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Questions are raised about some trades made ahead of Trump's policy changes
Experts have questioned whether some of Donald Trump's most important policy decisions were preceded by timely bets. This is a list. April 7, 2026: Announcement of the IRAN ceasefire. The traders placed a $950 million bet on the oil price falling, just hours before an announcement of a truce between the U.S. LSEG data shows that at 1945 GMT, a total of 8,600 lots were sold for Brent and U.S. 'crude futures. Around 2230 GMT Trump announced a two week ceasefire with?Iran. Crude futures fell by 15% at the start Wednesday's trading session. March 23, 2026: IRAN ATTACK pause. An unidentified trader bet $500,000,000 on Brent and WTI futures within a minute, shortly before Trump announced that he would delay the attack on Iran's infrastructure for five days. After Trump's announcement, oil prices dropped 15%. LSEG data indicates that between 1049 and 10:00 GMT, 5,100 lots were traded. Selling dominated the volume. Trump's announcement on social media at 1105 GMT caused over 13,000 lots, or 13 million barrels, to trade in just 60 seconds. Brent fell to $99 from $112 per barrel and WTI to $86 from $99. February 28, 2026: IRAN STRIKES KILLED SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH A. KHAMENEI Wagers made on platforms such as Polymarket prior to the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah A. Khamenei heightened scrutiny on prediction markets. Democratic lawmakers called for a prohibition on bets that are tied to military action, which could reward people with privileged knowledge. Kalshi faces a lawsuit because it failed to pay $54million to those who had bet Khamenei's departure from office before March 1, 2026. The company claims that it doesn't offer markets where the outcome is determined by death. A review of Polymarket’s website revealed that at the time, $529 million had been wagered on contracts relating to the timings of U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. Another $150 million was bet on Khamenei being removed as supreme ruler. Prediction markets allow users to wager on real-world events through tradable contracts. Analysis?firm Bubblemaps has identified six accounts which made a total profit of $1.2 million from Polymarket bets funded just hours before the raids on the 28th February. U.S. Rep. Mike Levin from California highlighted one particular Polymarket bet that was placed shortly before Iran's strikes. Separately traders moved the opposite way on February 27. Despite hotter than expected inflation data, which would normally prompt investors to sell Treasuries with a long maturity, they pushed yields on the 10-year benchmark note below 4%. Analysts say that such a shift to safe-haven assets is usually driven by macroeconomic events which are negative or where there is a strong expectation of one. The Dow Jones U.S. Airline Index fell 5.13% that day, as well. January 3, 2026 -- U.S. CAPTURE OF FORMER VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT NICOLASMADURO An unknown trader made a profit of approximately $410,000 in January after betting on the ouster Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Before the weekend raid by U.S. Special Forces on Maduro’s Caracas compound, a trader's account at Polymarket had built up contracts that were tied to Maduro’s removal. The terms used?implied high odds'. These wagers were worth $34,000 before his capture. However, their value soared after the news of the U.S. military action broke on January 3. Trading data shows that unidentified traders bet millions of dollars in minutes prior to Trump's announcement about tariff pause. This led to a huge rally in April, last year. Trump's Truth Social?pausing Tariffs post came at 1:18 pm. ET on April 9 triggered a 9.5% increase for the S&P 500. Data from the market shows that certain options contracts saw a surge in trading activity before it. Around 1 p.m., 5,105 call options for SPY were traded. The average price was $4.20. These calls rose to as much as $42 when stocks were rallying, turning $2.14 into approximately $21.44 on paper. Other SPY calls, betting that the ETF would rise above $509 were traded around 1:10 p.m. Their value increased from $624,000 to $10 million at the end of the day. It was impossible to determine if the calls had been bought or sold all by the same trader, or if they were purchased and sold by several traders. Kush Desai, White House spokesperson, said that government ethics guidelines prohibit federal employees from profiting from nonpublic information. In an email, he stated that any implication of Administration officials engaging in such activities without evidence was baseless and irresponsible.
