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Oil prices drop by over $2 after Trump suspends Strait opening to possible deal
?U.S. Oil futures dropped on Wednesday morning by over $2 after U.S. President?Donald Trump announced that an operation to reopen Strait of Hormuz would be paused temporarily to determine if an agreement could?be finalised. As of 2326 GMT, U.S West Texas Intermediate fell $2.23 or 2.18% to $100.04 a barrel. Trump stated on Tuesday that while the operation to reopen?the Strait?of Hormuz would be paused,?the?blockade would?remain? in force. WTI fell 3.9% on Tuesday, after the ceasefire was maintained despite reports of exchanges. Brent dropped 4% and closed at $109.87. Market sources cited American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday, which showed that U.S. crude inventories had?fallen for the third consecutive week. Gasoline and distillate stock also 'declined. Sources who spoke on condition of anonymity said that crude stocks dropped by 8.1 million barges in the week ending May 1. The sources reported that gasoline inventories dropped by 6.1 million barrels and distillate stocks by 4.6 million barrels in comparison to a previous week. Helen Clark (Reporting; Chris Reese, Editing)
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South Korean consumer inflation in April is highest for nearly two years due to Iran war
As expected, the increase in South Korea's consumer price in April was the fastest in almost two years. The surge in oil prices caused by the Middle East conflict fueled the rise. Data from the government showed that the consumer price index increased 2.6% in April compared to a year ago, after increasing 2.2% in March. This was in line with the median poll forecast and marked the largest year-on year increase since July 2024. According to the Ministry of Data and Statistics, the index increased 0.5% from last month after increasing?0.3% the month prior. Prices of petroleum products rose 7.9% and international airfares jumped 13.5%. The South Korean government has set nationwide fuel price limits, which are reducing inflation pressure. Chun Kyu -yeon is an economist at Hana Securities. Chun stated that "however, for the moment, the trend of rising prices will continue to be valid, since there is a growing possibility of service inflation due to factors such as airfare increases." Even after the Bank of Korea's policy measures, the deputy governor said that it was time to consider raising interest rates. In March, the nation-wide fuel price cap was introduced for the first time since nearly 30 years. The next meeting of the Bank of Korea, which kept interest rates unchanged last month amid increased uncertainty about the Iran War, will be held on May 28.
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Suncor's profits surpass expectations as increased production offsets the oil market turmoil
Suncor Energy, Canada's largest energy company, beat Wall Street estimates for the first quarter adjusted profit on Tuesday. This was largely due to higher production and throughput volumes. Geopolitical unrest and volatility of global oil prices dominated the?quarter. Prices have risen by more than 87% in this year alone after the U.S./Israeli war against Iran damaged supply chains?and key energy infrastructure. Canadian oil and gas producers have steadily increased output while reducing costs. Suncor, and its peers have outperformed global competitors amid macro-uncertainty due to years' worth of investment. Suncor's quarterly upstream?production increased to?875,000 barrels a day (bpd), from 853,000 bpd one year earlier. The refinery's throughput increased by 15,000 bpd, to 498,000 bpd in the third quarter. Its utilization rate was 97%. Canadian producers benefited from capacity increases and higher nameplate capacities in the refining networks. The company has lowered its refinery usage guidance from?99%-102% to 90%-93%, but kept the throughput guidance at 460,000-475,000. Suncor also increased its projected share repurchases of over 30%, and anticipates buying back $4 billion worth of shares by 2026. According to data compiled LSEG, the Calgary-based company reported an adjusted profit per share of C$1.93 (US$1.42) for the 'quarter ended March 31. This compares with analysts' average estimates of C$1.79, according to LSEG.
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Distributors push back against the Petrobras-Vale agreement that has seen direct diesel sales increase in Brazil.
After Petrobras, the state-run oil company, signed a contract with Vale, fuel distributors reacted by reducing their sales. Distributors group 'Sindicom' sent letters to oil regulator ANP and were seen by them. They said direct fuel sales from producers create competitive distortions. The group includes distributors like Vibra, Raizen, and Ultrapar. Sindicom claimed that, unlike distributors of the RenovaBio program, such producers are not required by law to purchase CBios (carbonization credits), also known as CBios. Currently, only distributors are required to purchase them. ANP, in a document seen by us, reported that the direct sales of Diesel B (blended biodiesel) to large consumers were 22.39 millions liters, up from 1.1million liters the previous quarter. ANP confirmed the figures when asked for comment but stated that it would not reveal which manufacturers made the sales "for reasons of competition". Petrobras is Brazil's main diesel producer. Petrobras announced in January that it had reached an agreement with?Vale for the supply of diesel to?the miner?s operations located in Minas Gerais. ANP reports that Minas Gerais purchased 19.49 million liters (nearly 90%) of the diesel directly from producers reported between January and march. In one of the letters Sindicom sent to ANP, it said that "as producers aren't obligated agents in RenovaBio the direct sale by these agents of fossil fuels to large consumers takes place in asymmetrical manner in comparison with distributors." Petrobras stated that it constantly evaluates the possibility of direct sales to large customers, always in compliance with current legislation. It did not confirm the volume sold. Vale stated that the agreement between Petrobras and Vale is subject to confidentiality clauses. The miner did not reveal the purchased quantities. According to statements made by previous executives, Petrobras was seeking to sell fuels directly to large consumers. This strategy would allow Petrobras to gain a greater?share of market and be closer?to the end customer in a more profitable manner. The state-owned firm's executives have claimed that they lost contact with the end consumer after the sale of BR Distribuidora – now Vibra – in 2019. (Reporting and writing by Marta Nogueira, Fernando Cardoso, David Gregorio).
