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Boeing maintains its 20-year forecast of jet demand, despite the Iran War impact
Boeing's latest?market?projection, released on Saturday in England, just ahead of the Farnborough Airshow, maintained the strong forecast it made for global demand?for new commercial planes over the next 20 years. The U.S. aircraft manufacturer's forecast for 2025 was nearly identical. Boeing predicted that the industry would deliver 43,625 jetliners and cargo aircraft around the globe from 2026 to 2045. This includes 33,545 single aisle jets, 7,715 broadbody aircraft, and 930 factory built freighters. Airbus, Boeing's European competitor, cut its forecast by 1% this month to 42,060 new aircraft. The reason given was the Iran War and trade tensions. Boeing anticipates a growth in air passenger traffic of 2.3% for this year. This is less than half of the 5.3% growth rate last year. It anticipates growth of 6%-7% by 2027, and 5%-6.6% by 2028. Boeing Commercial Marketing Vice president Darren Hulst said that the passenger traffic worldwide will be at its current level by 2028. He said that the current slowdown was different from the demand shock of several years caused by the COVID-19 epidemic. Boeing predicts that passenger traffic will grow by 4% per year over the next 20-years, while cargo traffic is expected to increase by 3.7%. The jet fleet will expand by 3%, and the global economy is expected to grow 2.5%. The demand for new aircraft is growing faster than the planemakers' ability to deliver them. Hulst stated that passenger traffic had recovered to pre-pandemic level last year, but new jet deliveries remained below 2018 output. The company expects a shortage of around 2,000 aircraft by 2026. Single-aisle shortages are unlikely to be resolved until the end of this decade, while widebody shortages will likely persist well into the early 30s. The outlook assumes that demand will be split roughly evenly between replacements and growth. Boeing projects that 21,475 of the deliveries will be older jets, and 22,150 to support fleet expansion. Global fleet is expected to grow from 28,000 aircraft by 2025 to 50,000 aircraft by 2045. New-generation aircraft will increase from 32% to 92%. China will account for 21% of all deliveries. Eurasia is next at 20%. North America, South/Southeast Asia, and the Middle East/Africa are each at 19%. Latin America, Oceania/Northeast Asia, and Oceania/Northeast Asia, at 5%, follow. Boeing's outlook reflects a recovering market - but still constrained by the fragility of supply chains and manufacturing capacity. Boeing faces delays in certification for key programs, including the 737 MAX 7 & 10 and 777-9. Hulst stated that the long-term demand is supported by migration, trade, tourism and expansion of airline networks. He said, "The reasons why we travel or why goods are moved don't change." (Reporting from Seattle by Dan Catchpole; editing by David Gregorio).
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Clariant rejects Dow Europe’s $1.3 billion claim under the Competition Law
Clariant announced on Friday that it is rejecting the damages claim of 1.1 billion euros ($1.26 billion) filed by Dow 'Europe against four companies. The claim was made for an alleged violation of competition law in the ethylene buying market. In the past, Swiss specialty chemical manufacturers have received similar claims from OMV BASF and TotalEnergies. Dow announced in a letter to? that it filed a claim for "significant losses" sustained by its European operations, claiming the defendants' anticompetitive conduct lowered ethylene prices. The European Commission fined Clariant in 2020, Orbia of Mexico, and Celanese of the United States 260 million Euros for colluding with each other to keep ethylene prices low. Clariant's statement said that it "firmly rejects (Dow Europe’s) allegation" and will "adamantly defend their position in the proceeding." It added that the claim had been filed with a court in Dortmund, Germany. Clariant didn't name the other companies in its statement. Clariant added that "substantiated evidence" had been gathered that "the?conduct of parties?didn't produce a?any impact on the market."
