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South Africa's Eskom posts first full-year profits in eight years
Eskom, the state-owned South African power utility, reported on Tuesday its first profit for a full year in eight years. This was due to government debt relief and higher tariffs as well as a dramatic reduction in power outages. Eskom's annual report revealed that the company made a profit of 16.0 billion rand ($927.24million) for the year ending March 2025. This compares to a loss of 55.0 billion rand a year before. The report stated that "government debt relief, new tariffs, increased sales related to operational turnaround, and cost optimization initiatives" had all contributed to Eskom's first profit in 8 years. Eskom's power outages have hindered South Africa's growth in economic terms for over a decade. Its repeated bailouts also drained the state's coffers. The frequency of power cuts has decreased dramatically since the beginning of last year. Just 13 days were lost to power in the latest financial year compared with a record number of 329 days one year prior. $1 = 17.2555 rand
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Oil prices to remain stable as supply increases, but concerns about Russian output offset the outlook
A poll on Tuesday showed that oil prices will remain almost unchanged this year despite the increased supply of both OPEC+ producers and non-OPEC ones. Concerns about a possible glut are tempered by the uncertainty surrounding Russian production. According to a survey conducted by 32 economists and analyst in September, Brent crude is expected to average $67.61 a barrel in 2025. This forecast is just 4 cents lower than the previous month's prediction. Brent, which opened Tuesday at $67.22, has averaged about $69.90 this year. West Texas Intermediate, which was forecast to average $64.65 in August, is now expected to average $64.39 by 2025. Early Tuesday morning, it was trading at $62.70 and has averaged $66.60 in 2025. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that prices are being shaped primarily by the tug-of-war over supply. OPEC+'s increases and the resumption of supply from northern Iraq is being offset by a threat of disruptions in supply from Russia. OPEC+, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its allies, including Russia, agreed earlier this month to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels a day from October, bringing the total production increase this year to more than 2.5 million barrels a day. Analysts said that this was the main driver behind a looming surplus of supply, along with an increase in output from non OPEC+ producers. The surplus is expected to grow as a result of this, and the expectation that demand will slow down due to the weak economy growth caused by trade tariffs. Analysts are still concerned that sanctions, attacks on infrastructure, or Moscow’s own policies could further curtail Russian exports, maintaining a floor below prices. Last week, after a series of drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries, Alexander Novak, the Deputy Prime Minister, was quoted saying that Russia would introduce a partial export ban on diesel until the end the year, and extend the existing export ban on gasoline. The International Energy Agency's latest monthly report stated that world oil supplies would increase more quickly this year, and a surplus may expand in 2026, as OPEC+ producers increase their output, and the supply outside of the producer group increases, contrary to OPEC’s updated outlook. Analysts expect the demand to increase by an average of 0.7 million Bpd in this year. The consensus of analysts' price forecasts also highlights their view that, while geopolitical risk remains elevated, especially in the Middle East, and Russia, it is unlikely to translate into sustained price gains. The key narrative for Q3 and Q4 of 2025 is the struggle between a fundamentally low market (oversupply due to OPEC+ unwinding, and non-OPEC+ expansion) and a high probability of price spikes in the short term driven by geopolitical risk," said Zain Vaida, analyst with MarketPulse.
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The Indonesian tin-exporters group expects refined tin to reach 53,000 metric tonnes by 2025.
Harwendro Adityo said that the Indonesia Tin Exporters Association estimates that refined tin will reach 53,000 metric tonnes in 2025. This is up from 45,000 metric tons a year ago, he added. The resumption of operations by several smelters from the Bangka region, whose activities were interrupted by a corrupt probe last year, will support the shipment. The association doesn't expect any disruptions to shipments due to the crackdown on illegal mining on Bangka Island, a tin-hub. Tin prices have risen in London and Shanghai following remarks by President Prabowo, who said he would shut down a thousand illegal mines and stop boats from smuggling out tin from Bangka Island. "This crackdown has not disrupted activities yet." "Those who have yet to meet their mining quotas continue to do so, while others are already planning for next year," Harwendro said. The association instead expects that shipments will be supported by the recovery a number private tin-smelters whose operations have been halted in the last two years because of an investigation conducted by the Attorney General into state miner Timah, and other companies. He said that "many private smelters have come back to life and exporters have also returned to life." Timah, a state-owned miner, said this month it was confident of reaching its production target because the crackdown will help eliminate illegal competitors. (Reporting and editing by Fransiska Nanangoy)
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Sources say that India's gold and silver imports in September nearly doubled despite record prices.
