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Wall Street is under pressure as oil prices rise, and inflation and Hormuz are in the spotlight

Wall?Street indices retreated on Monday and oil prices rose over 4%. Markets were focused on the outlook of Federal Reserve?interest rate and a possible deal between?the U.S.A. and Iran for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has 'insisted' that the United States needs to meet several conditions before it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is fueling the uncertainty. As inflation data were due, gold drifted to a seven-week low. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 0.25%, to 53,901.23, S&P 500 lose 0.11, to 7,749.16, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.42% to 26,577.28. U.S. stock prices hit a new record on Friday, after traders cut their bets about Fed rate hikes due to a weaker than expected jobs report. Investors paused before a week of economic data, and Europe's stock index was barely changed. The MSCI global stock index was barely changed in a volatile session.

Iran announced on Sunday that the final stages of a deal between Oman and Iran regarding transit through the Strait of Hormuz were nearing. However, it reiterated that this waterway will only be reopened once the United States meets other conditions. The conditions include compensation, the end of sanctions and military threats. Brent crude futures rose 4.61%, to $87.40 a barrel. U.S. crude also jumped 4.63%, to $81.80.

Wednesday's U.S. consumer price index will have a major impact on Fed officials' rate-setting decisions. Investors will also watch euro zone employment figures and U.S. consumer price figures to get a sense of the outlook for interest rates.

The economists surveyed by are expecting the consumer price index data to show a 3.4% increase year-over-year on Wednesday. This is compared to a 3.5% rise the previous month.

Mohit Kumar is a senior European analyst at Jefferies. He said that the key to this year's Fed hikes will be this week's report on inflation.

Kumar said that if oil prices remained contained and moved lower than the current levels, the Fed would not need to raise rates.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index outside Japan closed up 0.61% to 1,628.74. Emerging market stocks rose by 11.05 points or 0.67% to 1,668.91.

EARNINGS HELP POWER STOCK

In recent weeks, stock markets have soared to record levels around the globe. This was largely due to strong corporate earnings.

Analysts from BofA stated that earnings per share were 30% higher than the previous year, after Alphabet's and Amazon's investment gains had been excluded. The 76% rate of EPS growth matched the highest level since 2021.

JPMorgan strategists revised their estimate of 2026 earnings per share to $365. This represents a 35% annual increase. They also raised their S&P500 price target from 7,800 to 8,000. It is currently 7,758.

This week's earnings are lower, but include semiconductor maker Applied Materials, network equipment maker Cisco, and cloud infrastructure technology provider CoreWeave.

BONDS AND CURRENCIES The yield of the benchmark U.S. 10-year notes increased 4.25 basis points, to 4.701%. This week, the market is expecting $125 billion worth of new issuance. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies such as the yen or?the Euro) rose by 0.16%, to 99.80. Meanwhile, the euro fell by 0.14%, to $1.1542. The Japanese yen fell 0.83%, to 159.12 dollars per yen. However, investors were still wary about intervention. A summary of the opinions expressed at their July meeting by Bank of Japan policymakers showed that they were concerned about inflation, which could force them to increase interest rates faster than expected. This strengthened the case for an interest rate hike in September. Reporting by Chris Prentice, Harry Robertson, and Wayne Cole, in New York; editing by Sharon Singleton and Jan Harvey, Andrew Heavens, and Nick Zieminski.

(source: Reuters)