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Gold reaches a nine-week high as buying momentum increases amid inflation data
Gold prices rose on Monday to their highest level in nine weeks as investors were pushed by a bullish'momentum' and the fear of missing out. They also awaited important U.S. inflation figures to gauge Federal Reserve policy. By 2:45 pm EDT (1845 GMT), spot gold had risen 0.8%, to $4376.56 an ounce. The gold price reached its highest level since the 5th of June earlier in that session. Prices rose by 2.4% on Friday as labor department data showed a drop in nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. U.S. Gold Futures rose?0.5%, to $4,419.70. Bob Haberkorn is a senior market strategist at StoneX. It's a cautious trade, with China purchasing, the July CPI/PPI report due this week and a fear of missing out for now on a return to 4,500. Official data released last week showed that China's central bank increased its gold purchases in July. This is the largest increase since October 2023. Investors are awaiting the U.S. producer and consumer prices data, due Wednesday. The economists surveyed by predict that the CPI for July will have increased 3.4% compared to 3.5% in June. The CPI data will be crucial. "The CPI data is going to be important." According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in 52% of a rate increase in September and 81% in December. Bullion's non-yielding characteristics make it less appealing in environments with high interest rates. Iran announced that it was close to a final agreement with Oman, defining new shipping routes between the two countries through the Strait of Hormuz. However, they repeated their demand that other conditions must be met before reopening this strategic waterway. Silver spot rose by 3.1%, to $65.50 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.1%, to $1746.50. Palladium firmed up 0.2%, to $1380.17.
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Wall Street is under pressure as oil prices rise, and inflation and Hormuz are in the spotlight
Wall?Street indices retreated on Monday and oil prices rose over 4%. Markets were focused on the outlook of Federal Reserve?interest rate and a possible deal between?the U.S.A. and Iran for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has 'insisted' that the United States needs to meet several conditions before it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is fueling the uncertainty. As inflation data were due, gold drifted to a seven-week low. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 0.25%, to 53,901.23, S&P 500 lose 0.11, to 7,749.16, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.42% to 26,577.28. U.S. stock prices hit a new record on Friday, after traders cut their bets about Fed rate hikes due to a weaker than expected jobs report. Investors paused before a week of economic data, and Europe's stock index was barely changed. The MSCI global stock index was barely changed in a volatile session. Iran announced on Sunday that the final stages of a deal between Oman and Iran regarding transit through the Strait of Hormuz were nearing. However, it reiterated that this waterway will only be reopened once the United States meets other conditions. The conditions include compensation, the end of sanctions and military threats. Brent crude futures rose 4.61%, to $87.40 a barrel. U.S. crude also jumped 4.63%, to $81.80. Wednesday's U.S. consumer price index will have a major impact on Fed officials' rate-setting decisions. Investors will also watch euro zone employment figures and U.S. consumer price figures to get a sense of the outlook for interest rates. The economists surveyed by are expecting the consumer price index data to show a 3.4% increase year-over-year on Wednesday. This is compared to a 3.5% rise the previous month. Mohit Kumar is a senior European analyst at Jefferies. He said that the key to this year's Fed hikes will be this week's report on inflation. Kumar said that if oil prices remained contained and moved lower than the current levels, the Fed would not need to raise rates. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index outside Japan closed up 0.61% to 1,628.74. Emerging market stocks rose by 11.05 points or 0.67% to 1,668.91. EARNINGS HELP POWER STOCK In recent weeks, stock markets have soared to record levels around the globe. This was largely due to strong corporate earnings. Analysts from BofA stated that earnings per share were 30% higher than the previous year, after Alphabet's and Amazon's investment gains had been excluded. The 76% rate of EPS growth matched the highest level since 2021. JPMorgan strategists revised their estimate of 2026 earnings per share to $365. This represents a 35% annual increase. They also raised their S&P500 price target from 7,800 to 8,000. It is currently 7,758. This week's earnings are lower, but include semiconductor maker Applied Materials, network equipment maker Cisco, and cloud infrastructure technology provider CoreWeave. BONDS AND CURRENCIES The yield of the benchmark U.S. 10-year notes increased 4.25 basis points, to 4.701%. This week, the market is expecting $125 billion worth of new issuance. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies such as the yen or?the Euro) rose by 0.16%, to 99.80. Meanwhile, the euro fell by 0.14%, to $1.1542. The Japanese yen fell 0.83%, to 159.12 dollars per yen. However, investors were still wary about intervention. A summary of the opinions expressed at their July meeting by Bank of Japan policymakers showed that they were concerned about inflation, which could force them to increase interest rates faster than expected. This strengthened the case for an interest rate hike in September. Reporting by Chris Prentice, Harry Robertson, and Wayne Cole, in New York; editing by Sharon Singleton and Jan Harvey, Andrew Heavens, and Nick Zieminski.
