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Trump's threats to strike Iranian infrastructure has put the markets on edge
Oil prices rose on Monday, while stocks were mixed after U.S. president Donald Trump warned of 'hell' for Iran if it did not reopen?the Strait of Hormuz within his self-imposed date. Trump's repeated threat to destroy civil infrastructure, including power plants and a bridge, if the crucial waterway isn't open by Tuesday has put traders on alert for retaliatory attacks from Iran against targets in the Gulf States. S&P 500 e-minis futures were volatile, fluctuating between gains and losses as countries in the region celebrated Easter Monday and Tomb Sweeping Day. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 0.4%. The Nikkei rose by 0.6% while South Korea's Kospi grew 1.4%. Investors gained confidence when Axios reported the U.S. and Iran are negotiating the terms of a possible 45-day truce that could lead to an end permanent to the war. The report cited four U.S. sources, Israelis and regional sources who were privy to the talks. Brent crude futures rose 1.2%, to $110.29 per barrel on the back of a potential disruption in supply. Sim Moh Siong is a currency strategist with OCBC Singapore. He said that the markets were "clearly nervous". He added, "We have seen deadlines being extended, and it is difficult to know to what extent the current deadline will be adhered to or pushed back." The weekend saw a resurgence of the threat to blow up Iranian bridges and power plants. The markets were interested in the agreement reached on Sunday between members of OPEC+ to increase their output quotas for May by 206,000 barrels a day. This is because several major oil producing countries behind the Strait of Hormuz suffered damage to oil production and transport infrastructure after the war began. Mark Matthews is the head of Asia research at Bank Julius Baer, Singapore. He said: "It's puzzling that Asian equity markets have been performing so well despite the imminent threat of escalation of the war." He said that there are two plausible explanations. The first is that despite the bad news the market believes that the war is going to end soon. The second explanation is that, even if war continues, the negative effects will be offset by fiscal stimulus. The U.S. Jobs Report released on Friday showed that employment growth in March was higher than expected, with 178,000 more nonfarm payrolls, which is the largest increase in over a year. As people left the workforce, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. The data will complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process at its next two-day meeting, ending on April 29, which is when it will decide the monetary policy. According to CME Group's Fedwatch, the swaps prices indicate that the market does not expect any moves from the U.S. Central Bank until September 2027. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures greenback strength in relation to a basket six currencies, fell by 0.1% at 100.13. The yield on a 10-year Treasury bond in the United States?was up by 1.2 basis points to 4.3565%. Tokyo's yield on the Japanese government bond has set a new record for the 21st Century due to rising inflation fears. The yield on these notes increased by 4.5 basis points to 2.425%. This is the highest level since February 1999. The U.S. Dollar was unchanged at 159.615 Japanese yen. Gold fell 0.5% to $4653.82. Bitcoin was up 1.9% to $68,886.31, and ether rose 2.6% to 2,122.32. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter, Lincoln Feast, and Shri Navaratnam.
