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India-Russian oil and defense ties
The Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit India for a summit this week with Indian Prime Minister Narendra modi. The meeting will focus on boosting energy, defense and economic ties as Moscow tries to secure oil sales despite tighter Western sanctions. Energy exports from Moscow are a major source of revenue, but sanctions that were imposed following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have started to impact its oil sales. India and Russia are likely to discuss the following issues: OIL PURCHASES Moscow wants India to continue buying more oil after Indian refineries stopped importing due to sanctions. India is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world. Russia is their top oil supplier. India's crude oil imports will hit a minimum of a three-year high this month, as Washington tightened its sanctions against Russia's two largest oil producers, Rosneft, and Lukoil. Indian Oil Corp, among state refiners is purchasing Russian oil from entities that are not sanctioned, and Bharat Petrol Corp has advanced in negotiations with regard to orders. After other suppliers pulled out, the Indian refiner Nayara Energy - owned in part by Rosneft - is now exclusively using Russian oil. Russia wants India to support Nayara in increasing its local fuel sales and capacity usage. Reliance Industries Ltd, the top Indian oil client of Russia, said that it would process Russian oil arriving in its domestic plant after November 22. UPSTREAM ASSETS Oil and Natural Gas Corp. of India wants to keep its 20% share in the Sakhalin-1 oil and natural gas project in Russia's far east. Oil India Ltd., Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat PetroleumResources are Indian companies that hold a combined 23.9% of JSC Vankorneft, and a 29,9% stake in Tass Yuryakh Neftegazodobycha. ONGC Videsh is the overseas investment arm for ONGC. It holds a 26 percent stake in JSC Vankorneft. In Russian banks, millions of dollars in dividends due to Indian companies for these assets are still stuck. Oil India holds a 50% share in the Russian block License 61. NUCLEAR ASSETS India and Russia are collaborating on a civil nuclear project to build six reactors with a capacity of 1,000 megawatts each at Kudankulam, in the state of Tamil Nadu. The project consists of two operational units and four under construction. Russia will also provide fuel for the project. Both countries are discussing the possibility of establishing more Russian large reactors as well as modular small reactors. DEFENCE TALKS Two Indian officials who are familiar with the issue said that the Su-57 is the most advanced fighter offered by Moscow and will likely be discussed in the talks this week. Last week, Rajesh Kumar Singh, the Defence Secretary of India, said that India would also be likely to consider buying additional units of Russia's S-400 air defense system. The country has now received three units and two more are awaiting delivery under a 2018 agreement. TRADE AND ECONOMIC LINKS India and Russia are aiming to increase their two-way trade from $13 billion to $100 billion by 2030. This is after the rise of over five times, from around $13 billion to $68 billion by 2024-25. The growth was mainly due to India's imports of energy. The Commerce Ministry data shows that the decline in oil prices caused a drop to 28.25 billion dollars between April and August. Both countries are working to create a free trade agreement between India and the Eurasian Economic Union. This will reduce tariffs, remove non-tariff obstacles and increase market access. RUPEE-ROUBLE PAYMENT & TRADE MECHANISMS India and Russia expanded rupee-rouble agreements to protect trade from sanctions, and reduce reliance on foreign currencies. The Reserve Bank of India and the Indian Government have relaxed these payments and allowed investments of excess rupee balances into assets, including government securities. Diversification beyond traditional sectors A pact of industrial cooperation signed in this year has broadened India-Russian ties to areas like aluminum, fertilizers, railways and mining technologies. Both countries are working on boosting connectivity by implementing projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor, and the proposed Chennai-Vladivostok Sea Route to increase trade with Central Asia. Reporting by Nidhi verma, Krishna N. Das and Manoj Kumar; editing by Clarence Fernandez
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Sudan's RSF paramilitary claims to have taken control of West Kordofan Town
