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Franco-Nevada CEO: Trump's policies are key to the gold price rally
The policies of U.S. president Donald Trump have devalued the dollar and fueled a gold rush, pushing prices to record highs above $4,000 per ounce in the past week, said Franco-Nevada's CEO, Franco-Nevada, on Thursday. Paul Brink, who spoke at a Melbourne business lunch, said that the combination of tariffs and a growing structural imbalance in the U.S. Trade Balance as well as the breakdown in trust in U.S. Institutions has accelerated "de-dollarisation". De-dollarisation is when countries stop relying on the dollar for financial transactions and as a currency reserve. Gold becomes more affordable to buyers who use other currencies when the dollar is weaker. Brink, the CEO of the $41.3 billion company that invests into gold mines for a portion of the revenue generated, said: "You could not have written a better script on how to undermine our dollar." The U.S. has lost its investment rating of 'AAA" due to tariffs that are reducing the U.S. share of international trade, and also eroding its currency. Its structural deficit is the worst of all the Group of Seven countries. He said, "The third thing that you need in order to be a reserve currency is an unbreakable faith in your institutions' independence." "And Mr. Trump undermined the banks. He plays a pivotal role in this. This, I'd say, is what drives this leg of the gold cycle," said he. Gold has risen 54% in the past year and now stands at $4,000 per troy-ounce. He said that a longer-term rally in gold prices will come from the way central banks view monetary policy, and their own reserves. He said that central banks are now aware of the fact that their citizens do not tolerate austerity. The way to get out of a recession is to increase liquidity. This will also boost the value of real estate and gold. He said that if gold prices are increasing at 9% per year, then the "rational goal" would be to estimate that in five years the gold price will reach $6,000 per ounce, and within 10 years it will hit $9,000. AUSTRALIA GROWTH Brink stated that Franco-Nevada plans to expand in Australia, and recently hired two people in the resource-rich Western Australia. He said that Franco-Nevada would also like to find junior goldmine developers. He told the audience that he was hiring because he wanted to concentrate more on Australia. Australia is the largest gold producer in the world. The product is set to The country's second-most valuable resource export Prices have risen to new records this year.
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Risk premium on oil drops as Gaza ceasefire reduces it
The oil prices dropped on Thursday as Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on the first phase of their plan to end the Gaza war, which eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the strength of the U.S. Dollar weighed down on commodities. Brent crude futures fell 34 cents or 0.51% to $65.91 per barrel at 0413 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 38 cents or 0.61% to $62.17. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, said that WTI crude was trading on the lower side of the pendulum due to the reduction in geopolitical risks premium caused by the Israel-Hamas agreement. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas reached a long sought-after deal on a Gaza ceasefire, including the release of hostages. The plan was to end the war that has raged in the Palestinian enclave for two years. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, said that he will convene the Israeli government on Thursday in order to approve the ceasefire accord. Investors have been weighing the risk of a regional war escalating into a global conflict that could affect oil supplies. Michael McCarthy, CEO Moomoo Australia & New Zealand and the investor platform Moomoo Australia, stated that the Gaza ceasefire will not affect the oil supply in Middle East, as OPEC+ haven't met their increased production targets. The group of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed on Sunday that the November production increase would be smaller than the market expected, thus easing concerns about oversupply. McCarthy said that the strength of the U.S. Dollar against the Japanese yen, and the euro has a general impact on commodities. Oil priced in dollars has become more costly for investors who hold other currencies. Investors viewed the stalled progress in a Ukraine peace agreement as maintaining sanctions against Russia. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that the total weekly U.S. supply of petroleum products, which is a proxy for U.S. consumption, increased last week to 21,990 million barrels a day. This was the highest since December 2022. Analysts at JP Morgan said that global oil demand started on a more moderate note in October, as a number of consumption indicators such as container arrivals in the Port of Los Angeles and truck toll mileage in Germany, along with container throughput in China all pointed to a slowdown in activity. In a note to clients, JP Morgan analysts reported that global oil demand was 105.9 millions bpd on average in the first week of October. This is an increase of 300,000 from last year and 90,000 below their estimates. They said that the pace of the global crude and product inventory build also slowed. It increased by 8 million barrels in the last week. This was the slowest growth rate over the past five weeks. (Reporting from Florence Tan in Singapore, Georgina McCartney at Houston and Christopher Cushing in Houston)
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Shanghai copper reaches a 16-month high due to supply concerns
Shanghai copper prices jumped by more than 16 months on Thursday, as China resumed trading after National Day. Concerns over supply from large mines supported the price in a market that was already tight. By 0330 GMT, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen 3.64%, to 86250 yuan per metric tonne ($12102.72). The contract reached its highest level since May 22, 2020 at 86 390 yuan earlier in the session. As of 0333 GMT, the benchmark three-month copper price on London Metal Exchange had risen by 1.11% to $10,787.5 per tonne. On Wednesday, it briefly reached $10,815, a 16-month high. The International Copper Study Group reduced its estimate of 2025 market surplus to 178,000 tonnes from 289,000 due to disruptions in major mines, including Freeport’s massive Grasberg mining complex in Indonesia which has been closed for a full month. The group expects to have a deficit of 150,000 tons in 2026 compared to its previous estimate, which was a surplus of 209,000 tons. Teck Resources reduced its production forecast at the flagship Chilean Copper Mine Quebrada Blanca until 2028 on Wednesday. The dollar's downward trend also helped copper prices. The weaker dollar means that commodities priced in dollars are cheaper for traders who use other currencies. The most active contact, which is tin, rose 2.86% to 286,010 Yuan per ton, as Indonesia, the top exporter, intensified its crackdown this week on illegal tin mines. On Monday, Indonesia transferred assets, including smelters, equipment and PT Timah, a state-owned tin mining company, to the miner. President Prabowo subianto urged all authorities, including the military, Custom Office and Coast Guard, to continue efforts to stop illegal exploitation. Nickel, aluminium, and zinc all saw increases of 1.49%. Lead increased by 0.89%. ($1 = 7.1265 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Dylan Duan and Lewis Jackson; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu) $1 = 7.1265 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Dylan Duan, Lewis Jackson)
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Lithuania Scraps Second Offshore Wind Tender as Only One Bidder Applies
Lithuania’s National Energy Regulatory Council (NERC) has announced that the second offshore wind tender, which targeted the development 700 MW of offshore wind capacity in the Baltic Sea, failed as it attracted only one bid.NERC informed that only one participant had registered to participate in Lithuania’s second offshore wind tender before the deadline, which means the tender is deemed invalid.According to Lithuania’s Law on Renewable Energy, a tender is considered not to have taken place if fewer than two participants register to take part in it.Applications for participation in this tender were accepted from June 9 to September 8, 2025.The tender procedures were temporarily suspended by a government decision and later resumed on October 6, with applications accepted until October 7 inclusive.As reported earlier, Ignitis Group, a Lithuanian state-owned energy holding company, confirmed it submitted a bid in the tender.Ignitis Group Places Bid for 700MW Baltic Sea Offshore Wind TenderOn October 8, tender committee today decided to propose that NERC deem the tender as having not taken place. The corresponding resolution will be adopted at the next NERC meeting.NERC has emphasized that the decision to announce a new tender rests with the government.The tender committee consists of two NERC representatives and one representative each delegated by the Ministry of Energy, the Competition Council, the Lithuanian Energy Agency, Vilnius University, and Kaunas University of Technology.
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After a record-breaking run, gold takes a break.
