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Russell: Asia's refined oil imports fall, but margins are still strong

Russell: Asia's refined oil imports fall, but margins are still strong

In April, Asia's imports for key refined fuels like gasoline and diesel dropped to their lowest level in four years. This was due to refinery maintenance as well as a weaker demand from the region that is the largest importer.

According to commodity analysts Kpler, the total imports of light distillates and middle distillates in April were 166.37 millions barrels, down from March's 195.54 and the lowest since April 2020.

The sharp fall in imports for April was due to a decline in shipments by key exporters of refined goods.

Kpler reports that India, which is the top fuel exporter in the region, saw its exports of middle and light distillates plummet to a 30 month low of 29,2 million barrels, down from 42,66 million barrels exported in March.

China, with the largest refinery capacity in Asia, saw its exports for light and middle distillates fall to 17,4 million barrels per day in April. This is down from 21.5 millions in March, and it's the lowest amount on a daily basis since December.

Singapore, the Asian trading hub and refining center for crude oil and products, saw its exports of light and middle distillates drop to a 7-month low in April, from 26,15 million barrels in March.

In India, for example, refineries are undergoing maintenance.

There are signs of weakness in other fuel exporters. China's refinery production was largely flat compared to the same period last year, which limits export volumes.

Asia's imports for the first four-month period of 2025 totaled 746.73 millions barrels, a decline of 11.6% compared to the same period of 2024.

The decline in sales would suggest that profit margins of refiners are under pressure, as they compete to gain market share.

This hasn't yet happened. The margins for a typical Singapore refinery processing Dubai crude are still too high. On Wednesday, oil prices ended at $6.60 per barrel. This is not far below the recent high of $7.25 reached on May 5, a 15-month record.

Fuel Margin

The price of crude oil, which is the intermediate distillate used to make diesel and jet fuel, has fallen faster than gasoline and gasoil.

Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, have fallen 20% since their peak on January 15, when they reached $82.63 per barrel. They closed at $66.09 on Wednesday.

However Singapore gasoline Gasoil, on the other hand, has fallen by 17.5% on Wednesday to $16.24.

This is an indication that the supply of refined fuel into Asia has been restricted, allowing refiners maintain margins despite falling crude oil prices.

The trade war that Donald Trump has launched is likely to have a negative impact on the economic growth of Asia.

The overall picture remains that U.S. tariffs on imports will likely end up significantly higher than before Trump took office.

Even if successful trade agreements are negotiated, Asia’s exporters will still face higher costs and a more difficult market access in the United States.

The trade war poses a further threat to the oil product market, as Indonesia, Asia's largest fuel importer, has indicated that it might buy more from the U.S. in exchange for a deal.

Indonesian Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia stated on May 9th that Southeast Asian nation Indonesia may move as much as 60% of their fuel purchases from Singapore to the United States.

The proposal to increase fuel imports to the U.S. from Indonesia is part of an overall proposal to Washington that addresses the tariffs. Jakarta has also indicated its desire to boost U.S. imports of energy by around $10 billion.

Indonesia imports 14 million barrels per month of light and middle distillates, and switching to buy the bulk from America would disrupt regional flow of refined products.

Alternative markets would be required in Europe, Africa, and Latin America. This would increase costs and reduce profits.

These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)