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Iron ore to suffer seventh-week loss due to soaring inventory and falling steel demand
Iron ore fell on Friday, and was headed for a seventh consecutive weekly loss. This was due to a swollen portside inventory, faltering steel demand in China's top consumer, as well as falling global freight rates. The most traded iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange has fallen 1.5%, to 733.5 Yuan ($107.83), a metric tonne, and is down 1.7% for the week. The benchmark July Iron Ore at the?Singapore Exchange is 0.5% lower, $96.95 per ton. This represents a 2.3% drop so far this week. Stocks of iron ore piled up in ports across China due to a rise in supply by major suppliers. Prices of this key steel-making ingredient are under pressure. According to Mysteel, the Chinese portside iron ore inventory rose 1.3% from the previous week. China's steel demand was also affected by the high temperatures in summer, which hampered outdoor activities in certain regions. Also, trade barriers around the world are increasing and limiting exports. Analysts at Everbright Futures wrote in a report that "the rapid decline in downstream steel consumption" will determine ore prices in the medium-term. The United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to end their more than three-month-long?war, which has removed a layer of support for iron ore. Coke and other steelmaking materials, such as coking coal, fell by 0.88% and 1.13 %, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks have mostly fallen. Hot-rolled coils fell 0.51% and wire rod dropped 0.15%.
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Gold set for fourth-week loss due to Fed's hawkish bets
Friday saw gold?fall for a fourth consecutive weekly?fall? as a strong dollar and expectations that the U.S. would raise rates faster to combat inflation kept the bullion price below $4,000 an ounce. By 0247 GMT, spot gold had fallen 0.9% to $3.991.49 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 1% to $4.007.30. On Wednesday, the bullion market was on course for a 4% loss for the week after it fell below the $4,000 mark for the first time since 2025. The rapid repricing by the hawkish Fed led to a strong bullish momentum for the U.S. Dollar, which ultimately led to the significant decline in gold prices, said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA. The U.S. Dollar Index held near its highest level since May 2025, and was on track for a second consecutive weekly gain. This made gold more expensive for those who hold other currencies. Wong believes that the gold price has been in a multi-month decline since late January's record high. He sees this correction continuing in the future towards $3,400. Gold prices fell by about 29% from their record high of $5,594.82 in January 29 as inflation fueled by the U.S. - Iran war pushed up rate-hike betting. According to data released on Thursday, U.S. inflation increased in May and broke above 4.0%, for the first time since?three years. This was predicted by economists who were surveyed. Gold is often viewed as an inflation hedge, but it loses its appeal in high interest rate environments as a non yielding asset. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders?expect a Fed rate increase in September and have priced it at about 64%. Silver spot fell 3.2% per ounce to $56.01, platinum dropped 2.4% to 1,563.20 and palladium was down 1.6% at $1,165.93. All metals were heading for a loss. (Reporting from Bengaluru by Pablo Sinha; Additional reporting by Swati verma; Editing and proofreading by Subhranshu Sahu).
