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Copper demand is soaring due to the expansion of global power grids
The copper demand is growing faster than expected, due to the billions of dollars invested in modernising and expanding power grids worldwide for the digital and renewable energy revolutions which require vast amounts of electricity. A lack of investment into new mines is limiting the supply of major producers, including Chile and Democratic Republic of Congo, which will lead to a long period of high prices. Analysts predict that copper prices will reach record levels above $12,000 per ton by the end of this decade. This is a 23% increase from the current level of $9,700 per ton. Copper's superior durability, conductivity and versatility have made it difficult to replace. According to the International Energy Agency, grid investment will reach $400 billion this coming year after reaching a record of $390 billion by 2024. Copper is often an undervalued component of grid infrastructure. Many people understand the need for grid expansion, but underestimate the amount of copper that will be required. Michael Finch is the head of strategic initiatives of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a consultancy. He pointed out the investment needed especially in the U.S.A., UK, and China. BMI's latest figures reveal that the global demand for copper to upgrade power generation and transmission systems will increase to 14.87 millions metric tons in 2030, up from 12.52million tons this year. DATA CENTRES ELECTRIC VEHICLES DRIVE GRID ON DEMAND Michael Widmer, an analyst at Bank of America, predicts that global copper demand will increase by 10% from this year to 30,32 million tons in 2030. Widmer predicts that the global copper market will be in deficit of 1.84 million tonnes by 2030. In regions where artificial intelligence and machine-learning data centres are rapidly expanding, the need for resilient grids becomes even more acute. Peter Charland, Global Information and Communications Technology Lead at AECOM (a global infrastructure consultancy company), said that "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning data centres require bigger, better and faster computing." This means more power. CRU, a consultancy, said it expected copper demand in data centres to increase from 78,000 tonnes in 2020 to 260,000 tonnes this year and exceed 650,000 tons by 2030. "The electricity grid infrastructure is a bottleneck, and it's not just for data centres." This includes onshore and off-shore wind power, solar, and electric vehicles," Egest Balla said, wire and cable analyst at CRU. The copper content of electric vehicles is also significantly higher than that of traditional internal combustion engines. BMI predicts that the demand for copper in electric vehicles will increase to 2.2 millions tons by 2030. This is up from just 204,00 tons in 2020. Maria Cristina Bifulco is the chief investor relations officer and sustainability officer of Italian cable manufacturer Prysmian. Prysmian is the largest copper buyer in the world. Prysmian purchases 2%-3% global refined copper production. ALUMINIUM, FIBRE OPTIC CABLING CONSIDERED The looming shortages of copper and the record-high prices have led to a wave innovation, including recycling and substitution in industries like construction and manufacturing. Copper costs make up a significant portion of production costs. Aluminium has long been regarded as a cheaper option, but at a cost of about a third that of copper, it has been abandoned in the wiring of data centres. Charland, from AECOM, said that there was a time when copper wasn't meeting the demand. Some people coated aluminum cables with copper. "That was short-lived due to the performance issues." Recycling can help achieve sustainability goals as it uses 65% less energy to refine or produce secondary copper than primary production. Analysts predict that scrap copper will increase to 11 million tonnes in 2030, up from 10 million tons currently. Fibre optic cables have already replaced copper in the data transmission industry. They are more efficient and offer a higher bandwidth. Matt Miller, Global Networks Lead at AECOM said: "It is cheaper to make glass than to mine copper." "Silicon can be found in abundance on the beach. You can grab as much of it as you like." Analysts say that it is unlikely that the copper supply shortage will be resolved anytime soon. This is especially true for structural projects on which governments base their economic growth plans. "You can do green energy, but without a grid to support it, you will have a problem." CRU's Balla said.
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WGC reports that India's gold consumption will hit a 5-year low due to record prices affecting jewellery sales.
