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As the market assesses supply risks, oil prices are rising.
The oil prices increased slightly on Friday, as participants in the market weighed supply risks. However, the likelihood of an?U.S. The likelihood of a U.S. strike against Iran has decreased. Brent rose 5 cents or 0.1% to $63.81 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 8 cents or?0.1% to $59.27 per barrel at 0749 GMT. Brent and WTI both reached multi-month highs in this week, after protests erupted in Iran and U.S. president Donald Trump hinted at the possibility of strikes against the country. Brent prices are still on track for a fourth consecutive week of gains. BMI analysts wrote in a client note that "given the potential political turmoil?in Iran", oil prices will likely experience greater volatility, as markets digest potential supply disruptions. Trump stated late on Thursday that the crackdown by Iran on protesters is easing, reducing fears of military action which could disrupt oil supply. In a note to clients, IG analysts stated that while (Iranian Supply) Risks have eased a bit, they are still significant and keep the?market anxious in the short-term. They added that "any escalation with Iran would also raise concerns about a potential disruption of oil flows through Strait of Hormuz - a chokepoint at which around 20m barrels per day pass." Analysts remain pessimistic about the prospect of a longer supply in this year, despite expectations from OPEC for a more balanced market. "Sentiment drives markets, but headlines are always short-lived. Especially when fundamentals appear to be comfortable at the back of the line," Priyanka sahdeva, senior market analyst for Phillip Nova. Oil looks range-bound with Brent hovering around $57 to $67. OPEC announced on Wednesday that oil supply and demand will remain in balance in 2026. In 2027,?demand? will rise at a pace similar to the growth rate for?this?year. Market participants expect near-term price changes to be influenced by geopolitical factors and macroeconomics. The situation in Iran, and China's data dump, will likely drive the oil market in the short term, according to OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong. He added that WTI crude prices are expected to remain in a range of $55,75-$63.00 per barrel. Helen Clark, Trixie Yap and Tom Hogue edited this article.
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Gold falls as dollar rises on the back of positive US data, reducing rate-cut betting
Gold extended its losses ?on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data reduced expectations of near-term Federal Reserve ?rate ?cuts, while easing geopolitical tensions shrunk demand for safe-haven bullion. By 0733 GMT, spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,604,29 per ounce. The metal is expected to gain 2% in a week after reaching a record high of $4,642.72 last Wednesday. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery edged down 0.3% to $4,608.90. Kyle Rodda is an analyst with Capital.com. He said that the downward movement in gold began when the United States lowered the likelihood of any intervention to quell the unrest?in Iran. The dollar is poised to gain a third week after the U.S. Labor Department reported that weekly initial claims for unemployment fell 9,000, to 198,000 seasonally adjusted claims. This was below the 215,000 expectations?by an economist poll. The greenback price of metals is more expensive to overseas buyers. Low rates also benefit gold, which is a non-yielding investment, because they lower the opportunity costs of holding it. On Wednesday and Thursday people inside Iran said that protests had abated since Monday, while U.S. president Donald Trump has also taken a softer stance regarding military intervention. SPDR Gold Trust is the largest gold-backed ETF in the world. Its holdings rose 0.05% to 1,074,80 tons, their highest level in more than 3-1/2 years. Gold?demand in India was muted as prices reached record highs, reducing the appeal of?retail purchases. In China, bullion trades at a premium as demand remains steady before the Lunar New Year. According to a report released by?Vanda Research, on Thursday, silver has become 'the most crowded commodities trade in the market. Individual investors are buying up silver at a record pace. Spot silver fell 1.8%, to $90.66 an ounce. It was still on track for a weekly increase of more than 13%. After hitting a record low of more than a week earlier, spot platinum fell 2.1% to $2 358.95 an ounce. Palladium dropped 2.9% to $1 748.50 per ounce.
