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ASML's MORNING BID EUROPE - Big Blue's bad Day raises the bar
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The AI rally is experiencing some speed wobbles as Europe's?valuable? company and top supplier of chip making equipment?reports Wednesday. ASML is the only manufacturer of the lithography machines that cost $300 million and are used to create the circuitry for cutting-edge chips. LSEG estimates show that it is expected to report an 8.8% increase in the second-quarter's net profit of 2.61 billion euro ($2.99 billion), on a revenue growth of 14% at 8.8 billion euro. Analysts also expect the company's revenue forecast for the full year to increase from 36 billion to $40 billion euros. IBM is the latest example of how AI is "upending business models" in software and computing, and how the markets can be fickle when it comes to picking winners and losers during the boom. IBM SHEDS? A QUARTER of its Value "Big Blue" claimed that it failed to keep up with the shift in corporate spending from software towards data-centre infrastructure. The market expected $3.02 for its adjusted earnings per share forecast, but IBM's projection of $2.93 was based on a revenue increase of only 1%. IBM shares fell by 25% as a result. South Korea's volatile KOSPI jumped 8% in Asia. A surprise slowdown in U.S. Inflation cooled bets on rate hikes and gave investors a good reason to smile. Brent crude futures remained above $85 per barrel but fell short of new peaks, as investors wait to see how long oil tankers will be unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Data revealed that?China’s economic growth slowed down to 4.3% in first half of the year, which was below expectations. There was still little reaction because the theme of "export strength and domestic weakening" is well-worn and because investors are hoping the slowdown will lead to a fiscal stimulus. Bank of Canada expected to keep interest rates the same on Wednesday. Markets could be affected by key developments on Wednesday * Earnings: ASML, BNY, Blackrock, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, United Airlines * Economics: Eurozone industrial production, U.S. PPI * Bank of Canada holds rates at $1 = 0.8744 Euros (By Tom Westbrook, edited by Christopher Cushing).
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As hostilities in the Middle East worsen, oil prices are rising.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday after?President Donald Trump reimposed his naval blockade against all Iranian ports and Tehran launched attacks on U.S. Infrastructure in the region. Brent futures rose?99 cents or 1.2% to $85.72 per barrel at 0400 GMT. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 64 cents or 0.8% to $79.98 per barrel. Tuesday, oil prices rose 2% to a new one-month high as attacks intensified a supply disruption along the Strait of Hormuz. This is where a fifth of all the world's liquefied gas and oil passed before the U.S./Israeli war on Iran. "While the physical market for oil is adequately supplied, a further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, or any additional'sanctions' on Iranian exports, could quickly tighten the market sentiment, and add more risk premiums," stated Priyanka?Sachdeva, a senior market?analyst with Phillip Nova. The U.S. military announced that early on Wednesday the U.S. began a new round of strikes to "continue degrading Iranian capability used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz." Tehran has closed the Strait again after hostilities erupted between Iran and the U.S. last week. This has weakened a fragile ceasefire reached in June following several months of fighting. Trump said in a Fox News interview that aired on "Special Report With Bret Baier" Tuesday night, "I'll leave the energy targets until last but we'll ultimately hit energy targets". Iran's Army said that early on Wednesday it had launched drone strikes against U.S. positions at Jordan's Azraq Base. Pentagon has not yet responded to the report. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that they had targeted weapons and storage in Bahrain? and Kuwait. Could not verify the reports immediately. The recent flare-up has raised doubts about whether a memorandum signed last month will lead to an end to the war that has enveloped Iran's neighbours. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that Brent prices could remain between $75 and $80 per barrel if diplomatic efforts were made to reopen the Strait. "For now, the risk premium is still there, but it's no one-way bet, given that both sides have incentives to find a diplomatic resolution." Helen Clark reported from Perth, and Jeslyn Lerh from Singapore. Editing was done by Lincoln Feast and Thomas Derpinghaus.
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Malaysia: Higher energy prices will support subsidies
Malaysia announced on Wednesday that higher global energy prices have boosted its petroleum revenue enough to cover part of the rising costs for 'fuel subsidies. This has eased pressure on the government's finances. The government said that it may spend as much as 40 billion ringgits ($9.83 billion), far more than the 15 billion ringgits initially allocated?in the budget for 2026, on fuel subsidies in 2019. This is due to higher energy prices related to the Middle East conflict. * Each $1 change in crude oil prices is estimated to affect federal petroleum revenues by?about 300 million ringgit, not including the dividends paid to Petronas. Liew Chin-Tong, Deputy Minister of Finance, told the parliament. This?increased revenue can offset some of this additional pressure on fuel subsidy spending. "The government monitors'revenue -collection regularly to ensure that it can meet federal operating expenses,"?Liew added. Liew stated that if necessary, a review of the fiscal targets for 2026 will be announced as part of 'the federal budget next year', which is due to be presented to parliament in October.