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Pampa Energia invests $2.7 billion into Argentine urea factory
The Argentinean energy company Pampa 'Energia announced on Friday that it will invest $2.7billion to build a granulated urea facility in 'Bahia Blanca', a town located south of the province of Buenos Aires. The project is aimed at supplying fertilizer to Argentina - one of the largest exporters in the world of grains and agricultural products - as well as to Brazil, another major producer of farming goods. In a press release, Pampa Energia chairman Marcelo Mindlin stated that the plant would allow the country to have its own urea, making it more competitive and predictable. It will also enable the nation to export to other countries in the'region' and 'worldwide. Pampa says the plant will begin producing 2.1 millions metric tons urea per year by?the middle of 2029. The company stated that the project would be the'start of a brand new business line for 'Pampa Energia. It will also generate a source of foreign currency in Argentina with an estimated contribution of a little over $1 billion per year through exports and import substitution. Pampa said that it has already submitted its?project for Argentina's incentive -regime known as RIGI - which offers tax advantages and other benefits to companies. (Reporting by Eliana Raszewski;)
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Why are parts of North America covered in smoke from wildfires in Canada?
In recent years, orange-hued skylines, wildfire smoke, and scorched forests have become commonplaces in North America as global warming has 'contributed to massive forest fires. These fires are primarily in the north of Canada, which is home to some of?the world's largest intact forests. Canada has experienced more wildfires this year than in the previous two years. The area that has been burned is also higher than the average for the last 10 years. Check out these facts about recent wildfires and smoke. Why does Canada have so many wildfires? Canada, which is the second largest country in the world by area, contains nearly a 10th of all the forest land on the planet and 24% of its boreal forests. Many are not accessible by road or inhabited. Forest fires are an important part of nature that helps to eliminate pests and unhealthy shrubbery. In recent years the size and intensity have increased. Climate change is causing temperatures to rise, resulting in drier forest. Fires spread more quickly in drier forests. Lightning or campfires can start fires in more populated regions. Mike Flannigan is a professor at Thompson Rivers University in British Columbia who specializes in wildland fires. He noted that the area of land burned has nearly quadrupled across Canada since the 1970s. He said that warmer temperatures have extended the wildfire season, and more lightning has also caused fires. WHAT HAPPENED OVER THE LAST WEEK? Smoke follows the wind as?fires grow and more forest is burned. Toronto experienced the worst air quality in the world earlier this week due to fires from northern and western Ontario, as well as northern Minnesota. Then it spread to New York and Washington. Detroit and Chicago had the worst air quality by Friday. Can the fires be stopped? Although some fires cannot be avoided, the government is trying to protect their communities by closing forests to prevent fires caused by humans, using non-flammable materials in high-risk areas and being more prepared. What has Canada done so far? The federal government has increased funding to fight wildfires. This includes C$316.7 (or $227 million) over five years for aerial firefighting capability and C$47.8 for Parks Canada's?National Fire Management Program. Ontario spent C$271,000,000 on emergency firefighting during 2025-26. This was more than its budget of C$135,000,000. The budget for 2026-2027 is C$150 millions. WHAT MORE CAN BE DONE? Experts and politicians started calling for a National Response Organization after Canada's largest wildfire season in terms of area burned, 2023. These calls increased after fires in the year 2024 destroyed a third of Jasper, a tourist town. Canada is the lone Group of Seven nation without a federal agency dedicated to fighting wildfires. The provinces are responsible for a large part of firefighting. The Canadian Senate released a report in June 2026 that proposed funding for a "national fleet" of modern firefighting planes, as well as other measures. The report noted that wildfires have become a crisis, citing the area burned in the past few years. The federal Office of Emergency Management and Community Resilience announced that it is evaluating recommendations for wildfire response and possible creation of a federal agency to manage emergency situations. The leasing of 10 firefighting planes is one way it has boosted the capacity of provincial and territorial firefighting agencies to combat severe wildfires. Canada has approximately 126,000 firefighters, 90,000 of whom are volunteers, who work for towns, villages, and cities. Ken McMullen is the president of the Canadian Association of Fire Chiefs. He said that only 3,000-5,000 firefighters in Canada are trained to fight wildland fires. McMullen stated that a centralized approach could help with coordinating, training, and moving equipment and firefighters across the country if needed. What are some other areas with wildfires? According to the National Interagency Fire Center, the United States also has an above-average year for fires, with 3.7 millions acres burning year-to date in 2026, compared to a 10-year-average of 2.7million acres. According to the U.S. Drought monitor, fires are burning more intensely and consuming more land in the U.S. West after a record low winter snowpack caused drought conditions to spread to 90% of the region. According to NIFC, the United States had?40,000 wildfires in its first half of this year. This is well above the 10-year average, which was around 31,000 at this time. A wildfire that burned an area as large as San Francisco in northeastern Spain forced thousands of people to flee. This summer, there have been nearly 20 reported wildfires in England and Wales. A historic forest near Paris has also burned and turned the skies black. (Reporting from Nivedita Balu, Toronto; additional reporting by Andrew Hay. Editing by Caroline Stauffer, Deepa Babington and Caroline Stauffer)
