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US stocks reach record highs as weak employment data fuels rate-cut bets

U.S. stock prices briefly reached record highs before trading lower on Friday. Data showing that U.S. employment growth slowed in August led investors double down on their bets the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates this month by up to 50 basis points.

Treasury yields fell on speculation that the Fed would lower rates more aggressively, and the U.S. Dollar dropped, but gold reached a record high, bringing it closer to $3600 per ounce.

Equity markets are seen as a positive when interest rates drop, because it could result in lower borrowing costs for business. Gold, which doesn't pay interest, tends to shine as well when rates are low, and there is a lot of uncertainty.

Art Hogan, strategist at B Riley Wealth Management, Boston, stated that "this number today puts back on the table a rate cut of 50 basis points at the next policy meeting." "More importantly, I believe 75-basis point before the end the year is pretty much a lock."

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls grew by just 22,000 jobs in August, after increasing by a revised upwards 79,000 positions in July. This was below the forecasted gain of 75,000.

S&P 500 Index reached a record of 6,532.65 in the early trading before reversing to be down by 0.55%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new record in the early minutes of trading before slipping 0.6%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq composite index lost 0.3%.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 10 basis points, to 4.076%, in line with the expectation of lower rates.

By 1710 GMT the MSCI World Equity Index had remained flat for the day, while Europe's STOXX 600 Index was down 0.2%. The FTSE 100 remained unchanged, while France's CAC 40 fell 0.3%.

The dollar index fell 0.6% to 97.674 while the euro rose 0.6% to $1.17625.

The warning bell that was ringing in the labor markets a month ago has just gotten louder, said Olu sonola, director of U.S. Economic Research at Fitch Ratings.

"An employment report that is weaker than expected all but confirms a rate cut of 25 basis points later this month."

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced speculation about rate cuts with an unexpectedly dovish address at the Fed symposium held in Jackson Hole last month.

The market sentiment has improved in recent days, after stocks in Europe fell and investors were concerned about the financial state of different countries, especially Britain and France.

The yields on 30-year bonds in France and the UK were lower on Friday. France's yield was 4.3873% compared to a high of 4.523% reached on Wednesday.

The benchmark German 10-year yield is 2.7051%. German industrial orders fell unexpectedly in July, according to data released on Friday.

The U.S. has signed an agreement to lower auto tariffs for Japan after months of negotiation. The dollar fell 0.9% against yen and the pair was trading at 147.05.

The oil prices are in their third consecutive day of declines. Brent crude futures dropped 2.3% to $65.44 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.6% to $60.83.

The European Union energy commissioner said that the bloc would welcome U.S. president Donald Trump's plans to stop buying Russian crude oil.

Gold spot was up 1.3% to $3,592.13 an ounce after hitting a record of $3,597.66. The metal is on course for its biggest weekly gain in almost four months.

(source: Reuters)