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Iron ore prices fall as the focus shifts from China's steel demand to a softening of iron ore.
Iron ore futures fell on Thursday as the focus returned to a softening of steel consumption during China's off peak demand season. The daytime trading price of the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 701 yuan (US$97.60). As of 0701 GMT, the benchmark July iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell 0.8% to $94.7 per ton. Analysts at Galaxy Futures stated that prices of the main steelmaking ingredient will fluctuate due to the seasonal weakness in demand. The iron ore market is not changing fundamentally. "The upward momentum caused by the coal price rally faded and ore prices also weakened," said Zhuo Guqiu, a broker at Jinrui Futures. Zhuo said that the downside potential of hot metal production is limited by its relatively high output, despite reductions in production and falling portside inventories. Iron ore demand is usually gauged by the hot metal production. Galaxy's analysts noted that despite a recent trade truce, the steel exports are showing signs of a slump, which is dragging down demand. A weak steel demand is a risk to feedstocks. Following Wednesday's rally of more than 6%, other steelmaking ingredients coking coal, and coke, have also seen gains, albeit slower. They are up 1.68%, and 0.56% respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are range bound. Rebar grew 0.14%; hot-rolled coil fell 0.19%; wire rod grew 0.06%; and stainless steel climbed 0.2%. $1 = 7.1822 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Eileen Soreng).
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Nickel supply will continue to expand despite slower demand growth, according to industry experts
Speakers at an industry conference this week predicted that oversupply on the global nickel market would persist in the coming years due to the expansion of production capacity and the slower growth in demand, particularly for the metal used as a component in stainless steel and batteries. The benchmark price has been halved over the last three years due to a surge in nickel production in Indonesia. This country is the largest producer of nickel in the world with a 63% market share. Macquarie analyst Jim Lennon said at a Shanghai Metals Market industry conference in Jakarta that the market was oversupplied. In addition, he added, "Indonesia will soon complete several projects, which will increase production capacity." Lennon believes the surplus will continue to grow until 2027-2028. The London Metal Exchange's most traded nickel contract was trading at $15,380 a metric ton on Thursday morning, after hitting a low of $13,865 five years ago on April 7. Nickel reached a record-high above $48,000 per ton early in 2022. Lennon stated that the $15,000 threshold is critical for costs in the industry. He said that after production cuts started in 2022-2023 half of the existing producers would be at risk if price falls below this level. The use of lithium iron phosphate (LIP) batteries, which are cheaper, has slowed the growth in nickel demand. The analyst's estimate of the battery industry's nickel consumption in 2030 has been reduced to 967,000 tonnes, down from 1.5 million tons as predicted by the industry two years ago. Nickel consumption by the battery industry was 518 tons in 2013. Denis Sharypin is the strategic marketing director of Nornickel in Russia. He said that prices are being pushed lower by an oversupply, which means about one-fourth nickel producers worldwide are losing money on a cost-plus basis. Steven Chen, the global sales director at Eternal Tsingshan Group Ltd (part of China's Tsingshan holding group), said that Indonesian nickel pig iron smelters, which is an alloy used to make stainless steel, also face margin compression. Chen stated that "Smelters have been struggling and this may lead to a reduction in production. There may also be widespread cuts or closures of some smaller smelting facilities in the near future." Indonesia's mining ministry has stated that the government will manage nickel supply and demand in order to support prices. Hongmei Li, Singapore (Writing & Additional Reporting) Mrigank Dhaniwala (Editing).
