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OPEC predicts that the world economy could do better in the second half of the year

OPEC predicts that the world economy could do better in the second half of the year

OPEC stated that the global economy could perform better than expected during the second half of this year despite the trade conflict. Refineries' crude intake will remain high to meet the increase in summer travel.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released a report every month on Tuesday. After reducing its estimates in April, the organization left their forecasts of global oil demand growth in 2025-2026 unchanged.

In the report, OPEC stated that "India, China and Brazil have outperformed expectations thus far, while United States and Eurozone continue to experience a rebound since last year."

The second half of 2025's economic growth could be better than expected.

OPEC+ (OPEC, Russia, and other allies) would be able to move forward with their plan to pump additional barrels in order to regain market shares after years of market support.

OPEC+ decided on July 5, to increase production by 548,000 barrels a day in August. This was the first time since oil prices jumped and then fell, after Israeli and U.S. attack on Iran, that they had agreed to this.

Oil prices are not falling as much as expected despite an OPEC+ increase that was larger than expected and Donald Trump's comments.

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The seasonal increase in demand is a major factor.

OPEC reported that global refinery crude consumption increased by 2.1 million bpd from May to June as refiners returned after maintenance. This is a sign of a strong oil market and a sign that the throughput will likely remain high.

OPEC stated that "refinery intakes worldwide, particularly in the U.S. are expected to remain elevated in order to meet seasonal increases in demand for transport fuels, in particular gasoline, jet/kerosene, and residual fuel."

OPEC's forecasts for demand are higher than other forecasters, because the agency anticipates a more gradual energy transition.

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Last week, the company lowered its forecasts for demand but stated that it may be tighter in reality as refineries increase processing to meet summer travel demands.

Brent crude remained steady at $69 a bar after OPEC released the report.

RISE IN OUTPUT

OPEC reported that OPEC+ pumped a total of 41.56 millions bpd in June, an increase of 349,000 bpd over May. The group's June quotas increased by 411,000 bpd, which is less than this.

The actual increase was less than the headline increase of quotas, partly because some countries, like Iraq, reduced output as part a pledge to further reduce for earlier pumping over targets.

Kazakhstan's output, which is being pressed to meet OPEC+ quotas despite a slight drop in May, increased last month and remained over the country’s quota.

OPEC reports that Kazakhstan's oil output increased by 64,000 bpd to 1.847m bpd. (Editing by Kirby Donovan and Joe Bavier).

(source: Reuters)