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Ameren's quarterly profits rise as infrastructure investments boost returns
Ameren, the utility company, reported a?23% increase in its first-quarter profits on Tuesday. This was primarily due to earnings from infrastructure investments that aimed to improve reliability. Utility companies are increasing spending on transmission and delivery networks to meet the rising demand for power in 'the U.S. Electric segment revenue rose by?2.4% in the quarter to $1.66?million, while revenue from the gas segment grew by?8.4% to $515?million. Ameren reported that its net income for the quarter ended March 31 rose to $357 million or $1.28 a share. This is up from $289 millions or $1.07 a share compared to a year earlier. St. The?St. The?Missouri division's quarterly results were negatively affected by lower retail electricity sales and higher interest costs, due to increased borrowing for infrastructure projects. Ameren 'Missouri reported a?electric?sales figure of 9,031 kilowatt-hours, down from 9,421 kilowatt-hours last year. This is due to the warmer than normal winter. Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois, its rate-regulated utility subsidiary companies, serve?about 2.5?million electricity customers and?more than 900?000 natural gas customers over a 64,000-square mile area. (Reporting and editing by Arunima Kumna and Sumit Saha, Bengaluru)
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US gasoline prices reach $4.50 per gallon as the summer driving season approaches
GasBuddy data showed that the U.S. average retail price of gas in the United States surpassed $4.50 a galon on Tuesday, for the first time since July 20, 2022. The U.S.-Israeli conflict?with _Iran? was disrupting a significant portion of the global oil supply shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Memorial Day Weekend and the peak driving season of summer are approaching. As President Donald Trump and Republicans campaign for November's midterm elections, rising pump prices present a serious political risk. Analysts say that without a de-escalation of the Middle East, U.S. motor oil prices could surpass previous records. As of 5:20 pm, the national average gasoline price was $4.52 per gallon. GasBuddy's data shows that the price of gasoline in the U.S. was $4.52 per gallon on Tuesday. Prices reached $4 late in March, the highest level since August 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. GasBuddy's data shows that California has the highest average price at the pump in the United States, $6.14 per gallon. On fears that the Gulf War will continue, gasoline prices have risen along with crude oil futures. Brent crude, the global benchmark for crude oil prices has risen 58% since war began. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan stated that the Strait of Hormuz closure continues to push up oil and gasoline prices. However, we've seen refinery issues which have exacerbated some of these increases. Last week, BP's 440,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery in Whiting, Indiana, experienced a brief power outage that caused one of its processing units to be shut down. The company has since reported that operations have been restored. De Haan stated that "if the Strait of Hormuz doesn't open, I expect gas prices to stay over $4.50 per gallon this summer." Before U.S. and Israel launched their attack on Iran, February 28, approximately?20% global oil supplies were passing through the Strait of Hormuz every day. Morgan Stanley stated that U.S. gas inventories are?drawing quicker than the normal seasonal pattern. The base case indicated that stocks would fall below 200 million barrels in late August, close to historic summer lows. EIA data shows that U.S. gasoline inventories fell by over 6 million barrels in the last week, and were at 222.3 millions barrels on April 24. This was the lowest level since December, and more than 2,000,000 barrels below seasonal averages for the past five years. The data show that gasoline demand reached 8.95 million barrels based on a four week average, an increase of 1% compared to the same period last year. Morgan Stanley said that the?demand remained stable despite pump prices of $4 or more. It is not driving draws, but it's not soft enough for the supply-driven stocks to slow down. U.S. gasoline contracts were hovering around $3.64 per gallon on Monday, their highest price since 2022.