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Barrick says Newmont deal clears path for North American IPO
Barrick Mining's second-quarter profits were below estimates on Monday, as higher costs in its?gold?operations countered rising bullion price. The company also struck a $1.95billion deal with Newmont for the settlement of disputes regarding Nevada Gold Mines. Newmont has consented to Barrick’s planned initial public offer of its North American assets of gold, the companies announced in a press release. This opens the way for Barrick to complete an IPO by the end 2026. Barrick is searching for a new chief executive officer to lead its non-North American operations. Mark Hill, the CEO of Barrick North America, has stated that he would prefer an internal candidate. Barrick shares were trading 8% lower on the Toronto Stock Exchange as of 1:00 pm. ET (1800 GMT). Gold miners are under pressure from higher fuel prices as the U.S./Israeli conflict against Iran disrupts oil supplies and keeps energy costs high. Barrick says fuel costs, lower grades, and higher royalties all contributed to the 11% increase in gold?all-in-sustaining costs. According to LSEG data, the Canadian gold miner posted an adjusted profit per share of 82 cents for the three-month period ended?June 30. This compares with the analysts' average estimate of 88 cents. The realized gold price for the second quarter rose by 34% compared to a year ago, reaching $4,417 an ounce. Gold output was unchanged at 796,000 pounds. Barrick said that the higher gold costs were due to lower grades being processed at the Carlin and Cortez mines in Nevada, and the North Mara mine in Tanzania. Fuel costs and royalties also increased because of the higher realized gold price. Gold cost of sales increased 20% to $1.993 per ounce in the second quarter, while the all-in-sustaining cost of gold, which is a key industry measurement of total costs of producing gold including sustaining capital expenditure, increased 11% to $1.666 per ounce. NEWMONT -DEAL CLEARS IPO PATH Barrick has 61.5% of the Nevada Gold Mines joint enterprise and Newmont has 38.5%. Barrick needs Newmont's consent to proceed with its North American spin-off because Newmont holds the right of first refusal in case Barrick attempts to sell its stake. Newmont and Barrick also disagreed over the Nevada Gold Mines operational issues. Barrick agreed to transfer its Fourmile Project to the Nevada Gold Mines Joint Venture, and Newmont agreed that it would transfer its Mike and Fiberline Projects and pay $1.95 billion cash in 30 days. Barrick stated that the?agreement would create a gold complex of nearly 100 million ounces in Nevada. Barrick's planned North American IPO includes its interests and operatorship in Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo and the Fourmile Project, as well as other North American exploration projects and assets, including those contributed by Newmont.
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Gold nears seven-week high as inflation data looms
Gold prices rose on Monday, hovering?near the?seven week high reached in the previous session. Bullish momentum and the fear of missing out pushed the price higher. Investors awaited important U.S. inflation statistics to gauge Federal Reserve policy. By 1:15 pm EDT (1715 GMT), spot gold had risen 0.4%, to $4.356.79 an ounce. On Friday, it reached its highest level since the end of June 2017 at $4.371.63/oz after data revealed an unexpected decline in U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls. U.S. Gold Futures increased?0.4% at $4,416.00. Bob Haberkorn is a senior market strategist at StoneX. It's cautious trade, with China purchasing, the July CPI/PPI report due this week and a kind of fear of missing out on a return to over 4,500 at the moment. Official data revealed last week that China's central banks?increased gold purchases in July, adding more bullion into its reserves than since October 2023. Investors are awaiting the U.S. producer and consumer prices data, due Wednesday. The economists polled expect that the CPI for July will have increased by 3.4% compared to 3.5% in June. The CPI data will be crucial. Markets are expecting a report which is not very positive on inflation. This will cause gold to trade sideways to higher in the short term. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 50% probability of a rate increase in September and a 81% likelihood in December. Bullion's non-yielding property makes it less appealing in an environment of high interest rates. Iran announced that it was close to a final agreement with Oman, defining new shipping routes between the two countries through?the Strait of Hormuz. However, they repeated their demand that the U.S. meet certain conditions before reopening this strategic waterway. Silver spot rose 2.3% per ounce to $65.03, platinum fell 0.1% to 1,743.05 and palladium increased 0.2% to 1380.68.
