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The closure of Hormuz has divided the fortunes between Middle Eastern oil states

A study found that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent?surge of global oil prices has brought financial windfalls for Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Other states, however, who lack alternate shipping routes, have suffered?billions of dollar losses. Iran closed the Strait, a route that accounts for a fifth or more of the global oil and gas flows. This was after U.S. airstrikes and Israeli strikes on Iran in February triggered a wider conflict. Later, it said that vessels with no U.S. and Israeli connections would be allowed to transit the Strait. Some tankers have managed to cross the narrow waterway. However, energy markets are still experiencing unprecedented disruption. Brent crude international rose 60% in March. This is a record increase for a single month. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has threatened to "rain hell" on Tehran until it agrees to a deal that will allow traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday's end.

GEOGRAPHY INDICATES OIL FORTUNES

The Middle East oil producers have experienced a different impact on the rise in energy prices.

Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are able to bypass the Strait via ports and pipelines, despite the fact that Iran controls the Strait.

Oil from Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar, on the other hand, has been trapped because these countries do not have alternative routes to international market.

A senior Iranian official responded to Trump's threat by saying that Iran would not open the Strait in a temporary ceasefire. The Iranian government has refused to accept Trump's earlier ultimatums and said it would not be humiliated. Some analysts claim that the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has in some way strengthened Tehran.

Neil Quilliam is an associate fellow with the think tank Chatham House. He said: "Now that Hormuz was closed, it could be closed again.?And that poses a serious threat to global economic growth." "The genie has escaped the bottle." "The genie is out of the bottle."

According to the analysis of export data for March, Iraq's and Kuwait's notional oil export revenue both fell by around three quarters in comparison with last year. Iran's revenue grew by 37%, and Oman's revenue by 26%. Saudi Arabia's revenues from oil increased by 4.3% while those of the UAE decreased by 2.6% due to the lower volumes.

Estimates are based on export data from Kpler, a ship tracking firm, and JODI, where they are available. They then multiply the average Brent price by these volumes and compare them to a year ago. Brent was chosen for its simplicity, despite the fact that many of these crudes were priced using other benchmarks which are currently trading at significant premiums.

SAUDI ARABIA GETS HIGER ROYALTIES & TAXES

Saudi Arabia will see higher oil prices translate into increased taxes and royalties from the state-owned Aramco. Aramco is owned by both the government and sovereign wealth fund. This is especially good news for Saudi Arabia, which has been spending heavily on projects to diversify incomes away from oil. These had led to a budget gap.

Aramco refused to comment on the 'calculations. Reps from the other countries' oil companies or representatives did not immediately respond when asked for comments.

SAUDI PIPELINE BUILT DURING IRAN IRAQ WAR

The 1,200 kilometre (746 mile) East-West pipeline, which was built during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s to bypass Hormuz, is the largest pipeline of the Kingdom.

The new 7 million barrels a day capacity allows it to connect the eastern oilfields with the Red Sea Port of Yanbu.

Aramco exports approximately 5 million bpd, while using about 2 million for domestic use. Shipping data show that Yanbu loadings were near capacity at 4.6 million barrels per day in the week beginning March 23. This was despite the attacks on the hub.

Kpler data and JODI showed that overall Saudi crude exports in March fell by 26% on an annual basis to 4,39 million bpd. Even so, the higher prices boosted the value of these exports by approximately $558 million compared to a year ago. Riyadh preemptively increased exports to their highest level since April 2023 in February, in the event of an attack by the United States on Iran.

Quilliam said that despite the East-West connection, Saudi Arabia was vulnerable to any further attacks by Iran, its allies, or the Houthis against the energy infrastructure of the country in the west, and ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait into the Red Sea.

IRAQ HAS 'SUFFICIENTED THE LARGEST DROP

The UAE is shielded to a certain extent by the 1.5-1.8 million barrels per day Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline, which bypasses Strait. In March, its estimated oil exports fell more than $174m year-on-year. Fujairah was the target of a series attacks which led to the suspension of loading.

Iraq had the biggest drop in revenue among Gulf producers - 76%, to $1.73billion. Kuwait was next, with a 73% drop to $864 millions. Iraq's SOMO, the state oil marketing company in Iraq, said on April 2, that oil revenues for March were close to estimates of $2 billion.

Both countries will likely suffer greater declines in April, as cargoes which managed to sail during the early days were a major contributor to their March revenues. Last week, a tanker carrying Iraqi crude oil sailed across the Strait after Iran announced that Iraq would not be subject to restrictions.

Adriana Alvarado is the VP for sovereign ratings at Morningstar DBRS. She said Gulf governments have options to'stabilize their finances. They can either use fiscal savings to do so or issue debt on financial markets.

She added that "apart from Bahrain, Gulf states have sufficient fiscal room to handle the shock with government debt moderately below 45% GDP".

The impact on the long term is not clear. Some Western politicians and oil companies have called for more investment in fossil fuels in order to combat supply shocks. However, some analysts believe that renewable energy is the best way to guard against these supply shocks. Last week, France's TotalEnergies announced a $2.2billion joint venture with Masdar, a UAE-based renewable energy company. This is an early indication of how the oil crisis could accelerate the shift away from oil.

(source: Reuters)