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The 300 kg gem found in the presidential palace of Madagascar was shown by the military ruler
Madagascar's interim President, who took power on the island nation in the Indian Ocean last month, unveiled a gem weighing 300 kg (661 pounds) that he claimed was found in the Presidential Palace. The Ambohitsorohitra State Palace, in Antananarivo's capital, Antananarivo, showed the dark boulder streaked with green crystal on Tuesday night. Expert analysis is still needed to determine the size and grade of the emerald that's embedded in the stone. Colonel Michael Randrianirina said, "This is an asset for the nation," as he stood next to the find. He promised "complete transparency" and said that "it might be sold". He did not give any details about how, when, and where the stone had been found. All he said was "we discovered this incredible treasure upon arrival" and that "we don't know why it was transported here". Carl Andriamparany, Mines Minister of Madagascar, called it a collector’s dream. He said that an emerald in its natural matrix was rare. Officials have not found a stone with a similar matrix documented anywhere in Madagascar. The government announced that the proceeds of a sale will go to the state treasury. (Reporting and writing by Lovasoa Rabary; Editing by Bate Felis and Alison Williams).
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Bangladesh court stops arbitration with India’s Adani Power for dues
The Bangladesh High Court halted arbitral proceedings on Wednesday between India's Adani Power and Bangladesh's power board over disputes regarding power supply payments. The Bangladesh Power Development Board and the company led by Indian billionaire Gautam Adian have been in dispute over unpaid electricity bills as part of an agreement that both parties signed in 2017. Adani and BPDB decided early this month to use an international arbitration process in order to settle disputes regarding Bangladesh's electricity supply payments. The court announced on Wednesday that arbitration would be suspended until a report is received from a committee formed by the high court to investigate fairness and any possible irregularities of the agreement between Bangladesh's government and Adani Group. Last year, the Bangladesh High Court ordered that a group of experts examine the contract between Adani and Bangladesh. Adani Power provides electricity from its 1,600 megawatt coal-fired Godda power station in eastern India. This plant meets almost a tenth the power needs of Bangladesh. Abdul Qayyum told reporters that if Adani begins arbitration proceedings in Singapore before the report is released, the investigation would be of no value. In December, the interim government of Bangladesh accused Adani for breaching the power-purchase agreement by refusing tax benefits to the Godda Plant that India had provided. Adani received a tariff from Bangladesh of 14,87 takas ($0.1220), per unit, during the fiscal period ending June 30, 2024. This was higher than the average 9.57 takas for power supplied by Indian companies. A spokesperson for the Adani Group said that the company had yet to review the court order. However, according to the agreement, any dispute between the parties must be resolved by the Singapore International Arbitration Centre which is outside the jurisdiction of Bangladeshi courts. BPDB didn't immediately respond to a comment request. Reporting by RumaPaul and SethuramanNR; Editing Maju Samuel
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Israeli airstrikes kill ten Palestinians in Gaza - a shivering ceasefire, say medics
Health authorities reported that Israeli airstrikes in Gaza killed 10 Palestinians on Wednesday, in an area under Hamas' control. The attacks occurred in a region of the Gaza Strip where a fragile ceasefire was in effect since October. Two people were reported dead in Shejaia, a suburb to the east of Gaza City. Four more died in Zeitoun, a nearby suburb. Four Palestinians were killed in a third airstrike in Mawasi, west of Khan Younis. Israel's military claimed that its forces had struck Hamas militants in Gaza who had fired at its troops, violating the ceasefire of nearly six weeks. No Israeli forces were hurt. The fragility of the truce has been demonstrated by repeated shooting incidents. Israel and Hamas are trading blame over what they both claim is a violation of the U.S. broker truce. This is the first step in President Donald Trump's plan to create a postwar Gaza. According to witnesses, medics and Palestinian media, all three attacks went beyond the imaginary "yellow lines" that were agreed upon between areas under Israeli control and Palestinian control. The Zeitoun attacks targeted a building owned by a muslim religious authority and the Khan Younis attacks targeted a U.N. run club. Both of these clubs housed displaced families. The ceasefire on October 10, which ended the two-year Gaza War, has helped to ease the conflict and allowed hundreds of thousands to return to Gaza. Israel has withdrawn troops from city positions and increased aid flows. Violence has not stopped completely. Palestinian health officials say Israeli forces killed 290 in Gaza strikes since the truce. Nearly half of those deaths occurred in one day, last week, when Israel retaliated against an attack on their troops. Israel claims that it has killed three soldiers since the ceasefire started and targeted scores of militants. (Reporting and editing by Nidal Al-Mughrabi, Howard Goller)