The World Gold Council announced on Thursday that India's gold demand in 2025 will be at a five-year-low, due to record high prices which are affecting jewellery purchases and overshadowing the slight increase in investment demand. Sachin Jain is the CEO of WGC India operations. He said that the demand for gold in the second largest consumer of precious metals could be between 600 and 700 tons by 2025. This would be the lowest level since 2020 and down from the 802,8 tons of last year. He said that if the price stabilizes, the demand could rise to 700 tons. However, a 10%-15% increase in the price due to geopolitical reasons may push it lower. Gold prices in India, which reached a record of 101,078 rupies per 10 grams in the month of June, are up 28% in 2025 after a 21% increase in 2024. The WGC reported that India's gold demand in the April to June quarter was down 10% on a year earlier, falling 17% from the previous quarter. However, investment demand increased 7%. Jain stated that the demand for September is expected to be lower compared to last year, when New Delhi reduced import duties, which boosted purchases. He said that the precious metal outperformed other asset classes and attracted investors who preferred both gold ETFs as well as physical gold. He said that "Gold ETFs are at an important growth juncture in India, and they are becoming more popular and prominent as India becomes increasingly digitised." Data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India earlier this month showed that gold ETFs in India experienced a tenfold increase in inflows month-on month to 20,81 billion rupees (US$237.5 million). This was a five-month record. $1 = 87.6390 Indian Rupees (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala).
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State media reports that the death toll in China's northern region has risen following extreme rainfall
Eight people have died in extreme weather conditions near Beijing. Another 18 are still missing. Heavy rains flooded the hills of the region last week. State-run Xinhua late Wednesday reported citing local officials that the deaths took place in villages in the Xinglong region of Chengde, Hebei Province, without specifying how or when the people died. Xinhua reported that the search for missing persons is ongoing. Chengde, a mountainous town in China's Qing Dynasty, was a popular summer resort for Qing Emperors. Beijing and its surrounding areas have been ravaged by extreme rains since last Wednesday. In some places, a full year's rain fell in a matter of days. At least 30 people were killed in the suburbs of Beijing. Twenty-eight of these deaths were in the hilly Miyun District. The Chengde deaths occurred in villages that border Miyun, and are about 25 km (16 mile) from the Miyun Reservoir, which is the largest reservoir in China's northern region. During this period of heavy rains, the reservoir experienced record inflow and outflow as well as a high water level. The reservoir reached a new record of 3,63 billion cubic meters in its capacity on Sunday. Eight villages are located on higher ground in a valley upstream from the Miyun Reservoir. A landslide occurred in another village north of the reservoir on Monday, killing eight people and leaving four others missing. Meteorologists have linked extreme rainfall and severe floods to climate change. Chinese officials attribute a slowdown of factory activity to the heavy rains and flooding. (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates; Xiuhao chen, Ryan Woo)
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ArcelorMittal reduces its steel demand forecasts following a slight Q2 beating
ArcelorMittal reported a quarterly core profit that was slightly higher than the market's expectations, but it lowered its steel demand forecasts due to U.S. president Donald Trump's new tariffs. In March, the Trump administration implemented its first trade measure with a tariff of 25% on steel and aluminum imports. In June, it doubled that rate to 50%. The Luxembourg-based firm's earnings before taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), which are provided by the company, were $1.86bn in the second quarter. This was just slightly above the analysts' consensus estimate, $1.85bn. It said that the quarterly results were aided by a price-cost positive effect in Europe where increased selling prices exceeded increases in input costs, as well as a greater contribution from India. ArcelorMittal, however, cut its forecast for the global steel demand outside China. The company cited weaker U.S. consumer spending and trade disruptions. The company expects global steel demand to grow by 1.5% to 2,5% this year, excluding China. China is the top consumer and producer in the world. This compares to the February forecast of 2.5% - 3.5%. ArcelorMittal stated that tariff concerns and a subdued economy had dampened the demand in the U.S. where apparent steel consumption is expected to remain unchanged or even decline by as much as 2% in 2025. It had forecast growth between 1% and 3%. The company said that the European steel demand is holding up better than other regions. However, it has lowered its forecast for 2025 apparent growth in steel consumption to a range between -0.5% to +1.5% from an earlier range of 0% - 2%. It said that the revision was due to limited tariff effects and lower interest rates. Reporting by Anna Peverieri, Gdansk; editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak
