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US stocks reach record highs as weak employment data fuels rate-cut bets

U.S. stock prices briefly reached record highs before trading lower on Friday. Data showing that U.S. employment growth slowed in August led investors double down on their bets the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates this month by up to 50 basis points.

The speculation that the Fed would lower rates more aggressively sent Treasury yields tumbling and the U.S. Dollar plummeting, but gold reached a record high of $3,600 an ounce. Equity markets are viewed as a positive by many investors when interest rates drop. This could result in lower borrowing costs for business. Gold, which doesn't pay interest, tends to shine as well when rates are low, and there is a lot of uncertainty.

Art Hogan, strategist at B Riley Wealth Management, Boston, stated that "this number today puts back on the table a rate cut of 50 basis points at the next policy meeting." "More importantly, I believe 75-basis point before the end the year is pretty much a lock." The U.S. government reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000 jobs in August, after a 79,000-job increase upwardly revised in July. This was below the forecast of 75,000.

S&P 500 Index reached a record of 6,532.65 in early trading before pulling back and being down 0.32%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new record in the early minutes of trading before slipping 0.5%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite Index remained unchanged.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 8.3 basis points, or 6.4 basis point, in line with the expectation of lower rates.

The dollar index fell 0.5% to 97.747, as lower Treasury yields affected the U.S. Dollar. The euro rose by 0.6% to $1.17625, thanks to a softer dollar.

In Europe, STOXX 600 fell 0.2% in Europe, while the FTSE 100 remained unchanged. France's CAC 40 dropped 0.3%. The MSCI World Equity Index finished just 0.13% up due to a muted equity performance.

Olu Sonola is the head of U.S. Economic Research at Fitch Ratings, New York. He said that the warning bell that was ringing in the U.S. Labor Market a month earlier just got louder. A weaker than expected jobs report is almost certain to lead to a 25 basis-point rate reduction later this month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already reinforced speculation about rate cuts with an unexpectedly dovish address at the Fed symposium held in Jackson Hole last month. The market sentiment has improved in recent days, after the global stock markets fell this week, and European long-dated bond rates reached their highest levels in years. Investors were concerned about various countries' finances. France's 30 year yield was 4.3873% on Friday, down from its peak of 4.523% a day earlier, and the UK 30-year yield was 5.553%. This is after borrowing costs reached their highest levels since 1998 in the previous week. The benchmark German 10-year yield was 2.7051%. Data released on Friday revealed that German industrial orders fell unexpectedly in July. The U.S. has signed an agreement to lower auto tariffs for Japan after months of negotiation. The dollar fell 0.7% against the Japanese yen.

The oil prices fell for a third day in a row, before a weekend meeting between OPEC producers and their allies. Brent crude futures closed 2.2% lower, at $65.50 per barrel. U.S. crude dropped 2.5% to $61.87. The European Union energy commissioner said that the bloc would be happy to hear about President Donald Trump's plans to stop buying Russian crude.

Gold spot was up 1.2% to $3,589.01 an ounce after hitting a record of $3,597.66. The metal is on course for its biggest weekly gain in almost four months.

(source: Reuters)