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Gold prices rise on demand for safe-haven assets ahead of US data
The gold price rose on Wednesday as investors sought out the safe haven asset in anticipation of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released later that day. This was also due to delayed U.S. Employment data on Thursday. At 11:25 am, spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,081.15 an ounce. ET (1625 GMT) after climbing more than 1% earlier in session. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 0.4%, to $4.081.50 an ounce. There's a safe-haven buy going on right now .... Bob Haberkorn, RJO Futures' market strategist, said that the (job) figures have been slightly softer and there is jitter in the equity markets. The global stock market stabilized Wednesday after another sell-off driven by fears over AI valuations. However, the mood is cautious as we await what could be a make-or break earnings report from chip giant Nvidia this week and U.S. job data. The Federal Reserve will release its minutes from the October meeting at 2 pm ET today. Today, policymakers will be able to clarify their stance on a possible rate cut. At the meeting, the central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis point. However, Chair Jerome Powell warned against further rate cuts in this year. The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders now expect a 49% probability of a rate reduction, as opposed to the 46% they saw earlier in the session. Gold that does not yield tends to perform well in low interest rate environments and times of economic uncertainty. The release of the September job report, which was delayed because of the U.S. shutdown of government, is also expected on Thursday. This will provide an early indication of the economic health. The September employment report is expected to show that 50,000 new jobs were created during the month, according to economists polled. Data showed that in mid-October, the number of Americans who received unemployment benefits reached a record high. Other than that, silver spot rose by 1.1%, to $51.26 an ounce. Platinum increased by 0.9%, to $1.549.10 and palladium dropped 0.8%, to $1.389.45. (Reporting and editing by Alexandra Hudson in Bengaluru)
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Bangladesh court stops arbitration with India’s Adani Power for dues
The Bangladesh High Court halted arbitral proceedings on Wednesday between India's Adani Power and Bangladesh's power board over disputes regarding power supply payments. The Bangladesh Power Development Board and the company led by Indian billionaire Gautam Adian have been in dispute over unpaid electricity bills as part of an agreement that both parties signed in 2017. Adani and BPDB decided early this month to use an international arbitration process in order to settle disputes regarding Bangladesh's electricity supply payments. The court announced on Wednesday that arbitration would be suspended until a report is received from a committee formed by the high court to investigate fairness and any possible irregularities of the agreement between Bangladesh's government and Adani Group. Last year, the Bangladesh High Court ordered that a group of experts examine the contract between Adani and Bangladesh. Adani Power provides electricity from its 1,600 megawatt coal-fired Godda power station in eastern India. This plant meets almost a tenth the power needs of Bangladesh. Abdul Qayyum told reporters that if Adani begins arbitration proceedings in Singapore before the report is released, the investigation would be of no value. In December, the interim government of Bangladesh accused Adani for breaching the power-purchase agreement by refusing tax benefits to the Godda Plant that India had provided. Adani received a tariff from Bangladesh of 14,87 takas ($0.1220), per unit, during the fiscal period ending June 30, 2024. This was higher than the average 9.57 takas for power supplied by Indian companies. Adani Power and BPDB didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. (Reporting and editing by Maju Sam; Sethuraman N R and Ruma Paul)
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Brazil's Lula presses COP30 negotiators to reach an early climate agreement
Brazil's President was scheduled to meet with key negotiators on Wednesday at the COP30 Summit as part of a push to reach a deal before schedule on some the most controversial issues in the global talks on climate change, including fossil fuels. Nearly 200 countries have gathered in the Amazonian city of Belem for a two-week U.N. Summit to increase multilateral action on climate change. The United States was absent, but the United States is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Brazil, the host country, hopes to break the trend of recent climate summits that have run past their deadlines by attempting to approve a package on Wednesday and to address the remaining issues on Friday. FRESH DRAFT ESTIMATED ON WEDNESDAY By late morning, the COP30 Presidency had not yet announced a new draft of the original deal. The first version published on Tuesday presented a variety of options that divided opinion. According to Brazilian officials the return of President Luiz inacio Lula da Silveira to the conference gave the talks a new political boost. He was to meet with key negotiators and U.N. secretary-general Antonio Guterres. Brazil and 80 other nations that support it want to come to an agreement to help spur action in 2023 on the agreement made at the COP28 for a transition