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Lynas, Australia's automaker, surges after warnings from Chinese export restrictions on rare earths
Shares of Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths rose to their highest level in over two years on Thursday, after automakers warned China’s export restrictions could cause production delays. Lynas, the largest rare-earth manufacturer outside of China, is expected to profit from global supply concerns. Analysts believe that the rising geopolitical tensions and the demand for essential minerals could be favorable for the Australia listed company. Lynas stock rose 11.8% to A$9.2, reaching its highest level since the 8th of February 2023. This was also the biggest intraday percentage increase for the stock since October 24, 2023. Hebe Chen is a market analyst with Vantage Markets. She said: "Lynas rally...is a powerful representation of the dual forces at work today: escalating global tensions and surging green technology demand." As China tightens its rare-earth export restrictions, the markets price in supply risk -- positioning Lynas as a strategic hedge. In April, China, which produces 90% of the world's rare-earth minerals, implemented export restrictions on strategic minerals as a response to tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump. This move has raised alarms in industries that rely on 17 rare earth elements. These are essential for advanced electronics, defense systems, and electric vehicles. German automakers have emphasized the urgency of their concerns this week by warning that China's restrictions on exports of rare-earth minerals pose a serious threat to production and local economies. The European auto supplier association CLEPA reported that several production lines had shut down due to a lack of supplies. Mercedes-Benz, on the other hand, said it was in talks with top suppliers to build "buffers", such as stockpiles, to protect against possible threats to supply. China is the world's largest supplier of rare-earth metals, despite the fact that these elements are common in the earth crust. This is because China has mastered the environmentally difficult and complex refining process. Lynas, a non-Chinese producer, is a key player in the U.S. rare-earth industry.
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Asian shares continue to rise, while the dollar languishes in front of the ECB
The U.S. Dollar remained stagnant as the European Central Bank released its outlook on a turbulent global economy. Dollar fell in the previous session due to weak U.S. data on jobs and services. Friday will bring more important employment data. The damage to the U.S. economic system is becoming more evident as a result of President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies, and bilateral agreements remain unrealised. The European Union and Canada reported progress in their trade negotiations with Washington. In this context, the market will be paying greater attention to any signals that Christine Lagarde gives about her future plans. Kyle Rodda is a senior analyst for Capital.com. He said that there's uncertainty regarding the guidance given by the central bank, due to the uncertain outlook of U.S. global trade policy and U.S. Trade Policy. If the central bank fails to provide sufficiently dovish advice, it could disrupt the equity markets and give the euro upward momentum. Trump's doubled tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum took effect on Wednesday. They were aimed at Canada and Mexico. On the same day, Trump's administration asked trading partners for "best offers" to prevent other import levies from taking effect in July. Ryosei Acazawa, Japan's top trade negotiator, will be in the U.S. for another round on Thursday. Friedrich Merz is due to travel to Washington as well. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose by 0.4%. Japan's Nikkei index fell 0.5%. South Korea's benchmark KOSPI stock index surged by 0.9%, reaching a new 11-month high due to the extended optimism following the election of Lee Jae Myung as president. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.5% on the back of tech shares. Chris Nicol is the Australia equity strategist for Morgan Stanley. He said that the markets are complacent in the sense that they expect to continue with the resolution of issues and the closing of deals. "The policy has yet to be set in stone, and the impact on growth and inflation is still uncertain." The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies) rose by 0.1% to 98.879 and reversed its 0.5% decline on Wednesday. The dollar increased by 0.2%, to 143 yen. The euro was mostly flat at $1.1411, after a 0.4% increase in the previous session. Gold lost its gains of the previous day, while oil fell after an increase in U.S. stocks and Saudi Arabia slashed its July crude prices for Asian buyers. Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,367.30 an ounce. U.S. crude fell 0.5% to $62.58 per barrel. The S&P 500 futures as well as the Euro Stoxx 50 pan-region futures were not much changed.