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Austria's OMV 2nd-quarter results exceed forecasts, as the chemicals division soars
The second quarter results of Austrian oil company OMV were in line with expectations, thanks to higher results from the chemicals division. Lower contributions from its fuels and energy divisions were offset by lower results for the energy division. Vienna-based company posted a clean operational result of 1,03 billion euros ($1.18billion) for the second quarterly, which was in line with expectations. The consensus provided by the firm had expected 1.02billion euros. Clean operating results are based on current costs of supply and exclude one-off items, short-term gains or losses and energy inventory holdings. The Borealis Group's contribution to the company's second-quarter clean operating profit of 200 million euros was cited as the reason for this 76% increase. OMV's chemical division is a key growth driver for the company, as it transitions away from fossil fuels. It produces chemicals that are used in car parts, gas and water pipes and medical syringes. ($1 = $0.8747 euros) Reporting by Tristan Veyet, Gdansk. Editing by Christopher Cushing & Mrigank Dhaniwala
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Heidelberg Materials exceeds expectations in the second quarter with cost control
Heidelberg Materials, the second largest cement manufacturer in the world, announced a second-quarter operating income that was better than expected on Thursday. The company cited price adjustments and strict management of costs. The company's poll predicted that the group's RCO would be 1.03 billion euro, but it actually rose to 1.05 billion. Dominik von Achten, CEO of Dominik von Achten, said that our cost-management system has been particularly effective during the second quarter. The company has also confirmed that its full-year RCO forecast is between 3,25 billion and 3,55 billion euros. This is based on the assumption that the demand for construction will stabilise. The CEO said that despite the fact that demand is volatile in certain regions, it is stabilising in core markets. Construction industry sales have been declining in recent years due to high energy and inflation prices. The company responded by saying that it would continue to adhere to strict cost management and make price adjustments in order to meet its 2025 target. Von Achten said, "Our ongoing Transformation Accelerator program is progressing exactly as planned and with additional increases in savings has helped us improve our earnings again." The exchange rate is $1 = 0.8751 euro. (Written by Miranda Murray and edited by Rachel More, Subhranshu Sahu).
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China's iron ore exports continue to rise as storm clouds gather, Russell
Iron ore is the best performing commodity this year, with a price of over $100 per metric ton. This is despite signs that China's steel industry has been slowing down. The Singapore Exchange's most traded iron ore contract ended Wednesday at $101.71 per ton, down from $102.74 at its previous close. The rolling front-month contracts have traded within a narrow range this year. A high of $107.81 per ton was reached on February 12, and a low $93.35 was achieved on July 1. This stability is due to the fact that China has been a major buyer of seaborne products, accounting for 75%. Customs data shows that China imported 592.2 millions tons of goods in the first six months of this year. This is a 3% decrease from the same period last year. The June arrivals reached 105.95 millions tons, which is the highest level since December of last year. Kpler, a commodity analyst, estimates 101.32 millions tons for China's imports in July. Iron ore imports from China have been relatively resilient, and this has helped to keep prices around $100 so far in the year. The market will be watching to see if they can maintain that level, given the signals received from other iron ore and metal sectors. China, which produced just over half the world's total steel production, saw its output fall 9.2% from the same period in 2024 to 83.2 million tons. The first half of 2025 saw a 3% decline in production, to 514.83 millions tons. The outlook for the second part of the year also isn't very rosy, especially if the annual steel production stays around the informal goal of 1 billion tonnes, as it has been for the last