away from fossil-fuels. But the idea of creating an action plan to guide this transition has been rejected so far by others, Andre Correa do Lago, Brazil's COP30 president, said on Tuesday. VANUATU: 'WE HAVE BLOCKERS' Vanuatu, a Pacific island nation, Vanuatu’s climate minister Ralph Regenvanu said Saudi Arabia was among those who were opposed. Saudi Arabia didn't immediately respond to requests for comments. Regenvanu stated, "I believe it will be very difficult... because we have blockers." The package also includes a number of other contentious issues, including how wealthy countries will finance poorer countries' switch to clean energy and what needs to be done to close the gap between emissions reductions promised and those required to stop temperature rises. The poorer countries, who are already suffering from the effects of global warming, rally for a strong result. We want ambition in finance. "We want ambition on adaption. "We want to see ambitious plans for the transition," Jiwoh Abdulai said, Sierra Leone’s climate minister. "We want to make sure that we are living on a sustainable path, not only for our generation but also for future generations." Five sources said that plans to launch a U.N. supported global market to trade carbon offset credits have hit a snag due to disagreements between governments over funding. (Additional reporting by William James, Editing by Richard Valdmanis, Alison Williams.)
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Gold gains 1% as demand for safe-havens increases ahead of US data
Gold prices rose over 1% Wednesday as investors sought out the safe haven asset in anticipation of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released later that day. Also, the delayed U.S. jobs data for Thursday was a factor. At 9:36 am, spot gold rose 1.2% to $4,116.26 an ounce. ET (1436 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 1.3% to $4117.10 an ounce. There's a safe haven buy-in going on right now .... Bob Haberkorn, RJO Futures' market strategist, said that the (job) figures have been slightly softer and there is a jitter in the equity markets. The global shares stabilised on Wednesday after another selloff sparked by fears over AI valuations. However, the mood was cautious as investors awaited what could be a make-or break earnings report from chip giant Nvidia, and U.S. job data later this week. Data showed that on Tuesday, the number of Americans who received unemployment benefits reached a two-month-high in mid-October. The Federal Reserve will release its minutes of the October meeting at 2 pm. Today, policymakers will be able to clarify their stance on a possible rate cut. At the meeting, the central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis point. However, Chair Jerome Powell warned against further rate cuts in this year. Gold that does not yield tends to perform well in low interest rate environments and times of economic uncertainty. The release of the September job report, which was delayed because of the U.S. shutdown of government, is also expected on Thursday. This will provide a preliminary gauge of the economy's health. The September employment report is expected to show that 50,000 new jobs were created during the month, according to economists polled. The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders now expect a 51% probability of a rate reduction, up from 46% in the earlier session. FEDWATCH Other than that, silver spot rose 2.3%, to $51.87 an ounce. Platinum increased 1.3%, to $1.544.80. Palladium dropped 0.5%, to $1.396.50. (Reporting and editing by Alexandra Hudson in Bengaluru)
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Indian state regulator delays Adani's power deal over cost issues
A filing on Wednesday revealed that the power regulator in Uttar Pradesh, northern India, has deferred approval of an Adani Group coal power project worth $2 billion due to a lack of clarity about costs. This was six months after its announcement. Adani Power won in May a contract for the supply of 1,500 megawatts from a coal-fired plant in Uttar Pradesh, at a cost of 5.38 rupees per unit ($0.0638). Lack of clarity on costs is due to a July decision by the Indian Government to relax rules for certain coal plants that install equipment which would remove sulfur dioxide while burning coal. Coal plant operators are expected to save billions of rupees through the easing of regulations. In an order, the state power regulator stated that Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation failed to provide their own analysis of cost savings or savings resulting from the non-installation of the equipment. The commission ordered the state utility to add Adani Power as a party in the case, and to submit detailed cost assessments to the commission within two weeks. The case will now be heard on December 18. In its previous hearing, held in September, the regulator stated that the utility had to have notified the commission of any changes in fixed charges and operating costs resulting from the fact that the equipment was no longer required. The utility also claimed that it should have evaluated the impact of the revised rates for goods and services taxes on coal as part of the power supply contract. Indian state electricity distribution companies are signing long-term agreements with coal-fired generators in order to meet an expected surge in evening demand. This is despite efforts by the country to increase its clean energy capacity. (Reporting and editing by Shreya Biwas; Sethuraman N.R.)