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Don't confuse turbulence and decline. McGeever: This market is on its feet
The markets are awash with red flags that warn of another turbulent second half in 2026. Don't mistake turbulence for a sign of a correction. Late bull markets are often characterized by wild volatility, eye-watering price fluctuations and a wide range of asset classes and benchmark indices. This is when exuberance becomes irrational, to paraphrase late Federal Reserve chair?Alan Greenspan. These dynamics are playing out in varying degrees on many markets. Silver has fallen 55% since its January peak and Bitcoin's value has dropped by more than half since November. The tech market has been a volatile ride -- the SOX Philadelphia semiconductor index posted 10% daily drops, but was still up 90% from March. Micron Technology tripled to a $1 Trillion market cap in just three months. South Korean stocks are a perfect example of the turmoil -- and resilience -- that marked the first half of 2026. The AI-pumped KOSPI had a bullish market, rising by 50% in the first 2 months of the year. But it plunged into a bearish market three days later after the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran. It's no wonder that realized volatility has risen to new heights. Since that low in march, the KOSPI index has almost doubled despite four corrections of double-digits. This type of frenzied behaviour is usually preceded by a steeper correction or bear market. These wild price swings, coupled with sky-high prices and a growing IPO mania are putting investors in high alert. Even if the diagnosis of "irrational markets" is correct, and they are heading into this territory, fears about a sharp market correction may be premature. Room for EXUBERANCE Wall Street certainly seems to believe that. JPMorgan strategists and Barclays analysts raised their forecasts for the S&P 500 at the end of 2026 to 7,800, which implies a further 5% increase. Meanwhile, BCA Research analysts increased their year-end outlook to 8,100 points, almost 10% higher than current levels. BCA's team stated on Tuesday that "our constructive equity view is based on earnings and not valuation." The economy has moved from a slowdown to an expansion. Investments continue to grow, and earnings are stronger than expected. This is a compelling argument until hard evidence to the contrary emerges. Rarely, bull markets can fall under their own weight. A sharp reversal is more likely to be triggered by a factor, such as an unexpected financial shock, a sudden rise in interest rates or a policy mistake. We haven't seen one yet. In the first half of this year, we have seen a war, an unprecedented global energy crunch, a shift to hawkish Fed communication, and a growing concern over hyperscalers’ capex expenditure and debt issuance. Investors have shrugged off all of it. JPMorgan’s Dubravko Lakos–Bujas and his team understand that even if the path of U.S. equity prices is up, it may be “non-linear” and there will be various obstacles to overcome. Recent earnings have 'raise the bar' for future earnings. The IPOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and other companies are expected to increase the equity supply. The Fed may soon stop talking about tightening its monetary policy and start actually raising rates. Rising borrowing costs are one of the main causes of "death" for bull markets. There's no doubt that the U.S. Central Bank's recent hawkish pivot is behind the recent weakness in certain risky assets. Investors will continue to see downdrafts, if earnings remain stable, AI continues its craze and the global economic system keeps on chugging, as a buying opportunity. Greenspan's famous "irrational" exuberance comment was made in December 1996 - more than three years before the peak of the dotcom bubble in March 2000. The current rally may have a long way to go. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Agroconsult reports that Brazil's second-corn production outlook for 2025/26 is up, but still lags behind the last cycle.
Agroconsult, a Brazilian agribusiness consultancy, has increased its estimates for the key second-corn crops in 2025/26 by 3.4%. However, the projections still fall short of the previous season's record output due to bad weather. Agroconsult, citing the results of its Rally da Safra tour, said that the second-corn harvest, which is the majority of Brazil's corn crop and is currently being harvested, will reach 115.8 millions metric tons during the 2025/26 crop season. Agroconsult reported that Brazil's outlook for its second-corn crop, which is planted in the same fields after soybeans have been harvested, shows a 7.6% drop from a record production cycle of 125.3 millions tons. This is due to unpredictable weather, which has a negative impact on production, despite a relatively stable planted area. Brazil is the third largest corn producer in the world and a major corn exporter. Agroconsult reported that weather-related problems affected the states of Goias, Minas Gerais and the southeast area of 'Mato Grosso. Agroconsult reported that "in these regions, the planting took place outside of the window considered to be ideal", leading to a decrease in planted area as well as significant losses when rains stopped prematurely in April or May. Agroconsult reported that Brazilian corn farmers will harvest a total of 144.1 millions tons of corn in 2025/26, which is above the May forecast of 140.5 million tons, but below the 152.3 million ton record of the previous crop. The consultancy also predicted a decline in exports from the previous cycle, estimating that the South American nation?will send 37?million tonnes of corn abroad this season, a drop of 11.3%. Analysts at the consultancy firm stated that lower exports are due to competition from the United States, Argentina and an expanding corn-based industry in 'homeland, which offers often better profit potential than exporting. "Brazil is awash in ethanol, but the price the industry pays for it, which is above parity, means that we are losing our competitiveness on the export market," said Adriano Lotti, partner and grain market manager at Agroconsult. Reporting by Roberto Samora, Writing by Isabel Teles and Andre Romani, Editing by Daina Bet Solomon and Lincoln Feast.
