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Farm body: a bigger German wheat crop is expected by 2025
The German association of agricultural cooperatives released its latest harvest estimation on Thursday. It said that the 2025 wheat production in Germany will grow 15.7% from last season to 21,41 million metric tonnes. The association had previously forecast a German wheat crop in 2025 of 21,36 million tons in March, but this was revised upwards after recent rains in Germany. Rain had reduced the wheat crop in Germany for 2024, causing a significant increase on last year. The association stated that German grains benefitted from the widespread rain in April, after an exceptionally dry February and March with 50% less rainfall than normal. It said that rain was urgently required to prevent dryness and it came at the right time. However, more rain is needed. Germany is Europe's second largest wheat producer, behind France. It is also a major wheat exporter. The association reported that the generally favorable autumn weather conditions allowed German farmers to increase their wheat sowing by 9,9% each year. The German harvest of winter rapeseed (used for the production of vegetable oil and biodiesel) is forecast to increase 9.6% this coming year, reaching 3.97 millions tons. After the National Statistics Office made substantial changes to its estimates of sown areas, the association recalculated earlier figures for Germany's rapeseed production in 2024 and projected yields for 2025. According to the association, the winter barley crop, which is mainly used as animal feed, will increase by 0.9%, reaching 8.80 million tonnes. Spring barley, which is used to make beer and malt, will drop 5.9%, to 1,76 million tons. This is partly due to the mild winter, as it was not necessary to replace winter crops by spring sowing. It said that the grain maize crop (corn) will drop 4.8%, to 4.67 millions tons. Reporting by Michael Hogan, Editing by Kirsten Doovan and David Goode
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Brazil's Usiminas reports positive results, but warns that uncertainty lies ahead
Brazilian steelmaker Usiminas delivered results for the first quarter that were above the market's expectations on Thursday, but warned of challenges in the second half due to high interest rates and uncertainty surrounding trade. Businesses around the globe have been preparing for the impact of U.S. president Donald Trump's sweeping trade tariffs. These have sparked an international trade war, and have led to growing concerns and uncertainty about the global economic situation. The Brazilian company said that it foresaw a difficult and uncertain scenario in the second half 2025. This was stated in a filing of securities after the firm reported its quarterly results. The main reasons for this are the high volume of imports of steel under unfair competition conditions, the impact of the high interest rates on the domestic market, and the uncertainty in the international trade. Steelmakers in Latin America’s largest economy have complained for years about unfair competition, claiming that China floods their market with cheap materials. Usiminas called again on the government do more to control these imports. The Brazilian company reported a net income of 337 million reais (59.08 millions dollars) for the period January-March, an increase of 845% on a year-on-year. This was higher than the 225.02 that analysts had predicted in LSEG's poll. Iron ore sales increased 13% on an annual basis, to 2,11 million tons. Steel sales rose 5%. Usiminas predicted that both should remain stable in the second half of this year.
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What is the Indus waters treaty between India & Pakistan?
India announced that it would suspend the Indus water treaty with Pakistan immediately as part of its efforts to reduce diplomatic relations with Pakistan after militants killed 26 tourists in Kashmir. Before New Delhi's Wednesday decision, the treaty had endured two wars between bitter rivals. It also survived many diplomatic twists and turn. What is the INDUS WATERS TREATY? Both nuclear-armed neighbors disagree on the use of water flowing from rivers in India that drain into the Indus River basin in Pakistan. The Indus Waters treaty was signed in September 1960 by the neighbours after the World Bank mediated the agreement. The agreement divided the Indus River and its tributaries and set up water sharing between the two nations. India received water from the Sutlej River, Beas River, and Ravi river, while Pakistan got the majority of the western rivers, Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. The treaty does not allow either party to unilaterally terminate or suspend the pact. It has a clear dispute resolution system. What are the concerns about water? For years, the nuclear-armed neighbors have been arguing and disputing several projects along the Indus River and its tributaries. Pakistan's hydropower and irrigation requirements are heavily dependent on the water in this river system. India denies that India diverts water unfairly by building barrages and dams upstream. Pakistan claims this. Pakistan is worried that India's new dams could reduce the flow of the river which supplies 80% its irrigated agricultural production. It asked for an independent expert to be appointed and then for an arbitration court intervened in two recent hydropower project. India accuses Pakistan of prolonging the complaint process and claims that the construction of the Kishanganga hydroelectric project and Ratle is permitted under the treaty. India has sought to modify the treaty in order to avoid such delays. What could the suspension change? India's lack of storage capacity will not affect the flow of water into Pakistan immediately if the accord is suspended. The Indian move could cause uncertainty in Pakistan's agriculture system. Officials in India said that the suspension allows India to stop sharing vital information and data about floods, barrages/dams, or water releases, as well as other important issues. New Delhi is also no longer required to release minimum amounts during lean seasons. HOW HAS PAKISTAN RESPONDED TO THIS DECISION A statement released by Shehbaz Shaif's office on Thursday said that the treaty was a binding international accord brokered and contained no provisions for unilateral suspension. The statement stated that any attempt to divert or stop the flow of water belonging Pakistan, as per the Indus Treaty and usurpation of rights of lower riparians will be treated as an Act of War. The term "lower-riparian" is used to describe Pakistan's downstream position. Ghasharib Shaokat, head of product at Pakistan Agriculture Research (PAR), called the treaty "the backbone" of the agriculture sector in Pakistan. It puts our future agricultural on shaky grounds. Shaokat explained that if water flows are erratic the whole system is affected, especially crops dependent on irrigation, such as rice, wheat and sugarcane. Yields may drop. Costs may rise. Prices of food would probably rise. Small-scale farmers who operate on very thin margins would be the hardest hit. Khalid Hussain Baath - the chairman of Pakistan's national farmers union - characterized this move as one of aggression. Baath, who is in Lahore, said: "This is war." Climate change has already caused a water crisis. The water level has already dropped 20-25% compared to last year due to the low rainfall and lack of snow this year.