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Trump announces 50% tariffs against nations that supply Iran with weapons
?U.S. Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that all imports of military equipment from Iran will be subject to immediate 50% tariffs. There would be no exceptions. He made the announcement in a post on social media just hours after agreeing to a two-week ceasefire. Trump's Truth Social posting did not specify the legal authority that he would use to impose these tariffs. In February, the Supreme Court struck down Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act in order to impose global tariffs. A lower court ordered refunds for $166 billion collected during the course of one year. The 1977 IEEPA Law has been extensively used for years to support financial sanctions against Iran and North Korea. But the court ruled Trump overstepped his authority by using it to impose tariffs. No exceptions or exclusions will apply. "President DJT," Trump wrote. He did not mention any countries that might face punitive duties. China and Russia have provided missiles, air defense systems, and technology to Iran to help it build its military capability to counter U.S. pressure and Israeli pressure. This support was halted during the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. Beijing and Moscow both denied recent allegations that they supplied weapons, but the accusations against Moscow persist. In February, before the first U.S. & Israeli strikes on Iran, it was reported that Tehran had been considering purchasing supersonic cruise missiles. In March, it was reported that China's largest semiconductor manufacturer, SMIC, had sent chipmaking equipment to Iran's army, according to senior Trump administration officials. Alternative Tariff Tools Trump has active "Section 301", unfair trade practices tariffs, on Chinese goods since his first term. He may be able add duties to these and other pending cases relating to excess industrial capacities and China's conformity with a trade agreement in 2020. These would need to be announced publicly before they can take effect. Trump may also be able to?invoke Section 232 of Cold War-era Trade Expansion Act of 1961, which allows for sector-specific tariffs on national security grounds. However, using this law will require a months-long investigation as well as public comments. New tariffs on 'Chinese' goods could exacerbate tensions between Beijing and Trump as he prepares to travel to Beijing for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in order to finalize a 'delicate trade truce. The U.S. Trade representative Jamieson Greer stated on Tuesday that Trump will seek to maintain stability in the U.S. China relationship and to preserve U.S. Access to Chinese-produced rare-earth minerals, magnets, while maintaining previous tariff levels. Greer stated that "we are not seeking massive confrontation with China or anything of the sort"?in the meeting between Trump and Xi. Russia is another source of weapons technology for Iran. However, U.S. imports have dropped sharply after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. U.S. exports to Russia, which is one of the few countries that are not subject to Trump’s "reciprocal tariffs" now cancelled, increased by 26.1% in 2025 to $3.8 billion. Palladium is a major component of automotive catalytic convertors, fertilizers, and their components, as well as enriched uranium used in nuclear reactors. After an anti-dumping probe, the Commerce Department has already moved to impose punitive duties on Russian palladium. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton, Matthew Lewis and David Lawder from Washington)
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Workers say that Venezuelan refineries are only processing 31% of their crude oil capacity.
Workers said that Venezuela's refinery network is processing 399,000 barrels of crude per day, or 31%, of its installed capacity, which is 1.29 million barrels a day. This is below the 35% it achieved in February, as state-run PDVSA struggles with keeping units running after they are restarted, South America has seen its oil production and exports increase since signing a landmark supply agreement with the U.S. Government in January. However, limited power services, outages, and the need for major repairs and maintenance have created obstacles to recovering refinery operations. Workers said that in recent weeks the?PDVSA focused on restarting fuel making units at various refineries. However, some fluid catalytic cracked have been unable to run continuously. One source said that at the largest refinery in the country, the Paraguana Refining Center (955,000 bpd), four crude distillation units are currently operational and processing 237,000 bpd oil. However, only one fluid catalytic cracked is operational. Workers from these facilities reported that two crude distillation units were active at the 187,000 bpd Puerto la Cruz Refinery and one unit was active with 80,000 bpd. A fluid catalytic crinkler was also in service. Venezuela has experienced periods of severe fuel shortages in the past. Drivers were forced to wait in line for days at gas stations. According to data from ship tracking, PDVSA is importing naphtha under U.S. authorizations this year, which it has been using for complementing its own domestic fuel production.