India's gold and silver imports nearly doubled from August to September, despite record-high prices. Banks and jewellers were rushing to stock up ahead of festivals in order avoid higher import taxes, according sources. India's higher imports, as the second largest consumer of gold, will support the price, which has reached record levels this week. This is despite the fact that demand in the top buyer, China, is lagging. However, the surge in imports may increase India's trade surplus and put pressure on its weaker rupee. A government official who requested anonymity because he wasn't authorized to speak to the media said, "Jewellers have cleared a lot gold from customs in the last two weeks." "We haven’t seen such a rush for years." He said that the customs authorities cleared a larger volume of imported goods in September than in August. A higher clearance is expected for the last day of this month due to a possible increase in the import base price of gold or silver. The Indian government reviews the base import price every 15 days to determine import duties. The new base price is expected to be higher following the recent rally in global prices. Chirag Thakkar said, the chief executive officer of Amrapali Group in Gujarat, a major precious metal importer. "Even though gold and silver reached record highs, investors kept chasing after them and investment demand soared," said Thakkar. His company had more than doubled their gold and Silver purchases in September compared to the previous month. Data from the trade ministry shows that India imported 64.17 tonnes of gold for $5.4 billion and 410.8 tonnes of silver for $451.6 millions in August. The government will publish trade data for the month of September by mid-October. Silver futures in India reached a new record of 144330 rupees for a kilogram on Tuesday. Indian gold futures also hit 116900 rupees. Jewellers who had avoided gold and silver for the past few months, awaiting a correction in price, are now paying more to stock up before the festival season, as prices have reached new highs. Indians celebrate Diwali in October, the festival that is celebrated by Indians. It is a good time to purchase gold. Indian dealers have quoted a premium this week Up to $8 per ounce above official domestic prices. This includes 6% import duties and 3% sales taxes. A Singapore-based gold dealer said that the strong buying from India surprised the market. China is still inactive. This month, Chinese dealers increased their discounts to $31-$71 per ounce. The highest prices in recent years have been recorded against benchmark global prices. (Reporting and editing by Mayank Bhhardwaj, Clarence Fernandez and Clarence Fernandez).
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Indonesia has contacted the United States nuclear watchdog to discuss radioactive shrimp
Indonesian authorities announced on Tuesday that it is regularly updating the United States and the global nuclear watchdog about its investigation into the detection of radioactive elements in a shipment of shrimp. Indonesia is investigating the traces of Caesium-137 that were found in shrimps shipped by a local firm to the United States in August. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration reported that the same contaminant had been found last week in a shipment containing cloves. Zulkifli Hazan, Coordinating Minister for Food, told journalists that Indonesia is in contact with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and U.S. authorities. According to the FDA website, Caesium 137 can be found in the environment primarily as a result of nuclear accidents or testing such as Chernobyl. Indonesia has no nuclear weapons nor nuclear power plants. Bara Hasibuan said that Indonesia also looks into the latest findings of the U.S. FDA in regards to the clove exports. She was speaking with journalists alongside Hasan. The agency has already banned the exporting company PT Natural Java Spice from sending spices into the United States. Hasan, who presided over the meeting that discussed the investigation of the contamination of shrimps, made the comments. Hasan stated that Indonesia conducted additional inspections and health tests in a radiation-exposed industrial area to determine the extent of contamination. The task force was established in Indonesia after the U.S. FDA advised American consumers, distributors, and sellers to not eat, serve, or sell frozen shrimp imported from Indonesian company PT. Bahari Makmur Sejati. Hasan, Hasan's task force, said that the contamination was only found in Cikande. This industrial area is located just outside of Jakarta. They will also investigate the staff of a scrap metal company believed to be the caesium source. He didn't elaborate on the possibility that the shrimp packages may have been in contact with a scrap metal factory. The task force examined more than 1,500 community members and workers in the area and found that there was no significant impact. Hasan stated that the government makes sure quality control mechanisms are in place for fishery products and they operate according to national and international standards. (Reporting and editing by Gibran Peshimam, David Stanway and Dewi Kurniawati)
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Copper prices are impacted by profit-taking and the start of the long holiday in China
The price of copper fell on Tuesday, as the start of a holiday week in China's top metals-consuming country coincided with the close of the third-quarter. This prompted profit-taking following the prices reaching their 15-month-high last week. The benchmark three-month price of copper at the London Metal Exchange dropped 0.6%, to $10 347.50 per metric ton as of 0948 GMT. After the disruption of the Grasberg Mine in Indonesia this month, many analysts have lowered their estimates for 2025 and 2026. Copper prices rose to a 15-month-high of $10,485 Thursday on the prospect of reduced supply from Grasberg. The discount between the LME cash price and the three-month contract for copper was also reduced. . Last week, the discount was $26 per ton. This is the lowest level since last July. The Yangshan Copper Premium is a premium in China The price of copper, which reflects the demand for imported copper into the country fell by 6%, to $50 per ton. This was its lowest level in six weeks, just before the National Day holiday, which normally reduces overall trading activity. From October 1 to 8, the financial markets in Mainland China will be closed. China's poor manufacturing data also affected the market sentiment. An official survey released on Tuesday showed that China's manufacturing activity declined for the sixth consecutive month in September. This suggests that producers are waiting for more stimulus to boost domestic consumption. Tin lost 0.5% on the LME to $35,285 per ton. On Monday, the metal reached $35,510 - its highest price since April 4 - after news that Indonesia had ordered the closing of 1,000 illegal tin mining operations in a major producing region. A tin dealer said that the significance of this move to the tin production in the region was probably overstated. He added that "the actual impact on tin supplies is still uncertain but this uncertainty fuels fund's involvement in long positions on LME tin". LME Aluminium and zinc both fell by 0.2%, to $2674.50 and $2935.50 respectively. Lead remained unchanged at $1.995.50 while nickel dropped 0.4%, to $15,270. (Reporting and editing by Leroy Leo; Polina Devtt)