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Trelleborg adjusts prices and production in order to offset the 'limited' impact of tariffs
Trelleborg, a Swedish industrial group, said that it sees only a small direct impact of the U.S. tariffs. It expects to manage this through production adjustments and increased prices. Trelleborg will tackle tariff challenges by optimising and localising production, managing prices and ensuring flexibility in global operations. In a recent earnings report, the company said that indirect effects, such as disruptions in supply chains and higher costs of raw materials, could still have a negative impact on business. According to LSEG, the adjusted operating profit before amortization rose to 1,62 billion Swedish Crowns ($169 millions) in the third quarter, which is just below the analysts' expectations of 1,63 billion. Trelleborg reported that sales of seals for the construction industry were low, mainly due to the continued softness on the North American market. They also noted a subdued level of demand from automakers. The company expects the demand to remain the same as in the first quarter, but warns of an unusually high level of uncertainty due to geopolitical factors. Last week, Sandvik, a Swedish company that makes metal-cutting, mining and other equipment, said that it had not seen any impact of U.S. Tariffs on the demand for its product. $1 = 9.5835 Swedish Crowns (Reporting and editing by Milla Nissi in Gdansk)
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Valero Energy announces first-quarter loss due to lower margins and impairment charges
Valero Energy announced a loss for the first quarter compared to a profit a year ago on Thursday. This was due to lower refining profits and approximately $1 billion of impairment charges related its West Coast assets. According to data compiled and analyzed by LSEG, the refinery with the second largest capacity in America posted an adjusted profit per share of 89 cents, exceeding expectations of 42 cents. Lane Riggs, CEO of Lane Riggs Oil Company, said that the quarter saw heavy maintenance throughout the refinery system as well as a "challenging environment" for the renewable diesel segment. U.S. refineries undergo seasonal maintenance in the first quarter of each year to prepare for increased summer demand. However, this temporary maintenance limits revenue and utilization. Valero’s renewable diesel segment operated by the Diamond Green Diesel joint-venture posted an operating loss $141 million. This is a reverse of the $190 millions in operating income reported one year ago. Refining profits also fell, from $1.7 billion to $530 million. Valero was the first major refiner this earnings season to announce results. The industry is bracing for the fallout of the ongoing U.S. China trade tensions. This could reduce demand for refined products like gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel. U.S. refinery margins as measured by the 3-2-1 Crack Spread After hitting multi-year lows in 2018, the market is still under pressure. Valero reported that its quarterly refining profit margins dropped 29.5% from the previous year to $2.49 Billion. The net loss attributable by the company to its stockholders in the three-month period ended March 31 was $595m, or $1.90 a share. This compares with a profit of $1.2bn, or $3.75 / share last year. (Reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)
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Czechs sign 18 billion dollar nuclear power agreement after EDF appeals are rejected
The Czech Republic’s competition authority UOHS announced on Thursday that it had rejected French Group EDF’s appeals regarding the country’s multi-billion dollar bid for new nuclear units, in which it was defeated by South Korea’s KHNP. The rejection opens the door for KHNP, CEZ and the Czech government to sign contracts with a minimum value of 400 billion crowns (18.22 billion dollars) plus inflation. The decision of the Competition Authority confirms a previous verdict to which EDF appealed. Petr Mlsna, the chair of the Competition Authority, told a press conference that "there is nothing stopping (CEZ subsidiary EDU II) from concluding the contract with KHNP as the preferred bidder at this stage." He said that the decision invalidated a court order which had prevented any contract from being concluded. Zbynek Stajura, the Czech Finance Minister, said earlier this month that he expects contracts to be signed in this quarter. CEZ, a 70% owned state company, plans to build two nuclear power plants of 1,000 megawatts each at its Dukovany plant. This will be the largest energy investment in the country's history. CEZ and government selected KHNP to build new units in July 2024, but left the option for more units open later. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis, Jason Hovet, Jan Lopatka)
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INSG predicts a nickel surplus of 198,000 tons in 2025.
