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Falling oil prices provide support for bonds in trouble
US Treasury yields stabilized on Friday, with benchmark 10-year note yields moving lower for the day as oil prices fell, after having earlier reached new'multi-decade highs', and traders priced in more Federal Reserve interest rate increases. The AI industry continued to be a source of optimism, which boosted the stock market. The oil price fell by about 3% as traders grew more hopeful of a possible truce between Iran and the US. However, they were also concerned that the Houthi fighters' increased attacks on Saudi Arabia could cause a disruption in the Middle Eastern producers supply. The US Treasury yields are at their highest level since the financial crises, mainly due to persistent concerns about inflation. While the latest signs of 'diplomatic progress' in the Middle East may have temporarily eased geopolitical worries, the market is still unconvinced of the prospect of a normalization of the global energy supply," said Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets head of US rates. The bond market is experiencing a daily downward trend. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Yield fell 0.37 basis point to 5.158% after earlier reaching 5.2297% - the highest since 2007. The 30-year bond rate rose by 2.63 basis points, to 5.4883%. It had previously reached 5.5319%. The ICE BofA MOVE Index is a measure for?bond market volatility. It has risen by about 30% in the last week. This is the biggest increase since April 2025's Liberation Day tariff chaos. A survey released on Friday showed that US consumer sentiment fell to a new low of four months in September, amid fears?that rising prices would reduce the purchasing power of households. Japan's 10-year bonds yield reached 3.121% elsewhere, a record level last seen in 1996. Five of the most influential central bankers in the Group of 10 have increased rates this month. The rest have signaled a pending hike or warned of increasing inflation. STOCKS STAY BOUGANT The stock market has remained resilient despite bond market turmoil. US stocks have rallied on AI-driven optimism, and hope for improved Middle East oil supplies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.93%. The S&P 500 rose by 0.51%, and the Nasdaq Composite grew by 0.48%. Microsoft's 2026 gain jumped to 7% after it unveiled new features in its Copilot application, such as a coding app and an AI agent that is always on. The MSCI?gauge for stocks around the world rose by 0.53%. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.35%. US President Donald Trump hosted Xi Jinping, the Chinese President, at 'the White House' on Thursday. The lavish summit was laden with symbolism, but lacking in substance. There were no signs of progress on thorny topics such as AI and trade, Taiwan, or even the 'war with Iran. DOLLAR OPTIMISM Analysts expect further Fed tightening to keep the US currency strong. Morgan Stanley analysts, led by David S. Adams, said in a report on Friday that they expect the dollar to remain strong through 2027. They cited?favorable rate differentials against peers, robust US economic growth and heightened political risks in Europe. The euro rose 0.14% to $1.1395. The dollar fell 1.01% against the Japanese yen to 157.22. Satsuki Katayama, Japan's Finance minister, said that Trump expressed concern over the yen during a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takayichi this week. Spot gold increased 0.31%, to $4.291.25 per ounce.
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Vujcic, ECB's Vujcic, warns diesel prices could fuel inflation
The European Central Bank's Vice President Boris Vujcic stated on Friday that diesel prices are likely to stay high due to the?shrinking refining capacity around the world, which could?push? up inflation in other parts of Europe. As conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine and elsewhere disrupt supply, diesel prices are at record highs. This adds to the inflation pressures within the fuel-importing Euro zone and complicates the ECB's attempts to control price increases. Vujcic said at an event held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland that "energy prices, especially diesel, will probably stay high for a long time and this?will feed?inflation, because diesel is used in many products." He said that drone attacks on Russian refining facilities had curtailed supply. Meanwhile, the Iran war disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This week, the 'diesel market was again jolted by the US President Donald Trump who voiced his support for a possible ban on US diesel exports. Later, the US administration tried to downplay that possibility.
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EU letter warns about energy price crisis and asks for countries to curb demand.
In a letter to countries that was seen by, the EU's energy chief warned of a looming energy crisis as the fallout from the Iran war has roiled oil and gas markets. In a letter sent to the energy ministers of EU member states, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen stated that "we are facing a pricing crisis linked to a supply crises." Europe relies heavily on imported gas and oil. About 80% of Europe's gas needs are met by foreign suppliers. This leaves the continent highly vulnerable to global energy price increases caused by the Iran War's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is normally used as a transit route of 20% of the world's oil. Europe is not facing a shortage of gas, but prices are soaring. Some countries are struggling to fill their gas storage before winter when home heating demand peaks. Gas Infrastructure Europe data shows that EU gas storage is 70% full, which is 12 percentage points less than the previous year. Jorgensen stated that the EU was better prepared than in winter 2021, when Russia reduced Europe's gas deliveries. This is due to increased LNG import capacity, renewable energy, and a reduction in gas demand. He urged the governments to intensify their preparations for winter. Jorgensen stated, "I invite you to take or continue to take measures that can sustain [gas-storage] injections or to reduce gas and electric demand for as long?necessary." Jorgensen suggested that such measures might include "limiting the temperature in public buildings", preventing "outdoor heating" and turning off unnecessary lighting. A spokesperson for the European Commission did not respond immediately to a comment request.