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California asks court to stop reversal state emission regulations
California filed a preliminary order on Thursday to stop the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is preparing landmark state vehicle emission rules for possible?repeal of Congress. The Trump administration EPA stated earlier this month that waivers?under Clean Air Act approved by California environmental regulations under previous Democratic administrations, should have been sent under the Congressional Review Act to legislators. California filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court, Washington earlier this week to seek a preliminary order that would stop the EPA's action. This move could threaten California's vehicle emission?program, which has been adopted by 12 other states and forced automakers into a drastic reduction of tailpipe pollution. California has noted that over the last 60 years, it has received approximately 75 waivers from emission regulations and maintains parallel regulatory programs with?the federal government to control emissions. The state stated that "the first Trump administration tried to blow a gap in this two program structure." "The second Trump Administration wants to destroy it completely." The EPA didn't immediately comment. Donald Trump, the Republican president of the United States, has launched a multifaceted campaign to prevent California from requiring cleaner vehicles and electric vehicles. The EPA also enacted regulations that make it easier for automakers sell more gasoline powered cars and trucks while making it costlier to buy EVs. California was granted authority to set its own emission standards in 2009 for cars, trucks and lawn and garden equipment. These rules have prompted companies to develop cleaner electric models in order to reduce emissions. California's EPA, then headed by Joe Biden, approved the current vehicle emissions rules in 2022. California's regulations require automakers sell an increasing number of electric cars and adhere to increasingly strict limits on tailpipe emission. These rules are "much stricter" than the ones imposed by Trump's administration, who plans to "rollback federal fuel efficiency rules". After Toyota, GM, and 'other automakers' lobbied to be relieved of California's emmissions regulations, Congress revoked the authority for Californians to ban traditional gasoline-powered cars after 2035. The EPA had sent the waiver to Congress for review after it received the waiver. Many Democratic legislators argued that waivers were not subject to review under the CRA. California and other state also challenged this waiver submission before Congress in court. (Reporting and editing by Franklin Paul, Aurora Ellis and David Shepardson)
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After deadly earthquake, international aid is heading to Venezuela
After two powerful earthquakes in?Venezuela on Wednesday, governments and humanitarian groups have started sending cash, teams of rescuers, and other aid. The death toll is expected to increase. According to the latest statistics, the back-to-back earthquakes, measuring 7.2 & 7.5 in magnitude, struck roughly 160 km (100 miles), west of Caracas. They damaged at least 250 buildings, and trapped about 200 people. U.N. HUMANITARIAN AFFAIRS OFFICE Tom Fletcher, the U.N.'s chief of aid, said that the office for humanitarian affairs was in charge of coordinating the deployments by international teams to search and rescue urban areas. He said that "the coming days will demand a massive effort collective to support the response led by government and help communities." He said that 8 million people needed humanitarian assistance in the country even before the earthquake, and now the disaster may make them even more vulnerable. U.S. State Department The U.S. State Department announced that it would mobilize $150 million of humanitarian aid to?Venezuela. This included $50 million of new bilateral funding to partners like the U.N. World Food Programme, nonprofit organization International Medical Corps, and $100 million as a contribution to an?U.N. The pooled funds. Washington will also send a disaster response unit with two urban search and rescue units and provide airlift, logistic and coordination support for moving personnel and lifesaving supplies to affected areas, according to the State Department. The State Department said that the search and rescue effort is their immediate need. The U.S. Military is helping to transport supplies and personnel, as well as support other relief efforts. POPE LEO VIII Vatican media reported that Pope Leo sent EUR100,000.00 ($114,000.00) from the Vatican charity fund to Venezuela as relief for the quake. WORLD CENTRAL KITCHEN Jose Andres, chef and founder of the 'humanitarian food provider World Central Kitchen', announced on Thursday that his team