On Thursday, gold took a break from its record-breaking run as investors booked profits. This was a day after the bullion broke the $4,000 per ounce barrier for the first ever time on the back of economic and geopolitical uncertainty and the hope that the U.S. will continue to cut interest rates this year. Gold spot fell by 0.4%, to $4,020.99 an ounce, as of 0302 GMT. It had hit a record-high of $4,059.05 per ounce on Wednesday. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell by 0.7% to $4 040.70. Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on Wednesday to implement the first phase in U.S. president Donald Trump's plan to end the bloody war that has raged for two years between Israel and Hamas. The U.N. calls this conflict a genocide. Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda said: "You can't ignore the significance of the first phase deal between Israel and Hamas, given that one of the main reasons gold has been rising is due to geopolitical risk. But it's likely just an excuse for taking profits after another record was set." According to minutes from the Federal Reserve's September 16-17 meeting, released on Wednesday, officials acknowledged that the risks facing the U.S. employment market were sufficiently high to justify a rate reduction, but they remained cautious due to stubborn inflation. According to the CME FedWatch, markets are pricing in 25 basis-point cuts in both October and December with probabilities of respectively 94% and 79%. Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low interest rate environments and when there are geopolitical and economic uncertainties. The global markets have struggled in the past week due to political turmoil in Japan, France and the United States, as well as a government shutdown that continues. This has led many investors to seek safety in gold. Gold is up 54% in the last year due to strong central bank purchases, an increase in demand for gold-backed Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), and a weaker US dollar. Silver spot fell 0.1%, to $48.83 an ounce after reaching a record high of $49.57 per ounce on Wednesday. Palladium fell 0.1% and platinum 0.8%, respectively, to $1 447.81. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Sumana Nandy)
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Iron ore prices rise on Chinese mill restocking but margin pressures continue
Iron ore futures rose on Thursday, boosted by the restocking of Chinese steel mills after National Day, but profit margins, and concerns about trade restrictions for steel, weighed on the market sentiment. As of 0256 GMT, the most traded January iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was up 1.09 percent to 791.5 Yuan ($111.03). On the Singapore Exchange, benchmark October iron ore traded at $104.35 per ton, up 0.14%. According to Hexun Futures, following the Chinese National Day, some steelmills have started replenishing their inventories. However, profit margins are still under pressure because of high coke prices. The iron ore markets have been quieter than usual in recent weeks due to the closing of Chinese markets. Analysts from ANZ have noted that further attempts to limit China's exports of steel are likely to cause concern in the market. The European Commission has proposed that the tariff-free steel importquotas be reduced by nearly half in order to boost the competitiveness and efficiency of EU steelmakers. The EU's steel producers are only operating at 67% capacity due to rising imports from the U.S. and U.S. Tariffs. These measures will push this up to 80%. The EU announced its plans to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on Chinese products and steel. China exported 368,000 tonnes, or 4% of its steel exports in 2024, to the EU. In the meantime, China's national iron ore buyer halted its purchases of iron-ore cargoes by Australian miner BHP earlier this month during annual price negotiation. This standoff could put further pressure on the margins of steel producers. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, have lost ground on the DCE. They fell by 0.7% and 1.09 %, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed.
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China tightens rare earth export controls, targets defence, semiconductor users
China tightened export controls for rare earths on Thursday. It expanded restrictions on processing technologies, barred unauthorised cooperation with overseas users, and stated its intention to restrict exports to overseas semiconductor and defence users. The announcement by the Ministry of Commerce clarifies, and expands on, sweeping controls announced last April. These controls caused massive shortages in the United States and Europe before a series of agreements with Europe and America resumed shipments. China produces 90% of the processed permanent magnets and 60% of the global mine output. Rare earths are essential materials used in everything from electric vehicles and aircraft engines to military radars. Export restrictions on technology for rare earth magnets are being expanded to include more types of magnets. Export licences are now required for equipment used to recycle rare Earths, which is another technology China has restricted. The ministry has stated that manufacturers who use Chinese components or machines must also apply for export licences. In the announcement, China clarified some of its restrictions for the first. The ministry stated that overseas defence users would not be granted licenses. Applications related to advanced semiconductors are only approved on an individual basis. Chinese companies are not allowed to work with foreign companies on rare earths unless they have permission from the Ministry. Reporting by Lewis Jackson, Beijing; Editing and proofreading by Christian Schmollinger & Kate Mayberry
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Middle East risk premium fading as oil falls on Gaza plan
Early Thursday, oil prices dropped after Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on the first phase of the plan to end the Gaza war. This weighed on the war risk premium for oil and pushed investors to sell. Brent crude futures fell 51 cents or 0.77% to $65.74 per barrel at 0002 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 55 cents or 0.88% to $62. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas reached a long sought-after deal on a Gaza ceasefire, including the release of hostages. The plan was to end the war that has raged in the Palestinian enclave for two years. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, said that he will convene the Israeli government on Thursday in order to approve the ceasefire accord. Investors have been weighing the risk of a regional war escalating into a global conflict that could affect oil supplies. Investors viewed the stalled progress in a Ukraine peace agreement as maintaining sanctions against Russia. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that the total weekly U.S. supply of petroleum products, which is a proxy for U.S. consumption of oil, increased last week to 21,990 million barrels a day, the highest since December 2022. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing in Houston, Georgina McCartney from Houston)
Tight supply, solar need drive antimony costs to record high
Prices of antimony, a strategic metal used in flameretardants, batteries and munitions, are increasing to record highs as solar sector need outstrips supply, triggering a. broad deficit with little indication of alleviating, smelters and analysts. say.