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Asian stocks benefit from the drop in US inflation rate
Stock markets in Asia rallied Wednesday, after a surprising slowdown in U.S. Inflation lowered expectations for interest rate increases. Meanwhile, oil prices took a break as the U.S. canceled a plan to levy shipping across the Strait of Hormuz. South Korea's volatile KOSPI Index surged by 7% before the next test of the AI rally. Earnings are due from ASML, Europe's largest company and world's leading supplier of equipment to make AI chips. The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 1%, while the MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose by 2.4%. IBM's stock price dropped by 25% overnight after its?revenue estimate missed analyst expectations. This shows how stretched the rally for AI-related stocks is. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and U.S. Futures all rose on Tuesday, thanks to the stellar profit made by Wall Street banks. The U.S. Dollar was lower in terms of currencies, except against the stubbornly low yen. Short-term bonds also rallied. Two-year Treasury yields fell 11 basis points, to 4.19%, from a 17-month high near 4.3% on Tuesday. In the U.S., the headline consumer price index fell by 0.4% in June. This was its first drop since COVID-19. Core inflation, however, rose to 2.6% annually, versus expectations of 2.8%. In a note to clients, J.P. Morgan analysts stated that "for market bulls, this is even better than Goldilocks would have imagined." "Inflation is lower when earnings are growing positively. This should ease any concerns about a rate hike in July and could also calm fears for September. This allows the market to rise and broaden at the same time. The market price for the likelihood of an interest rate increase in July has been halved, to 16%. CHINA GROWTH MIS Official data released on Wednesday showed that China's economic growth had slowed to just 4.3% for the second quarter. This was below analysts' expectations due to weaker domestic demand, the oil shock caused by the war in the Middle East, and a lack of exports. Investors have a positive outlook on the Chinese retail sales rebounding in June, a relatively strong nominal GDP and the hope that authorities will respond. Woei Chen, economist at UOB, said: "I do not think they will be concerned?enough to?announce any big'stimulus. But it will be targeted. They are aware that the growth is only in the tech areas, whereas the overall economy continues to underperform." The yuan of China traded at an all-time high of 6.7635 per dollar. The euro was stable at $1.14, and the Australian Dollar held on to its 0.8% gain. Brent crude futures remained at $85.80 per barrel after gaining almost 13% on the back of a flare-up in Middle East conflict. U.S. president Donald Trump reimposed on Tuesday a naval blockade against Iranian ports and threatened to attack power plants and bridges if Iran did not resume negotiations with the United States in order to end their conflict. He also scrapped his plan for a 20 percent fee on shipping through Hormuz. BNY, Morgan Stanley and Johnson & Johnson report their earnings in the U.S. before the morning bell, and United Airlines reports after the market close. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Tom Westbrook)
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Copper prices rise as US inflation falls, boosting demand
Copper prices rose on Wednesday as lower than expected U.S. inflation supported demand and lifted sentiment, even though the Middle East crisis continued to weigh. The benchmark three-month 'copper contract on the London Metal Exchange? was up 0.05% to $13,650 per metric ton at 0300 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract was up 0.64% at 104,770 Yuan ($15480.89) per ton. Data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. consumer prices slowed down more than anticipated in June. This eased fears about higher interest rates and a possible slowdown of economic activity. Daniel Hynes said in a ANZ note that the fading?prospects for a rate increase boosted sentiment throughout the base metals industry. The U.S. Dollar slipped, boosting prices of commodities denominated in the greenback by making them more affordable for buyers who use other currencies. The market digested?economic data coming from China, the world's largest consumer. The GDP growth of the country slowed to a low not seen in 3.5 years, and missed forecasts. Yangshan Copper Premium The, which tracks the buying interest in China remained strong. It was trading at $90 per ton, its highest level since May 2025. Fighting continued between the U.S.A. and Iran. This undermined hopes for peace negotiations and affected the macroeconomic outlook. Aluminum edged up on LME, adding?0.33%. On SHFE it remained unchanged. Prices have been supported by a disruption in supply from the Middle East, which represents around 9% global capacity for aluminium smelting, as well as dwindling inventories. The consumers are also seeking out alternative sources of supply and purchasing larger shipments from China, who exported an unprecedented volume of unwrought aluminum and its products last month. Nickel rose 0.15%, tin 0.24% and zinc 0.35%. Zinc gained 0.53% on SHFE. Lead dropped 1.8%. Nickel slipped 0.29%. Tin rose 1.68%.