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Saudi Arabia raises Arab Light crude oil prices for Asia at record-high premium
Saudi Arabia set its official selling price for May Arab 'Light' crude oil to Asia a record $19.50 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai benchmark, a $17 increase from the previous months, according to a document on pricing reviewed by on Monday. The price of Middle 'East oil is now the most expensive in the world, as the U.S./Israel war against Iran has limited shipping through Strait of Hormuz. This chokepoint accounts for about a fifth the world's supply. The exact date of a ceasefire or the resumption of oil exports through the Strait from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is still unknown. Middle East high-sulphur oil benchmark Dubai rose last month to almost $170 a barrel in trading on the S&P Global Platts Market On Close process. OPEC+ 'agreed to increase its 'oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels a day in May. This modest increase will largely be on paper, as OPEC+ key members cannot raise production because of the war. Below are Saudi prices for?Asia-Pacific in $/bbl compared to the Oman/Dubai average: April May Change Arabian Super -0.60 +16.40+17.00 Arab Heavy +0.60 +16.40+17.00
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Seoul: North Korea's distancing from Iran will leave the door open for US-North Korea talks
North Korea appears to be separating itself from its long-time partner Iran and carefully managing their public messages to preserve the chance of a 'new relationship with the United States. South Korean lawmakers claimed on Monday that the spy agency had told them that the 'war with Iran' was over. Seoul's National Intelligence Service said that North Korea has not sent any weapons or supplies to Iran since February 28. They also did not express public condolences for the death of the Supreme Leader,?Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who was killed by air strikes. This was according to Park Sun-won, a lawmaker who attended the NIS's?closed-door meeting. Park, citing NIS, said that Pyongyang did not send a message of congratulations when Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamenei was chosen as the new Supreme Leader. The?NIS reported that while China and Russia have frequently released?statements about the conflict, North Korea has only made two toned down?statements. This is consistent with North Korea’s recent tendency to avoid criticism of U.S. president Donald Trump. This lawmaker stated that the NIS viewed this as a preparation for securing new diplomatic space following a May summit between Chinese president Xi Jinping, and Trump. The NIS told lawmakers that North Korea also faced significant economic strains related to the Middle East Crisis, including disruptions in the procurement of industrial supply, rising prices and an escalating exchange rate. The?NIS reported that North Korea also tried to secure Russian oil supply. Kim said that the U.S. could "get along well" with North Korea if it recognized its status as a nuke state and retracted its hostile policy. Park stated that the NIS believed Kim had made the remarks "in his own voice" as a deliberate message, to keep relations with Trump good and position Pyongyang in preparation for a new chapter in diplomatic relations once the Middle East conflict subsides. (Reporting and editing by Jack Kim, Joyce Lee)
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Gold falls as Iran war, robust US jobs data dim Fed rate-cut hopes
?Gold prices fell on ?Monday, pressured by a stronger ?dollar ?as elevated oil prices on the back of a protracted Iran war and stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data dampened hopes for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Spot gold fell 0.5% per ounce to $4,652.89 by 0452 GMT. U.S. Gold futures for delivery in April held steady at $4,678.70. Many markets in Asia and Europe were closed on a holiday. The data released on Friday revealed that the U.S. payrolls increased by 178,000 in March, which is the highest since December 2024. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. The dollar index and 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield both rose, which pushed up the price of greenbacks. Brent oil prices rose as the U.S. - Israel war against Iran continued to disrupt global energy supply. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said: "The latest robust NFP print reinforced hawkish nerves of central banks, while persistent inflation fears fueled by oil continue to crowd gold's traditional safety-haven shine." U.S. president Donald Trump has threatened to "rain hell" on Tehran, if the country does not reach a deal by Tuesday and reopen?the Strait of Hormuz. Recent U.S. Intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is unlikely reopen this passage anytime soon. The rise in crude oil prices has stoked inflationary fears. Gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against rising inflation. However, high interest rates have a tendency to reduce demand for this non-yielding investment. The traders have priced out any chance of a Fed interest rate cut in this year. Before the Iran War began, two rate cuts were expected this year. COMEX gold traders increased their net long positions by 1,098 contracts, to 93872 contracts, in the week ending March 31. Spot silver dropped 0.9% to $72.34 an ounce. Spot platinum fell 0.6% to 1,977.29 while palladium rose 0.3% to $1.500.25.
