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Fed's Barkin says households and firms still view oil shocks through a "short term lens"
Tom Barkin, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank president, said that businesses continue to believe high oil prices are only a temporary disruption. There is little evidence yet to suggest they have caused consumers to cut back on their spending or changed public expectations of inflation in an alarming way. Barkin said on Tuesday that he had a "short-term" view of the situation based on his weekly credit card spending data and his conversations with executives on pricing, investments and other topics. "Gas expenditure is up, but other spending looks healthy," said Barkin. Barkin is not voting on interest rate policy for this year. If you think that this will only last for a few weeks, then an additional $10 to $15 won't make a big difference in your lifestyle. If you believe this will last a long period of time, I think that you are more likely to experience a pullback. Fed officials and central banks worldwide have responded to the U.S. Airstrikes on Iran and the subsequent surge in global oil price with equal parts patience and concern. They are concerned that sustained high energy costs could increase inflation, which they are trying to contain. And they're also patient against overreacting, until it's clear how long this conflict will last and what impact the prices may be. At its latest meeting, the Fed held the interest rate policy steady at the current range of 3.50% - 3.75%. Policymakers are still projecting that a quarter point rate reduction will be made by the end the year. The situation is uncertain. The potential for a quick change was evident this week, when Brent crude oil, the benchmark, briefly reached $119 per barrel, which is more than 70% above the price before the U.S. began bombing. It then dropped to $102 per barrel after President Donald Trump said that the U.S. war campaign could be coming to an end. He will address the nation on Wednesday night. According to AAA, gas prices jumped on Wednesday, reaching a national median of $4.06 - the highest level since summer 2022 when a combination?of supply shocks from the pandemic era and strong consumer demand caused the 'worst inflation surge in 40 years. Fed officials want to avoid a repeat. The oil boom prompted some investors to believe that the Fed will begin raising interest rates in this year, rather than resuming rate reductions as was expected. Barkin said that there are many scenarios that can push the Fed either way at this time, but he believes that a rise of inflation expectations would be the most likely to cause a rate hike. He said that the hike would be based on inflation expectations finally moving. "I do not have the impression that they are breaking out at this stage." In contrast, the case for rate cuts would be either a rapid return of inflation to the Fed's target of 2% from a point or two above it now, OR a weakening job market which required support through rate reductions. Prices are lower for goods than services The employment report due on Friday will be closely watched to determine if February's job losses were an anomaly, or a sign that weakness was developing. In the absence of this, the Fed could be 'left on hold', and inflation is expected to only make a halting advance towards the central banks target in 2018. This is due to the successive price shocks that Trump has brought about, starting with the tariffs, then continuing with the oil. Barkin, in his discussions with executives, said he has seen a growing split between the goods sector where retailers believe their pricing power is being?limited by consumers' pushback, and the services sector where firms catering to more affluent households feel freer to increase prices. He said that after talking to a retailer who focuses on customers with low-to-moderate incomes, "I got the feeling that consumers were exhausted by price hikes." "They are pushing back." "I walked out with a lens that 1%-2% (of price hikes) would be about the amount they could handle." He said that the?vulnerability was more on the service side, and in particular selling to high-end clients. Barkin stated that "goods suppliers have been through this drill many times, trying to pass along tariffs and oil shock costs. They just feel they don't have much left," Barkin. "I do not have the same feeling about services." Barkin believes that the Fed will likely take a longer time to reach its inflation target. This is reflected in the market's expectations, which no longer include rate hikes. "I see a gradual path, not a quick path. It's just my instinct. Reporting by Howard Schneider, Editing by Dan Burns & Chizu Nomiyama
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SpaceX is seen as a test that will determine whether mega-IPOs succeed or fail
Elon Musk's SpaceX may be the answer to the global IPO market's long-term struggle. Saudi Aramco was the last company to have a IPO at a valuation of over one trillion dollars in 2019. SpaceX, with its "over-trillion-dollar valuation", CEO who has a cult following in retail and exposure to a fast-growing industry is what the IPO'market" has been looking for to end a long-term drought of mega-deals. Investors' appetite for such a large?listing? is still uncertain. Analysts and experts say that the company's success is unique, so it could only have a limited impact on the broader market sentiment. Brian Jacobsen is the chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. Here are a few charts that show the market's current status and SpaceX IPO's potential: WORLD'S BIGGEST IPO ON THE HORIZON The rocket startup has confidentially filed for a blockbuster listing, looking to?raise $50 billion or more, which could value it at $1.75 trillion, potentially dethroning oil giant Saudi Aramco as the world’s largest IPO. Here are some charts showing the current market status and SpaceX's IPO potential: Samuel Kerr is the global head of equity markets at Mergermarket. He said that SpaceX would be the largest IPO ever, based