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World Cup Final hardly affected by wildfire smoke
AccuWeather, the?forecaster, said that Canadian wildfire smoke will have only a minimal impact on Sunday's World Cup final at New Jersey Stadium in New York. More than 80,000 people are expected to attend this event, which will see Argentina take on Spain for soccer’s most coveted prize. This week, heavy?smoke from wildfires burning in Canada blanketed a large part of the U.S. and prompted air quality warnings. AccuWeather stated that air quality in East Rutherford (New Jersey) may not be at "good levels" on Sunday, but fans and players should expect an improvement from the "poor or unhealthy" conditions predicted for Saturday. It may not be as good as Saturday, but at least it won't be as bad. The weather will be a little less humid than Saturday. This will lead to?more comfortable? conditions, said Adam Douty. New York New Jersey was awash in smoke and hazy skies this week as local authorities asked residents to limit strenuous outdoor activities. The rain forecast for Saturday is expected to help disperse the smoke. (Reporting and editing by Christian Radnedge in New York)
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Why is the smoke from wildfires in Canada blanketing North America?
In recent years, orange-hued skylines, smoke from wildfires and scorched forests have become commonplace in North America as global warming has contributed to "massive" forest fires. The majority of these fires are located in the north of Canada, home to some if the largest and most intact forests on earth. Canada is experiencing more wildfires than in the past two years. A larger area has burned this year as compared to the 10-year average. Here are some facts regarding the recent smoke and wildfires. Why does Canada have so many wildfires? Canada, which is the second largest country in the world, contains nearly a 10th of all the forest land on the planet and 24% of its boreal forests. Most of these forests are not accessible by road, and many are uninhabited. Forest fires are an important part of nature that helps to eliminate pests and unhealthy shrubbery. In recent years, however, both the size and intensity have increased. Climate change and rising temperatures cause drier forest conditions. Fires spread more quickly in drier forests. Lightning or campfires can start fires in more densely populated areas. Mike Flannigan is a professor at Thompson Rivers University, British Columbia. He has studied wildland fires. Since the 1970s, the area of land burned in Canada almost quadrupled. He said that warmer temperatures have extended the wildfire season and increased lightning has also caused fires. What happened this week? Smoke follows the wind as fires grow and forest areas are scorched. The world's poorest air quality was brought to Toronto by fires in northern Ontario, western Ontario and northern Minnesota earlier this week. It then spread to New York City and Washington. Detroit and Chicago had the worst air quality by Friday. Can the fires be stopped? Some fires cannot be avoided, but governments are working to protect their communities by closing forests to prevent fires caused by humans, using non-flammable materials in high-risk areas and being more prepared. What has Canada done so far? The federal government has increased funding to fight wildfires. This includes C$316.7 millions ($227million) for aerial firefighting capability over five years, and C$47.8 for Parks Canada National Fire Management Program. Ontario spent C$271 millions on emergency firefighting during 2025-26. This was more than its budget of C$135million. The budget for 2026-2027 is C$150 millions. WHAT ELSE COULD BE DONE MORE? Experts and politicians started calling for a National Response Organization after Canada's largest wildfire season in 2023 by area burned. These calls increased after fires in the year 2024 destroyed a third of Jasper, a tourist town. Canada is the only Group of Seven nation without a federal agency dedicated to fighting wildfires. The provinces are responsible for a large part of firefighting. The Canadian Senate released a report in?June of 2026 that included a call for the creation of a federal coordination office for wildfires, emergency response, and funding for a modern fleet firefighting aircraft. The report noted that wildfires have become a crisis, citing the area burned in the past few years. The federal government didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. Canada has approximately 126,000 firefighters working for towns, cities and villages. About 90,000 of these are volunteers. Ken McMullen is the president of the Canadian Association of Fire Chiefs. He said that only 3,000 to 5,000 fire fighters are trained in Canada to fight wildland blazes. McMullen stated that a centralized approach could help coordinate, train and move firefighters and equipment throughout the country when needed. What are some other areas with wildfires? According to the National Interagency Fire Center, 2026 has been a fire-year above average in the United States, with