The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces of Sudan (RSF), a group that is part of the Sudanese military, claimed on Monday to have taken full control over Babanusa. This transport hub in the oil-producing southern region was seized by the RSF. However, its rival, Sudanese Army, denied the claim. In a Monday statement, the RSF stated that it "liberated" Babanusa state in West Kordofan -- the latest frontline of the war in Sudan -- after it defeated "a surprise assault" by the Sudanese Army in what it termed "a clear breach of the humanitarian ceasefire." The army denied on Tuesday that the RSF had captured the entire town and accused its opponents of continuing to attack Babanusa, despite the unilateral ceasefire announced by RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. In a press release, the army stated that RSF fighters have launched daily drone and artillery strikes on the city and that troops have repelled an attack on Monday. It was not possible to verify immediately the claims of the rival forces. The army dismissed this declaration of ceasefire as a political tactic to mask RSF movements, and the alleged support from foreign countries. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on November 19 that he would intervene in order to end the conflict which began as a result of a power struggle that erupted in April 2023. In November, the United States, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, collectively known as the Quad, proposed a plan that would include a three-month ceasefire followed by peace negotiations. RSF said it accepted the plan but attacked army territory shortly after with drone strikes. The RSF's attack on Babanusa builds upon the momentum the group gained after taking al-Fashir in October, the last army holdout in Darfur. Reporting by Menna Alaa el Din and Khalid Abdelaziz, Writing by Muhammad Al Gebaly, Alexander Dziadosz & Tala Ramadan and Editing by Cynthia Osterman & Aiden Lewis
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Copper falls from its peak due to a stronger dollar and a weaker risk appetite
The copper prices fell on Tuesday due to the stronger dollar and a lower risk appetite. Investors also locked in profits after a rally that reached a record-high in the previous session. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.4% by 1015 GMT to $11,202 per metric ton, after hitting a record high of $11,334 Monday. LME copper is up 27% this year so far, mostly due to fears about possible shortages. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank, Copenhagen. He said: "We are pausing today as we have seen the dollar recovering and a general decrease in risk appetite." After a decline in cryptocurrency and a global bond saleoff, traders were cautious on Tuesday. After a strong demand for Japanese government bonds, the dollar rose against yen. The dollar's strength makes goods priced in U.S. dollars more expensive for buyers who use other currencies. Hansen stated that "copper is still in a good mood but it needs a correction. As long as we keep $11,000 we are poised to see higher prices, as the outlook for 2019 indicates a tightening market." Investors are reaping profits by arbitraging between the U.S. Comex and the LME, delivering copper to U.S. warehouses. The market is also evaluating the impact of the plan by major Chinese smelters to reduce production by 10% in 2019. Analysts at Chinese broker Jinrui Futures stated in a report that the plan of smelters to reduce output confirmed the view that supply of refined copper would become tight. After reaching a record-high of 89.920 yuan per ton earlier, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended daytime trading 0.1% higher, closing at 88.920 yuan. Other metals saw a 0.1% increase in LME aluminium to $2.896.50 per ton. Lead also gained 0.1%, to $2.003, while zinc fell 0.4%, to $3.085, Nickel dropped 0.2%, to $14.900, and Tin lost 0.4%, to $39,000.
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Newspaper reports suggest that the EU may delay its auto package due to increasing pressure on the 2035 deadline.
According to a report in Handelsblatt, the European Commission may delay the announcement a package of support for the automotive industry, which could include a possible easing of the 2035 phase-out of combustion engines, as lobbied by Germany and automakers. The German Business Daily reported that EU Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas said the package might be delayed for a few weeks. On December 10, the Commission, the EU executive branch, is expected to announce the date. Tzitzikostas, in a report published late Monday, said that Brussels was working "very hard", but it might not be done until January. We are still working on this. "We want to offer an automotive package which is comprehensive and covers every aspect," he said. The Commissioner signaled openness to Berlin’s calls for greater flexibility regarding the current target which effectively bans the sale of new combustion engine cars from 2035. This includes appeals to allow plug in hybrids and “highly efficient” combustion engines. Tzitzikostas stated that "we are open to any technology". He added that the letter of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz describing proposed changes supported by industry had been "very positively accepted".
