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China's surplus crude is a major factor in the June surge of refiners' options, says Russell
In June, China increased the rate at which it builds crude oil stocks as its strongest imports for almost two years overshadowed a rise of refinery processing. China's crude surplus reached 1.42 million barrels a day (bpd), up from 1.40 in May, and was the fourth consecutive month that the level of 1 million bpd was exceeded. China's crude surplus for the first half 2025 was 1.06 million barrels per day, after strong oil imports in the second quarter overcame the soft start of the year. China's refiners have options in the coming months. They can trim imports, if they feel that oil prices are too high as a result last month of the Israel-Iran war. China does not reveal the volume of crude oil flowing in or out of its strategic and commercial stockspiles. However, an estimate can still be made if you subtract the amount of crude oil that is available through imports and domestic production from the total crude. According to calculations based upon official data released Tuesday, refiners processed 15,15 million bpd during June. This is an 8.8% increase from May, and the highest since September 2023. In June, crude oil imports from the world's biggest crude oil importer reached 12,14 million barrels per day, which is the highest rate since August 2023 and an increase of 7.1% compared to May. In June, domestic oil production increased to 4.43 million barrels per day (bpd) from 4.35 in May. After subtracting the 15.15 million barrels per day of refinery output, 16.57 million bpd crude is available for refiners. This leaves a surplus 1.42 million barrels per day. Not all this excess crude has likely been stored, as some is processed in plants that are not included in the official data. Even if you ignore the gaps in official data, there is no doubt that since March China has imported crude oil at a rate far greater than what it requires to meet its own domestic fuel needs. Price Moves China is known to import more crude oil than necessary when the price of crude oil is low. However, it pulls back when prices increase. Imports surged in the second quarter, despite falling crude oil prices at the time the cargoes were arranged. Brent crude oil futures fell from $75.47 per barrel on April 2, to a low of $58.50 per barrel, a four-year high on May 5. This is the period when cargoes arriving in the second quarter could have been secured. In contrast, China's low crude imports during the first quarter occurred after prices rose in the window where those cargoes were purchased. Brent rose from $70.85 per barrel in December to $82.63 on January 15. This meant that China's refiners faced rising import costs on cargoes arriving during the first quarter. Brent prices have fluctuated in recent weeks due to the conflict that erupted between Israel and Iran, later joined by United States. Brent crude oil reached a six month high of $81.40 per barrel on June 23, but has since moderated, ending at $68.71 a barrel on Tuesday. Concerns are growing over the economic impact on the world of higher import tariffs announced by U.S. president Donald Trump. China's refiners may reduce imports in August and September due to this volatility, but it depends on whether or not the spike in June is a temporary blip in an otherwise declining price trend. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
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EDF considers selling stakes in renewable energy units in North America and Brazil
A spokesperson for EDF said that the company is considering options to raise capital in order to expand its renewable energy businesses in North America and Brazil. This could include selling stakes of up to 50%. Bloomberg News reported that people with knowledge of the situation said the state-owned utility is considering a stake sale for 2 billion euros. Mathieu BARTIER, a spokesman for EDF Power Solution, said: "We are examining the possibility of opening the capital of certain of our subsidiaries to partner." EDF's CEO Bernard Fontana has stated that he is evaluating possible asset sales to raise money for the construction of six nuclear reactors. Fontana has previously said that he wants to Prioritise Domestic nuclear projects are being undertaken as the country looks to stabilize its electricity production over time, which is largely derived from its aging fleet of 57 reactors.
