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Asia replaces Russian crude oil quickly: Russell

Asia's crude markets are quickly adjusting to the new sanctions imposed against Russia, grabbing cargoes as they come and looking for alternatives to deliver in the coming months.

According to LSEG Oil Research, the top oil-importing continent Asia is expected to receive approximately 3.23 million barrels of Russian crude per day in February.

India and China both bought less, but this is a decrease of 7.4% compared to January's 3,49 million bpd.

In Asia, there are only two major buyers of Russian crude oil by sea, namely India and China. Myanmar does also take a small amount.

LSEG expects India's imports to Russian oil to reach a record high in three months, at least 1,71 million bpd. This figure may increase by the end February as more cargoes will be assessed.

After Western sanctions deprived Europe of its customers, the South Asian nation has become the largest buyer of Russian crude.

India was allowed to purchase Russian oil at discounted prices as the United States, and other Western countries, tried to keep Russian crude on the global market. However sanctions were imposed after the February 2022 invasion by Ukraine to cut off the revenue flowing to Moscow.

Last month, former president Joe Biden imposed restrictions on Russia's shadow tanker fleet in order to prevent the vessels from delivering crude oil.

The Indian refiners were scrambling to purchase as much Russian crude before the new measures took effect, resulting in an increase in arrivals in February before a possible decline in March.

Chinese refiners have cut back more quickly on Russian crude. Imports of seaborne crude in February are expected to be around 500,000 barrels per day, down from an average of 1.05 million barrels per day over the previous three months.

According to LSEG's estimates, China's crude imports are expected to total 10.35 million bpd for February, which is roughly the same as January's 10,10 million bpd but lower than 11.16 million bpd from February 2024.

China has replaced Russian crude oil with cargoes of other suppliers. So far, it appears to have mostly turned to Angola or Brazil.

Switching suppliers is a good way to save money.

The imports of Angolan crude oil in Asia are expected to jump to 1.13m bpd by February, up from 670,000 bpd last month. Brazil's exports are also set to increase to 1.05m bpd.

China's decision, as part of its response to the new president Donald Trump's 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, to levy 10% on crude oil imports from the United States has made the situation even more complicated.

It will take several more months before the tariffs on U.S. crude oil are applied to actual imports. This is because there are many delays between when cargoes arrive and when they're delivered.

Kpler, a commodity analyst firm, estimates that China's imports from the U.S. of crude oil will increase significantly in March and April. Arrivals for March are currently estimated at 339,000 barrels per day and those for April to be 461,000.

These cargoes have already been placed on the water, or arranged.

China's imports of crude oil from the United States are likely to fall in May, but India could pick up the slack.

These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)