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Gold drops from record high due to profit-taking, but it is still the best month for 5 years
Gold prices fell on Tuesday, as investors took profits after the price hit a record earlier in the day. However, concerns about a U.S. shutdown and an increase in bets for a Federal Reserve rate reduction limited losses. As of 0924 GMT, spot gold was down 0.9% at $3,800.34 an ounce after gaining 1% during Asia hours to reach a record high price of $3,871.45 per ounce. Bullion is up 10.4% in September and on course to have its largest monthly percentage gain since the month of July 2020. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell by 0.7% to $3.827.80. Swissquote's external analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa stated that gold had pared its gains due to profit-taking, after it rose as much as 1% in Asia hours. "So far this is only a technical correct and we aren't talking about an Inversion." The White House meeting between Donald Trump and his Democratic rivals to prevent a shutdown of the government that could affect a range of services by Wednesday appeared to have made little progress. De Casa said that "the risk of a shutdown for gold is a positive, because it indicates uncertainty and the Federal Reserve may not have clear data as that could arrive later." According to CME Group’s FedWatch, the markets expect an 89% probability of a reduction in 25 basis points at the Fed’s October meeting. Investors are now awaiting a number of U.S. economic data, including Friday's nonfarm payrolls. In the event of partial government shutdown, the U.S. Labor Department confirmed Monday that the statistics agency will suspend the release of data including the closely watched monthly employment report. UBS said that its bull case scenario predicts gold to reach $4,200/oz in mid-2026. The bank made this statement in a Tuesday note. In a low interest rate environment, gold, which is viewed as a safe haven in times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, does well. The shares of China's Zijin Gold International soared 66% on their Hong Kong debut after the company raised $3 billion in its initial public offering, the largest deal globally in 2025. Silver spot has gained 16.1% this month, despite a 2% loss to $45.99 an ounce. Palladium fell 3% and platinum dropped 4.5%.
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Nippon Steel purchases 30% of Canada's Kami Iron Ore Project
Nippon Steel, Japan's steel company, announced on Tuesday that it has purchased a 30% stake of Canada's Kami Iron Ore Project. The joint venture will be formed with Australia's Champion Iron & Sojitz in order to ensure high-grade ore for direct reduced iron. The top Japanese steelmaker, NS Canadian Resources paid C$42,000,000 ($30.20 million) out of the total C$150,000,000 consideration. The remaining C$108,000,000 will be paid pending a further investment decision based upon a feasibility report. The agreement follows an agreement signed in December, whereby Nippon Steel & Trading House Sojitz agreed that they would buy 49% of the project from Champion Iron at a cost of C$245 millions. The companies are forming a joint venture called the Kami Iron Mine Partnership to advance a feasibility report for a project in Newfoundland & Labrador that is being considered for development. Nippon Steel stated that the project's ore was a rare, high-grade resource, suitable for direct reduction iron production. Nippon Steel plans to build large electric arc smelters to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Direct reduced iron and high-quality scrap are needed to produce high-grade steel. The Japanese steelmaker has increased its stakes in iron ore and coking coal mines, following the recent acquisition of U.S. Steel. This is to ensure that essential raw materials are available.
The specter of stagflation clouds Fed's optimism
Kevin Buckland gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
The market is optimistic about monetary policy. Rising equity prices and falling bond values are a good indicator of this. A rate cut next week at the Fed meeting has a decent chance to be a big one.
Wall Street closed with new record highs over night, Taiwan's benchmark has reached a new peak and Japan's Nikkei index is moving back to Tuesday's unprecedented level.
The unquestionable weakness of labour market indicates that policy easing will be imminent.
The question is, however, how much the Fed's rate cut trajectory is complicated by the still-sticky inflation. Markets will receive two crucial days of data, namely PPI today and CPI the following day.
The Fed would be forced to take a risky course of action if inflation levels were high.
The market currently has 66 basis point of easing priced for the end of the year, with 7% odds on a 50 basis-point cut coming next Wednesday.
The Fed is still the most important story on the global markets, but European investors should keep an eye on the geopolitical situation after NATO member Poland shot down for the first time apparent Russian drones it claimed had infringed on its airspace when it launched an attack against western Ukraine.
French politics is also a major topic. The deeply unpopular President Emmanuel Macron has named Sebastien lecornu, a 39-year old loyalist, as his fifth Prime Minister in less than two-years, raising the question of just how long either of them can hold on to power.
The outcome of ECB’s two-day summit that begins today is now more certain. Economists are almost unanimous in their expectation for rates to remain unchanged. The ECB's two-day meeting that begins today is more certain, with economists almost unanimously expecting rates to remain steady.
The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday.
US PPI (August).
-Sweden monthly GDP (July)
-Norway, Denmark CPI (both August)
Italy, Spain, Greece Industrial Output (all July).
(source: Reuters)