on the size being discussed. It will be a test of public market capacity in a period of real turmoil. SpaceX is probably the only business that can list on this market given all of the hype. PIVOTAL TESTING SpaceX's listing may serve as a?bellwether for IPOs. A positive?reception could indicate that the long-awaited recovery of big-ticket deals has finally begun. Issuers waited for years as markets were volatile, driven by inflation fears, rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions. Industry hopes that 2026 will see a resurgence of market debuts. Kat Liu is vice president of IPOX, a research firm that specializes in IPOs. It would show that the public markets are able to accept large, high-value offerings and help validate pricing in late-stage private markets. TRILLION DOLLAR CLUB Several high profile startups, such as SpaceX, ChatGPT maker OpenAI, and TikTok owner ByteDance have blurred lines between public and private companies with valuations that are comparable to those of the top-tier S&P500 firms. SpaceX will join the ranks of "mega-cap giants" such as Microsoft, Apple and Google that attract the majority of retail and institutional investors. Elon Musk announced?in February? that SpaceX acquired his artificial intelligence startup xAI, in a deal of unprecedented proportions. SpaceX was valued at $1 trillion, and xAI, at $250 billion. This is what a report citing a reliable source said. The recent xAI integration allows Musk to combine launch, Starlink and AI?into a scarce, mega story which can support a higher valuation than what the businesses could achieve individually," said Minmo Gahng assistant professor of Finance at Cornell University. SpaceX reported that it generated an $8 billion profit last year on revenues between $15 billion and $16 billion, according to a January report citing sources familiar with the issue. The equities benchmark has been underperforming the index tracking major listings over the last 12 months. Analysts believe that a successful SpaceX launch could help reopen a window for large and long-delayed listing, especially in capital-intensive industries which have struggled to find investors on the public markets. Some have a more conservative view of the market's future. Kerr, from Mergermarket, said that "(SpaceX could) take up so many capacity that other mega issues might decide to wait and not test the same window."
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Wood Mac, a consultancy, says that EGA's Al Taweelah aluminum site has ceased operations following an attack.
Emirates Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy firm, said that an Iranian missile and drone attack on Saturday damaged a power station at Global Aluminium's Al Taweelah plant in the United Arab Emirates. Wood Mackenzie said that the smelter of Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), which was also attacked on Saturday, "suffered significant damage and is expected to operate at an estimated 30% utilisation". EGA and Alba said they were assessing the extent of damage to their sites at the weekend, but did not specify what was?affected. A spokesperson for EGA had no comment on Wood Mackenzie’s note when asked about a?update? of?operations. Alba didn't respond to a comment request. Wood Mackenzie’s press office stated that its information came from contacts of the consultancy in the Middle East but refused to give further details. Al Taweelah, in the emirate of Abu Dhabi, is home to a roughly 1.5-million-metric-ton-per-year ?capacity aluminium smelter and an alumina refinery. Alba's capacity of 1.6 million tons per annum in Bahrain makes it world's largest single-site aluminum smelter. Wood Mackenzie stated that the 'ongoing Middle East conflict' is triggering an 'important supply crisis on the global aluminum market. Disruptions could remove 3-3.5?million tonnes of production?by 2026. Last year, the world produced a little under 74,000,000 tons of primary aluminum. (Reporting and additional reporting by Polina Devtt, Editing by Emelia S. Sithole-Matarise).
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Poland's Orlen signs a preliminary deal to acquire Grupa Azoty.
Orlen, a Polish state-owned refiner, announced on Wednesday that it had signed a preliminary agreement with Grupa Azoty - a poland-controlled chemicals company - to purchase all of the remaining shares in its Grupa Azoty?Polyolefins?unit. Orlen has provided the financing of 1.35 billion zlotys (364.23 millions) required for the completion of its restructuring. Orlen holds 17.3% of the company, but this will increase to 100% when the planned transaction for the third quarter is completed. Since 2024, Orlen and Azoty have been discussing the options for the polymers business. Azoty is a company that 'is suffering from losses in its core business of fertilisers. The project is not complete and requires restructuring due to?delays in the investment plan and?delayed completion of the project. Ireneusz Fafara, Chief Executive Officer of Orlen, said at a recent press conference that launching operations would require an additional investment similar to the purchase price. He said that Orlen planned to begin production of industrial plastics, including polypropylene, next year. This would coincide with improved petrochemical margins. Marcin Celejewski, CEO of Grupa Azoty said that the transaction would be a catalyst to implement the new strategy. This will focus on fertilisers and maximize synergies in the group. Azoty also said that an agreement was being reached to settle the legal dispute between Grupa Azoty?Polyolefins, and Hyundai Engineering with Orlen as the guarantor. Orlen was long considered 'the best candidate to stabilize the project and take it over,' wrote Erste Group analyst Cezary Bernardatek in a client note. The transaction is in line with market expectations. "We'd expect a neutral market reaction at first... He added that the deal was more of a 'risk cleanup' than a 'new growth catalyst. Orlen's shares fell 1.3% and Azoty’s 0.7% at 1112 GMT, compared to a 2.2% increase in the blue-chip WIG20 index.