more than 3.7 million acres burning year-to date, compared to 2.7 million acres on average over ten years. According to the U.S. Drought monitor, fires are burning more intensely and consuming more land in the U.S. West after a record low winter snowpack triggered drought conditions across 90% of the region. According to NIFC, the United States has seen 40,000 wildfires this year. This is well over its 10-year average, which was around 31,000 at this time. A wildfire that burned an area as large as San Francisco in northeastern Spain forced thousands of people to flee. This summer, there have been nearly 20 reported wildfires in England and Wales. A historic forest near Paris has also burned and turned the skies black. (Reporting from Nivedita Balu, Toronto; additional reporting by Andrew Hay. Editing by Caroline Stauffer, Deepa Babington and Caroline Stauffer)
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Why is the smoke from wildfires in Canada blanketing North America?
In recent years, orange-hued skylines, smoke from wildfires and scorched forests have become commonplace in North America as global warming has contributed to "massive" forest fires. The majority of these fires are located in the north of Canada, home to some if the largest and most intact forests on earth. Canada is experiencing more wildfires than in the past two years. A larger area has burned this year as compared to the 10-year average. Here are some facts regarding the recent smoke and wildfires. Why does Canada have so many wildfires? Canada is the second largest country in the world. It has a total of nearly 10% of the forest area of the planet and 24% of its boreal forests. Most of these forests are not accessible by road, and many are uninhabited. Forest fires are an important part of nature that helps to eliminate pests and unhealthy shrubbery. In recent years, however, both the size and intensity have increased. Climate change and rising temperatures cause drier forest conditions. Fires spread more quickly in drier forests. Lightning or campfires often start fires in more densely populated areas. Mike Flannigan is a professor at Thompson Rivers University, British Columbia. He noted that the area of land burned in Canada almost quadrupled since 1970. He said that warmer temperatures have extended the wildfire season and increased lightning has also caused fires. WHAT HAPPENED OVER THE LAST WEEK? Smoke follows the wind as fires grow and forest areas are scorched. The world's poorest air quality was brought to Toronto by fires in northern Ontario, western Ontario and northern Minnesota earlier this week. It then spread to New York City and Washington. Detroit and Chicago had the worst air quality by Friday. CAN THE FIRE BE STOPPED? While certain fires cannot be avoided, governments are working to protect their communities by preventing fires caused by humans, utilizing non-flammable materials in high-risk areas, and being more prepared. What has Canada done so far? The federal government has increased funding to fight wildfires. This includes C$316.7 millions ($227million) for aerial firefighting capability over five years, and C$47.8 for Parks Canada National Fire Management Program. Ontario spent C$271 millions on emergency firefighting during 2025-26. This was more than its budget of C$135million. The government has set aside C$150 millions for 2026-2027. WHAT MORE COULD be DONE? Experts and politicians started calling for a National Response Organization after Canada's largest wildfire season in 2023 by area burned. These calls increased after the fires of 2024 destroyed a third of Jasper, a tourist town. Canada is the only Group of Seven nation without a federal agency dedicated to fighting wildfires. The provinces are responsible for a large part of firefighting. The Canadian Senate released a report in?June of 2026 that proposed a federal coordination office for wildfires, emergency response, and funding for a modern fleet of firefighting planes, among other things. The report noted that wildfires have become a crisis, citing the area burned in the past few years. The federal government didn't immediately respond to our request for a comment. Canada has approximately 126,000 firefighters working for towns, cities and villages. About 90,000 of these are volunteers. Ken McMullen is the president of the Canadian Association of Fire Chiefs. He said that only 3,000 to 5,000 fire fighters are trained in Canada to fight wildland blazes. McMullen stated that a centralized approach could help coordinate, train, and move firefighters and equipment throughout the country when needed. What are some other areas with wildfires? According to the National Interagency Fire Center, 2026 has been a fire-year above average in the United States, with more than 3.7 million acres burning year-to date, compared to a 10-year-average of 2.7 millions acres. According to the U.S. Drought monitor, fires are burning more intensely and consuming more land in the U.S. West after a record low winter snowpack triggered drought conditions across 90% of the region. According to NIFC, the United States has seen 40,000 wildfires this year. This is well above its 10-year average, which was around 31,000 at this time. A wildfire that burned an area as large as San Francisco in northeastern Spain forced thousands of people to flee. This summer, there have been nearly 20 reported wildfires in England and Wales. A historic forest near Paris has also burned and turned the skies black. (Reporting from Nivedita Balu, Toronto; additional reporting by Andrew Hay. Editing by Caroline Stauffer, Deepa Babington and Caroline Stauffer)
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Why is the smoke from wildfires in Canada blanketing North America?