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Asian stocks benefit from the drop in US inflation rate
The Asian markets rose on Wednesday, after a surprise drop in U.S. consumer inflation reduced market expectations of interest rate increases. Oil prices also dipped as the U.S. canceled a plan to tax shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Investors also cheered the stellar earnings of Wall Street banks, though a 25% decline in IBM's stock price after the company missed its revenue forecast showed just how stretched the market has become. In early trading, South Korea's chipmaker heavy KOSPI soared 6% and Japan's Nikkei gained 0.4%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose by 1.7%. The U.S. Dollar fell in?currencies except for the stubbornly low yen. Short-end bonds rose, bringing two-year Treasury yields down to 4.19%, from a 17-month high near 4.3%. Annualised core inflation was 2.6%, compared to expectations of?2.8%. In a note to clients, J.P. Morgan analysts said: "For bulls on the market this is better than Goldilocks ever could have imagined." "Inflation is lower with positive earnings growth. This should ease any concerns about a rate hike in July and could also calm fears for September. This allows the market to rise and broaden at the same time. The market price for a U.S. rate hike in July has been halved from 36% to 16%. The Australian dollar, which was testing $0.70, held on to its 0.8% gain. Brent crude futures remained at $85.50 per barrel after gaining more than 12% in the past week due to a flare up of fighting in the Middle East. U.S. president Donald Trump reimposed on Tuesday a naval blocade of Iranian ports and threatened to strike power plants and bridges unless Iran resumes their negotiations to end the conflict. However, he canceled a plan to impose a 20% surcharge on shipping through Hormuz. Overnight, the Nasdaq rose 0.9% while the S&P 500 gained 0.4%. U.S. Futures were slightly higher Wednesday. ASML's earnings, Europe's most valuable company and data on Chinese industrial production, retail sales, and gross domestic product will be the focus of 'Asian trade' before ASML's earnings, which is the world's largest supplier of AI chips. BNY, Johnson & Johnson, and Blackrock will report their earnings in the U.S. before the morning bell, and United Airlines, after the market close. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Tom Westbrook)
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Oil prices rise after US-Iran hostilities flare up again with attacks on energy targets
Oil prices rose Wednesday after President Donald Trump reimposed his?naval ban on all Iranian ports, and Iran launched a retaliatory strike on U.S. facilities in the region. Brent closed at its highest level since 'June 12' and West Texas Intermediate?at its best since june 15 for the second consecutive session. Both prices rose on Wednesday morning trade. Brent climbed $1.46 or 1.72% to $86.19 per barrel at 0029 GMT, while WTI rose $1.11 or 1.4% to $80.40. Oil prices rose 2% on Tuesday to an all-time high, as the supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz - where one-fifth of world oil and LNG transited before the start of the war - were intensified. The U.S. began a new round of strikes early on Wednesday to "continue degrading Iranian capability used to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz", the U.S. Military said. Tehran claims it has 'closed the Strait again after hostilities between Iran & the U.S. re-ignited last week, fraying a fragile?truce already reached in June following several months of fighting. Trump said in an interview with Fox News that aired on "Special Report With Bret Baier" Tuesday night, "I'll leave the energy targets until last but we'll ultimately hit energy targets". Early on Wednesday, the Iranian army announced that drones had been used to attack U.S. positions in Jordan's Azraq base. Pentagon has not yet responded to the report. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that they had targeted weapons and storage in Bahrain and Kuwait. ? The reports could not be verified immediately. The recent flare-up has raised doubts about whether a memorandum signed last month will lead to an end to the war that has engulfed Iran’s neighbors. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that Brent prices may remain at $75-$80 per barrel if diplomatic measures are successful in reopening the Strait. "For now, there is still a risk premium, but this is not a one way bet, as both sides are motivated to find a diplomatic resolution." (Reporting and editing by Helen Clark)
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Scientists study the glacier melting risk in Greenland
This week, an international team of 80 scientists and crew will embark on the RSS David Attenborough to sail for Greenland in order to determine whether the melting glaciers on the island could affect the climate and currents in the Atlantic Ocean. The mission, which will last five to six weeks, leaves Britain, after Western Europe and Britain experienced their warmest month of June on record. This caused power outages, closed schools, and increased deaths. Kelly Hogan, marine geophysicist with the British Antarctic Survey, which is leading this mission, said in an interview aboard the vessel that the heatwaves in Europe and the UK in recent months had really made it clear how difficult it was for us to adjust to even small changes in climate. The expedition is a part of a PS20million project called GIANT – Greenland Ice Sheet to AtlaNtic Tipping Points - that aims to better understand the melting and breaking down of glaciers into the ocean, and their impact. Scientists worry that the melting of freshwater may disrupt a rotating ocean current system which regulates Europe's climate. This could lead to extreme weather conditions and higher sea levels. Matt Neill is a ship captain who has made several trips to Antarctica, including his first as a cadet in 2011. He says he's seen first-hand the effects of climate change. "Lots are of glaciers all?receding extremely quickly and more than you think." He said that it is more important now than ever to collect data and improve models during these dynamic times. BOATY MBOATFACE Officially, the ship was named after veteran naturalist Attenborough. But to many Britons, it will forever be "Boaty McBoatface" after this suggestion won a 2016 public poll. Named instead for a high-tech submersible that will be on the vessel, it will dive to 1500 meters below the glacier mixture - a mix of sea ice & snow that forms where the glacier meets the sea. It will map its geometry and how it affects the glacier. Sam Smith, an operations engineer with the National Oceanography Centre said that it would be collecting data never before collected. The data collected will be used to create next-generation climate model and a system of early warning for glacier failure.