The International Nickel Study Group, (INSG), on Thursday predicted a surplus of nickel market of 198,000 tons by 2025. The group forecasts that global primary nickel consumption will be 3.537 millions tons in this year, and global production of primary nickel at 3.735million tons. Lisbon-based group stated that the market balance for 2023 would be a surplus 170,000 tons. This will rise to 179,000 tonnes in 2024. The primary use of nickel in the world was 3.193 millions tons and 3.347 tons respectively. The report stated that delays in issuing mining permits (RKABs), led to nickel ore shortages on the market. It also added that the impact of new royalties in Indonesia's mining sector had yet to be fully assessed. The report stated that the primary nickel output in China will also increase due to increased production of nickel cathode, nickel sulphate, and other nickel-containing products. Nickel prices, which are used in electric vehicles and stainless steel, have fallen by over 7% since 2024. They are up about 3% this year. (Reporting and editing by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru, Ashitha Shivaprasad)
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PG&E's lower expenses cause it to miss first-quarter earnings estimates
PG&E Corp. missed its first-quarter profit estimate on Thursday as it was hit by higher operating expenses and interest costs. Interest rates that are higher for longer increases the borrowing costs of utility companies. These companies need to borrow more money for their expenses, such as grid maintenance. PG&E's interest costs rose by 2.7% in the first quarter of this year, to $734 millions. In January, multiple wildfires scorched thousands of acres in Los Angeles. This is expected to be the costliest natural disaster in U.S. History. Electric utilities in the area have also been under increased scrutiny. PG&E will upgrade its wildfire safety systems and underground powerlines by nearly 700 miles and 500 miles between 2025-2026. PG&E reported that the average residential electric rate in March was lower than it had been a year before. It expects natural gas rates to stay flat until 2025. LSEG data shows that the company's total revenue for the quarter was $5.98 Billion, which is less than analysts' estimates of $6.14 Billion. Total operating expenses for the quarter ending March 31 were up 3.8% to $4.76 billion. The Oakland-based company confirmed its forecast of adjusted core earnings between $1.48 to $1.52 per common share. Analysts had expected $1.50 a share. Utility also reported that it added almost 3,000 new customers to its electric grid in the last quarter. PG&E's adjusted profit per share was 33 cents, compared to the analyst average of 34 cents. (Reporting from Bengaluru by Pooja menon; editing by Maju Sam)
Morning bid Europe-It seems investors don't really like tariffs
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
Investors are not happy with a trade war fueled by tariffs and a likely recession. Who knew? Wall St Futures and the Nikkei are both down about 3%. European stock futures have fallen around 1.7%. The Treasury yields have hit multi-month-lows while the dollar index has hit a six-month-low in chaotic conditions.
The reaction matched the drama surrounding the announcement as President Donald Trump announced various taxes on live television from a large blue and yellow board. The list included 34% more for China, 20% for the EU, 32% Taiwan, 24% Japan, and 46% Vietnam.
Included high levies on Asia were a clear shock for tech stocks, as it will increase costs across their supply chain. Apple shares fell 7% following the bell.
Contrary to the arguments of the White House most analysts see the end of the free trade agreement as a shock for U.S. economic growth, and the likelihood of recession will increase.
Fed funds futures rose in price to reflect 80 basis points in Fed easing in this year. This is true even though tariffs are sure to cause a sharp spike in U.S. inflation. Analysts have predicted price increases of up to $10,000 for new cars alone.
Fed officials often say that they are willing to overlook a single increase in price, but this pandemic illustrates what happens when companies realize they can raise prices and then blame someone else.
The White House has said it is open to horse-trading with other countries. The shifting sands will make it difficult for companies to plan investments over the long term.
Then there are the countermeasures that will be taken as countries prepare to oppose Trump's world order. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, was on the phone just moments ago to promise retaliation if negotiations failed.
Students of history know that the Smoot Hawley Tariffs, implemented by the United States in the early 1930s, are what put the "great " in "the Great Depression".
Are you trying to stay up-to-date with the latest news on tariffs? Our daily news digest provides a quick overview of the most important headlines that impact global trade. Tariff Watch is available here.
The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday.
- EU Producer Prices, Service PMIs
US trade data ISM services and weekly jobless claims. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, and Governor Cook talk
(source: Reuters)