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ASIA GOLD - Record rally stops retail purchases in India, China demand stable
The gold demand in India was muted as prices hit record highs, reducing the appeal of retail purchases. In China, bullion trades at a premium as demand remains steady before the Lunar New Year. Indian dealers offer a discount This week, official domestic prices will be up to $12 an ounce, including 6% import and 3% sales taxes, compared to the previous week's up to $6. On Friday, domestic gold prices were trading at around 142.800 rupees per 10 grams, which is not far off the record high reached earlier this week of 143.590 rupees. Chirag Thakkar is the CEO of Amrapali Group Gujarat, a bullion importer. "Most people are buying gold exchange-traded funds, with only a small amount of interest in bars and coins. "Jewellery demand is dead," said a Mumbai bullion dealer from a private bank. Bullion prices in China's top consumer range from discounts as high as $12 per ounce up to premiums of over $3 an ounce compared to the global benchmark. This week. Last week, premiums were as high as $11. "China is heading into the Chinese New Year and despite record prices, the gold price remains modest (which is surprising)," said independent analyst Ross Norman. In Singapore Gold was sold for prices that ranged from a discount of $0.20 to a premium up to $2 per ounce. In Hong Kong, gold In Japan, gold bullion is traded at a premium of $4 per ounce, while it is sold at par. The same as last time, the product was sold with a discount of $6 or a premium of $1. The benchmark gold price for international trade was headed to a weekly increase after reaching a record-high of $4,642.72/ounce last Wednesday. Norman stated that the market is still hot, from both a retail and physical perspective. This applies to China, Europe, or even Australasia. ($1 = 90.6610 Indian rupees) (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru and Rajendra Jadhav in Mumbai; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Gold falls as dollar rises on the back of positive US data, reducing rate-cut betting
?Gold extended its losses on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic ?data ?dampened expectations of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates sooner and softening geopolitical frictions shrunk safe-haven demand for the metal. By 0619 GMT, spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,604.39 per ounce. The metal is expected to gain 2% in a week after reaching a record high of $4,642.72 last Wednesday. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery edged down 0.3% to $4,608.50. Kyle Rodda is an analyst with Capital.com. He said that the downward movement in gold began when the United States lowered the likelihood of any kind of intervention in the social unrest in Iran. The dollar is poised to gain a third week after data from the U.S. Labor Department revealed that weekly initial claims for unemployment fell 9,000, to a seasonally-adjusted 198,000. This was below the 215,000 economists expected. Metals priced in greenbacks are more expensive to other currency holders. Bullion is generally more attractive in low-interest rate environments. On Wednesday and Thursday people inside Iran said that protests seemed to have diminished since Monday, while U.S. president Donald Trump also struck down a more dovish tone in regards to military intervention against Iran. The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed ETF in the world, reported that its holdings increased by 0.05% to 1,074,80 tons on Thursday, their highest level in more than 3-1/2 years. According to a Vanda Research report published on Thursday, silver has become the most popular commodity in the market. Individual investors have been buying up silver at a rapid pace. Spot silver fell 1.9% to $90.61 an ounce. However, it was on track for a weekly gain of more than 13%. After hitting a low of $1,754.26 an ounce earlier, spot platinum fell 3.5%, to $2,326.36. Palladium also dropped 2.6%, to $1,326.36. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Phillips and Janane Vekatraman in Bengaluru, and Ishaan Verma from Bengaluru)
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How much longer before we intervene?
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like tomorrow. The markets were expected to close the week with a bang on Friday, as the artificial intelligence market regained its momentum. But for investors, the focus will be on the yen, and whether Tokyo can soon intervene to support?its currency. Satsuki Katayama, the Japanese Finance Minister, said that Tokyo would not "rule out any options" in order to combat the weakening yen. This could include a coordinated intervention with Washington. Her comments are the latest in a series of sarcastic remarks from the authorities in Tokyo in an attempt to stop the decline in the currency, which is down by about 1% this year. The yen gained on Friday. Its gains were further boosted by a report that Bank of Japan policymakers believe they can raise interest rates earlier than the markets expect. It is still on the verge of the 160-to-dollar mark, despite its recent fall to a 18-month low. Investors expect that Prime Minister Sanae Takayichi will be given a more powerful mandate for stimulating the economy in Japan's upcoming snap election. It remains to be determined how much weakness in the yen authorities will tolerate given its impact on fuel imports, food, and other materials, which could increase prices for broader consumer goods. Other than that, oil prices continued their steep declines since?the previous day and safe-havens like gold and silver stopped their dazzling rally after U.S. president Donald Trump took a wait and see attitude towards the unrests in Iran. He had earlier threatened to intervene. Trump claimed that he was told by Iranian officials that the crackdown against protests is easing. He also said that he did not believe there were any plans for large-scale executions. Investors have reduced their bets on Federal Reserve rate reductions this year after a series of positive economic data released on Thursday. According to CME FedWatch, the markets now price in a 67% probability that the Federal Reserve won't change rates in April. This is up from 37% one month ago. The odds of a stable outcome in June are also higher at 37.5% compared to last month's 17%. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. Fed's Collins Bowman and Jefferson speak - U.S. industrial production (December) Housing market index of the U.S. National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), January
