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Asia stocks rise, bonds fall when traders look at odds of a bigger Fed cut

Asian stocks followed Wall Street higher Wednesday, and safe-haven bond prices fell. Traders increased their bets on the possibility that a softening U.S. labor market would prompt the Federal Reserve to lower rates by at least one quarter point next Monday.

S&P 500 Futures rose 0.3%, while STOXX50 futures in Europe gained 0.2%.

The dollar is little changed after two days of crucial U.S. inflation data, which will begin later on Wednesday and continue until the Fed's September 17, decision.

After Israel's attack against Hamas leaders in Qatar, crude oil prices continued to rise. Geopolitical concerns remained at the forefront of investors' thoughts after Poland and NATO scrambled their air defences in order to shoot down drones as a result of a Russian air strike on western Ukraine.

The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 0.8%. South Korea's KOSPI increased by 1.7%. Taiwan's equity benchmark reached a new record high of 1.5%.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.3% while mainland Chinese blue-chips rose 0.3%.

Overnight, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, as well as Dow Jones Industrial Average, each finished the day with new all-time records.

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool reveals that traders see a Fed rate cut next Wednesday as an almost certain thing. They even place odds of 8.4% on a half-point increase.

Investors were convinced that the Fed could not wait to support the economy any longer after a dismal payroll report last week.

The final obstacles to this view will be the readings of consumer and producer inflation on Wednesday and/or Thursday.

Kyle Rodda is a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. He said that an upside inflation surprise would cause the probability of a rate cut to be reduced, not just for September but also for future months.

According to current risk appetite, the rapid deterioration of U.S. data on the economy, especially jobs, is the reason that markets are pricing such aggressive easing by the Fed.

The markets have taken the court ruling, which temporarily prevented President Donald Trump from removing Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook. This case is likely to be heard by the Supreme Court.

Investors are closely following this unprecedented legal battle, as it could threaten the long-held independence of the central bank.

Treasury bonds in the United States fell for a second consecutive day on Wednesday. This pushed yields up.

After a nearly 3-basis-point increase on Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point, to 4,088%.

The equivalent yields on Japanese government bonds rose by 0.5 basis points, to 1.565%. This is a slight decline from the earlier increase after a successful auction of five-year bond.

When bond prices drop, yields increase.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures currency against six rivals retreated slightly to 97.707 and reversed earlier gains.

The dollar was unchanged at $1.1715 for the euro and down by 0.07% to 147.31 yen.

This Thursday, the European Central Bank will set its policy and it is expected that rates will remain unchanged.

Last month, economists were divided on whether the ECB would continue to reduce rates. However, recent data shows that inflation is close to 2% and unemployment has reached a new low.

On Friday of next week, the Bank of Japan will announce its latest policy decisions. It is widely expected that they will not raise rates this time.

Bloomberg and the BOJ published contradictory reports Tuesday regarding tone. Bloomberg reported that policymakers were looking at a hike in this year, whereas Bloomberg suggested the BOJ could wait a little longer before tightening policy.

Investors are also watching politics. They're concentrating on who will succeed Shigeru Shiba as Japan’s next Prime Minister, and the longevity of France's fifth newly appointed prime minister in just two years.

Gold prices rose by 0.5%, to $3644 an ounce. This is a drop from the previous day's record high of $3673.95.

Brent crude futures increased 1.1%, to $67.13 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures also rose 1.1%, to $63.34.

Prices settled at 0.6% higher in the previous session, after Israel claimed it had attacked Hamas leaders in Doha. Qatar's Prime Minister said that this attack threatened to derail talks between Hamas & Israel.

(source: Reuters)