The rise in costs, which market individuals expect to. persist, highlights the West's vulnerability in depending on top. manufacturer China for essential minerals and could likewise force end-users. to find alternatives for some applications.
Antimony ingot in China climbed to a record 127,500 yuan. ($ 17,588.88) per metric load on May 29, up 56% in 2024, data from. the Shanghai Metals Exchange revealed. European costs have likewise. reached a record $21,000 a ton, up 75% this year, Fastmarkets. data revealed.
Internationally, decreasing ore grades and depleting mines are. squeezing antimony supply, Chinese investment bank CICC said in. a report.
The rise has been almost totally supply driven. It is not. clear when the supply restrictions will enhance, said CRU. analyst Chetan Soni, pointing out different supply disruptions in. Myanmar, Oman, Tajikistan and Vietnam.
China, among the world's top antimony manufacturers and users. for more than a century, accounted for 48% of worldwide antimony. mine production last year, U.S. Geological Study data showed,. although its reserves fell to 640,000 loads, down from 950,000. loads in 2012.
Antimony materials from Russia, the world's fifth-largest. manufacturer, have been interrupted by Western sanctions over Moscow's. intrusion of Ukraine, producers, traders and analysts said. Russia accounted for 24% of China's antimony supply last year,. but Chinese customs information programs there were no shipments in March. and April.
A sales supervisor at Chinese smelter who decreased to be. recognized stated that producers of finished atimony who do not. have their own ore materials and need to acquire from in other places are. running at just 25% capacity.
The issue exists is not adequate ore, said a sales. manager at a 2nd Chinese smelter.
Increasing demand for arms and ammo due to wars and. geopolitical stress is likely to see tightening up control and. stockpiling of antimony ore, analysts at China Securities said. in a note.
Christopher Ecclestone, primary and mining strategist at. Hallgarten & & Co, stated private western military purchasing is. also driving antimony need. The supply crisis is not going. away and the military have bottomless pockets, he said.
China Merchants Securities projections antimony need from. the photovoltaic sector, where the metal is utilized to improve the. performance of solar batteries, will increase to 68,000 tons in 2026. from 16,000 lots in 2021, with the sector's share in total. consumption rising to 39% from 11%. It anticipates the supply gap. will broaden to 21,000 lots by 2026 from 8,000 heaps last year.
It's basically challenging to see a quick increase in supply,. however the market at the moment most likely needs in excess of 10,000. tons of material to cut the deficits, stated Nils Backeberg, an. analyst at consultancy Project Blue, who said he does not anticipate. prices to be preserved at $20,000 per ton over the longer term,. but expects long-lasting levels in the $12,000-$ 14,000 range.
At the current rates, we will see effects to the need. market, he said. There will be substitutions, there will be. options being used, but there will be some time in getting. those options.
Rising antimony prices have pushed the share prices of. Chinese manufacturers including Hunan Gold, Tibet Huayu. Mining and Guangxi Huaxi Non-Ferrous up. between 66% and 95% in 2024.
More supply takes years to reach fruition, though. federal governments are making efforts to find brand-new sources.
In April, Perpetua Resources Corp got a letter. of interest from the U.S. Export-Import Bank for a loan up to. $ 1.8 billion to develop an antimony and gold mine in Idaho, part. of Washington's efforts to offset China's crucial minerals. supremacy.
Perpetua's Stibnite mine would be the only U.S. antimony. source and according to the company might meet 35% of U.S. demand in its first 6 years. The Department of Defense has. committed nearly $60 million to fund its allowing procedure,. which has lasted eight years, to boost U.S. production for. bullets and other weapons.
(source: Reuters)