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Ukraine and the US discuss ways to make the minerals fund operational within a year
Ukraine's Yulia Shvyrydenko said that the United States and Ukraine have discussed ways to make the minerals fund operational before the end of this year. The fund's initial meeting is scheduled for July. Svyrydenko signed the agreement in Washington, after months of hard negotiations, which made the terms more favorable for Kyiv. The agreement was heavily promoted by U.S. president Donald Trump. The Ukrainian parliament ratified this agreement. Svyrydenko met with U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent on Wednesday and the Development Finance Corporation which will be the partner of the Minerals Fund. "We discussed very concrete steps to make this fund functional during this year," Svyrydenko told reporters. We will have our first board meeting in July to discuss the seed capital needed to operate this fund. We should also adopt a strategy for investing in this fund over the next few decades. Negotiations leading to the signing of the Mineral Fund deal were preceded by a heated discussion between Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the White House about how to end Ukraine's war with Russia, which has lasted for three years. Zelenskiy's ability to repair his relationship with Trump was dependent on the agreement. In April, the two men briefly met at the Vatican during the funeral for Pope Francis in order to get their relationship back on track. Reporting by Gram Slattery, Costas Pitas and SonaliPaul; Editing by Ron Popeski & SonaliPaul
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China's coal power plant approvals grow after 2024 decline
China approved 11.29 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power plants in the first three months of 2025, already exceeding the 10.34 GW approved in the first half of 2024, a new Greenpeace report showed on Thursday. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT Last year, Chinese approvals of new coal-fired power capacity fell 41.5% year-on-year to 62.24 GW, the first annual decline since 2021. The new data suggest approvals are tracking higher this year. While all the approved projects may not be built, the growing pipeline signals a continued reliance on coal. Reducing coal use to cut emissions is key to China's goal to hit peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. KEY QUOTE "The year 2025 marks a pivotal moment in the country's energy transition. There is already enough existing capacity to meet today's peak demand. Approving a new wave of large-scale coal projects risks creating overcapacity, stranded assets, and higher transition costs," said Gao Yuhe, Greenpeace's climate and energy project manager for East Asia. State planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the National Energy Administration did not immediately respond to faxed requests for comment. BY THE NUMBERS This year marks the last in China's 2021-2025 five-year plan, in which China has approved 289 GW in new coal capacity, around double the 145 GW approved for the 2016-2020 period. CONTEXT China has said it will start to phase down coal during the 2026-2030 five-year plan, but Beijing has not committed to any specific targets. WHAT'S NEXT Greenpeace called for more ambitious carbon emissions goals from China and a clear timeline for phasing out coal. It also said China's power sector emissions could peak this year as growth in wind and solar outpaces coal. (Reporting by Colleen Howe; Editing by Tom Hogue)
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Tullow Oil Lines Up Production Extension for Jubilee and TEN fields off Ghana
Tullow Oil and its partners have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Government of Ghana to extend the West Cape Three Points (WCTP) and Deep Water Tano (DWT) licenses to 2040, which cover the Jubilee and TEN fields off the West African country.The MoU has been signed between the Government of Ghana, Tullow Oil, Kosmos Energy, PetroSA, Ghana National Petroleum Company (GNPC) and Explorco.It includes approval to drill up to 20 additional wells in the Jubilee field, representing investment of up to $2 billion in Ghana over the life of the licenses.As a result of the extension the JV partnership expects to realize a material increase in gross 2P reserves.A number of principles are covered within the MOU that will help underpin the continued development of the Jubilee and TEN fields, including a commitment to work to increase in the supply of gas from the Jubilee and TEN fields to c.130 mmscf/d, a reduced gas price for Jubilee associated gas, and a guaranteed reimbursement mechanism for gas sales.Also, it provides for investment in Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) and the Petroleum Commission's capacity with a focus on the use of advanced technologyAll terms and conditions of the existing WCTP and DWT Petroleum Agreements remain in place and continue unchanged.The next steps, following this MOU, are the submission for approval of a Jubilee Plan of Development (PoD) Addendum, entering into new fully termed gas sales agreements (GSA), and the submission for parliamentary approval of the payment security mechanism and license extensions planned before the end of the third quarter of 2025."This Memorandum of Understanding between the Republic of Ghana and the DWT and WCTP partners marks a significant step forward in our nation's energy sector. Extending the licenses to 2040 demonstrates our commitment to fostering a stable and attractive investment climate.“This MOU will not only ensure the continued production of oil, supporting our economic growth, but also allow us to further develop our infrastructure and create more job opportunities for our citizens. We are dedicated to responsible resource management and look forward to a prosperous future fuelled by sustainable energy practices,” said John Abdulai Jinapor, Ghana's Minister for Energy and Green Transition."This is a valuable step forward for the Government of Ghana, Tullow and our JV partners, highlighting the collaborative and constructive relationship we all have in reaching our shared goal of building a better future for the people of Ghana, through responsible oil and gas development. "This extension and the fiscal stability of our contracts emphasizes the opportunity Ghana represents to deliver additional value through production and reserves additions, providing greater long-term optionality and materiality to these core assets,” added Richard Miller, Chief Financial Officer and Interim Chief Executive Officer of Tullow.
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Iron ore prices fall as the focus shifts from China's steel demand to a softening of iron ore.