Russell: Crude oil will be driven by geopolitics and mismatch in supply-demand over the long-term, not by crude oil itself.
Two long-term shifts will affect the global crude oil markets, including how cargoes are transported and priced.
First, it is a question of supply and demand. The vast majority of growth in demand comes from Asia while the growth in supply comes primarily from Americas outside the United States.
Second, energy markets are increasingly influenced by political factors. This increases the risk that large blocks of supply will be cut off from the demand centers. As Europe has seen in its decision to stop buying Russian oil after Moscow's invasion into Ukraine.
The oil market will be forced to adapt to these two factors, including longer vessel journeys, the need to obtain suitable crude for refinery configurations, and pricing new flows.
Analysts from Argus media presented a presentation at this week's APPEC oil meeting in Singapore that highlighted the shift to new production coming out of Americas.
Argus reported that crude from the Americas represented 85% of the incremental supply globally from non-OPEC non-OPEC from 2024 until 2030. This amounted 3.63 million barrels a day (bpd).
The United States is expected to increase its output only modestly in the coming years, despite being the largest oil producer in the world.
Canada, Brazil and Guyana are the largest contributors, followed by Argentina, Suriname and Suriname. Mexico's contribution is expected to decline as the fields mature.
Argus reported that the East of Suez market is the most likely to see a demand increase, with India expected to lead the way with a gain of 2,000,000 bpd between 2024 and 2030.
China, on the other hand, is expected to lose 100,000 bpd due to its rapid electrification of its fleet.
Argus predicts that oil demand will rise by 1 million bpd from 2024 to 30 in the Middle East and Africa, as well as by 600,000 bpd for Latin America.
The East of Suez market is expected to grow at 90%, which is the most important thing.
According to commodity analysts Kpler, there is evidence that flows are increasing from the Americas towards Asia. Volumes reached a record quarterly high of 4,09 million bpd during the period of April to June.
The second quarter saw an increase of 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to the first. This meant that Asia's seaborne oil imports were about 16% derived from oil imported from the Americas.
CHALLENGES
It's reasonable to assume that moving crude oil from the Americas into Asia, even though it will cost more, is feasible.
The new grades are more difficult to deal with, as they tend to be lighter and sweeter with the exceptions of Canada's heavy oil.
There will likely be an excess of sweet, light crudes, at a moment when electrification is increasing and the demand for gasoline, which is the main product of such grades, is decreasing.
How much oil will cost if more oil is moved from America to Asia?
Will West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for light crude, become more important than Brent? Or will cargoes be priced more based on the delivered to Asia basis instead?
How will geopolitics affect crude markets in the long term?
Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has made it very clear that energy is a tool he uses to achieve his political goals. He makes commitments to purchase U.S. crude oil and liquefied gas a key part of any trade negotiations he holds with other countries.
While this could boost the purchases of U.S. oil by countries who have signed deals, like Japan and South Korea; it will also mean that countries without an agreement, like China and India, would likely shun U.S. fuel.
Although crude markets are free of politics, there is a good chance that they will become more polarised over the next few years. Importing nations may be forced to choose between Trump-approved suppliers and those who he does not approve.
Trump's ability to change allegiances quickly could complicate oil flow while he is in office.
You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by Stephen Coates).
(source: Reuters)