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Iranian media reports three dead in fire at a shopping centre west from Tehran
Iranian media reported that at least?three people were killed and 26 injured after a fire broke out in a shopping center west of Tehran. IRIB, Iran's national broadcaster, cited the?fire departments as saying that the?fire had been "largely contained". Fars, a semi-official news agency, reported that the cause of the incident is still unknown. Iranian media, including Fars showed a video of a plume of heavy smoke rising out of the site. The location of buildings, utility poles and trees, and the road layout matched the satellite and archive imagery. Fire broke out after a renewed 'fire exchange' between Iran and the United States on Monday.
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Utility WEC Energy’s first-quarter profits rise on higher power demand
WEC Energy, a utility firm, reported an increase in its 'first quarter profit' on Tuesday. This was largely due to higher sales to residential and industrial customers. It also said that it worked with large hyperscale clients for a potential growth of load of up to four gigawatts. The U.S. is expecting its power consumption to increase further this year after reaching its second consecutive annual record in 2025. This will be driven by Big Techs race to build energy-intensive, data centers that support AI initiatives and homes and business increasingly using electricity for heating and transportation. WEC announced on a call after earnings that it received regulatory approval to purchase three additional solar projects, as well as a battery-storage project. The company plans to invest $730 millions. The company reported that the consumption of electricity by large commercial and industrial clients increased 2.7% in the last quarter, while the consumption by small commercial and industrial consumers increased 0.7%. The residential electricity consumption increased by 0.2% compared to a year ago, and total retail deliveries of electricity rose by 1.3%. WEC, a company that serves 4.7 million customers in Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, and Minnesota, reported that natural gas deliveries to Wisconsin dropped 2.1% during the first quarter. Natural gas is provided by the company through its We Power and Wisconsin Public Service divisions. CEO Scott Lauber said, "The first quarter results were solid due to the continued execution of our capital plan and the focus on operational efficiencies." WEC announced in February that it would increase capital expenditure by $1 billion over the next five year as it increased output to power Microsoft's data centers. The company expects to increase its capital spending in the third quarter. The company's net quarterly income increased to $804.4 millions, or $2.45 a share, up from $724.2millions, or $2.27 a share, one year earlier. (Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar and Tasim Zahid)
MORNING BID AMERICAS-Gulf singe, AI binge
What's important in the U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan. Editor-at-Large for Finance and Markets
Gulf tensions flared up on Monday, as U.S. efforts to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz were met with resistance by Iran. This included an attack on an oil port in the UAE. Crude prices soared in response to the news, but have since eased slightly as we head into Tuesday. The markets are torn by the geopolitical uncertainty and the dramatic upgrade to U.S. AI spending and earnings forecasts.
Below, I'll go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast for the latest episode, in which I explain why the markets are still upbeat, despite recent tensions in Gulf.
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GULF BINGE, AI SINGE Oil prices rose by around 6% on Monday and major U.S. indices fell as fresh U.S. - Iran exchanges indicated that we may be seeing the return of an hot war. Brent and WTI crude oil settled at $114 per barrel and $106 per barrel, respectively. Reports that a U.S. flagged vehicle carrier was escorted by the U.S. Military out of the Strait pushed crude prices down and helped calm the markets on Tuesday morning. Wall Street futures opened in the green just before the bell rang, and European shares rose on the back of positive earnings. Asian shares dipped in holiday-thinned trade, with Japan and South Korea closed.
Investors are hoping that the geopolitical crisis does not escalate any further so they can focus on what is proving to another 'blockbuster' earnings season. The full-year S&P 500 growth forecasts were revised up to 23% from just 18% a month earlier. Morgan Stanley's latest upgrade to AI spending estimates was the main driver. Morgan Stanley believes that the capex growth for the top five "hyperscalers" will exceed $800 billion in this year, and $1.1 trillion the following year. Goldman Sachs estimates that the total spend up to 2031 could be $7.6 trillion.
AMD, Pfizer, and KKR are among the U.S. firms that will report their earnings today. The markets are also keeping an eye on the transatlantic tensions following President Trump's threat to increase tariffs on EU car imports to 25% late last week. This dragged the shares of European automakers down by about 2% on Monday. Today, the JOLTS data on job openings for March will kick off a busy week of labor market data in the United States. Investors are puzzled by GameStop's $56 billion offer for eBay, the online retailer. The video game retailer gained fame as a'meme stock" in '2021.
Chart of the Day On Tuesday, Australia's central bank raised rates for the third time in this year. The rate was returned to its post-pandemic peak of 4.35%. They also warned that inflation would continue to be sticky due the Middle East conflict unleashing a global oil crisis.
Money markets indicate that there is a 15% probability of another move in June. However, an increase to 4.6% by September has been fully priced in. This would be the largest since late 2011.
Watch today's events
* U.S. JOLTS March job openings (10 am EDT), the March trade balance (8.30 am EDT), and March new home sales (10am EDT).
* Fed's Michelle Bowman speaks
* ?U.S. Corporate earnings: AMD Pfizer KKR
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(source: Reuters)