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How to build schools for extreme heat without air conditioning
Heat can threaten children's education Air conditioning fuels global warming Passive cooling is the new trend among architects Emma Batha Kere, who had studied abroad for many years, returned to his village after completing his studies to build an airy and light school that would allow children to learn comfortably in temperatures as high as 45 degrees Celsius. The architect from Berlin did not use the air conditioner. He incorporated cooling features in Gando Primary School, which he has applied to other projects throughout Africa. Kere is one of many architects who are pioneering sustainable designs for schools in a world that's warming. From Brazil to Vietnam, studies show that heat has a significant impact on learning. The World Bank warned in a report published last year that climate change is a threat to educational attainment and creating an "economic bomb". Experts recommend that classrooms not exceed 26 C. Kere's decision to build the Gando school out of clay was initially shocking. However, the material acts as a natural thermometer, absorbing the heat during the day, and releasing it in the evening. Kere says that while concrete and plate-glass look modern, they can make a building hot. This means air conditioners are needed. It's a vicious cycle. Air conditioners that use a lot of energy and expel warm air outside contribute to global warming. This in turn fuels the demand for air conditioning. Instead, Kere uses passive cooling techniques. The classrooms of Gando have openings on both ends. This allows for cross-ventilation. The overhanging roof is elevated above the perforated lower roofing, which improves air circulation. Kere, a Kenyan architect, was inspired to design a campus for a university by the termite mounds that regulate temperatures with natural ventilation. The low openings of the buildings allow fresh air to enter while the terracotta towers allow hot air to escape. SOCIAL CHANGE In the Thar Desert in north-west India, temperatures this year reached 48 C. The vegetation is sparse and sandstorms occur frequently. Diana Kellogg, an architect from New York, designed the Rajkumari Ratnavati Girls School. It is a large oval sandstone building rising out of the Rajasthan desert. The orientation and shape of the building allows the prevailing wind to blow around the school. Lime plaster applied on the walls inside has a cooling effect. Venturi effect is a phenomenon that accelerates airflow through lattice screens. They are inspired by the traditional Indian jali screen. The school uses solar power to run and collects rainwater. Kellogg says that temperatures inside can be up to 10 C lower than the outside temperature, which contributes to higher attendance. She believes, like Kere that good architecture can inspire social change. Rajasthan has India's lowest female literacy rates, but Kellogg says the massive scale of the school sends a powerful message about girls. She said, "It's improved their status in the community." The girls are proud to attend and call the College 'The College.' "When I visit the boys, they say, Build one for us.'" Greening Schools Even countries with temperate climates are looking for ways to cool down schools, as the climate change will bring more heatwaves. Britain said that new school buildings must be future-proofed to withstand a temperature increase of 4 C. The Victorian-era schools, with their large windows and high ceilings, are better equipped to handle heatwaves than the newer schools that have been designed to keep heat inside. But education does not just happen indoors. Many cities are making their playgrounds greener to help children develop. Planting trees can reduce temperatures by up to 6 C in urban areas. This is due to the shade and water vapour released. Paris aims at converting all asphalted schoolsyards into green oasis by 2050. Cool paint is another solution. Scientists are working on high-tech paints that may outperform air conditioners. BUILDING WITH CLAY Engineers are creating sophisticated products and systems to regulate temperature, from geothermal cooling to smart glass. Sustainable architecture, according to German architect Anna Heringer, means using local materials. Heringer is known for his use of mud, "a low-tech but high-tech material". Heringer added that clay balanced humidity, which can cause physical discomfort during extreme heat or cold. "Architects are often too technical but the solution is right in front of them." In Tanzania, she was told that villagers built concrete houses for status but slept in mud huts at night. Heringer explained that, contrary to popular belief, clay walls don't dissolve in rain. Heringer said that there are easy techniques to stop erosion and that a natural crystallization will strengthen the walls with time. Heringer added that the schools she built in the past 20 years have needed little maintenance. There is no air conditioning in some classrooms, but solar-powered fans are used in others. She said that not only is it a waste of energy, but switching constantly between heat and cool can be harmful to children's health. Kere, whose international commissions includes Benin's parliament building and the Las Vegas Museum of Art, said that his studio receives many inquiries about passive cooling and building with clay.
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India's gold imports in June fell to a two-year low due to record prices
India's gold exports fell by 40% in June compared to the same month last year, to their lowest level for more than two years. The price surge to record levels sapped demand. A government official who refused to be identified because he wasn't authorised to speak to the media said that imports to India fell to 21 tonnes, the lowest level since April 2023. The official stated that the value of gold imports dropped to $1.84 Billion in June, from $2.48 Billion a year earlier. India has imported an average of 52.4 tons per month in the last decade. The data from the Trade Ministry showed that India's gold imports in the first six months of 2025 fell by 30% compared to a year earlier, to 204.1 tonnes. This is the lowest level since the first six months of 2020 when COVID-19 led to a lockdown. Ashok Jain of Mumbai's gold wholesaler Chenaji Narsinghji said that the rapid rise in prices is discouraging jewellery buyers from purchasing. In June, domestic prices reached a record high of 101.078 rupees for 10 grams. The price of gold has risen by 27% this year, after rising by 21% last year. Jain stated that gold imports will remain low even in July as the demand remains tepid due to higher prices. The official from the government said that silver imports nearly doubled in June compared to the same month a year earlier, but they were still significantly less than the 544 tonnes imported in May. Silver has outperformed gold this year, and is now the preferred investment for Indians who have traditionally been obsessed with gold. (Reporting and editing by Ros Russell.)
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Zimbabwe plans to start construction of a new $270 million lithium plant in 2019.