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Gold prices fall as investors take profits and Treasury yields increase
The gold price fell on Tuesday due to rising U.S. Treasury rates and profit booking after a six-week-high was reached in the previous session. Silver also retreated from its previous record high. By 0917 GMT, spot gold had fallen 0.7% to $4203.55 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery were down 0.9%, at $4,234.40 an ounce. Carlo Alberto De Casa is an external analyst with Swissquote. He said that some traders are taking profits after the price has risen from $4,000 to $3,250 over the past two weeks. The benchmark yields for 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remained near a 2-week high following the weakness of Japanese and European government debt, which reduced the appeal of bullion that does not pay a return. The data released on Monday revealed that U.S. Manufacturing contracted for the ninth consecutive month in November. Investors will now be watching the November ADP Employment Report and Friday's PCE Index for clues about a Fed rate cut next week. In a late-night address to Stanford University, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made no comments on the economy or on monetary policy. CME's FedWatch tool shows that traders are pricing in a 87% chance for a Fed rate cut in December. Gold that does not yield is usually favored by lower interest rates. The markets are also awaiting President Donald Trump to announce the new Federal Reserve Chairman. White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett is reportedly the frontrunner. Hassett favors lower rates of interest, just like Trump. De Casa stated that "I expect the gold price to consolidate laterally between $4,000 and $3,400 over the next few months," adding that a Fed interest rate cut may open up space for more rallies. Silver eased 1.6% from its record high of $58,83 per ounce on Monday, to $57.01 an ounce. Spot silver has risen 97% this year due to a growing industrial and safe-haven demand. Palladium rose 0.8% to $1,435.44 and platinum fell 0.9% at $1,642.56. (Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair)
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Malaysia tightens its nuclear control under amended law
Malaysia amended its nuclear regulatory structure to require that permits are obtained for all activities involving atomic energy, including the import, export and transshipment radioactive materials. Malaysia is conducting feasibility studies to adopt nuclear energy as part of its efforts to meet energy demands and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. On Tuesday, the Science, Technology and Innovation Ministry announced that the move was intended to strengthen the legal framework for control and supervision of nuclear energy activities in order to protect workers, public and environment. The document also addresses the safety and security measures for radioactive materials and facilities, as well as making sure that they are implemented. It also clarifies liability in case of nuclear damage. The ministry released a statement that said, "The scope of the control and supervision will be expanded to include safety, security, and safeguards in order to create a comprehensive nuclear law that is aligned with global standards." Importing radioactive material or nuclear materials, items or technology related to nuclear energy, as well as exporting, transshipping or transiting these materials, will require permits. The new requirements include decommissioning systems, nuclear material accounting and control systems and International Atomic Energy Agency reports and inspections. The law imposes severe penalties for sabotage, nuclear weapons violations and terrorism. These crimes are punishable with 30-40 years in prison or even the death penalty.
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Kremlin: India's decline in Russian oil imports could be temporary
Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson on Tuesday, told Indian journalists that the decline in India's imports of Russian oil may only last for a "brief period", as Moscow intends to increase supplies to New Delhi. India, which is the largest buyer of Russian oil by sea, has reduced its crude imports to Moscow due to Western sanctions. India is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world. Russia is its top oil supplier. This month, India is expected to reduce its Russian oil imports to a minimum of a three-year high after Washington sanctions Moscow's largest oil producers Rosneft & Lukoil. Peskov, an Indian journalist, told Indian journalists in an online briefing Tuesday, just days before President Vladimir Putin's visit to India to hold summit talks with Prime Minster Narendra Modi. He said that trade mechanisms which could not be affected by a third country were needed. Russia had experience with doing business under sanctions. Indian refiners such as Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd., Hindustan Petroleum Corp., and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd. have stopped purchasing Russian oil. Indian Oil Corp, the state-run oil company, has placed orders for non-sanctioned companies to purchase Russian oil. Bharat Petroleum Corp's negotiations with Russia are in a very advanced stage. After British and EU sanctions, the Russian-backed Indian refiner Nayara Energy (partly owned by Rosneft) is processing only Russian oil. Russia wants India continue to support Nayara in order to boost local sales and capacity usage. Reliance Industries Ltd., formerly the largest Indian oil client to Russia, said that it had loaded Russian oil cargoes as "precommitted", starting on October 22. It will also process any parcels arriving after November 20, at its refinery, which is designed to produce fuels specifically for the Indian market.
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Putin wants to increase energy and defence exports during India's visit.
