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A study warns that biodiversity loss may trigger a wave of debt crises

Financial markets underestimate the economic risks associated with biodiversity loss. This could expose countries to debt crises and higher borrowing costs. The study, ?led ?by economists from the Universities of Sussex, Sheffield and Heriot-Watt, presented what they described as the world's first biodiversity-adjusted sovereign credit ratings model.

The report said that existing rating frameworks do not take into account environmental degradation and leave $83 trillion worth of global assets susceptible to mispricing.

Researchers estimated that a partial collapse in key ecosystems, such as marine fisheries, tropical forests, and wild pollinators, could result in an increase of $162 billion annually for global sovereign debt interest.

Matthew Agarwala, from the University of Sussex, said that financial markets are blind to nature-related risks. As biodiversity loss undermines economies, it becomes more difficult for countries to service debt.

The global economy is supported by ecosystem services such as crop pollination, and the production of seafood. These ecosystems could be disrupted in part, reducing global GDP by around $2 trillion per annum.

Creditworthiness of vulnerable nations could suffer severe consequences. India's sovereign credit rating could be affected by four notches in such a scenario. China's could also drop more than five points on a scale of 20.

Lower credit ratings force governments to pay higher interest rates on debt. This could result in India paying $50 billion and China $70 billion more annually.

Overlooked Risks

The study concluded that sovereign downgrades can have a ripple effect on the domestic economy, impacting businesses, financial institutions, and pension funds.

Pati Klusak, from Edinburgh Business School, said that the findings echo previous financial crises.

She said that the 2008 global financial crises showed what happens when emerging threats are ignored by markets. We risk making the same mistake again if we exclude ecological risks from credit assessment.

According to the research, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Malaysia may also face ratings downgrades ranging from four to six notches.

In 23 countries, with a combined population of 5.5 billion, the biodiversity-related downgrades may push some closer to sovereign default.

The debt servicing costs represent nearly three-quarters the global?annual aid for overseas development and a significant portion of the UN Global Biodiversity Framework?s target of mobilizing $200 billion per year across 196 nations.

The authors called on regulators, central bankers and rating agencies, to incorporate nature-related risk into financial models. They said that the cost of?protecting biodiversity' is much lower than its economic consequences.

Moritz Kraemer is a former sovereign analyst for S&P Global, who was involved in the study. He said that rating agencies were particularly failing. Kraemer stated that by the time these bonds reach maturity in 30 or 50 years, they may be 3-4 notch lower. "That's a problem."

(source: Reuters)