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Global shares slide, yields climb as Gulf war intensifies

Global shares fell on Monday, while U.S. Bond yields reached their highest levels in eight months as the U.S. traded escalating threat with Iran and Israel prepared for "weeks" of more fighting. This sent oil prices into another roller coaster.

Iran said on Sunday that it would attack the water and energy systems of its Gulf neighbours if U.S. president Donald Trump carried out his threat to strike Iran's power grid within 48-hours. This ended any hope for an early end to this war, which is now in its 4th week.

Trump said Iran has two days to open the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is currently closed for many vessels, and there are few prospects for naval protection. This deadline ends at 2344 GMT, on Monday.

MSCI's broadest global stock index fell 0.6% on Monday, adding more than 7.4% to the losses recorded for the month.

Japan's benchmark index, the?Nikkei, fell by 3.5%. Nerves finally struck China where blue-chip stocks were headed for their worst beating since U.S. Tariffs hit markets in 2018.

European shares fell to a 4-month low, led by defense, as investors factored in inflation pressures due to the intensifying conflict in the Middle East. Last time, the pan-European stock index fell by 1.75%.

S&P 500 futures fell 0.6% while Nasdaq Futures dropped 0.7%.

Brent crude oil prices were once again volatile. Brent closed at $113.20 per barrel, up by 0.8%. This is more than 55% above the previous month's average. U.S. crude rose 0.9% to $99.15.

The U.S. has allowed Iranian and Russian oil from tankers to be sold in the near-term, but the risk of shortages over the longer term is pushing futures prices down. September Brent, for example, was $2 higher at $93.90. This suggests that high prices are here to stay.

The markets are worried about Trump's ultimatum against Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts from HSBC reported that Singapore jet fuel prices rose 175% in this year, reaching a record high. Asian liquefied gas also increased 130%. Bunker fuel, which is used to transport goods by ship, has been leaking, increasing the cost. Fertiliser prices are also on the rise.

Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, warned that the crisis is "very severe", and worse than both oil shocks in the 1970s combined.

SEND OFF RATE CUTTINGS

Energy inflation has caused markets to abandon their hopes of further monetary ease globally, and instead price in rate increases across the majority of developed nations.

Futures have eliminated expectations of 50 basis points easing from the Federal Reserve in this year. There is even a slight chance that the next move will be upward.

The sea change to hawkish has sent bond yields soaring, increasing borrowing costs for governments who are already facing deficits and debt.

While the rise in yields has made equity valuations appear more stretched, the prospect of higher costs as well as a softer consumer market have clouded corporate profit forecasts.

Last week, bond yields increased by double digits around the world due to the?energy shock and pressure on fiscal budgets caused by higher defence expenditure.

The yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds has reached a nine-month high, 4.4274%. This is a dramatic 44 basis point increase since the start of the war.

As a result of the increased volatility on the markets, the U.S. Dollar has become a more liquid store. The U.S. also is a net energy exporter. This gives it a comparative advantage over Europe and most of Asia who are net importers.

The euro fell a shade to $1.1514 but was still a long way off major supports of $1.1409 or $1.1392.

Investors were wary of Japan intervening if the dollar broke 160.

Gold fell 4.35% on the commodity market to $4,300 per ounce, as investors bet on rising interest rates worldwide. (Reporting and editing by Dhara Raasinghe, Lincoln Feast and Wayne Cole)

(source: Reuters)