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Trump's threats to strike Iranian infrastructure has put the markets on edge
Oil prices rose on Monday, while stocks were mixed after U.S. president Donald Trump warned of "hell" if Iran did not reopen?the Strait of Hormuz within his self-imposed date. However, a report of a possible ceasefire seemed to calm some nerves. Trump's repeated threat to destroy civil infrastructure, including power plants and a bridge, if this vital waterway was not opened by Tuesday has put traders on alert for retaliatory attacks from Iran against targets in Gulf states. S&P 500 futures, which are e-minis, fluctuated between gains or losses as many countries in the region celebrated Easter Monday holidays. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 0.3%. The Nikkei rose by 1.3% while South Korea's Kospi gained 0.9%. Axios reported that four U.S. sources, Israelis and regional mediators with knowledge of these talks, were discussing terms for a possible 45-day truce that could result in a permanent ending to the?war. Brent crude futures rose 0.5%, to $109.55 per barrel, before reversing their gains. This was due to the possibility of a supply disruption. Sim Moh Siong is a currency strategist with OCBC, based in Singapore. He added, "We've already seen deadlines pushed back, so it's hard to know to what extent this one will stick or be pushed too." The weekend saw a escalation of the threat to blow up Iranian bridges and power plants. The markets were interested in the agreement reached on Sunday between members of the OPEC+ to increase their output quotas for May by 206,000 barrels a day. This is because several major oil producing countries behind the Strait of Hormuz suffered damage to oil production and transport infrastructure. The U.S. Jobs Report released on Friday showed that employment growth in March was higher than expected, with 178,000 more nonfarm payrolls, which is the largest increase in over a year. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, from 4.4%. This was due to people leaving the workforce. The data is a challenge for the Federal Reserve. They will decide monetary policy in a two-day session ending on April 29, 2019. According to CME Group's Fedwatch, the swaps prices indicate that the market does not expect any moves from the U.S. Central Bank until September 2027. The U.S. dollar index, which measures greenback strength in relation to a basket six currencies, fell by 0.1%, closing at 100.15. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States was up by 0.8 basis points at 4.352%. Tokyo's yield on the "Japanese Government Bond" set a new record for the 21st century due to rising inflation fears. The yield on notes rose 3.0 basis points to 2.41%. This is the highest level since February 1999. The U.S. Dollar was unchanged at 159.555 Japanese yen against the yen. Gold fell 0.6% to $4646.27. Bitcoin was up by 2.2% to $69,120.37 while ether was up 3.0% at $2,130.78. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter, Lincoln Feast, and Shri Navaratnam.
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Trump says that a deal with Iran is possible if the Strait remains closed.
Donald Trump, while praising the U.S. military for their rescue of an airman in a high-risk mission deep inside Iran, threatened to "rain hell" on Tehran?if it didn't make a deal by Tuesday and reopen Strait of Hormuz. Special forces rescued an American airman from Iran in a mission that was high-risk. Israel and the U.S. have been pounding Iran with airstrikes and missiles for more than five weeks in order to eliminate what they claim is an imminent threat posed by Iran's ballistic missile arsenal, nuclear weapons development program and support for regional proxy militias. Tehran has closed down the waterway of Hormuz, which is a conduit that supplies around a fifth the oil and gas in the world, and also attacked U.S. bases and other targets throughout the Gulf. An official in Iranian state media reported that explosions rocked Tehran early Monday morning, and that a U.S./Israeli attack on a building south of the capital killed at least thirteen people. The report was not verified. Trump threatened to strike Iran's energy and transport infrastructure again in a post on his Truth Social platform that was laced with expletives. Critics say this would be a war crime. He said that Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day in Iran. There will be nothing else like it! You crazy bastards need to open the Fuckin' Strait or you'll end up in Hell – just watch! Praise to Allah. President DONALD J.TRUMP" In a mixed message that baffles supporters, enemies and financial markets, Trump said on Fox News that Iran is negotiating with a possible deal by Monday. Axios published a report on Sunday that?the U.S. and Iran are negotiating terms for a possible 45-day truce, which could lead to an end to the conflict permanently.' Citing four U.S. sources, Israelis and regional sources who were