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Leaked audio: Hungarian Minister offers to send Russia EU documents
Leaked recordings purportedly showed Hungary's Foreign Minister offering to send his Russian counterpart an?document on Ukraine's European Union membership, as the latest sign of Budapest's warm relationship with Moscow. The audio 'clips' released by a group of investigative news - outlets, including VSquare.org, were the latest of a series leaked conversations purporting to show that Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary has been working to serve Russian interests while undermining EU efforts to help Ukraine. Orban, who has ordered an investigation after Orban's previous statement that wiretapping his calls was "a huge scandal", was unable independently to verify the authenticity. The recordings were released just days before Orban's election, in which he faces his toughest challenge during 16 years of rule. Orban is a nationalist who often finds himself at odds with Brussels over a variety of issues. Independent polls indicate that a pro EU challenger is likely to win on Sunday, which could push Budapest away from Moscow. I will send it to your email. "It's no problem," Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto said in a conversation after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Moscow was trying to obtain a document on the 'role of minorities languages' in Ukraine's EU accession talks. The document was not clearly identified and it wasn't clear if the public domain version was available. On Wednesday, a Hungarian spokesperson failed to respond immediately to a comment request. The Kremlin did not immediately comment. FRIENDLY CONVERSATIONS VSquare in Warsaw released the audio from a March call between Szijjarto, and Lavrov. A VSquare spokesperson told the media at the time that VSquare had independently?verified the audio recordings it acquired using sources from more than one country with the help external audio experts. The three audio clips that were released on Wednesday are friendly. Lavrov ends a discussion about the convening of an intergovernmental economic commission in Budapest with "all?the best, my friend." Szijjarto tells Szijjarto that he is at your disposal whenever you need anything. The written transcripts of other conversations detail preparations for Orban's trip to Moscow in 2020, when Hungary will hold the rotating presidency of the EU. Orban also discussed blocking a new raft of EU sanctions against Moscow in 2025 due to its invasion of Ukraine. Szijjarto, in a third audio clip, asks Lavrov to provide details on what was discussed during a 2025 meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Szijjarto is a frequent visitor to Moscow, ever since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Szijjarto met Putin on March 4 to discuss oil supply, among other topics. Orban, in response to criticisms that he undermines EU efforts to assist Ukraine, says he wants to protect Hungary's interests and keep it out of the conflict. Reporting by Alan Charlish, Warsaw. Editing by Gareth Jones
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Oil price drop ahead of ceasefire is a big bet for traders worth $950 million
Investors bet $950 million on oil prices falling hours before U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran. This is the latest big wager made on the direction the world's largest traded commodity will take ahead of his major announcement. According to LSEG, investors sold a total of 8,600 lots on Tuesday at 1945 GMT. Trump announced a 2-week ceasefire with Iran at 2230 GMT, reversing his threat to destroy "a whole civilisation" on Tuesday. This caused crude futures to fall by 15%, and below $100 per barrel, for the opening of the official trading session of Wednesday. It is not uncommon for traders to take large positions on the oil price, both rising and falling. This allows them to hedge large amounts of physical oil trade. These deals are rarely made in large lots. Instead, traders will use sweeping orders to cover multiple exchanges and ask their brokers to trade algorithmically over several hours to avoid affecting prices. After settlement (Monday to Friday, 1830 GMT), large orders are rarely executed. Investors made a similar bet on March 23 when they sold $500 million worth of oil futures 15 minutes before Trump announced that he would delay attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. This move stunned the markets and caused a 15% decline in crude prices. At 1945 GMT on Tuesday, 6,200 Brent?futures were traded, which is about 1% the volume of all trades in the day's normal session. Meanwhile, 2,400 WTI futures were traded, which is also around 1%. CME Group has declined to comment. ICE didn't immediately respond to a comment request. Since the beginning of the war, trading volumes and volatility have increased dramatically. In the three years prior to the war, on average,?300,000.00 lots of Brent crude futures changed hands every day. This amount has doubled over the past four weeks, as daily volumes are at record highs exceeding 1 million lots. That's equivalent to one billion barrels. Reporting by Amanda Cooper in London, Alex Lawler, and Ahmad Ghaddar; Editing by ElisaMartinuzzi, Dmitry Zhdannikov, and Elaine Hardcastle
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Source: Iranian attack damages Saudi Arabia's bypassing Hormuz oil pipeline