Iron ore futures fell on Thursday as the focus returned to a softening of steel consumption during China's off peak demand season. As of 0238 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.14% lower. It was 701 yuan (US$97.61) per metric ton. As of 0228 GMT, the benchmark July Iron Ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell by 0.69% to $94.8 per ton. Galaxy Futures analysts said that due to the lack of driving forces, the price of the main steelmaking ingredient is expected to fluctuate despite the seasonal weak demand. The iron ore market is not changing fundamentally. "The wave of upward momentum caused by the price rally of coal has faded so ore prices have also weakened," said Zhuo Guqiu, a broker at Jinrui Futures. Zhuo said that the downside potential of hot metal production is limited by its relatively high output despite reductions in production and declining inventories at ports. Iron ore demand is usually gauged by the hot metal production. Galaxy's analysts noted that despite a recent trade truce, the steel exports are showing signs of a slump, which is dragging down demand. A weak steel demand is also a risk to feedstocks. Following Wednesday's rally of more than 6%, other steelmaking ingredients coking coal, and coke, have also seen gains, albeit slower. They rose by 1.01% and 0.11 %, respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are range bound. Hot-rolled coils fell 0.19% while wire rods and stainless steel gained 0.2%. ($1 = 7,1820 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
Russell: Asia's refined oil imports fall, but margins are still strong
In April, Asia's imports for key refined fuels like gasoline and diesel dropped to their lowest level in four years. This was due to refinery maintenance as well as a weaker demand from the region that is the largest importer.
According to commodity analysts Kpler, the total imports of light distillates and middle distillates in April were 166.37 millions barrels, down from March's 195.54 and the lowest since April 2020.
The sharp fall in imports for April was due to a decline in shipments by key exporters of refined goods.
Kpler reports that India, which is the top fuel exporter in the region, saw its exports of middle and light distillates plummet to a 30 month low of 29,2 million barrels, down from 42,66 million barrels exported in March.
China, with the largest refinery capacity in Asia, saw its exports for light and middle distillates fall to 17,4 million barrels per day in April. This is down from 21.5 millions in March, and it's the lowest amount on a daily basis since December.
Singapore, the Asian trading hub and refining center for crude oil and products, saw its exports of light and middle distillates drop to a 7-month low in April, from 26,15 million barrels in March.
In India, for example, refineries are undergoing maintenance.
There are signs of weakness in other fuel exporters. China's refinery production was largely flat compared to the same period last year, which limits export volumes.
Asia's imports for the first four-month period of 2025 totaled 746.73 millions barrels, a decline of 11.6% compared to the same period of 2024.
The decline in sales would suggest that profit margins of refiners are under pressure, as they compete to gain market share.
This hasn't yet happened. The margins for a typical Singapore refinery processing Dubai crude are still too high.
Fuel Margin
The price of crude oil, which is the intermediate distillate used to make diesel and jet fuel, has fallen faster than gasoline and gasoil.
Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, have fallen 20% since their peak on January 15, when they reached $82.63 per barrel. They closed at $66.09 on Wednesday.
However Singapore gasoline
This is an indication that the supply of refined fuel into Asia has been restricted, allowing refiners maintain margins despite falling crude oil prices.
The trade war that Donald Trump has launched is likely to have a negative impact on the economic growth of Asia.
The overall picture remains that U.S. tariffs on imports will likely end up significantly higher than before Trump took office.
Even if successful trade agreements are negotiated, Asia’s exporters will still face higher costs and a more difficult market access in the United States.
The trade war poses a further threat to the oil product market, as Indonesia, Asia's largest fuel importer, has indicated that it might buy more from the U.S. in exchange for a deal.
Indonesian Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia stated on May 9th that Southeast Asian nation Indonesia may move as much as 60% of their fuel purchases from Singapore to the United States.
The proposal to increase fuel imports to the U.S. from Indonesia is part of an overall proposal to Washington that addresses the tariffs. Jakarta has also indicated its desire to boost U.S. imports of energy by around $10 billion.
Indonesia imports 14 million barrels per month of light and middle distillates, and switching to buy the bulk from America would disrupt regional flow of refined products.
Alternative markets would be required in Europe, Africa, and Latin America. This would increase costs and reduce profits.
These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
(source: Reuters)