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Snakes and ladders in a potential Ukrainian peace deal

What are the possible contours of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine?

SECURITY GUARANTEE

Ukraine, which has been subjected to a full scale invasion in 2022, and witnessed Russia annex Crimea, needs security guarantees from major powers, primarily the United States.

The Budapest Memorandum of 1994, in which the U.S., Russia and Britain agreed to refrain from using force against Ukraine and respect Ukrainian sovereignty was not enough for the Ukrainian government. The powers agreed to take the matter to the United Nations Security Council in the event of an attack on Ukraine.

Sources involved in the talks say that the problem is that a security guarantee with teeth could lock the West into an eventual future war against Russia, and a security agreement without teeth could leave Ukraine vulnerable.

Diplomats, in draft proposals of a possible settlement for peace that we saw, spoke about a "robust guarantee of security", which could include an agreement similar to Article 5. Article 5 of NATO's treaty binds allies together to defend one another in the event of an invasion, even though Ukraine isn't a member.

According to a draft of the failed 2022 agreement, Ukraine had agreed to permanent neutrality as part of a deal with the five permanent members on the U.N. Security Council - Britain, China France, Russia, the United States and other nations such as Belarus, Canada Germany Israel, Poland, and Turkey.

Officials in Kyiv, however, say that they will not accept neutrality for Ukraine.

NATO AND NEUTRALITY

Russia has said repeatedly that a possible NATO membership by Kyiv is a war cause and must be rejected. Ukraine should remain neutral, with no foreign bases. Zelenskiy said that it was not up to Moscow to decide Ukraine’s alliances.

NATO leaders in Bucharest agreed to admit Ukraine and Georgia as members one day at the Bucharest Summit of 2008. In 2019, Ukraine amended its constitution to commit to full membership in NATO and the European Union.

U.S. ambassador General Keith Kellogg said that NATO membership for Ukraine was "off the table". Donald Trump said that the U.S.'s past support of Ukraine's NATO membership was a major cause of war.

Ukraine and Russia discussed neutrality in 2022. According to a draft of an agreement, Russia wants limits placed on the Ukrainian military. Ukraine is opposed to any restrictions on the size or capabilities of its military.

Russia has stated that it does not object to Ukraine's EU membership bid, although some members of the EU could oppose Kyiv’s bid.

Territorial

Moscow claims to control about a fifth (or 5%) of Ukraine, and that the territory now belongs to Russia. This is a position that most countries don't accept.

In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea. According to Russian estimates, Russian forces control nearly all of Luhansk and more than 70% Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russia controls a small part of Kharkiv.

Putin's most detailed peace proposals, which he outlined in June of 2024, stated that Ukraine would be required to withdraw from all these regions, including those not currently under Russian rule.

According to a draft plan of peace drafted by the Trump Administration, the U.S. will de jure recognize Russian control over Crimea and de facto acknowledge Russian control over Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and other parts.

Ukraine would gain territory in Kharkiv Region, and the U.S. will control and administrate Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant which is currently under Russian control.

Kyiv has said that legally recognising Russian sovereignty over occupied territories is out of question, and would be a violation of Ukraine's Constitution. However, territorial issues could be discussed in talks after a ceasefire.

Steve Witkoff, a Trump envoy, told Breitbart last week that the main issues are the regions and the nuclear plant. It's also about how the Ukrainians can use the Dnieper River to reach the ocean.

Sanctions

Russia is in favor of Western sanctions being lifted, but is skeptical that this will happen soon. Even if US sanctions were lifted, EU sanctions and other Western sanctions such as those imposed in Australia, Britain and Canada could continue for many years. Ukraine wants sanctions to stay in place.

The U.S. government has been reported to be studying ways to ease sanctions against Russia's energy industry as part of a broader plan that would allow Washington to provide swift relief in the event Moscow agreed to end the Ukraine conflict.

OIL AND GAS

Trump suggested that Putin, the leader of the second largest oil exporter in the world, may be more inclined towards a resolution to the Ukraine War following the recent drop in oil price, although the Kremlin stated that national interests always trump oil pricing.

Some diplomats speculate that the U.S. and Russia are looking for lower oil prices in a larger grand bargain that includes issues ranging from the Middle East to Ukraine.

In the beginning of this month, it was reported that Washington and Moscow officials had held talks about how Washington could help revive Russian gas exports to Europe.

CEASEFIRE

Before talks can begin, European powers and Ukraine want Russia to agree to a truce. But Moscow insists that a ceasefire won't work until verification issues have been resolved. Kyiv claims that Moscow is trying to buy time.

RECONSTRUCTION UKRAINE

European powers are looking to utilize some of the Russian assets that have been frozen in the West, to assist Kyiv. Russia rejects this.

Reports from February indicate that Russia may agree to use $300 billion in sovereign assets that are frozen in Europe as part of the reconstruction of Ukraine, but that it will insist on spending a portion of that money in the one-fifth that is controlled by Moscow's forces.

Ukraine wants to use all $300 billion in assets seized for post-war reconstruction. (Reporting and editing by Gareth Jones, Guy Faulconbridge)

(source: Reuters)