Trevor Barnard, the CEO of Zimbabwe's Kuvimba Mining House, said that construction on a $270-million lithium concentration plant will begin in the third quarter this year at Sandawana Mine. The plant is expected to be completed in early 2027. The state-owned miner will partner with two Chinese metals titans to build a lithium concentrator capable of producing 600,000 tons per year. The two companies will construct and operate the plant in a minimum five-year period before returning it to Kuvimba. Barnard refused to identify the companies citing ongoing discussions. Barnard, a reporter, said: "We're still working on finalising a few agreements and making sure that our partner has all the industry conditions necessary for them to begin construction." He added, "We're looking to break ground in the third-quarter." Kuvimba has been hauling some lithium ore to Gwanda's processing plant, owned by Chinese nickel-and-steel giant Tsingshan Group. Barnard stated that the completion date of the Sandawana Lithium concentrator may coincide with the recovery of the price of battery metal. The lithium price has fallen nearly 90% in the last two years due to an oversupply largely driven by Chinese production. Miners have been forced to stop projects and reduce jobs. Analysts say that the production cuts in China and strong electric vehicle sales could push lithium demand over supply this year. Barnard stated that "our forecast is that the lithium price will recover in 2027 at the time we expect to have the concentrator plant in production". Zimbabwe, Africa's largest lithium producer, announced that it would ban exports of lithium concentrates by 2027 in order to encourage more local processing. The government anticipates that Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, and Sinomine will have finished facilities to further process in the country by then. Reporting by Chris Takudzwa Muronzi. (Editing by Nelson Banya, Mark Potter and Mark Potter.)
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Bulgaria secures Citi for the financing of nuclear expansion at Kozloduy
Bulgaria's energy ministry announced on Wednesday that it has partnered with U.S. Citibank to finance the construction nuclear power units for the Kozloduy NPP. This is the largest energy project the country has undertaken in many years. Zhecho Stankov, Energy Minister of Bulgaria, held final discussions in New York with the leadership of Citi to agree on financing for units 7 & 8 at Bulgaria's nuclear site which will use Westinghouse AP1000 technology. Stankov told Stephanie von Friedeburg of Citi Global Director Public Sector Banking that the agreement with Citi was an important step in ensuring the success of the government’s priority energy project and ensuring long-term energy stability. According to a statement from the Ministry, Citi is the exclusive coordinator and arranger for export credit and this deal represents their largest nuclear financing project throughout Central and Eastern Europe. Citi did not respond to our request for comment. Kozloduy, Bulgaria's sole nuclear power plant, dates back to 1970. Two 1,000 megawatt Soviet-made nuclear reactors are in operation. By 2007, four others had been closed. According to the expansion plan, unit 7 will be completed by 2033. Unit 8 will follow a little later. Hyundai Engineering & construction of South Korea received approval from the Bulgarian parliament in February for discussions to be advanced on the building of two nuclear reactors, with a combined power capacity 2,300 MW. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Antonis Pothitos)
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Wall Street to open cautiously ahead of US inflation data
The European stock market was mixed on Wednesday, and Wall Street futures fell as traders were wary of signs that U.S. Tariffs could cause inflation. Wall Street fell on Tuesday night and U.S. Treasury rates rose as U.S. Consumer Price Data for June showed higher prices for certain goods. This led investors to reduce their expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. After President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he would soon send out letters informing smaller countries about their U.S. Tariff rates, the threat of additional tariffs weighed heavily on market sentiment. Trump announced on Saturday that he would impose a 30 percent tariff on imports coming from Mexico and Europe starting August 1. At 1003 GMT the MSCI World Equity Index was down by 0.1% for the day. It had been knocked from a record high in the previous session following the inflation data. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.1%, while London's FTSE 100 rose 0.2%. The rate of inflation in Britain's consumer prices rose unexpectedly to its highest level in more than a year. After the data, the pound gained a little against the dollar. U.S. index futures indicated a lower opening for Wall Street. The traders will monitor the U.S. Producer Price Data, which is due on Wednesday to determine the extent of inflationary pressures. Vas Gkionakis is a senior economist and strategist with Aviva Investors. It is very likely, but it's best to wait to see when and how much. The Fed has kept interest rates at the same level as it awaited indications on the inflationary effect of tariffs that Chair Jerome Powell said he anticipated in the summer. Traders bet that the Fed is going to start reducing rates in September. Trump has attacked Powell for not reducing rates sooner. This has caused investor concerns about the central bank's ability to remain independent. The dollar index, which was at 98.547 on Wednesday and little changed from Tuesday, showed that the U.S. Dollar, after hitting multi-week highs on Tuesday, has cooled. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1615. The benchmark yield on the German Bund was unchanged at 2.707%, while the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury fell from its previous high of 4.4753%. Investors also pay attention to earnings reports. Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America are among the banks that will report earnings on Wednesday. Brent crude futures were around $68.5 per barrel as investor caution over the economic impact of U.S. Tariffs was outweighed by signs of a stronger Chinese crude demand. Gold rose 0.5% to $3,338.75 per ounce.