five years. China's output of steel is unlikely to grow in the second half this year compared to the first. It may even decline, particularly if exports fall as importers impose higher duties on Chinese products. EXPORTS SLIPPERY Exports of steel product fell 8.5% in June compared to May. However, a good start to the year saw shipments rise 9.2% to 58.15 millions tons. The second half of the year is likely to see a decline in China's exports, which will put further pressure on this sector. Iron ore is becoming increasingly unattractive as China struggles to stabilize its economy and manufacturers are faced with uncertainty due to U.S. Tariffs and fierce domestic competition. SteelHome consultants SteelHome monitor port stockpiles to see if there is any room for iron ore inventory to grow. The week ending July 25 saw a drop of 131.05 millions tons compared to 151.8 million the previous week. Kpler data shows that iron ore imports outside China are also weak. They dropped to 136.56 millions tons in July, their lowest level since April. Kpler predicts that Europe's seaborne imports of iron ore will fall to 6,53 million tonnes in July, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. Japan is the second largest iron ore buyer in the world. Arrivals are expected to reach a record high of 7,73 million tons for July, a three-month-high. According to Kpler, South Korea is expected to import 4,71 million tons of soybeans in July. This is the lowest since February 2017. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Holcim's first results after North America spinoff beat profit expectations
Holcim announced better than expected recurring operating profits during its second-quarter results on Thursday. This was the first time the building materials manufacturer has reported its North American operations separately. The Swiss manufacturer of cement and roofing products posted an operating profit of 955 millions Swiss Francs ($1.17billion) in the three-month period ending June. The 944 million francs figure from a year ago was up 1.2%, beating consensus expectations of 929 million. Sales dropped 3.8%, to 4,18 billion Swiss francs. This was slightly lower than forecasts of 4,19 billion Swiss francs. The decrease was due to the strength of the Swiss Franc, which lowered the value of sales in other currencies. It also reflected Holcim's divestment from its businesses in Kenya Tanzania Uganda and South Africa. In local currency, net sales are 2.4% higher and operating profit is 9.8% higher. These figures are the first Holcim published since its North American division was separated into Amrize, a separate company. June 23 Holcim's first 2025 guidance as a stand-alone business said that it expects its operating profit to increase by 6-10% in local currency. The company also forecasted a 3-5% increase in sales in local currency. Reporting by John Revill and Editing by Miranda Murray.
The Russian ESPO premium oil prices in China remain stable despite US tariff threats
Four traders reported on Wednesday that premiums for ESPO blend crude oil loaded from Russia's Kozmino Port in late August or early September to be delivered into China have remained stable as buyers ignore the threat of higher U.S. Tariffs to meet a robust demand. Trump shortened the deadline on Monday for Moscow to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine or face secondary tariffs up to 100% within 10-12 days.
The deadline for Russia is August 7 to 9. Cargoes destined for ESPO loading in September will be traded.
The Russian oil market continued to operate as usual, according to traders.
The premium of ESPO Blend to the international benchmark ICE Brent for cargoes that loaded at the end of August and beginning September was $2-2.20 a barrel, as higher refining margins boosted Chinese interest in buying crude oil. According to them, independent refiners from the eastern Shandong Province have increased crude processing rates slightly as margins improved. This month, state oil companies also increased their rates.
As Middle East crude oil prices have risen, the traders who were not able to be identified publicly said that ESPO was considered by Chinese refiners to be the most cost-effective crude.
Trade sources reported last week that Unipec, the trading division of Sinopec, had purchased 7-8 cargoes for August-loading ESPO. They did not give numbers from previous months.
Sinopec didn't immediately respond to an'inquiry for comment. Last week, traders reported that Shandong Yulong Petrochemical had also purchased Urals crude from Russia.
Traders said that the decline in exports in Russian Sokol crude produced on Sakhalin Island due to maintenance work at the oilfield in August has also supported ESPO price. Kpler data showed that most Sokol crude was exported to China, with the remainder going to India. (Reporting in MOSCOW by Siyi Liu and Florence Tan in SINGAPORE, Editing by Barbara Lewis and Florence Tan)
(source: Reuters)