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Atomic Eagle anticipates renewed interest in Niger financing after uranium transaction
The chief executive of Atomic Eagle said that an agreement reached between the government of Niger, and the uranium developer Atomic Eagle this week will help to improve the access to funding for uranium project in the West African country. The mining ministry announced on Wednesday that Niger had doubled its share in the Madaouela Uranium Project to 40%. This brought an end to the dispute with Australia's Atomic Eagle. According to the World Nuclear Association, in August, Ghana is Africa's biggest uranium producer, with about 336,000 metric tonnes of identified uranium reserves in 2023. According to data from the industry, spot uranium prices are nearly a fifth higher in August than they were a year ago, with an average of $89.68 per pound. Atomic Eagle CEO Phil Hoskins stated on Thursday that the recent support received by Global Atomic was a "fantastic indicator" that international finance would be willing to fund Niger uranium project again. NIGER TIGHTENS CONTROL OVER URANIUM SECTOR The military leaders who took power in 2023 through a coup tightened the state's control over Niger’s uranium industry, revoking all permits held by Orano, GoviEx and Atomic Eagle. This triggered arbitration proceedings, and raised investor concerns about resource nationalism. Hoskins stated that Atomic Eagle will update feasibility studies and?secure environmental permissions? in the next two-year period, with a view to bringing?the Madaouela Project?back to a construction-ready state. The agreement stipulates that Niger can hold 15% of the shares at no cost, and another 25% stake which it will have to fund. The CEO of Atomic Eagle said that the company had agreed to cover Niger's funding obligations for the project up to $40,000,000. Hoskins stated that he did not believe the deal would have any negative impact on the ability to develop the mine, or the economics. He added that the company was open to funding from other investors, such as China, in order for the project's development.
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Official Syrian says that gasoline shipped to Syria is now being transported by road to Iraq
A senior Syrian oil official said that gasoline shipped to Syria is now moving via road to?Iraq. This creates a?two-way energy pathway through a route Baghdad uses to?export petrol since the disruption?to shipping across the Strait of?Hormuz. Iraq began using the Syrian route when the Iran War cut off its main Gulf trade routes, the Strait of Hormuz. Baghdad said that it would develop alternate routes through Syria, even if the traffic through Hormuz returns to normal. Before the establishment of the return leg, fuel oil was transported from?Iraq ports to Syrian ports. This week, the first cargo for Iraq, approximately?32.800 metric tons, on the Marshall Islands flagged tanker Avanti was unloaded at the Baniyas Refinery in?Syria before being loaded into trucks, according to Tareq Shallash. Director of the Refining Directorate of state-owned Syrian Oil?Company. Shallash stated that 77 tanker truck have already left Baniyas and are heading to the Iraqi border. The loading is still ongoing, and further shipments are expected. He said that the gasoline had not been produced in Syria or taken from stock intended for Syrian markets. Shallash, the company's CEO, said that UCC Holding in Qatar was the supplier of this operation and was responsible for its transportation. Saleem Al-Rikabi,?spokesperson for the Iraqi Oil Ministry?, told? When asked to comment on Friday, Iraqi oil ministry?spokesperson Saleem al-Rikabi said: LSEG shipping data shows that another Marshall Islands flagged tanker, Gaita loaded gasoline in the Port of Houston, before?sailing on to Baniyas, for discharge. Reports?in July indicated that Iraqi fuel oil, transported by road from Baniyas to the US and then by sea for a first time? had arrived in the US. Shallash stated that the current "transit contract" was only for gasoline. However, future agreements could expand it to include other petroleum products, crude oils, or other goods.