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IEA warns that Middle East oil disruptions will hit Europe in April
Fatih Binol, the head of the International Energy Agency, said that oil supply disruptions from the Middle East would?rise? in April. They will begin to?impact? the European economy because the Strait of Hormuz is closed. He added that more than 12 million barrels have been lost due to the attacks by Iran on energy?assets and the restrictions on shipping through Strait since the U.S./Israel war against Iran began. "The loss of oil in April will be double the loss of oil in March. On top of that, the loss of LNG... The loss of?oil in April will be twice as much as the oil loss in March, on top of the loss?of LNG... He added that losses are expected to increase?in April since many of the oil and LNG cargoes which arrived in March had been contracted before war, and they continued on their way. Birol stated that the biggest problem was the lack of diesel and jet fuel, which had already affected Asian countries, but would soon affect Europe. He added, "We're seeing it in Asia. But soon, I believe, in April or may, we will see it in Europe." Birol reiterated that the IEA is considering a new release of strategic reserves, after its members released a record 400 mln barrels of oil. Birol stated that the current disruption in oil and LNG supply is worse than both the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, and the loss of Russian Gas volumes due to Moscow's invasion in Ukraine in 2022. He added that about 40 energy assets in the Middle East have been damaged and will take some time to recover. Birol stated, "We're heading for a major, massive disruption that will be the largest in history."
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Japan and France agree to intensify coordination in the Hormuz and Iran war
Sanae Takaichi, Japan's Prime Minister, said that Japan and France agreed to work closely together to bring an end to the U.S. - Israeli war with Iran and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gasoline tankers. Takaichi, after talks in Tokyo with French Emmanuel Macron on industrial and security cooperation, said: "Because of the challenging international situation, I think it is important that the leaders of Japan & France deepen their personal ties - and make our cooperation stronger." Japan, France, and other countries are dealing with rising energy costs as the conflict in the Middle East enters its fifth week. If the conduit that carries about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied gas does not reopen, there could be a shortage of petroleum products. Japan, which gets 90% of its oil normally from the Middle East has started to draw on its own oil reserves in order to cushion the economic impact. Macron, speaking alongside?Takaichi said that he shared the same position as hers on the necessity of restoring freedom of navigation to?the Strait. France held discussions with dozens countries to seek proposals for a mission aimed at reopening the waterway after the conflict is over. Japan said that it could consider sending minesweepers but the scope of any role would be limited by its constitution. Both leaders said that they would pursue closer security ties in the Indo-Pacific region and have signed agreements on cooperation with critical mineral supply chains and civilian nuclear technology.
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Dollar drops as gold nears 2-week-high amid hopes of an end to the Iran war
On Wednesday, gold was near a two-week-high - after a month that saw its largest monthly loss for nearly 17 years. The U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields fell on signs of a de-escalation of the war against Iran. Gold spot rose by 1.2%, to $4,723.35 an ounce, at 0958 GMT. It had earlier reached its highest level since the 19th of March. U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose 1.5% to $4749.90. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump said that?the war against Iran could be close, signaling the potential for direct talks with Tehran and a winding-down of the conflict without a deal. Trump will give an update on Iran at 9pm EDT on Tuesday (0100 GMT Thursday). "It's a positive sentiment?after another Donald Trump statement...?We have seen that the U.S. Dollar index has weakened, and the euro has firmed up against the dollar. Futures for bonds and interest rate cuts are both up, which indicates that the opportunity cost to hold gold has decreased," said Quantitative commodity Research analyst Peter Fertig. Gold priced in greenbacks is now less expensive for those who hold other currencies. Benchmark yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes fell to a two-week low. Gold prices fell by more than 11% during March, the steepest monthly drop since October 2008. This was due to rising oil prices which have fueled inflation fears. Investors are less interested in non-yielding gold due to expectations that monetary policy will be hawkish. Fertig said that the market has shifted its narrative on gold as a safe-haven at times. If it's more about inflation, gold and equities could both suffer because the markets fear this would force central banks to?keep interest rates on hold for the Fed. Other than that, silver spot fell by 0.8% at $74.50 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.5% to $1958.75, and palladium dropped 0.2% to $1473.75. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)
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Wood Mac, a consultancy, says that EGA's Al Taweelah aluminum site has ceased operations following an attack.
Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah plant in the United Arab Emirates has halted its operations following a?Iranian missile and drone attack that damaged a power?plant on Saturday, Wood 'Mackenzie' said in a Wednesday research note. Wood Mackenzie said that the smelter of Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), which was also attacked on Saturday, had "suffered significant damage and will operate with an estimated utilization?of 30 percent". EGA and Alba said that they would be assessing damage to their sites at the weekend, but did not specify what was affected. The Wood Mackenzie report on the current conflict in the Middle East and its impact on aluminium supplies was not commented upon by either company. Wood Mackenzie’s press office stated that its information came from contacts of the consultancy in the Middle East but refused to give further details. Al Taweelah, in the emirate of Abu Dhabi, is home to a roughly 1.5-million-metric-ton-per-year capacity ?aluminium smelter and an alumina refinery. Alba's capacity in Bahrain of 1.6 million tons per annum makes it the largest single-site aluminum smelter in the world. Wood Mackenzie stated that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is creating a 'critical supply crisis' on global aluminium markets. Disruptions could result in a loss of 3-3.5?million tonnes of production?by 2026. Last year, the world produced a little under 74,000,000 tons of primary aluminum. (Reporting and additional reporting by Polina Devtt, Editing by Emelia S. Sithole-Matarise).
Find the 'off-ramp' for MORNING BID AMERICAS
By Mike Dolan
April 1st -
Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets, explains what matters today in U.S. markets.
The word "off ramp" has been the buzzword this week in relation to the Iran War. And the steep Wall Street rally that took place on the last day of the first-quarter spoke of this relief on Tuesday. Will April's'skies clear'? The S&P's jump was the largest one-day gain in the past year.
Below, I'll explain more. Check out my most recent column about how cash beat all classic safe-havens in March. Warren Buffett will tell you why. Listen to the Morning Bid Daily Podcast, where I break down the upside surprise of U.S. Consumer Confidence and discuss the relief rally.
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Finding the 'off ramp' President Trump and Secretary Marco Rubio's signals that the U.S. may be ready to end the war were the ostensible catalysts for the rally. The rally was triggered by reports that Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian would be willing to talk about a ceasefire if he were given guarantees that the attacks wouldn't happen again. Brent crude was trading at around $103 a barrel in the early hours of Wednesday morning. WTI, however, hovered just above $100. As it stands, however, the missile and drone trade in the Gulf continues. It is possible that the extent of the market's moves on Tuesday was also due to a number of factors, including month-end and quarterly considerations as well as a holiday-shortened work week. Asia's markets also followed suit, with Japan and South Korea posting sharp gains on Wednesday. European markets are also up and Wall Street Futures appear to have maintained their gains before today's bell. Gold climbed to its highest level in nearly two weeks before reversing some of the gains. The dollar slipped against a basket major currencies while the yen remained under the 160 per dollar level.
The White House says that President Trump is preparing to address the nation Wednesday evening with an "important update" on Iran. Investors digested the two pieces of U.S. Economic Information - the surprising increase in U.S. Consumer Confidence readings for the month of March and the weaker sounds from the February Job Openings Report. In Asia, the pace of factory activity in March slowed due to rising fuel prices, but South Korea defied the trend, with the fastest growth in over four years. The AI-driven demand for semiconductors boosted South Korea’s export growth, which reached a four-decade-high.
ADP is set to release the March payroll update for private sector employees, as well as February retail sales, later today. The Q1 earnings season will be the focus of attention for the next quarter, with the full-year growth expectations seemingly unchanged by the recent energy shock.
Chart of the Day Nike's surprise forecast for a drop in sales in the fourth quarter on Tuesday caused its shares to fall more than 9% in extended trading. This was due to persistent weakness in China, and slow progress clearing older inventory. As it clears out its inventory, the company has reduced selling in China. It expects China sales will fall by a staggering 20 percent next quarter.
Watch today's events
* U.S. ADP March private payrolls (8.15 a.m. ET), February retail sales (8:00 a.m. ET),?March Manufacturing PMIs (10.30 a.m. ET)
* President Trump gives an update on Iran (9 pm EDT)
Alberto Musalem, a St. Louis Fed and Michael Barr from the Fed of St. Louis, both speak
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(source: Reuters)