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Stocks and the euro slump as ECB remains steady, US inflation increases

The euro and the dollar were largely unmoved by the European Central Bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and the U.S. inflation figures that showed a slight increase.

The ECB held its rate at 2% as expected. However, with the ECB reducing its inflation forecasts during its press conference and Christine Lagarde at the helm of it, traders were looking for any indication of when another rate reduction might be coming.

The euro moved a fraction lower to $1.1672, after soaring nearly 13% against the dollar in this year. Bond vigilantes have not yet been able to push France's politically-strained borrowing costs above Italy.

The headline rate for August U.S. Consumer Price Inflation was 2.9%, the highest since January. However, the core measure remained at 3.1%.

Stock markets mostly shrugged off the news as it was in line with expectations.

Wall Street futures continued to price in more record highs on the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow after the 36% jump in Oracle shares Wednesday was the latest driver. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.4% ahead Lagarde.

Benoit Begoc, ABN AMRO's strategist, said that while the ECB was widely expected to maintain rates in the near future, it is important for Lagarde to keep the door open.

"I'm wondering why you don't cut rates more." Begoc stated. Begoc said.

Oracle's U.S. surge helped Asia overnight, where Japan's, Taiwan's and South Korea’s main stock exchanges also achieved record highs.

Germany's 10-year Bond yield fell to 2.63% as Lagarde began to speak. It had reached 2.80%, its highest level since March last week.

Oil prices fell 1.2% on the commodity market after three consecutive days of gains. Poland's downing a suspected Russian drone sparked new talk of sanctions on Wednesday, while Israel had attacked Hamas leaders in Qatar the previous day.

Gold, the safe-haven metal, also dipped from recent records and copper, the bellwether of metals took a break from its 20%+ rally since U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs on trade shook markets worldwide in April.

TRADERS BET ON TRIO OF FED CUTS

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next week, despite the higher U.S. data on consumer prices. Recent signs of weakness in employment markets have led many to expect this.

Wall Street futures point to further gains in fractions when the markets return at record levels soon. Oracle's 36% gain on Wednesday was the largest one-day increase for the 48-year old tech giant since 1992.

Investors now fully price in a quarter point move by the Fed during next week's meetings, with an 8 percent chance of a cut of 50 basis points.

Katy Stoves is an Investment Manager with Mattioli Woods. She said that despite the modest increase in inflation, the market expects a rate cut of 0.25% next week.

Turkey's Central Bank was also in the spotlight after it cut interest rates by more than expected 250 basis points amid growing concerns over a crackdown on the political opposition of the country and recent higher-than anticipated inflation.

The foreign exchange market was relatively quiet, with little movement in the U.S. Dollar and the six-currency dollar index barely above its seven-week low.

The 10-year Treasury yields remained at 4.03% after falling 4 basis points Wednesday following the PPI data. A solid 10-year note sale also helped to ease investor concerns about long-term U.S. government debt.

The Treasury's sale of $22 billion in 30-year bonds, which will take place on Thursday, is a more accurate gauge. The 30-year bond yield remained at 4.68% after falling more than 30 basis point since briefly topping 5% last week.

(source: Reuters)