The Russian President Vladimir Putin begins a two-day trip to India on Thursday. He will be promoting more Russian oil sales, missile systems, and fighter jets to restore the energy and defence links that have been damaged by U.S. sanctions against India. Russia has been supplying arms to India since the 1960s. New Delhi is now its largest buyer of oil by sea despite Western sanctions imposed after Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022. India's crude oil imports will hit a low of three years this month after Russia was sanctioned for its increasing purchases of U.S. gas and oil. Putin's defence minister Andrei Belousov will accompany him on his first trip to India in four years for a meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He will also be joined by a large delegation of businesspeople and industrialists. Michael Kugelman, of the Atlantic Council in Washington, said that the visit of Putin offers Delhi the opportunity to reassert its special relationship with Moscow despite recent events and make progress in new weapons deals. He added that new initiatives would be announced even if most of them were low-hanging fruits in the ties. TRUMP FACTOR Indian officials are concerned that any new energy or defence deals with Russia may trigger a response from U.S. president Donald Trump. In August, Trump doubled the tariffs on Indian goods to 50% as punishment for New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil. Both sides had discussions in advance of Putin's arrival, ranging from shipping to agriculture. In August, both sides agreed to begin negotiations for a free-trade agreement between India and the Russian led Eurasian Economic Union. Indian analysts claim that they are also in discussions to expand their partnership on civilian nuclear energy. A source familiar with the situation said that Putin's delegation included the CEOs of Sberbank, the dominant Russian bank, and Rosoboronexport (the state arms exporter), as well as the leaders of Rosneft and GazpromNeft. Sberbank had stated that it was interested in investing into Indian infrastructure projects using rupees. Rupees are used to settle a large portion of bilateral trade. Ivan Nosov, India's CEO at Sberbank, said the bank was also providing rupee loans to Russian companies and exporters to help boost Indian sales. The industry source and another Indian government source said that Moscow will likely seek India's assistance to obtain technical equipment for its assets in the oil sector, since sanctions have hampered access to suppliers. The speaker spoke under the condition of anonymity, as this is a sensitive matter. The source said that India will likely bid for the restoration of a 20% stake for the state-owned gas explorer ONGC Videsh Ltd, in the Sakhalin-1 Project in Russia's Far East. India hopes to conclude a U.S.-India trade agreement by the end of the year, since most of its refiners stopped buying Russian crude oil. However, some state refiners are now being attracted by discounts. Sources requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak with media. INDIA LOOKS TO RUSSIA FOR DEFENSE SPARES Last week, Rajesh Kumar Singh, the Defence Secretary, said that India, unlike crude, does not intend to freeze its defence ties with Moscow any time soon, as it needs support for many Russian systems. According to two Indian officials who are familiar with the issue, Russian Sukhoi-30 fighter jets comprise the majority of India's fighter squadrons. Moscow has also offered the Su-57 fighter, its most advanced model, and this is likely to be discussed in the talks scheduled for this week. The officials who spoke under condition of anonymity said that India hasn't made a final decision about buying the jet. Singh, who spoke last week, said that India will likely discuss the purchase of more S-400 air defense systems. Harsh Pant of India's Observer Research Foundation, who heads the foreign policy studies department, believes that recent U.S.-Russian talks on ending the Ukraine conflict could make it easier for Indian officials and diplomats to communicate with Moscow. He added that "a large part of our trading relationship was based around energy, and now it is losing momentum under the threat from sanctions by the United States." "At the end of it all, defence is what binds the two together." (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Nidhi verma, Shivam patel)
Mali expects annual windfall of $1.2 billion from miners after new code
Audit uncovers irregularities leading to significant recoveries
The new code will increase revenue by 586 billion CFA Francs annually
Barrick settles dispute and migrates to new code
By Tiemoko Diallo
BAMAKO, 2 December - Mali recovered 761 billion CFA Francs ($1.2billion) in arrears due from mining companies after a thorough audit, the finance minister announced. This is one of Mali's largest clawbacks from extractive industry. In early 2023, the military-led government conducted an audit of Mali’s mining sector that revealed massive shortfalls and led to the creation of a new code.
The new mining law increased royalties, increased state stakes in companies that mine and eliminated stability clauses.
After an audit by Inventus and Mozar revealed financial irregularities, a recovery commission was established. The state's estimated shortfalls and irregularities were between 300 and 600 billion CFA francs. A two-year dispute erupted with Canadian mining company Barrick Mining - Mali's largest gold producer – over the overhaul of the industry. In November, a deal was reached. Alousseni Sanou did not mention Barrick's 244 billion CFA Francs deal in his Monday evening speech on state TV. B2Gold, Allied Gold, Resolute Mining and Endeavour Mining as well as lithium players such Ganfeng, Kodal and Kodal have all settled their arrears earlier and migrated over to the new regime.
Sanou, who presented the audit report to Assimi Gouta during a ceremony, said: "I am thrilled with these results. We can mention that 761 billion CFA were recovered out of the 400 billion CFA target." Sanou said that all mining firms will now be operating under the code 2023, which should increase annual revenues by about 586 billion CFA Francs for audited companies alone. Their total contribution is estimated to be around 1,022 billion CFA Francs every year.
He said that the total cost of audit and legal fees was 2.87 billion CFA Francs.
Mamou Toure said that the aim was to not only recover the funds, but to also give the state an important stake in the mining contracts.
Mali is one of Africa's largest gold producers and heavily relies on its mining industry for both export revenues and fiscal revenue. As a result of the scrutiny for tighter oversight, industrial gold production fell 32% on an annual basis to 26.2 metric tonnes by August.
(source: Reuters)