In recent years, orange-hued skylines, smoke from wildfires and scorched forests have become commonplace in North America as global warming has contributed to "massive" forest fires. The majority of these fires are located in the north of Canada, home to some if the largest and most intact forests on earth. Canada is experiencing more wildfires than in the past two years. A larger area has burned compared to the 10-year average. Here are some interesting facts about recent wildfires and smoke. Why does Canada have so many wildfires? Canada is the second largest country in the world. It has nearly one tenth the total area of forest on the planet and 24% of its boreal forests. Most of these forests are not accessible by road, and many are uninhabited. Forest fires are an important part of nature that helps to eliminate pests and unhealthy shrubbery. In recent years, however, both the size and intensity have increased. Climate change and rising temperatures cause drier forest conditions. Fires spread more quickly in drier forests. Lightning or campfires often start fires in more densely populated areas. Mike Flannigan is a professor at Thompson Rivers University, British Columbia. He noted that the area of land burned in Canada almost quadrupled since 1970. He said that warmer temperatures have extended the wildfire season and increased lightning has also caused fires. WHAT HAPPENED OVER THE LAST WEEK? Smoke follows the wind as fires grow and forest areas are scorched. The world's poorest air quality was brought to Toronto by fires in northern Ontario, western Ontario and northern Minnesota earlier this week. It then spread to New York City and Washington. Detroit and Chicago had the worst air quality by Friday. CAN THE FIRE BE STOPPED? Although some fires cannot be avoided, governments are working to protect their communities by closing forests to prevent fires caused by humans, using non-flammable materials in high-risk areas and being more prepared. What has Canada done so far? The federal government has increased funding to fight wildfires. This includes C$316.7 millions ($227million) for aerial firefighting capability over five years, and C$47.8 for Parks Canada National Fire Management Program. Ontario spent C$271 millions on emergency firefighting during 2025-26. This was more than its budget of C$135million. The government has set aside C$150 millions for 2026-2027. WHAT MORE COULD be DONE? Experts and politicians started calling for a National Response Organization after Canada's largest wildfire season in 2023 by area burned. These calls increased after the fires of 2024 destroyed a third of Jasper, a tourist town. Canada is the only Group of Seven nation without a federal agency dedicated to fighting wildfires. The provinces are responsible for a large part of firefighting. The Canadian Senate released a report in?June of 2026 that proposed a federal coordination office for wildfires, emergency response, and funding for a modern fleet of firefighting planes, among other things. The report noted that wildfires have become a crisis, citing the area burned in the past few years. The federal government didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. Canada has approximately 126,000 firefighters working for towns, cities and villages. About 90,000 of these are volunteers. Ken McMullen is the president of the Canadian Association of Fire Chiefs. He said that only 3,000 to 5,000 fire fighters are trained in Canada to fight wildland blazes. McMullen stated that a centralized approach could help coordinate, train, and move firefighters and equipment throughout the country when needed. What are some other areas with wildfires? According to the National Interagency Fire Center, 2026 has been a fire-year above average in the United States, with more than 3.7 million acres burning year-to date, compared to 2.7 million acres on average over ten years. According to the U.S. Drought monitor, fires are burning more intensely and consuming more land in the U.S. West after a record low winter snowpack triggered drought conditions across 90% of the region. According to NIFC, the United States has seen 40,000 wildfires this year. This is well above its 10-year average, which was around 31,000 at this time. A wildfire that burned an area as large as San Francisco in northeastern Spain forced thousands of people to flee. This summer, there have been nearly 20 reported wildfires in England and Wales. A historic forest near Paris has also burned and turned the skies black. (Reporting from Nivedita Balu, Toronto; additional reporting by Andrew Hay. Editing by Caroline Stauffer, Deepa Babington and Caroline Stauffer)
Russell: Crude oil will be driven by geopolitics and mismatch in supply-demand over the long-term, not by crude oil itself.
