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Saudi Arabia is able to live with lower oil price, according to sources

Five sources familiar with the discussions said that Saudi Arabian officials were briefing industry experts and allies to explain the kingdom's unwillingness to support the oil market through further cuts in supply and its ability to handle a long period of low oil prices.

Saudi Arabia's possible policy shift could indicate a move to produce more and expand its market share. This would be a major change, after spending five years balancing the oil market by producing a large amount of oil as a member of the OPEC+.

These cuts helped to support prices and, as a result, the revenue from oil exports that many oil producers depend on.

The Saudi government’s communications office has not responded to a comment request on this matter.

Sources said that Riyadh was angry because Kazakhstan and Iraq produced above their OPEC+ target. These targets are set by the group to maintain a balance between supply and demand in oil markets.

OPEC+ source said that after pushing its members to meet these targets and compensate for the oversupply of recent months, a frustrated Riyadh has changed tact.

Saudi Arabia pushed OPEC+ to increase output more than planned in May. This decision helped push oil prices down below $60 a barrel, a four-year low.

Prices are down, which is bad for oil producers who rely on exports to finance their economies.

Saudi Arabia, for example, has a low cost of production but they still need a higher price of oil to fund government expenditures. Many large oil producing countries are forced to reduce their budgets when oil prices drop.

Saudi Arabia appears to be telling allies and experts they are prepared to do this.

Five sources claim that Saudi officials have in recent weeks told their allies and participants in the market they can cope with the price drop by increasing borrowing and reducing costs.

One source said, "The Saudis may have to scale back some of their major projects if they want lower prices." Due to the sensitive nature of the subject, all sources declined to provide their names.

According to the International Monetary Fund, Saudi Arabia requires oil prices to be above $90 in order to balance its budget. This is higher than the other major OPEC producers, such as the United Arab Emirates.

Analysts have stated that Saudi Arabia could be forced to cut back or delay some projects as a result of the drop in price.

Not a price war yet

OPEC+ could decide to increase output again in June. This includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, such as Russia.

Saudi Arabia contributes two fifths of the 5% global supply cut by OPEC+.

Two of the five Russian sources familiar with Russian thinking and conversations have confirmed that Riyadh is planning to increase output faster.

Two sources stated that Russia prefers the group to stick with slower production increases.

The office of Alexander Novak, Russian Deputy Premier Minister, did not respond to a comment request.

Saudi Arabia and Russia - the de facto leaders in OPEC+ - make up the largest contributions to OPEC+'s cuts.

The Russian budget is about $70 per barrel, and spending by the Kremlin has increased due to the Russian conflict in Ukraine.

One of the sources stated that Russia could see a further drop in revenues as the prices of its sanctioned, discounted oil could fall under $50 a barrel due to OPEC+'s increased output.

Reasons for Change

Theories about the apparent shift in Saudi strategy include punishing OPEC+ member countries that exceed their quotas, or a fight for market shares after ceding the ground to non OPEC+ producers like the United States and Guyana.

A higher output could also give President Donald Trump a boost, as he has asked OPEC for a production increase to keep U.S. gas prices low.

Trump will visit Saudi Arabia next month and may offer Riyadh a package of arms and a nuke agreement.

OPEC+ has decided to triple the planned increase in output to 411,000 bpd.

OPEC+ still holds back over 5 million bpd. The group aims at reducing these restrictions by the end 2026.

Giovanni Staunovo, UBS analyst, said: "We still would call this a managed' unwinding of cuts. This is not a battle for market share."

(source: Reuters)