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Oil prices ease slightly as stocks weather bond volatility
On Friday, global stocks posted their best weekly performance since early August as AI euphoria, and the prospect of a better Middle East energy supply won out over rising bond yields. Oil prices fell as traders considered the possibility of an agreement between the United States and Iran. Sources close to the talks said that negotiators were exploring a phased exit from the war, which would include reopening Strait of Hormuz. The bond market has been able to find some relief from the inflationary fears that were triggered by higher energy costs, thanks to a slight drop in oil prices. Jan von Gerich, Nordea's chief market strategist, said that markets tend to believe rumours about better news from the Middle East. "But there's no quick solution and the weekend is coming, so we might see some caution." Brent crude?remains above $100 per barrel, keeping yields on government bonds near recent highs. Japan's 10-year bonds yielded 3.115% - a level not seen since 1996. After last week's rate hike, inflation fears have boosted bets for multiple Federal Reserve?rate increases. The dollar is now on track to gain for a second consecutive week. The STOXX 600 index for Europe rose 0.6%. U.S. stocks futures were also higher, a good sign for Wall Street's opening later. MSCI's World Stock Index was slightly firmer than usual on Tuesday and is set to have its best performance in a week since the beginning of August. Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, is currently in Washington, D.C. for talks with Donald Trump. However, there have been few signs of progress on the thorny issue of AI, trade, Taiwan, or the Iran War. Under threat RISK ASSETS Investors are demanding ever higher returns on debt, especially long-dated bonds, due to inflation fears and fiscal pressures. Nigel Green of deVere Group Financial Advisors said, "The bond markets around the world are shrieking, and ignoring them could prove to be very costly." "Once the risk-free rate in the largest economy of the world is above 5%, then every asset must justify its value against this." "Equity, property, private debt, emerging market bonds -- nothing is immune." The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate was slightly higher today at around 5,17 percent, after a 20-basis point surge in two days to a new peak of about 5,22 percent. This was the largest two-day increase since April of last year, when Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs shocked markets. The 30-year US bond yields are at 5.47% after a 17-bps surge in the last two days. This is their highest level since 2004. Mortgage rates have risen to 7% due to an increase in US borrowing costs. The yields on euro zone bonds were lower than usual last Friday, but they are still poised to rise for the seventh consecutive week. Nordea's von Gerich said that the bond market has seen "violent moves" and these moves went further than economic conditions justified. He also noted that yields could continue to fall. Investors are preparing for more rate increases from major central banks. Five of the Group of 10 central banks that are most influential have increased rates this month. The rest have either warned of a rate hike or signaled a rise is on the way. Norway raised rates Thursday, and Sweden's Riksbank indicated that it would likely follow suit before the end of the year. The dollar is held steady by expectations of further Fed tightening. The dollar index, while a little lower on Friday was still set for a second consecutive week of gains. This week it has reached its highest level since late July. The dollar lost 0.4% to the yen, falling from a peak of three weeks. Japan's Finance minister Satsukikatayama reported that Trump expressed concern over yen strength during a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi this week.
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WTO's dispute body accepts Russia's panel request regarding EU carbon border levies
The World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement body has agreed to Russia’s request on Friday for a panel to examine the European Union’s carbon border tax. The dispute over the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism began last year. Russia argued that the measure, which imposes carbon charges?on certain imported goods to match the costs of carbon faced by European producers, is discriminatory, and asked the WTO to decide whether it violates the international trade rules. The first request, made in July of this year, was not accepted. However, the second request received on Friday was. CBAM was designed to protect European industries from cheaper imports coming from countries that have weaker climate regulations. It has been criticized by trading partners such as?Brazil and South Africa, who claim that it penalizes developing economies. The EU offers allowances under its flagship policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the Emissions Trading System. This is what Russia claims. The EU has expressed confidence that its measures are compatible and will take part in the proceedings.
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New Greenland agreement likely to see US troops stationed at a desolate Arctic outpost
A small Danish military detachment has quietly watched over a wind-swept 'gravel airstrip' in eastern Greenland for decades. Under a new US defense agreement signed this week, Mestersvig may soon be a major American military base in the Arctic. Mestersvig is 240 km (149 miles), or a distance of 149 miles, from the nearest settlement with a population of 330 people. It lies at the edge if a national park that is larger than Germany combined. The area is completely dark during the winter with temperatures around minus 10 degrees Celsius. It is the most remote, coldest, and extreme place you will ever find. "You have to go to Antarctica for similar conditions," Anders Ibsen said, a former Danish Sirius dog-sled patrol officer, an elite unit which uses?Mestersvig as a resupply. STRATEGIC CHOKEPOINT The GIUK gap is the ocean stretch between Greenland and Britain, known as the GIUK Gap. This is the distance that Russia's Northern Fleet has to cross in order to reach the 'Atlantic. Controlling this chokepoint for NATO is crucial to contain Russian naval power. Justus Hansen, a local member of parliament, welcomed the expansion. He said: "In East Greenland, it is really needed." Washington is allowed to set up a new base in southern Greenland at Mestersvig or Narsarsuaq under the agreement. This could be the first US military expansion in years on this vast semi-autonomous Arctic Island. The facility was constructed in the 1960s, and it includes barracks for 150 soldiers. The US has not made any public announcements about the plans for this base. A HISTORY WITHOUT INTEREST This stretch of coast on the Arctic island became the front line during World War II in a "weather war". Germany and the Allies raced to determine the weather conditions in Greenland, which would later affect the North Atlantic, and Europe. Germans built manned stations in this area, but Danish dog sleds found them and Allied forces removed them. A nearby EU-backed project is aiming to mine molybdenum, a metal critical for aerospace and defense. It's about 20 km (12 miles) from the site. Texas oil company wants to drill for oil in an untested basin south of Mestersvig this winter, but it does not have a permit. The previous owner ARCO spent heavily on seismic work but never drilled in the 1970s. Greenland Energy's CEO, Robert Price, said that any infrastructural improvement in Greenland is welcome. The 1.8 km (1.1 mile) airstrip, which is long enough to land military transport planes, can accumulate up to five meters of snow per year. Ibsen said that when it snows, "you're basically removing the snow 24/7" - a former dog sled officer who spent an entire year in Mestersvig. You have a lot to do even just to stay alive.
