3, from $688.06 in the previous week. The World Bank stated that "India is still one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, even with the recent slowdown." RISE IN DEFICITS According to the World Bank, India's current-account deficit is expected to rise to 1.8% of GDP in fiscal 2027 due to an increase in energy import bill. According to the 'bank, the general government fiscal gap is expected to rise marginally, to 7.6% GDP, compared to 7.3% without the conflict. This is because higher energy prices are likely to lead to higher expenditures on fuel and fertilizer subsidies, while lower excise duties will limit revenue growth. The bank also added that the fiscal deficit will gradually decline over the medium-term.
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China believes'relevant parties can grasp the chance of peace in Iran war
China's Foreign Ministry said that it hoped "relevant parties" would seize this opportunity to bring the Middle East back to stability. This came after Iran and the U.S. agreed on a ceasefire following the Middle East conflict. In a press briefing, the spokesperson for China's foreign ministry Mao Ning stated that China has "actively tried to promote reconciliation and avoid further fighting." Both the U.S.A. and Iran agreed late on Tuesday to a ceasefire of two weeks?to the conflict which has shaken?global markets? and caused?geopolitical turmoil? Mao, the Chinese leader, said that Beijing hoped the relevant parties would take advantage of the chance for peace. "Resolve differences by dialogue and consultation and strive to restore peace and stability as soon as possible in the Gulf region and the Middle East," Mao added. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has vowed to keep military 'assets' in the Middle East unless a peace deal with iran is achieved. He also warned that if Iran did not comply with the terms of the ceasefire there would be a significant escalation of fighting. Prices of oil rose on fears about supply and the future of restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. Reporting by Eduardo Baptista, Beijing newsroom. Writing by Farah Masters; Editing by Alison Williams & Shri Navaratnam.
The MORNING BID AMERICAS Relief rally is paused
Amanda Cooper gives us a look at what the U.S. market and global markets will be like today.
The'recently agreed on two-week Iran truce wobbled as Washington and Tehran disagreed over what the 'deal actually covered. Oil prices and stocks fell as the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed to vessels. A new 'war of words' broke out between both sides as weekend peace negotiations looked likely.
Below, I'll go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
RELIEF Rally HITS PAUSE Brent crude and WTI crude both rose again on Thursday, on renewed uncertainty. Both benchmarks reached $98 per barrel before falling slightly. The prices are still well below those seen earlier in the week. After Wednesday's rally, the Nikkei 225 and KOSPI in South Korea both fell on Thursday, after a multi-day gain. European shares opened lower and U.S. Futures were in the red just before the bell. The dollar traded sideways in currencies as traders sought to determine whether the U.S. Iran ceasefire will hold. Meanwhile, the yen gave back some of its Wednesday gains and now trades at around 159 dollars. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, which has raised doubts about the durability of this ceasefire. Iranian coastguards warned on Wednesday that vessels without permission will be "targeted" and destroyed, and Tehran continues to consider charging a fee for transiting the waterway. Iran also claims that the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon are a violation of the ceasefire. While peace talks may still begin on Saturday, Iran’s chief negotiator has suggested that the process would be "unreasonable". Meanwhile, President Trump has issued new military threats.
All of this is unlikely to convince markets that the ceasefire is the breakthrough they had hoped for, or that the energy crisis facing the global economic system will abate anytime soon. This keeps the threat of inflation on the table and has helped to slow the rally in U.S. Treasury bonds.
The traders will be looking out for the February personal consumption expenditures report on Thursday. It is expected that U.S. Prices have risen by 0.4% in a second consecutive month, even before the recent jump in energy costs. The minutes of the Fed's latest policy meeting were published on Wednesday and showed that some policymakers are leaning towards a rate increase as its next move. "Many participants" continued to support rate cuts at the meeting, but "most" also saw possible risks to economic expansion from the war.
Chart of the Day
Since the beginning of the U.S. - Iran war, the daily shipping traffic through the Strait?of Hormuz is less than 10% of what it was historically.?Tehran has also demonstrated its ability to cut off Gulf oil supplies. This shows how the conflict has already changed power dynamics in this region.
Watch today's events
* U.S. PCE inflation data for February (8:30 am EDT), weekly jobless claims (8.30 am EDT), and final Q4 GDP (8.30 a.m. EDT)
* U.S. 30 year bond auction (1 pm EDT)
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(source: Reuters)