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US CPC predicts 71% La Nina in Oct-Dec

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said that a transition from El Nino/Southern Oscillation neutral to La Nina will likely occur in the next few months. There is a 71% probability of La Nina between October and December. Climate Prediction Center reported on Thursday.

The U.S. forecaster said that "La Nina will be favored in the future, but chances of it occurring are expected to decrease from 54% between December 2025 and February 2026."

Why it's important

La Nina is a part of El Nino-Southern Oscillation, a climatic cycle that affects the water temperatures in central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

La Nina causes cooler water temperatures which increases the risk of droughts and floods. This can have an impact on crops. When ENSO neutral, water temperature stays around average, leading to better weather and possibly higher crop yields.

KEY QUOTES

Donald Keeney is an agricultural meteorologist with Vaisala. He said that if we do get a weak La Nina it will be brief and weak. All the models should warm back to neutral at the end of the calendar year.

Neutral conditions usually result in favorable conditions for growing in the north-central U.S. but dryer conditions in the Central and Southern Plains in the fall/winter. He added that the outlook for South America was a little more positive, particularly in central and northern Brazil.

CONTEXT

Japan's

The weather bureau reported on Wednesday that the chance of rain was 60%

Chance

The La Nina phenomena would not appear and normal weather conditions will continue into the Northern Hemisphere Winter.

The World Meteorological Organization

On Tuesday, it was reported that the return of La Nina could start to influence global weather patterns in September. Reporting by Noel John, Bengaluru. Editing by Mark Porter

(source: Reuters)