Trump and Xi will consider tariff reductions on $30 billion in imports as part of a managed trade effort
This week, the U.S. will likely move closer to a managed trade system for non-sensitive products. Each side may identify $30 billion in goods that they can reduce tariffs on and sell to one another without violating national security redlines. U.S. -Trade Representative Jamieson Greer first proposed the "Board of Trade", a "deliverable agreement" for this week’s high-stakes'summit' between U.S.-President Donald Trump and Chinese-President Xi Jinping. The plan's contours are still sketchy but there is a clear shift in the dialogue: Washington no longer demands that Beijing change its export-driven and state-directed economic model into one more similar to the U.S. market-driven model.
Instead, efforts are focused on quantitative trading targets in nonstrategic areas while maintaining broad tariffs and controls on technologies that affect national security.
GREER'S "ADAPTER" APPROACH
Greer said last week that it's not a case where we can go to China and change their way of managing their economy or the way they run the country. "That's baked into their system. But I think we can find ways to optimize trade between China & the United States in order to achieve more equilibrium."
He compared the mechanism to an "adapter plug" that could help connect two economic systems incompatible. The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with the Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng for three hours on Wednesday in Incheon. They were there to finalize economic proposals that Trump and Xi would discuss in Beijing. The two top 'economic officials have not released any statement about their initial meeting.
Four people who are familiar with Trump's goals said that they expect a framework agreement of $30 billion for every $30 billion in trade barriers to be launched by the new mechanism. It's not clear if Trump and Xi will agree on specific goods or if this will happen in future meetings.
Wendy Cutler is a former USTR Negotiator and the Director of the Asia Society Policy Center, Washington. She said that both sides are "coalescing" around a $30-$50 billion basket of goods in exchange for lower tariffs or other barriers.
"The non-sensitive basket is just a tiny part of our total trade with China." Cutler said Tuesday at a virtual Asia Society Forum that the Board of Trade could start with this and then expand in future.
According to U.S. Census Bureau statistics, the U.S. two-way trade in goods between China and the United States fell by 29%, to $415 billion, from $582 billion, in 2024. The U.S. deficit trade dropped nearly 32%, to $202 billion, in 2025. This was its lowest level in over two decades.
The U.S. Trade Representative and U.S. Treasury declined further comment on the proposed mechanism before the Beijing Summit.
China has not used the Board of Trade name, but said that in March they had "agreed" to "explore the establishment of working mechanism to expand economic and trade cooperation", without providing any further details.
Energy and agriculture are the focus of attention. The U.S. is looking to increase its sales to China. Beijing's tariffs that disrupt these commodities could be one way to do this.
China has a 10% general tariff on all U.S. imported goods, which is the same as the temporary 10% U.S. tariff on Chinese products.
Beijing has imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports of crude oil, coal, liquefied gas and beef in addition to the existing "most-favored nation" tariffs. The U.S. The?U.S. Flat-panel TV sets, Bluetooth headphones, Bluetooth speakers, multifunction printers, bed linens, and flash memory devices are among the products that have been subjected to tariffs of 7.5%. These duties are topped off by the 10% temporary global U.S. duty, which expires in July.
The U.S. could also revive some of the?more 2,200 product-specific exemptions from China tariffs that were granted during Trump's initial term, but have since mostly expired. Trump extended temporary tariff exemptions for a year in November 2025 on solar manufacturing equipment, 164 industrial and medical product categories from printed circuit boards to electric Motors and Blood Pressure Monitoring Equipment. Some of these exclusions could become permanent.
BOARD OF INVESTMENT Both sides will also discuss the less developed concept of a “Board of Investment” to address investment issues. Greer, however, told the Hudson Institute in a recent interview: "I do not think that we are at a point where we can talk about large investment programs." U.S. lawmakers and representatives from the automotive, steel, and tech industries have warned Trump to avoid any deal which opens the door for Chinese investment in U.S. vehicles. They argue that such a deal would erode the core of U.S. Manufacturing. (Reporting and editing by David Lawder.)
(source: Reuters)