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Take Five: Lots to talk about, lots of technology

Next week, investors will be focusing on three major issues: the war in Iran and the interest rate path.

Five of the "Magnificent Seven" U.S. technology giants are reporting their earnings. Four of the top central banks in the world meet to discuss how long they will be able to'realistically' look past the rise in energy prices caused by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

Marc Jones, Dhara Ranasinghe and Lewis Krauskopf in New York will give you all the information about this week's financial markets. Rae Wee is in Singapore.

1/CORRIDOR POWER

The next week will be dominated by a question of whether progress can be made on the Iran War and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz - the naval chokepoint which is the main power play in this conflict.

Iran has shown off its increased control over the shipping route. While there is some relief in the fact that Washington, Tehran, and Israel and Lebanon extended their respective ceasefires it shows what the markets are thinking.

Diplomacy, signs of back-channel discussions, and the social media posts by U.S. president Donald Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei will continue to fuel volatility. This is especially true now that Trump has said he won't rush into a deal because he wants a "everlasting" agreement.

The long-term?conflict has also widened the rift between the U.S.A. and NATO. Trump has repeatedly criticized the members of NATO for not supporting his attacks against Iran. According to officials, Washington is now considering punishing "difficult countries" such as Spain.

2/KA-POWELL!

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain U.S. rates, which means that the focus will be on its signals in the months ahead, given the fact that most economists believe cuts are not an option for the time being.

A subplot that is intriguing is whether this will be Jerome Powell’s last meeting as Fed governor, or if he will attend in the future. His tenure, which extends until 2028, is also being attacked.

This should be his swansong as the 73-year old's tenure as Fed chairman is set to end in a month. A key U.S. Senator has pledged to block Trump's choice for Powell's replacement - former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh – until an investigation into Powell's renovations at the Fed's HQ is dropped.

Also, there will be some important data to take in. On Thursday, the Fed will release both the first-quarter GDP as well as a personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for March.

3/BIG WEEK'S BIG TECH

Next week, five of the "Magnificent Seven", or megacap companies, will report their first-quarter results.

The announcement comes at a moment when investor optimism is almost unshakeable about AI-driven profit, which provides a crucial support for equity indexes that are nearing record highs.

Alphabet is due to report on Wednesday, followed by Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. These four "hyperscalers", who spend billions of dollars each year on high-tech infrastructure and data centres, are all expected to release their reports.

Apple, the iPhone maker, reports the next day, just a few days after it announced that Tim Cook would be replaced by John Ternus, a long-time hardware executive, 15 years after Steve Jobs, Apple's cofounder, took the helm.

But it's not only tech. Next week, more than a third of the S&P 500 will report, including oil giant Exxon Mobil, weight-loss drugmaker Eli Lilly and credit card company Visa.

4/ OPTIONALITY

The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) are expected to keep their key interest rates at 2% and 3.75 percent respectively on Thursday. Both banks have deliberately downplayed bets of a preemptive rate hike over the past two weeks.

Money markets expect both to have risen twice by the end of this year, despite the shaky ceasefire in 'Iran.

The watchword will be flexibility. ECB chief Christine Lagarde is going to be pressed about the likelihood of a hike before summer. She will be keen to avoid a repeating of Jean-Claude Trichet's mistake of raising rates too early, just before the outbreak of the eurozone crisis.

Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the BoE London, has already warned that markets are getting ahead themselves. Given how nervous domestic politics have made gilt markets, Bailey is also walking a fine line.

5/GOING SLOW

The Bank of Japanese?completes a list of major central bankers in action. The Bank of Japan's meeting on February 2nd will kick off the process and, like in the U.S., and Europe, it now appears that the window for a rate increase has closed.

Sources say that Kazuo Ueda, and his co-workers will need more time to assess the aftermath of the Middle East conflict. However, observers believe they'll leave the door open to a hike for June.

Some people worry that they are falling behind. Even the Asian Development Bank's head has warned that the yen may be further impacted if the markets believe the BOJ to be too slow in light of inflationary risks.

For the time being, the Japanese yen continues to hover around 160 per dollar. Investors have long considered this level as a possible trigger point for FX Market intervention. But they are still waiting.

(source: Reuters)