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S&P says El Nino is unlikely to affect ratings for the time being

S&P says El Nino is unlikely to affect ratings for the time being
S&P says El Nino is unlikely to affect ratings for the time being

One of S&P Global’s top analysts said that El Nino will not 'by itself' lead to sovereign ratings downgrades, unless it is significantly worse than expected and governments take costly measures to support the affected countries. Joydeep Mukherji is S&P's Latin America lead ratings analyst. She said that the rating impact would be determined by the severity of the droughts and flooding caused by a potential "super" El Nino, as well as how policymakers handle the fallout.

Mukherji stated in an interview that "if it's a flood or a dry spell that disrupts economic activity, then you assume?it will pick up within six months, twelve months."

If that's the only thing that happens, ratings should be able?to withstand that kind of stress."

The key factor is more likely to be the response of the governments in the hardest-hit countries.

Mukherji stated, "If there is a small fiscal intervention to help those affected by the crisis, then that's a good thing." However, broader measures like a control on fuel or electricity prices could increase fiscal pressures.

He said: "Suddenly, you've got a fiscal issue on the side. Not just the disruptions caused by natural disasters."

The government faces a difficult choice: either they allow a part of the cost to be borne by businesses and households, or they take on a greater share through increased public spending, larger deficits, and more borrowing.

He said that policy response was key. "Do governments share or spare the costs or do they take it all on themselves in their balance sheet by increasing deficits and debt?"

He said that countries with flexible exchange rate may be better able to absorb weather-related shocks. As examples, he cited Colombia and Peru as two countries where economic impacts could be "substantial".

The 'political tools' available to maintain competitiveness in a country without its own currency, such as Ecuador with the dollar, are fewer.

S&P does not expect El Nino will trigger a negative rating wave.

He warned that there is still a lot of uncertainty about the magnitude of the phenomenon.

(source: Reuters)