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Oil gains and stock prices rise as ceasefire is tested

Wall Street stocks rose on Wednesday after U.S. president Donald Trump unilaterally declared a ceasefire extension. Oil prices also increased as Iran broke the fragile truce and seized two cargo ships at the Strait of Hormuz.

A broad rally lifted all three major U.S. stock indexes, while gold?advanced?and U.S. Treasury Yields dropped.

"Things have slowed down a bit, so (investors can) focus on the economy for a while and not worry about the bombs that are flying in the Middle East," said Paul Nolte. He is a senior wealth advisor & Market Strategist at Murphy & Sylvest, located in Elmhurst. There's some concern about the fact that there is a ceasefire but that it hasn't been resolved.

It only delays a decision." Iran's Revolutionary Guards seize two ships for maritime violations, just hours after Trump agreed that the ceasefire would be extended until?negotiations were concluded. The U.S. stock market, which was initially impacted by the war against Iran, has since recovered. Both the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq, have reached new highs in recent sessions. Geopolitical uncertainties persist and a prolonged period with high oil prices is a danger. According to transcripts, about two thirds of S&P 500 companies who have reported quarterly earnings in the last few months have expressed concern about energy prices.

The first-quarter earnings season has begun amid high expectations. According to the latest LSEG data, analysts currently expect S&P 500 earnings growth of 14.4% year-on-year for the period January-March.

The first quarter was before the Iran War. Nolte said, "I do not think that we will feel the full impact of the war on earnings until we receive second quarter reports next July." The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 364.21 or 0.75% to 49,513.59; the S&P 500 gained 59.43 or 0.84% to 7,123.44; and the Nasdaq Composite increased 283.12 or 1.17% to 24,543.08.

The European share price was slightly lower after the extension of the U.S. - Iran truce. Middle East turmoil continued to affect markets, and investors weighed corporate earnings. Since the start of the conflict, dozens of international companies have announced price increases or withdrawn their guidance. MSCI's global stock index rose by 3.98 points or 0.37% to 1,070.44. The STOXX 600 pan-European index dropped 0.23% while the FTSEurofirst 300 broad index in Europe fell 6.06 points or 0.25%. Emerging market stocks dropped 8.34 points or 0.52% to 1,607.14. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan ended lower by 0.57% at 822.53, whereas Japan's Nikkei gained?236.69 or 0.40% to 59585.86.

Amid lingering geopolitical concerns, the dollar edged higher against euro. The dollar index (which measures the greenback against a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.06% at 98.44. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.11% to $1.1728. The dollar fell 0.09% against the Japanese yen to 159.23. Bitcoin gained 3.97%, reaching $78,750.99. Ethereum rose by 3.57%, to $2400.37.

Investors remain cautious after the extension of the ceasefire. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 0.6 basis points from 4.292% to 4.286% late Tuesday. The 30-year bond rate fell 0.9 basis point to 4.8887%, from 4.898% on Tuesday. The 2-year bond yield, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve, increased 1.3 basis points from late Tuesday to 3.792%.

The oil prices rose following reports of attacks against container ships in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. crude climbed 2.09% to $91.54 per barrel while Brent rose 2.15% to $100.58 a barrel.

The gold price rose as geopolitical uncertainty eased and the pressure to liquidate metals decreased. Gold spot rose by 0.45%, to $4.732.98 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.93% to $4.742.20 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)