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UK government reports drought in almost three quarters of England
The British government announced on Monday that almost three quarters of England are now in a 'drought,' highlighting the worsening effects of a 'prolonged dry climate,' particularly for agriculture, public water supplies, and wildlife. A combination of low rainfall and high temperatures has caused a flash-drought to affect 71.3% of the country. This has increased since the end of July, when nearly half of the country was declared 'in drought. According to the latest updates, 45 million people live in a drought zone and 27 millions are restricted from using water. Britain is currently 'in the grips of its fifth heatwave this year. England and Wales have recorded their driest month in 190-years. Southeast England only received 1% of the average rainfall. Emma Hardy, Water Minister, said in a?statement: "We are stepping-up our?support and working to make building more irrigation?reservoirs on site easier for farmers." The government has said that the levels of rivers, reservoirs and groundwater continue to drop, while the hot, dry weather conditions are increasing the risks of wildfires. Last month, UK health authorities reported that 2,877 deaths in Britain this year were due to heat-related causes. The government also stated that the heat is affecting breeding birds, freshwater fish, and amphibians. (Reporting and editing by William James; Muvija M.)
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The power market in Brazil is being expanded by global traders and financial groups
Executives from global commodities traders and financial companies, such as Trafigura, StoneX, and Macquarie are expanding their presence in Brazil's energy trading market. They are betting on the rising volatility of prices and the long-term growth of this sector, even though a wave financial distress is hitting local players. As several Brazilian power traders are facing financial problems, international groups with a large amount of capital can now gain a larger share of one the largest electricity markets in the world. StoneX's local segment head, Marcelo Mello, has announced that the company has opened its first global trading desk for electricity in Brazil. The goal is to create synergies between agribusiness and power producers. StoneX is awaiting more clarity on the geopolitical risks, and the turmoil in the domestic trading industry before it launches trading operations. However, StoneX already began offering risk management services to energy companies. Macquarie, a bank based in Australia, has also increased its?push into the Brazilian power market since last year. This is according to sources who are familiar with the situation. The bank stated that it sees a number of opportunities for clients to manage price risk, secure financing, and structure complex transactions. Trafigura announced its entry into Brazil’s power market in July. The company said that the hydroelectric-heavy mix of the country's generation complements its energy portfolio in the United States, Europe, and offers significant trading possibilities. Global firms are flooding into the market as a result of a consolidation of the sector following a number of insolvencies among local traders and legal recovery proceedings. Participants in the industry and regulators are evaluating ways to improve market security. This includes collateral requirements and developing an exchange-traded electricity market. Danske Commodities of Equinor entered the Brazilian market in 2023. The company spent the next few years obtaining regulatory approvals, assessing risks and opportunities, and then stepping up its activities in this year. The changes will likely accelerate consolidation and concentrate trading activity on a smaller group of financial stronger counterparties. (Reporting and writing by Leticia Ficuchima, Editing and proofreading by Aurora Ellis).
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Two dead following Colombia earthquake; others trapped
Authorities said that at least?two deaths were caused by a powerful earthquake in western Colombia, on Monday. The quake brought down buildings and trapped people in rubble. In an interview with Blu Radio's Jorge Eduardo Rojas, the mayor of Manizales said that two people had been?killed?. Alejandro Eder said, however, that preliminary reports indicated at least 20 buildings collapsed in Cali and people were trapped. Cali has requested that disaster teams from Bogota, Medellin and other cities assist in the rescue efforts. Epicenter of the quake was in Choco province, near San Jose del Palmar. Choco is a sparsely-populated province along Colombia's Pacific Coast. Choco Governor Nubia Cordoba confirmed that there were significant damages and injuries in Quibdo. She also warned residents of the aftershocks. The Governor of the neighboring province?Risaralda, Juan?Diego Patino, said that Pereira, one of Colombia's major cities in coffee-growing regions, also suffered severe damage to buildings. The Colombian Civil Aviation Authority said that flights had been suspended in Pereira and Manizales as well as Quibdo. Armenia, Cartago, Buenaventura and Cartago while inspectors checked the airports for structural damage. The disaster agency of the country said that it had received reports on the quake from all 32 capitals in each department, which triggered evacuations. The Colombian geological service has revised the earthquake's magnitude to?7.4; it also stated that?it occurred at a depth 96 km (60 mi). The U.S. Tsunami Warning System said that there was "no tsunami danger". Witnesses in Venezuela's border state of Tachira, and central-western city Barquisimeto confirmed that the earthquake was felt. Venezuela was hit by two devastating earthquakes in June that killed over 6,000 people. Most of them were on the coast, near Caracas. (Reporting and writing by Nelson Bocanegra and Luis Jaime Acosta; editing by Paul Simao & David Holmes).