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Gold falls as dollar rises on the back of positive US data, reducing rate-cut betting
Gold ?extended its losses on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data ?dampened expectations ?of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates sooner and softening geopolitical frictions shrunk safe-haven demand for the metal. By 0426 GMT, spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,598.52 an ounce. The metal is expected to gain 2% in a week after reaching a record high of $4,642.72 last Wednesday. U.S. gold futures for delivery in February fell by 0.5% to $4.601,80. Kyle Rodda is an analyst with Capital.com. He said that the downward movement in gold began when the United States lowered the likelihood of any intervention in the social unrest in Iran. The dollar is poised to gain a third weekly after the U.S. Labor Department reported that weekly initial claims for unemployment fell 9,000, seasonally adjusted, to 198,000. This was below the 215,000 economists expected. Metals priced in greenbacks are more expensive to other currency holders. Bullion is generally more attractive in low-interest rate environments. On Wednesday and Thursday people inside Iran said that protests had abated since Monday, while U.S. president Donald Trump has also taken a softer stance regarding military intervention. The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed ETF in the world, reported that its holdings increased by 0.05% to 1,074.80 tonnes on Thursday, their highest level in more than 3-1/2 years. According to a Vanda Research report published on Thursday, silver has become the most popular commodity in the market. Individual investors have been buying up silver at a rapid pace. Spot silver fell 1.8% to $90.70 an ounce. However, it was on track for a weekly gain of more than 13%. After hitting a low of $1,759.07 an ounce earlier, spot platinum fell 2.8% to $2342.14 and palladium dropped 2.3% to the same price. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Phillips and Janane Vekatraman in Bengaluru, and Ishaan Verma from Bengaluru)
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Iron ore prices fall as high prices discourage buyers
Iron ore futures fell on Friday, as the high prices and thin margins discouraged buyers in China, the world's largest consumer. As of 0330 GMT, the most-traded contract for May iron ore?on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange?traded 0.43% lower to?812.5 Yuan ($116.64), a metric tonne. This week, the contract has fallen by 0.25%. The benchmark iron ore for February on the Singapore Exchange fell 0.34% to $106.7 per ton. According to Mysteel's data, released on January 15, the total stocks of iron ore imported into China's main ports rose?for an eighth consecutive week? to a new record high of 165.6 millions tons. Steel mill stocks dropped 2.1% on a week-to-week basis, and transaction volumes for portside ore fell 20.3%, due to high prices, which made steel mills reluctant to buy more ore. Rio Tinto and BHP have teamed up to extract 200 million metric tonnes of iron ore in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. In December, iron ore shipments reached a record high. The shipments are expected to increase in 2026. Chinese broker Galaxy Futures said that iron ore prices will likely fall in the medium-term due to a combination of weaker fundamentals and a decline in domestic steel demand. The?China's central bank has announced that they will lower interest rates for re-lending services of one year and on various monetary policy tools. The bank also said that it is still possible to cut rates in this year. Investors' appetite for risk has increased as a result of easier funding access and looser monetary policies. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, fell by 1.29% and 1.09% respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have mostly increased. Hot-rolled coils and wire rod both grew by 0.46%. Rebar remained stable at 0.16%. Meanwhile, stainless steel fell 0.1%. $1 = 6.9658 Yuan (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema; Ruth Chai)
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Copper prices fall on China demand concerns but still heads for a weekly gain
Copper prices fell Friday due to concerns about demand prospects in China, the top consumer, following a downbeat data and lack of rate cuts. However, the metal was still on track for a gain this week, thanks to a tight supply outlook. By 0226 GMT, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had fallen 0.97%, to 102100 yuan (14,655.43) a metric ton. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.58%, to $13,029.5 a ton. The benchmarks are up around 0.5% this week. However, a stronger dollar has limited the gains. Copper prices are supported by mine disruptions, concerns about supply deficits, and the flow to the United States of metal ahead of potential tariffs that could tighten supply elsewhere. Shanghai and London benchmarks gained 4.2% and 7,6% respectively this month, following increases of 34% in 2025 and 44%. China's weaker loan data and plans to cut sector-specific rates of interest instead of benchmark policy rate have raised concerns about the demand outlook. China's new bank loans for 2025 have fallen to their lowest level in seven years, underlining the weak borrowing requirements amid a prolonged real estate downturn. The central bank also announced Thursday that it would be reducing interest rates in certain sectors to give the economy a?early kick-start,' a move which tends to only have a small impact on the growth. A poll showed that China's growth rate is likely to?slow down to 4.5% by 2026, and then maintain the same level in 2027. A poll revealed. Aluminium, nickel, lead, and zinc all fell in the SHFE. Shanghai tin fell by more than 6 percent following "moves" from the bourse that aimed to curb a price surge by increasing trading prices and margins, as well as limiting the number of open positions within a day at 800 lots. Aluminium, Nickel, Lead, Zinc, and Tin are among the other metals traded on the LME.