privy to the talks. Could not verify the report immediately. The White House and U.S. State Department have not responded to requests for comment. Reports said that the mediators were working on a deal in two phases. The first phase was a 45-day "ceasefire"; the second, an agreement to end 'the war. IRAN ATTACKS THE GULF AFTER CONDEMNING US AS 'RECKLESS" Tehran demands an end to hostilities, and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, its speaker of parliament, condemned Trump's threat. He said that Trump was misled by Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu. He posted on X Sunday: "Your reckless actions are dragging the United States in a living HELL, and our entire region will burn because you insist upon following Netanyahu's orders." Iran showed it was still fighting despite the U.S. and Israeli pounding by launching missile and drone strikes on petrochemical plants in Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates. On Sunday, the Revolutionary Guards said they also hit a vessel with Israeli connections at Dubai's Jebel Al port. The company reported that drones in Kuwait caused fires at petrochemical facilities operated by Kuwait Petroleum Corporation affiliates, and "severe damage to material" as well. The strikes highlighted Iran's capability to carry out cross-border attacks, disrupt infrastructure in multiple Gulf States and expose vulnerabilities within energy and maritime hubs. Media in Israel also showed teams of search and rescue combing debris on Sunday, after an Iranian missile struck a residential building. Israeli paramedics reported that nine people were receiving treatment, and Israeli media reported later that rescuers recovered two bodies?from rubble. COMMANDO OPERATION Trump announced that the?rescue mission of the airman was carried out in the early morning hours of Sunday. He described the operation as one of the "most daring" missions of this kind in U.S. History. Trump stated in a tweet that the airman was injured but will be fine. The pilot of the jet was rescued earlier. U.S. commandos sneaked deep into Iran undetected under cover of darkness. They scaled a 2,100-metre ridge at 7,000 feet and rescued the stranded American weapon specialist before dawn Sunday. A U.S. official said that two MC-130s, which had transported some of the 100-strong special operations forces to rugged terrain south-west of Tehran, suffered a mechanical breakdown and were unable to take off. The commanders took a risky decision by ordering more aircraft to fly into Iran in order to remove the group in waves. The rescue force was withdrawn?in phases, and U.S. soldiers destroyed the disabled MC-130s as well as four additional helicopters within Iran rather than leave sensitive equipment behind. Iran claimed that several U.S. planes were destroyed in the operation. The war that began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes across Iran on 28 February has resulted in the deaths of thousands, mostly in Iran and Lebanon. According to Lebanon's Health Ministry, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon killed 11 more people on Sunday.
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Gold falls as Iran war, robust US jobs data dim Fed rate-cut hopes
?Gold prices fell on ?Monday, pressured by a stronger ?dollar ?as elevated oil prices on the back of a protracted Iran war and stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data dampened hopes for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Spot gold fell 0.9% per ounce to $4631.69 by 0306 GMT. U.S. Gold Futures for April Delivery?lost 0.5 percent to $4657.50. Many markets in Asia, Europe and North America were closed on holiday. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said that "the latest robust NFP has reinforced hawkish Central Bank nerves while persistent oil-driven inflation concerns continue to crowd out Gold's traditional safe haven sparkle." Data released on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 178,000 positions in March, the highest since December 2024. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%. Dollar index and yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased, putting pressure on greenback bullion prices. Brent oil prices rose as the U.S./Israeli war against Iran disrupted global energy supplies. U.S. Intelligence assessments indicate that Iran will not be able to reopen this passage anytime soon. Concerns about inflation have been sparked by the surge in crude oil prices. While gold has traditionally been seen as a hedge to inflation, high interest rates have tended to dampen the demand for this non-yielding investment. The traders have "almost priced in" any chance of a Fed rate cut this year. Two rate cuts were expected this year before the Iran War. COMEX gold speculators increased their net long positions by 1,098 contracts, to 93872 for the week ended March 31. Spot platinum fell 0.9% to 1,970.38 dollars per ounce while palladium remained at $1,503.50.