An industry source said that other facilities in Saudi Arabia were also targeted in an Iranian attack. An industry source said that the pipeline diverted around 7 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), from the oil heartland of the kingdom in the east to the Red Sea Port of Yanbu, after 'Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. This trapped huge volumes of oil and gas, sending the world energy markets soaring. Sources said that the flow of oil through the pipeline would be affected. Damage was also being assessed. This could worsen what experts call the worst energy crisis in history. Aramco exports approximately 5 million bpd, while using?about 2 millions bpd at home. Shipping data show that Yanbu's?loadings averaged near-capacity of 4.6 million bpd in the week starting March 23. This is despite the attacks on the hub. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary 'Guard Corps' (IRGC), in a Wednesday statement, said it had hit several?"targets" across the region using?missiles or drones. This included?what they called oil facilities owned by American companies in Yanbu. (Reporting and Editing by David Goodman, Emelia Sithole Matarise)
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World Bank lowers its Middle East growth projection for 2026 after turmoil in the energy sector
The GCC's growth forecast for 2026 has been reduced to 1.3% due to lower hydrocarbon revenue Kuwait and Qatar's economies are expected to contract in this year The World Bank warns about lingering risks in the region DUBAI, 8 April - In a report released on Wednesday, the World Bank slashed the growth forecast for the Middle East's economies in 2026 as a "consequence" of the conflict between the U.S. and Israel, along with Iran. The report also warned of widespread risks. Donald Trump announced late Tuesday a ceasefire of two weeks in the conflict. The conflict is now in its sixth month. This was subject to Iran agreeing to pause their blockade of gas and oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Foreign Minister said Tehran would cease counter-attacks and provide safe passage across the waterway. The conflict has now entered its sixth week. In its Economic Update for the Middle East and North Africa, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Pakistan, the World Bank Group stated that the closure of the strategic Strait and destruction of public and energy infrastructure had disrupted the markets, increased volatility and weakened growth prospects in 2026. "Risks have a definite downward tilt." The report stated that uncertainty is widespread and that the economic outlook may?shift dramatically if the conflict intensifies. The Group's January forecasts indicate that the overall GDP growth for the?region will slow from an estimated 4% to 1,8% in 2026. This is 2.4 points lower than the Group's estimates. The growth of oil and gas in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Iraq is expected to be even slower, as they are among those most affected by the conflict. The World Bank has downgraded their forecast for the GCC which includes Saudi Arabia, the top oil exporter in the world, to just 1.3% by 2026. This is a 3.1-point drop from the January projection. It was mainly due to lower hydrocarbon revenues projected because of the disruptions caused by conflict. Kuwait and Qatar, which are 'less economically diversified and where energy-related disruptions are more serious', will see their growth contract by 6.4% and 5,7% respectively. The current crisis serves as a reminder that the region has a lot of work to do: it must not only withstand shocks but also rebuild stronger economies with better macroeconomic fundamentals. It must innovate, improve governance, invest and create jobs in the infrastructure and boost the employment-creating sector. The World Bank stated that it would not publish any forecasts for Iran beyond the fiscal year 2025/26 due to the "exceptionally high uncertainty". The World Bank said that the real GDP is estimated to shrink by 2.7% during the fiscal year 2025/26 to March 20, 2026. Reporting by Kim Coghill; Editing by Kim Coghill
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How investors are dealing with Iran shocks using the new Trump trades
Investors are putting together a "Trump trade' playbook to?navigate market uncertainty. This includes determining whether a U.S. - Iran ceasefire will last and whether oil prices will remain high for longer. As geopolitics continue to dominate the economy, it is difficult to move money based on long-term perspectives. During the Iran War, many?investors have placed shorter-term bets instead on assets which may have been?mispriced?. Here is a list of some new Trump trades. 1/OIL PRICE WILL STAY HIGHER FOR A LONGER TIME Oil prices fell almost 15% to $100 per barrel in the wake of the ceasefire on Wednesday, but are expected to stay higher longer due to the uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Oil futures six-months out trade at around $79, a higher price than before the start of the war on February 28. Some analysts claim that they have been swinging too low. They tend to fall sharply when it looks like a detente is more likely. Michael Haigh, Societe Generale’s global head for commodities research, stated that even a successful ceasefire without further tensions could put an upper limit on the price of oil at $85 per barrel. He added that this would increase if more states, now concerned about energy security, began to stockpile oil. Investors who avoided energy producers for years are now 'less bearish. Bank of America's March 31 survey found that 30% of investors still have a negative view of the sector due to ESG concerns. This is down from 40% six months ago. Shell stated on Wednesday that it expects a stronger oil market in the future. 