Biden not likely to cut Iran's oil lifeline after Israel attack
Iran's unmatched rocket and drone strike on Israel is not likely to trigger significant sanctions action on Iran's oil exports from the Biden administration due to fret about boosting oil costs and angering top purchaser China, said experts.
Shortly after Tehran introduced its weekend attack - retaliation for Israel's believed April 1 strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus - Home Republican politician leaders accused President Joe Biden of stopping working to implement existing procedures and said they would use up today a series of expenses to sharpen sanctions on Iran.
Speaking With Fox News on Sunday, Agent Steve Scalise the No. 2 House Republican, stated the administration had made it simpler for Iran to sell its oil, creating incomes that were being utilized to go fund terrorist activity.
The political pressure to punish Iran produces a thorny problem for the administration: how to deter such attacks in future without intensifying local tensions, raising oil prices or antagonizing China, the most significant buyer of Iranian oil.
Washington has actually stated for months that among its main objectives is to keep the Gaza dispute in between Palestinian group Hamas and Israel from metastasizing in to a larger local war, with a secret aim of keeping Tehran on the sidelines.
Several local experts said they doubted Biden would take substantial action to ramp up enforcement of existing U.S. sanctions to choke off Iran's crude exports, the lifeline of its economy.
Even if these expenses pass, it's tough to see the Biden administration going into overdrive, to try to spring into action or enforce existing sanctions or brand-new ones to attempt to cut or curb (Iranian oil exports) in any meaningful way, stated Scott Modell, a former CIA officer, now CEO of Rapidan Energy Group.
IMPOSING SANCTIONS
Former President Donald Trump restored U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil in 2018 after pulling out of a global deal on Tehran's nuclear program. The Biden administration has sought to punish evasion of those procedures with sanctions versus companies in China, the United Arab Emirates and somewhere else.
Regardless of those efforts, Rapidan estimates Iran's oil exports have actually hit 1.6 million to 1.8 million barrels a day, excluding condensates, a very light oil. That is close to the 2 million barrels a day Iran exported before sanctions, said Modell.
The possible effect on fuel costs is one factor Biden, a Democrat, might stagnate strongly to curb Iran's oil exports.
Kimberly Donovan, a sanctions and anti-money laundering specialist at the Atlantic Council, stated that oil-related sanctions have actually not been strictly implemented in the past couple of years.
I would not expect the administration to tighten up enforcement in response to Iran's rocket and drone attacks versus Israel over the weekend, generally for concerns (that). could result in boosts in oil costs, she stated.
The cost of oil and eventually the prices of gas at the. pump end up being crucial throughout an election year.
A State Department representative said the Biden administration. had actually not lifted any sanctions on Iran and continued to increase. pressure on the Islamic Republic.
Our extensive and overlapping sanctions on Iran remain in. location, and we continue to impose them, stated the representative.
THE CHINA FACTOR
Strongly enforcing sanctions might likewise destabilize the. U.S.-China relationship, which Chinese and U.S. officials have. attempted to repair following a rocky period after the U.S. last. year downed a presumed Chinese security balloon that. crossed U.S. area.
Almost all Iranian oil getting in China is branded as. stemming from Malaysia or other Middle Eastern nations and. is carried by a dark fleet of older tankers that usually. switch off their transponders when filling at Iranian ports to. prevent detection.
Tanker tracking professional Vortexa Analytics approximated. China acquired a record 55.6 million metric tons or 1.11 million. barrels of Iranian crude a day last year. That amounted to. approximately 90% of Iran's crude oil exports and 10% of China's oil. imports.
A number of experts recommended Washington may take some action. to cut Iran's oil exports in part to temper any Israeli reaction. to the Iranian strikes, which could escalate the dispute.
However they said this would fall short of remarkable action such. as approving a significant Chinese financial institution and instead. might involve targeting Chinese or other entities participated in. such trade.
If you actually want to pursue Iran's oil exports yes, you. would need to take meaningful action versus China, stated one. source knowledgeable about the issue.
Are you really going to pursue the big banks? Are you. going to do something that the administration has not done and. even the Trump administration did not do? he added.
Jon Alterman, a Middle East analyst at the Center for. Strategic and International Studies, said there were limitations to. what Washington can do to impose sanctions which evaders are. skilled at discovering loopholes.
I 'd expect to see a gesture in the instructions of
(source: Reuters)