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Cocoa tops global products rally for second year, steel components battle on China need

Cocoa and coffee are poised to close 2024 as the biggest gainers among commodities for a 2nd year on an international supply deficit, while steelmaking coal will end as the worst performer, hit by slow growth in China.

Looking ahead, global trade stress are most likely to control the commodities landscape in 2025 as Donald Trump goes back to the White Home threatening substantial tariffs, experts said.

A strong dollar and gold's appeal as a safe haven for financiers are likely to support rare-earth elements rates, while adequate supply could depress oil for a 3rd year, they included.

In bad news for chocolate enthusiasts, cocoa almost tripled in cost over 2024, far outmatching gains in other commodities. It hit a record high of $12,931 a metric lot in New York previously this month on forecasts of lower supply for a fourth succeeding season in West Africa following dry weather condition.

The softs sector, led by cocoa and coffee, has been the main winner amid adverse weather in crucial growing areas, highlighting the threat to prices when products like these are produced and sourced from reasonably little geographical areas, said Ole Hansen, head of product strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen.

Leading cocoa manufacturers Ivory Coast and Ghana have actually suffered crop losses due to adverse weather, bean disease, smuggling and lowered plantations in favour of prohibited gold mining.

Dryness has actually strained coffee supplies as well. ICE Arabica coffee costs skyrocketed to their highest in more than 40 years in the middle of worries that serious drought earlier this year harmed the upcoming crop in leading producer Brazil.

CHINA GROWTH CONCERNS HIT OIL, IRON ORE

Petroleum and bulk metals dealt with headwinds in 2024 as China, the world's second-biggest economy and leading commodities buyer, had a hard time generally due to a property crisis.

Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude could post a 3rd consecutive yearly decline in 2025 as supply outstrips a rebound in need growth, analysts stated, although Trump's policies on significant manufacturers Russia and Iran might suppress supply.

Spare capability in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reached an extraordinary 5 million barrels daily (bpd), analysts approximated, with the group having extended production cuts to March.

The bleak inventory path next year recommends that OPEC+ will be challenged to revive barrels into the marketplace, Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group, stated in a note.

Iron ore prices in China recouped some losses in recent months however are still headed for a 15% decline in 2024. Prices could fall again next year as iron ore supply grows and Chinese steel need falls, experts said, in spite of Beijing's. stimulus procedures.

We anticipate the increase in iron ore supply from major miners. will be higher than that in 2024, however steel output in China will. likely slide, Pei Hao, senior analyst at brokerage Freight. Financier Services, said, forecasting a typical price of $100 a. lot in 2025, below an average of $110 in 2024.

Gold and silver increased more than 25% in 2024 and. might climb further in the year ahead depending upon the U.S. Federal Reserve's rates of interest cuts and Trump's tariff, tax and. diplomacies, analysts said.

Gold is the standout for us in 2025, ING's head of. commodity research Warren Patterson stated, including that strong. gold purchases by reserve banks will support need.

Copper and aluminium prices are set to end. 2024 higher, driven by tight materials, the energy shift and. hopes that China's stimulus steps will enhance demand.

PALM OIL, RUBBER AND GRAINS

For farming products, Malaysian palm oil futures. jumped around 20% in 2024, snapping two successive. years of losses, lifted by Indonesia's biodiesel mandate and. adverse weather condition in Indonesia and Malaysia.

Crop-threatening weather condition also drove a 42% gain in Tokyo. rubber futures.

In contrast, soybeans, corn and wheat were. in numerous supply, all on track for losses in 2024. Nevertheless,. wheat costs could discover some support in 2025 as warmer weather condition. in Russia, the most significant exporter, threatens to lower output.

Leading soybean exporter Brazil is poised to provide record. supplies in 2025, positioning it to satisfy a rise in Chinese. demand if a Washington-Beijing trade war appears.

(source: Reuters)