2/ CANADA AND NORWAY Investors said that the U.S. Dollar has recovered its lustre following months of doldrums. However, if the war ends and the demand for the reserve currency is reduced, while crude oil prices remain high, then some oil producing nations' currencies could shine. Van Luu, Russell Investments global head of solutions, said that it would take some time for things to get back to normal. The tankers might not travel for a few months, but oil prices could rise. If oil prices are between $85 and $100 per barrel, energy exporters from politically stable countries (you could include Norway and Canada) should perform better. BOND BOUNCE BACK? The U.S. president Donald Trump's pledge to halt the war sent British and Euro zone government borrowing rates plummeting, as fears of inflation among energy importers began to wane. Money managers have said that these yields are still too high in comparison to interest rates and inflation expectations, particularly in Britain, where the base rate is 3.75% and consumer price inflation is at 3.2%, and the yield on the 10-year bond is slightly below 4.7%. Nicolo B. Bragazza is a Morningstar Wealth Associate Portfolio Manager who is?positive about gilts. In the euro zone, German 10-year yields have a value of around 2.9% in comparison to interest rates which are at 2%. The markets now only price a 20% probability of an April European Central Bank rate hike, down from 60% prior to Trump's Iran ceasefire announcement. Hunting out anomalies Bragazza stated that investors overreact when they hear good or bad news. This creates pricing anomalies, as assets which should not be correlated swing together on markets dominated with war sentiment. Edmond de Rothschild's head of quantitative portfolio management Bruno Taillardat said: "Trading is not as evenly distributed as it should, and some sectors should be immune to this at the very least on a medium-term basis." He pointed out that global healthcare stocks, which are usually considered to be relatively defensive?during recessions have traded in line since the start of World War II with a world-index of economically cyclical companies. Investors who are able to detect the mispricing of opportunities due to daily market movements will stand out in sentiment-driven markets. Taillardat predicted that Trump's rhetoric would keep the markets volatile, and cause headlines to be overreacted to. Morningstar's Bragazza stated that "it's this type of asymmetrical behaviour that creates the right opportunity."
Sources say that Rusal is planning to redirect aluminium from China towards Japan, as the Iran conflict has reshaped trade.
Two?sources who are directly involved in the matter have confirmed that Rusal, the Russian aluminium manufacturer, plans to divert some of its aluminum away from China and towards Japan and other Asian countries, as the Iran War reshapes trade flows globally and sends prices soaring.
According to Trade Data Monitor, the Middle East produced almost 7 million metric tonnes of primary aluminum last year. This is 9% of the global supply. Japan imported 2.1 million tons from the Middle East, with 400,000 tons coming from the UAE. The country imported 143,000 tonnes from China, but only 68,000 from Russia.
Japanese buyers agreed to pay premiums between $350 and $353 per tonne for aluminium from April to?June. This is the highest premium in 11 years. Spot premiums are also on the rise, a potentially lucrative trend for producers.
These premiums are usually paid over the London Metal Exchange's price and serve as a benchmark for regional comparison.
Sources said that more Russian metal would be available in the future, but the imports of Russian aluminum into Rusal’s main market, China, will fall. From October to February, Rusal’s aluminium exports to China averaged between 170,000 and 180,000?tons per month.
The two sources who were directly involved in Rusal’s plans, as well as two other people familiar with the industry, said that this is because Rusal’s Chinese customers do not want to pay Japanese premiums for domestic aluminium when it can be purchased at a lower price.
One of the sources who has direct knowledge stated that "this is unavoidable" if arbitrage stays at the current level. Source: Rusal has increased sales in South Korea due to the Gulf situation.
Rusal refused to comment on the rerouting of metal.
Sources who declined to identify themselves as they weren't authorised to talk to the media did not reveal how much Rusal intended to sell in China or Japan for this year.
RAGIONAL WAR, GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS
Rusal’s move is the latest indication of how the Iran War has affected the 'physical' aluminium market. The Iranian attacks on two of the Gulf's largest smelters and the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz have led consumers to look for supplies elsewhere.
Rusal will produce 3.9 million tonnes of aluminium by 2025. Sales of primary aluminum and alloys are higher, at 4.5 millions tons. This is due to the release from old stocks.
Rusal's main export markets were China, South Korea, and Turkey in 2025. These three countries accounted for $5.2 billion ($1.2 billion), $802 million ($802 billion), and $5.2 billion ($1.2 billion) respectively of Rusal’s total revenue of $14.8 billion.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western consumers have shunned Rusal.
Japan isn't the only market where physical aluminium prices have risen. In Europe, consumers will pay almost $600 per ton over the LME price for supplies, the highest since June 2022. In the United States, they'll pay a record-high of $2,500 per ton.
The increase in Chinese aluminium prices is comparatively?more modest. Shanghai Futures Exchange Aluminium is down less than 4% since the beginning of the Iran War compared to a %10 increase in LME Aluminum in March.
China accounts for 60% global aluminium production, despite the fact that it has received bumper inflows of aluminium from Russia, Indonesia and, more recently, ShFE.
(source: Reuters)