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Stocks are upbeat due to the prospect of Fed easing, which outweighs political uncertainties

Asia stocks rose Tuesday on the back of expectations that the U.S. will cut rates as soon as next week. However, political turmoil around world kept currency and bonds investors on edge.

The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 0.7%. It took its lead from Wall Street, where the Nasdaq closed at a record-high overnight.

Nasdaq Futures rose 0.06% last, while S&P500 futures also ticked upwards by 0.05%.

European futures meanwhile eased as regional benchmark indexes recorded gains in the cash sessions on Monday.

The EuroStoxx 50 futures declined by 0.2%. The FTSE and DAX Futures both fell 0.13% and 0.26% respectively.

The expectation that the Federal Reserve will ease rates at its meeting next week after Friday's disappointing U.S. employment report gave new life to the rally in equities.

Investors are betting on a 25 basis-point cut in this month's inflation figures. They are now focusing their attention on whether or not the Fed will deliver a 50-basis point move.

Later in the day, the U.S. Labor Department is also expected to report an estimate of the preliminary revisions for the employment levels during the past 12 months up until March.

Both publications will influence the central banks' pace on the monetary policy staircase, said Jose Torres senior economist at Interactive Brokers. He was referring to PPI and CPI data.

A large subtraction of workers from the roster, coupled with a CPI that is below the target level, will likely increase the odds by a half percent to a coin toss.

According to CME FedWatch, the markets now price in a chance of over 11% that the Fed will lower rates by 50bp during this month. This is up from zero a week earlier.

Japan's Nikkei index surpassed the 44,000-mark for the first time. The yen was weaker and the fiscal hawk Shigeru Shiba resigned as Prime Minister.

Ryosei Acazawa, Japan's chief tariff negotiator, said Tuesday in an X message that U.S. duties on Japanese products including auto parts and cars will be reduced by September 16.

The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose by 0.5% while the blue-chip index of China, CSI300, fell 0.7%.

POLITICAL TURMOIL

In recent sessions, the currency and bond markets have been shaken by renewed uncertainty about the political landscape in various countries.

Investors had a lot to consider, from Ishiba’s resignation in Japan to French lawmakers voting to remove Francois Bayrou as Prime Minister, a crushing defeat of the ruling party of President Javier Milei in Argentina’s local elections to the sudden replacement for Indonesia’s Finance Minister.

The dollar's decline was the only thing that capped losses in all currencies, and most bond markets are now largely stable.

The yen last gained 0.3% at 147.05 to the dollar, recouping its previous losses, while the euro remained steady at $1.1772.

After rising the previous session, yields on Japanese government bond fell on Tuesday. Bond yields are inversely related to bond prices.

Shier Lee Lim is the lead FX and macrostrategist for APAC, at Convera.

The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury, which is usually a good indicator of near-term expectations, has been stuck at a low for five months, 3.5005%.

The benchmark yield on the 10-year bond was also near its five-month low and stood last at 4,0512%.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as OPEC+ increased production less than expected by market participants.

Brent crude futures rose by 0.73% to $66.50 a barrel. U.S. crude climbed 0.72%, reaching $62.71 per barrel.

Gold spot reached a new record of $3,656.92 per ounce on the back of expectations of imminent Fed reductions.

(source: Reuters)