Two long-term shifts will affect the global crude oil markets, including how cargoes are transported and priced.
First, it is a question of supply and demand. The vast majority of growth in demand comes from Asia while the growth in supply comes primarily from Americas outside the United States.
Second, energy markets are increasingly influenced by political factors. This increases the risk that large blocks of supply will be cut off from the demand centers. As Europe has seen in its decision to stop buying Russian oil after Moscow's invasion into Ukraine.
The oil market will be forced to adapt to these two factors, including longer vessel journeys, the need to obtain suitable crude for refinery configurations, and pricing new flows.
Analysts from Argus media presented a presentation at this week's APPEC oil meeting in Singapore that highlighted the shift to new production coming out of Americas.
Argus reported that crude from the Americas represented 85% of the incremental supply globally from non-OPEC non-OPEC from 2024 until 2030. This amounted 3.63 million barrels a day (bpd).
The United States is expected to increase its output only modestly in the coming years, despite being the largest oil producer in the world.
Canada, Brazil and Guyana are the largest contributors, followed by Argentina, Suriname and Suriname. Mexico's contribution is expected to decline as the fields mature.
Argus reported that the East of Suez market is the most likely to see a demand increase, with India expected to lead the way with a gain of 2,000,000 bpd between 2024 and 2030.
China, on the other hand, is expected to lose 100,000 bpd due to its rapid electrification of its fleet.
Argus predicts that oil demand will rise by 1 million bpd from 2024 to 30 in the Middle East and Africa, as well as by 600,000 bpd for Latin America.
The East of Suez market is expected to grow at 90%, which is the most important thing.
According to commodity analysts Kpler, there is evidence that flows are increasing from the Americas towards Asia. Volumes reached a record quarterly high of 4,09 million bpd during the period of April to June.
The second quarter saw an increase of 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to the first. This meant that Asia's seaborne oil imports were about 16% derived from oil imported from the Americas.
CHALLENGES
It's reasonable to assume that moving crude oil from the Americas into Asia, even though it will cost more, is feasible.
The new grades are more difficult to deal with, as they tend to be lighter and sweeter with the exceptions of Canada's heavy oil.
There will likely be an excess of sweet, light crudes, at a moment when electrification is increasing and the demand for gasoline, which is the main product of such grades, is decreasing.
How much oil will cost if more oil is moved from America to Asia?
Will West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for light crude, become more important than Brent? Or will cargoes be priced more based on the delivered to Asia basis instead?
How will geopolitics affect crude markets in the long term?
Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has made it very clear that energy is a tool he uses to achieve his political goals. He makes commitments to purchase U.S. crude oil and liquefied gas a key part of any trade negotiations he holds with other countries.
While this could boost the purchases of U.S. oil by countries who have signed deals, like Japan and South Korea; it will also mean that countries without an agreement, like China and India, would likely shun U.S. fuel.
Although crude markets are free of politics, there is a good chance that they will become more polarised over the next few years. Importing nations may be forced to choose between Trump-approved suppliers and those who he does not approve.
Trump's ability to change allegiances quickly could complicate oil flow while he is in office.
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These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by Stephen Coates).
(source: Reuters)