Latest News

Andy Home: Cobalt limits in the Congo expose China's weakness with critical metals

China's dominance in critical mineral supply chain is not as absolute as it might appear.

Cobalt is an example.

According to the International Energy Agency, China will account for 78% global refined output of battery metal by 2024. It lacks significant mining capacity at home, making it heavily dependent on imports.

The export controls of the Democratic Republic of Congo have exposed this vulnerability. This is the biggest?source of cobalt intermediate products? for Chinese processors.

Congo suspended exports of cobalt in February and implemented a quota-based system in October.

The fourth quarter of the year saw a near-standstill in shipments to China, and local prices are now surging due to an intense scramble to get units.

As the U.S. attempts to loosen China’s grip on Congolese mineral wealth, the competition for Congolese Cobalt will only heat up.

EXPORT CONTROLS

The Congo has set export quotas of 18,125 tons metric for the fourth quarter 2025, and 96.600 tons including 10% strategic allocation for this year.

Export shipments?came to a complete stop in the last three months of the year due to delays in implementing the scheme.

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the Cobalt Institute's consultancy, the first truck carrying cobalt left the country only in January.

Operators can roll over their Q4 2025 allocations to this year, but because exports to China typically take three months to arrive in the country, China is experiencing a severe supply shortage.

PINCH POINT

Congo's export restrictions have pushed up the price of refined cobalt on CME from $10 per lb to $25 in 2025.

But this is just part of the story.

The price of intermediate products, such as Congolese Hydroxide, is based on the cobalt content. In February, this "payable" traded at about 55% of metal price. Now, it is regularly quoted at an unheard of 100%.

Due to the shortage of intermediate products, buyers have been forced to turn towards cobalt metal stock held by China's Stainless Steel Exchange (Wuxi), which is the country's leading cobalt trading platform.

At the end of January, more than 3,250 tonnes of cobalt, or 37%, of the exchange stocks were removed from Wuxi registered storage warehouses.

The Congo is the only alternative supplier of China.

Indonesia is the main cobalt producer, as it is a nickel by-product. BMI says that even with increased Indonesian production in this year, the amount won't fill the gap created by Congo's limited export flows.

COMPETITION

China was the dominant player in Congo until recently, sourcing copper and cobalt for its domestic refineries and smelters.

That's changing.

The Congo's export controls on cobalt are part of an overall restructuring?of the mineral sector, as the country tries to make more money from its natural resource wealth.

The U.S. helped mediate between Kinshasa, Rwanda and other parties to end the violence that has been raging in eastern Congo.

The deal opened up the country to U.S. investments. The U.S. international development?finance corporation announced plans in December to take a stake into a joint venture that will market the government's portion of copper and cobalt. U.S. buyers will have first refusal.

The new rail link linking the Angolan Port of Lobito to the Congo is central to U.S. Policy in Central Africa. It's a strategic corridor that rivals the Chinese-backed alternative railway from Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

Chinese cobalt purchasers are not only facing lower imports from the Congo, but also increased competition in what is being mined.

ACHILLES' HEEL

China's Achilles heel is its mining industry, which controls the global cobalt supply chain.

Rare earths and other minerals are also critical.

China, the largest rare earth miner in the world, is not self-sufficient. It imports raw materials such as terbium and dysprosium from Myanmar.

China will be more dependent on supplying mining inputs from third parties as its own demand for raw materials increases.

China's cobalt purchasers are discovering that this dependence will become increasingly problematic.

Andy Home is a journalist. His opinions are his. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance is available. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.

Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)