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The Russian oil price has remained below the budget target for 2025
Calculations showed that the average Russian oil price in roubles remained below the federal budget target for 2025. This added pressure to a budget already facing a growing deficit. The weakness of the rouble is due to its strength, which has increased by around 45% in the past year as a result of a easing of geopolitical tensions. The dollar value of international oil prices has dropped by about 10%. Estimations show that the average price for Russia's oil mix, as calculated for taxation, was 4,701 Rubels per barrel during the first two weeks in July. This is about the same level as June, but 11.1% lower than the revised budget target. Last week, the finance ministry announced that the budget deficit had reached 3,69 trillion roubles (47.31 billion dollars), or 1,7% of the gross domestic product in the first six months of the year. This is the same amount as was expected for the entire year. In April, Russia increased the estimate of the budget deficit for 2025 to 1.7% from 0.5%. This was after it reduced the energy revenue forecasts by 24%. The state's spending on defence increased by a quarter to 6.3% in 2025, the highest level since the Cold War. This was due to the fact that the country is still fighting in Ukraine. Oil markets have been impacted by the economic uncertainty and the increased production of OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its allies including Russia. The price of rouble oil is calculated using a Russian currency exchange rate of 78.39 to $1 during the first two weeks in July, and a barrel average of $59.97. The government has set a target price for oil in roubles of 5,281 per barrel, with a rate of 94.3% per $1. Meanwhile, the price in dollars is set at $56.
Dollar soars as Fed rate cuts bets are lowered, causing Asia shares to struggle
The Asian stock market was under pressure Wednesday, while the dollar rose to its strongest level against the yen in early April. This is after U.S. Inflation suggested that tariffs were pushing up prices, reducing expectations of Federal Reserve policy ease.
The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds reached its highest level in over a month. This lifted the dollar, especially against the yen.
Tech shares, however, remained resilient after a 4% rise in the artificial intelligence darling Nvidia over night.
Brent crude has remained at $69 per barrel.
The data released on Tuesday shows that U.S. consumer price rose by 0.3% in the month of June. This was in line with expectations, but it was also the biggest gain since January. Economists attribute the increase in prices of goods like coffee and home furnishings, to the Trump administration’s increasing import tariffs.
The Fed has kept interest rates at the same level as it awaited indications on the inflationary effect of tariffs that Chair Jerome Powell said he anticipated in the summer.
Taylor Nugent is a senior economist with National Australia Bank. In a podcast, he said: "We know that Fed Chair Powell and a few colleagues are waiting for the tariff effects to be seen. This data has bolstered that view."
Nugent stated that as a result of this, the markets have seen "a fairly substantial trimming of Fed expectation" regarding rate cuts. This has led to a decline in so-called risky assets, such as equity.
Traders are currently pricing in 44 basis points in U.S. interest rate reductions this year. The odds of a quarter point cut in September is 56.5%.
Investors will be closely monitoring the producer price data, due on Wednesday. They are looking for any signs that inflationary pressures may also be building in factories.
The KOSPI, the South Korean equity index, fell 1% and Australia's benchmark equity index lost 0.8%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng remained flat, after a loss of early gains.
The Nikkei, Japan's technology and exporter-heavy stock index, was little changed despite a series of small gains and losses. A weaker yen provided support.
Taiwan's tech heavy benchmark increased by 0.9%.
U.S. S&P futures eased by 0.2% after a 0.4% drop for the cash index overnight.
The STOXX50 futures for Europe fell 0.3%.
Earnings season is also a major focus for investors, beyond the Fed and President Donald Trump's tariffs.
JPMorgan Chase's and Citigroup's results were better than expected, but the market reaction was mixed. Wells Fargo lowered its net interest income forecast for 2025, despite exceeding expectations in the second quarter.
Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America are among the banks that will be reporting earnings on Wednesday.
The 10-year Treasury yields in the United States rose to a record high of 4.495% Wednesday, the highest level since June 11.
The dollar remained close to its multi-week high versus major peers. The dollar index is little changed at 98.525, after reaching a high of 98.699 for the first since June 23.
The U.S. dollar was unchanged at 148.835 Japanese yen and had earlier risen to 149.19 for the first since April 3 in the wake of Trump's "Liberation Day tariff announcement".
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1619 in an attempt to recover from the three-week low reached on Tuesday of $1.1593
Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency, added about 1%, to $117.890. It stabilised after its 6% drop earlier this week, from Monday's high of $123,153.22.
Gold increased by 0.5%, trading at $3,338 per ounce.
Brent crude futures dropped 18 cents, to $68.89 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down 31 cents at $66.83. Both contracts closed more than $1 lower the previous session.
(source: Reuters)