has begun distributing meals to Caracas. He said on X, that his Longer Tables Fund would immediately donate $1 million to Venezuela. EL SALVADOR On X, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele said that 300 paramedics and rescue workers were ready to travel to Venezuela with 50 tons medical supplies. MEXICO The Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum announced that a team of medical and rescue personnel had left for Venezuela. Mexico will send 250 military rescue personnel as well as five rescue dogs, four planes, a drone and rescue equipment. COLOMBIA The National Unit for Disaster Risk Management in Colombia has mobilized a search-and rescue team for Venezuela that includes more than 60 members, four dog teams and 12 metric tonnes of equipment. The mayor of Cali announced that nine firefighters would be helping with the search and rescue efforts. ECUADOR Ecuador will send a team of rescuers to Venezuela on Friday, which includes 46 urban search-and-rescue experts, two dogs, and six metric tons (?six) of equipment. The statement from the foreign ministry of Ecuador said that this is the plan. PANAMA Panama's President Jose Raul Mulino announced that the country would send a rescue team to Venezuela, and organize humanitarian aid. Mulino stated that authorities have opened donation points to send to Caracas in response to the country's aid response. FRANCE FRANCE said it was deploying a search and rescue unit in Venezuela, including medical teams and engineers as well as dogs to locate and remove survivors from collapsed building. A military plane will bring 57 soldiers and 40 firefighters from the Madrid area to Venezuela, according to the Spanish Defense Ministry. The Spanish development agency plans to?set up a field clinic in Venezuela. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani stated that firefighters, the Ministry of Defense and the Air Force were mobilized to offer assistance.
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The dollar is steady near its one-year high as world stocks rise on the chip rally
Investors remained cautious about the?extended valuations of AI-related stocks, but global stock prices rose Thursday. The?dollar also hovered around a year-high. The Dow Jones rose on Wall Street led by materials, industrials and healthcare stocks. The S&P 500 ended essentially flat. Micron rose 15.7% as the memory chipmaker’s strong forecast helped extend its AI driven ascent. Qualcomm gained 3.8% following its announcement that it anticipates sales of $15 billion per year from its data centers business by 2029. Nasdaq fell, but was dragged lower by the choppy trading of most megacap tech stocks. Apple dropped 6.1%, while Microsoft fell 3.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 0.14% higher, while the S&P500 was flat and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.46%. AI VALUATIONS AND INTEREST RATE DRIVE SENTIMENT Concerns from investors that the valuations of AI related?companies are stretched after years' gains have weighed on the markets, causing volatile sessions in recent days. The markets are also pricing higher interest rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and other central banks. Marc Dizard is chief investment officer of Huntington Wealth Management. He said that if you compare the S&P 500 without technology to the tech sector, going back to the year 2000, the two are about 2.8 standard differences apart. When you consider the magnitude of the move, we don't find it surprising that there would be a slight pause in the market, as well as some consolidation and rebalancing, where investors take profits off the table. The broad STOXX 600 index rose by 0.80% in Europe. MSCI's global index of stocks rose by 0.37%. "Technology will be a long-term asset, as the story unfolds. Not necessarily within the next six month." Dizard added that when the Fed adopts a more hawkish stance, long-term assets will be sold off during this time. U.S. data showed that inflation in the United States rose above 4% for the first three years on Thursday, as energy prices were boosted by the Middle East conflict. However, the monthly reading came in slightly below expectations and helped to lower yields. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes fell 0.59 basis points to 4.394%. The yield on the 2-year note fell 1.2 basis point to 4.125%. OIL BACK AT PRE-WAR LEVELS Oil 'prices' edged up but remained near levels seen just before the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. This was due to the expectation of a rising Middle East supply outweighing demand concerns. Brent crude futures closed up?2% to $75.26 per barrel. The dollar dropped against its major counterparts but was still near its highest levels in the last?year. The euro last stood at $1.137 - a whisker over Wednesday's 13 month low. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is near its lowest level in 40 years versus the dollar. The yen was unchanged against the greenback, at 161,80 per dollar. The dollar index fell by 0.15%, to 101.45, measuring the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies. The dollar dropped, and gold rose. Spot gold increased 0.64%, to $4 026.09 per ounce. Reporting by Chibuike OGOH in New York, additional reporting by Alun JOHN; Editing by Kevin Liffey; Edmund Klamann; Rod Nickel