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Asia markets prepare for Trump's attack on Iranian infrastructure
Oil prices rose and bonds fell at the beginning of Asian trading on Monday, as U.S. president Donald 'Trump' vowed to "hell" should Tehran not meet his deadline?to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's repeated threat to destroy civil infrastructure, including power plants and a bridge, if the crucial waterway isn't open by Tuesday has put traders on alert for retaliatory attacks from Iran against targets in the Gulf States. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% as liquidity was thin, and many countries in the region were on holiday. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 0.5%. The Nikkei rose by 1.2% while South Korea's Kospi gained 2%. Brent crude futures rose 1.4% to $110.58 a bar after the OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday that they would increase their oil production quotas for?May by 206,000 barrels a day. The increase is only on paper, however, for some of the major oil producing countries that are behind the Strait of Hormuz and have suffered damage to their production facilities and transportation infrastructure since the war began. Ed Yardeni is the president of Yardeni Research and chief investment strategist. He said that this week's news will be dominated by the Middle East. In a report, he said that Trump warned Iran to open the Strait immediately or Monday would be Obliteration day, the day the U.S. would bomb Iran's power plants. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% on Friday after the U.S. Jobs Report?showed that employment growth in March rebounded more quickly than expected, with 178,000 increases in nonfarm payrolls, which represented the largest increase in over a year. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, from 4.4%. The data is a problem for the Federal Reserve. They will be deciding on the monetary policy at their next two-day meeting, ending on the 29th of April. According to CME Group's Fedwatch, swaps prices indicate that the market does not expect any movement from the U.S. Central Bank until September 2027. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures greenback strength against a basket six currencies, remained at 100.23. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States was up by 4.7 basis points to 4.3584%. The?yield of the Japanese government bonds set a new record in Japan for the 21st Century due to concerns about rising inflation. The yield on notes rose by 2.0 basis points to 2.4%. This is the highest level since February 1999. The U.S. Dollar was unchanged at 159.635 Japanese yen. Gold fell 0.8% to $4638.54. Bitcoin was up 1.9% to $68,915.85 while ether was up 2.4% at $2,117.61. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter.
Dollar gains as gold falls due to raging Iran conflict and strong US job data
As markets awaited the U.S. President's remarks, gold prices fell on Monday. A stronger U.S. Dollar, boosted by a "strong" U.S. employment report, dampened bets for rate cuts. Donald Trump is facing an escalating conflict between Iran and the United States.
Gold spot fell 0.4% at $4,658.90 an ounce as of 0706 GMT. U.S. gold for April delivery rose by 0.1% to $4684.30.
Kelvin Wong is a senior analyst at OANDA. He said that markets are looking for a second so-called headline threat to be revealed later.
Trump also threatened to "rain hell" on Tehran, if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday. However, recent U.S. Intelligence assessments indicate that Iran will be unlikely to reopen this 'crucial waterway for oil shipping any time soon.
Investors also considered an Axios article that stated that the U.S. and Iran, along with a group mediators, are discussing the possibility of a 45-day truce that could pave a way for the permanent end of the war.
Brent oil prices rose as the war disrupted global energy supplies and fuelled inflation fears.
Gold is often viewed as a hedge to inflation. However, high interest rates can dampen the demand for this non-yielding investment.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury and the dollar index both rose, boosted by Friday's data showing that U.S. payrolls for non-farm workers in March increased to the highest level since December 2024. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%.
Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said that "the latest robust NFP has reinforced hawkish Central Bank nerves while persistent oil-driven fears of inflation continue to crowd out Gold's traditional "safe-haven" sparkle."
The odds of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate reduction this year are almost non-existent, as compared to the two cuts that were expected before the Iran War began.
Palladium rose 0.7%, while spot silver dropped 0.9%. (Reporting from Bengaluru by Pablo Sinha; Additional reporting by Swati verma; Editing and production by Sumana Nandy, Mrigank Dhaniwala).
(source: Reuters)