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Wall Street, European shares and oil prices are under pressure as Hormuz and inflation is in focus
European shares and major Wall Street indices fell on Monday as markets focused on the outlook of Federal Reserve interest rate?and a possible deal between the U.S.?and Iran for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. After Iran demanded that the United States meet several conditions before the Strait could be reopened, oil prices?jumped?. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 0.12% to 53.974.62 while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.17% at 26,645.08. S&P 500, however, defied the trend and rose 0.02% to 7,759.27. The U.S. stock market hit a new record on Friday, after traders cut their bets about Fed rate increases due to a less-than-expected job report. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.16% and Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 dropped by 0.14% on Monday. The MSCI global stock index clung on to gains with a gain of 0.05%. Iran announced on Sunday that it was nearing the 'final stages' of a deal to allow Oman transit through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the Iranian government reiterated that this waterway will only be reopened once the United States meets other conditions. These include compensation, the end of sanctions and military threats. Brent crude futures rose?3.06%, to $86.11 a barrel. U.S. crude increased 3.26%, to $80.73. The global benchmark prices are still well below the peak reached in late April, when oil prices topped $126 per barrel. This week, the key event is Wednesday's U.S. inflation reading for July. It will influence Fed officials thinking about rates. Investors will also watch euro zone employment figures and U.S. consumer price figures to get clues about the interest rate outlook. The economists surveyed by are expecting the consumer price index data to show a 3.4% increase year-on-year on Wednesday. This is compared to a 3.5% rise the previous month. Mohit Kumar is a senior European analyst at Jefferies. He said that the key to this year's Fed hikes will be this week's report on inflation. Kumar said that if oil prices were to remain stable and fall from their current levels, the Fed would not need to raise rates. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed up 0.61% at 1,628.74. Emerging Market Stocks rose by 0.66%, to 1,668.75. EARNINGS HELP POWER STOCK In recent weeks, stock markets have soared to record levels around the globe. This was largely due to strong corporate earnings. Analysts from BofA stated that after Alphabet's and Amazon's investment gains were excluded, earnings per share had increased by 30% over the previous year. The 76% rate of EPS beating was the highest since 2021. JPMorgan strategists revised their estimate of 2026 earnings per share to $365. This represents a 35% annual increase. They also raised their S&P500 price target from 7,800 to 8,000. It is currently 7,758. This week's earnings are lower, but include semiconductor maker Applied Materials and networking equipment maker Cisco, as well as cloud infrastructure technology provider CoreWeave. BONDS and CURRENCIES The yield on the benchmark?U.S. The yield on benchmark?U.S. 10-year notes increased 3.03 basis points, to 4.688%. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen and the euro) rose by 0.15%, to 99.79. Meanwhile, the euro fell by 0.11%, to $1.1545. Investors were wary about any possible intervention, but the Japanese yen fell 0.75% at 158.97?per dollar. A summary of the opinions expressed at their July meeting by Bank of Japan policymakers showed that they were concerned about rising inflation, which could lead to a quicker-than-expected rate of interest rate hikes. This strengthened the case for an increase in September. Reporting by Chris Prentice, Harry Robertson, and Wayne Cole, in New York; Editing by Sharon Singleton and Jan Harvey, and Andrew Heavens
VEGOILS - Palm up on a soft ringgit, but weaker rival oils and crudes cap gains
Malaysian palm futures closed higher on Wednesday after the previous session?declined?. The ringgit was softer, but weaker crude oil and competing edible oils limited gains.
The benchmark palm oil contract for September delivery at the 'Bursa Malaysia derivatives Exchange' rose by?11 Ringgit or 0.24% to 4,557 Ringgit ($1,113.64).
A Kuala Lumpur based trader stated that the market had been supported earlier by a recovery in rival soyoil and a slightly lower ringgit during the morning Asian session.
The palm ringgit's currency has weakened by 0.24% against dollars, making it cheaper for buyers of foreign currencies.
Prices of soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade fell by 0.66%. Dalian's palm oil contract lost 0.59%, while the most active soyoil contract fell by 0.32%.
As palm oil competes to gain a share in the global vegetable oil market, it tracks the price movement of its rival edible oils.
Crude Oil fell by more than 1%, as the U.S. and Iran continued to negotiate a final deal that would end their war. The market was waiting for the U.S. data on stock drawdowns.
Palm oil is less appealing as a biodiesel feedstock due to the weaker crude oil futures.
A trade ministry regulation revealed that Indonesia set its crude palm oil reference price at $1,090.90 per tonne for July.
As part of the country's push to achieve energy independence, B50 fuel, which is a mixture of 50% palm-based and 50% conventional diesel will be available on Wednesday. Analysts say that the low oil prices and more expensive palm oil are threatening its viability. ($1 = 4.0920 ringgit)
1 Please enter the?codes between brackets to view freight rates for?Peninsula Malaysia/Sumatra from China, India, Pakistan, and Rotterdam. Double-clicking on the bracketed?codes will show terminal users the cash and futures?prices for edible oil. To move to the next page, press F12. To go back, hit F11. 1
(source: Reuters)