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PREVIEW: Austria and Algeria will shoot it out for second in Group J
Austria and Algeria are set to face off in Kansas City for the second place in their World Cup Group J. A draw could be a good outcome for both teams as they 'push for a spot in the round of 32. Argentina has already been?confirmed? as the pool winner, while Austria and Algeria both have three points each and Jordan zero going into the final rounds of games. A draw would see Austria retain their position due to the superior goal-difference. Algeria, however, would advance as one of the top three teams in the 12 groups, with four points. There is an interesting twist in this story. It might be better to finish third than second in the group. The runner-up will face Spain, who are a favourite, in the round-of-32, while the team that finishes third could be up against the Group?B champions, Switzerland. Austria and Algeria were both?on the receiving end of a 'Lionel Messi Masterclass' when they faced Argentina, but it looks like this matchup will be more equal. The Algerian forward Mohamed Amoura is doubtful after missing the 2-1 win over Jordan, and Austria's Stefan Posch played against Argentina with a fractured jaw but seemed to have recovered well. Austria coach Ralf Rangnick said he is 'disappointed' with his team for losing to the Argentines, but he was happy with their performance and hinted that they would have a try against the Algerians. He said that during every World Cup match, there are certain phases in which one team has the momentum on their side. "I would have asked my players to show more courage... "I think we were very impressive in the second-half." Vladimir Petkovic, the Algeria coach, is also satisfied with his team and says he's?pleased that they have everything to play for in the final match. Petkovic stated, "I believe we have produced two good performances." "To?have the fate of our team in our own hands. "We're in good shape, even though nothing has been decided yet." This matchup is reminiscent of the infamous "Disgrace in Gijon" at the 1982 World Cup when Austria and West Germany played to a tie that eliminated Algeria from the competition. (Reporting and editing by Christian Radnedge.)
Oil prices fall amid the resumption in shipments through the strait, despite a vessel collision near Oman
The oil prices dropped on Friday morning, and are headed for steep losses this week amid easing supply concerns. More oil tankers have left the Strait of Hormuz as stranded vessels leave.
Brent crude futures dropped 19 cents or 0.25% to $75.07 per barrel at 0055 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was down 13 cents or 0.18% to $71.79 per barrel.
The benchmark contracts both rose more than 2% after an unknown projectile hit a cargo ship near Oman. This prompted the U.N. shipping agency to suspend their voluntary evacuation scheme.
Two U.S. officials said that Iran shot at the cargo ship when it was trying to pass through the strait. Iranian authorities have said that the safety of vessels traveling outside designated Hormuz route is not guaranteed.
The geopolitical risks are creeping into the prices again. Markets will be closely watching to see if the tanker traffic returns or if the latest obstacles force producers to halt planned production increases.
Brent crude and WTI oil are both expected to lose close to 7% of their value this week.
After a ceasefire agreement reopened the Strait of Hormuz, data showed that crude shipments rose to their highest level since the U.S./Israeli conflict began with Iran in February. Concerns about the length of time the Strait would remain open also helped boost trade.
The overall traffic is still a fraction of the daily average of 125 vessels that passed through the Strait before the conflict on February 28.
The earthquakes that occurred in Venezuela on Thursday have also caused supply concerns.
Workers have so far reported that the damage to Venezuela's vast oil, gas, and refining infrastructure is minimal, since most of the largest production regions, refineries, pipelines, and terminals, are located far away from the worst-hit areas.
Sources said that a lack of power is still causing concern about whether the oil production can be maintained at its pre-earthquake levels, which were close to 1.2m barrels per day. (Reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson and Sam Li)
(source: Reuters)