How Trump's ceasefires have failed to end Middle East violence
Residents in Gaza, Lebanon's south, northern Israel, and Kuwait have all been under fire in the past week, despite ceasefires that were supposedly in place in these regions, arranged by the United States. Israeli airstrikes struck Gaza and Lebanon. Israeli forces are still "actively" deployed in both locations. Hezbollah launched rockets at northern Israel and Iranians attacked Kuwait's airport.
The violence has continued. The continued violence prompted?U.S.
The three?truces that his administration negotiated were intended to?stop the war. While the major combat has been greatly reduced, munitions still fall and people still die.
Here's how the ceasefires and fighting are unfolding:
WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE CEASEFIRE? On October 10, 2025 the United States brokered an agreement between Israel and Hamas that ended major warfare.
The ceasefire agreement included a halt in all fighting, Hamas freeing all of its remaining hostages, Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners, an Israeli withdrawal phased, increased aid, and the opening a border crossing to Egypt. Trump's plan for a ceasefire included agreements on Hamas disarmament, a new Gaza Government without the group’s involvement, reconstruction in Gaza, and a complete Israeli pullout.
Both sides disagree on how much aid Israel allowed to enter, despite the fact that all hostages have been released. Hamas is refusing to disarm. Israel claims that no significant reconstruction has taken place and that it wants to expand its control in Gaza.
Israeli air strikes in Gaza have continued. Since the ceasefire, more than 900 Palestinians have been killed including nine on Friday. Four Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza by sporadic Palestinian militant attacks.
Why is there still violence in Lebanon?
A ceasefire was only partially implemented in 2024 after Israel and Lebanon's Iran backed Hezbollah fought. Both sides accused the other of violating it.
After the war against Iran broke out, open warfare resumed in March. Hezbollah fired into Israel while Israeli forces seized large areas of southern Lebanon. They also pounded other areas with airstrikes. Trump announced on April 16, a 10-day ceasefire between the Israeli and Lebanese government representatives. Israel mostly avoided striking Beirut, despite intense fighting in the south.
According to the Lebanese government, hundreds of civilians have been killed in Israeli attacks since?April 16. The total death toll is now more than 3,500, and this includes both combatants and civilians. Israel claims that 26 soldiers and 4 civilians were killed by Hezbollah in attacks since March. Iran wants to include a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon as part of a deal to end the war it has with Israel and the United States, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump announced on Wednesday that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to implement an entirely new ceasefire contingent upon Hezbollah's departure from the southern areas. The group rejected this plan, and the fighting continues.
Will the US and Iran cement their ceasefire?
On February 28, Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran to destroy its ballistic missile and nuclear programs. Both countries expressed hope that the theocratic regime would be overthrown.
This came after a 12-day conflict last year, in which Israel and the United States struck a number of Iran's military leaders and nuclear facilities.
The United States announced a ceasefire with Iran in early April, and talks were to follow on a lasting end to hostilities, the reopening of Hormuz or the end of a?U.S.-led blockade. Early April, the United States announced that it would cease hostilities with Iran. Talks were to follow, including a permanent end to hostilities and the reopening or Hormuz. The United States announced a ceasefire with Iran in early April, and talks would follow on a lasting end to hostilities,?the reopening of Hormuz, the ending of a?U.S.
There has not been a full agreement yet despite the repeated rounds of indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan. Negotiations on the nuclear issue would be put off to a later date if a deal is reached.
Iran has also targeted Gulf States including Kuwait in this week's exchange of fire.
Why haven't the ceasefires been effective?
The first phase of all three agreements has failed to produce a lasting ceasefire.
The combatants in each case refused to make the painful concessions necessary to progress beyond the first phase transitional ceasefires. Sometimes, they have used'military action' to achieve goals that they had set aside when the ceasefires were agreed upon or to test boundaries of agreements.
Urban Coningham is a research fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute. He said that when there is no movement or political horizon it makes it difficult to maintain a ceasefire, as the parties have no incentive to keep it up if the ceasefire doesn't lead to any real changes.
He said that the diminishing influence and assertiveness by regional powers, as well as the United Nations, have made it more difficult to maintain long-term agreements. (Compiled by Angus McDowall, edited by Cynthia Osterman).
(source: Reuters)