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Gold rises on the back of a weaker dollar as US-Iran hopes for peace deal rise
Gold prices rose Thursday due to a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields. Investors were 'optimistic' about a possible end to the Middle East conflict, which had stoked inflation fears. By 0723 GMT, spot gold had risen 0.7% to $4821.96 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery gained 0.4%, to $4843.40. The U.S. dollar hovered around its lowest level in six weeks, making greenback-denominated ?commodities, including bullion, more affordable for holders of other currencies. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell by 0.1%, as?hopes for a U.S. Iran peace deal reduced bets on higher U.S. rates over the long term. Kelvin Wong is a senior analyst at OANDA. He said that the primary driver for gold is?the optimism regarding a U.S.Iran ceasefire, which is pushing down global longer-term bond rates. This has created a lower 'opportunity costs of holding gold and Silver. If we begin to see a break over $4,900 then further upside potential cannot be ruled in towards the next resistance zone at the psychological level $5,000. The Trump administration and a Pakistani mediator in Tehran have been expressing optimism that a deal could be reached to open the Strait of Hormuz. A senior Israeli official said that Israel's cabinet had met on Wednesday, six weeks after its war against Iran-backed Hezbollah, to discuss the possibility of a ceasefire in Lebanon. The spot gold price has fallen by more than 8% since the Iran War began late in February, amid fears that high energy prices will feed inflation and keep global interest rates up. Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation but higher interest rates are affecting its demand. In the U.S. traders see a 29 percent chance of a 25 basis-point cut in interest rates this year. There were two expected reductions in interest rates for this year before the war. Silver spot rose 1.4%, to $80.12 an ounce. Platinum gained 1%, to $2,130.25. Palladium increased 0.9%, to $1,587.25. (Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Harikrishnan Nair)
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Aluminum demand rises on hopes of US-Iran agreement
Aluminum rallied Thursday on expectations of an acute supply shortage due to the Middle East Conflict, as growing hope for a U.S. Iran peace deal improves demand outlook. Benchmark?three month aluminium at the London Metal Exchange rose 1.27% by 0705 GMT to $3,667.5 a metric ton, its highest since March 24, 2020. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded aluminium contract closed the daytime trading up 2.89% to 25,635 Yuan ($3,760.62), its highest since March 9. The optimism grew as a key Pakistani facilitator in Tehran and Trump's administration talked up hopes for a pact that would open the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway in the Middle East. According to a research report dated April 13, JP Morgan predicted a 1.9 million tonne primary aluminium shortage in 2026. This is the biggest deficit since 2000. The Iran war has affected the supply of aluminium in the Gulf, which accounted for 9% before the war. Some local aluminium smelters either reduced output or sustained damage from the attacks. Analysts at JP Morgan expect the price of aluminium to reach $4,000 within the next few months. Falling inventories were one of the factors that supported aluminium prices and tightened supply. Stocks of aluminium in LME-approved storage facilities Since late February, the price of oil has dropped by about 15%. Other than that, there are?aluminium stockpiles at three major Japanese port cities In March, the number of people in Canada who travelled abroad fell by 7.4% compared to the previous month. Analysts said that the hopes of?growing overseas orders for Chinese aluminum and a 'drawdown in Chinese stock also fueled price rise. SHFE copper increased by 0.39%. Nickel?added 0.52 %, lead increased 0.69%. Zinc?advanced 0.86 %, while Tin was not much changed. The price of copper increased by 0.76%. Nickel rose 1.31%. Lead edged up by 0.08%. Tin gained 1.2%. Zinc also climbed 0.79%. $1 = 6.8167 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Tony Munroe)
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Sources say that India-Zambia talks over critical minerals are stalled due to mining rights.
Two sources with knowledge of the matter said that India's discussions with Zambia about critical minerals mining have stalled due to a lack of?assurances from Lusaka regarding mining rights. India received a?allocation?of 9,000 sq km (3,474.92 sq miles) last year to explore cobalt, a component of batteries used in electric vehicles and cell phones, as well as copper. Copper is widely used in electronics, power generation and construction. India sent a geologist team last year, which has since returned with samples, including copper and cobalt. New Delhi planned to invite the private sector to participate in the exploration programme in Zambia after three years. This was subject to the acquisition of mining rights. Why Zambia withheld mining rights assurances was not immediately apparent. One source said that New Delhi is attempting to restart talks with Zambia but the situation remains uncertain. The discussions were not public, so they declined to identify themselves. The Indian federal Ministry of Mines has not responded to a comment request. India has been in talks with several African ?countries to acquire critical mineral blocks on a government-to-government basis, while also exploring opportunities in Australia and Latin America. Last year, the Indian government held discussions internally about its growing vulnerability to a tightening global copper market. They also discussed ways of securing supplies from countries with abundant resources during ongoing trade talks. India's copper exports have risen dramatically since Vedanta closed its?Sterlite Copper Smelter in 2018. In the fiscal year that ended?March 2025 India imported 1.2 million tons of copper, an increase of 4% over?the prior year. Government data revealed that India's cobalt imports are almost entirely dependent on the country. Shipments of cobalt dioxide will increase 20% by 2024-25, to 693 tons. (Reporting and editing by Mayank Bhadwaj, Janane Venkatraman and Neha Arora)
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Stellantis will stop car assembly in France's Poissy factory by 2029
Stellantis announced on Thursday that it would stop producing new cars at its Poissy factory near Paris in a period of?three to four years as it works to reduce excess manufacturing capacity across Europe. Jeep and Peugeot are facing a 'chronic' overcapacity problem in the region where auto sales still haven't returned to pre-pandemic numbers. Stellantis' situation has been exacerbated by rapid gains made by Chinese low-cost competitors, as well as slower than expected progress towards electric vehicles. Stellantis was forced to announce a $25 billion write-down in the first quarter of this year. After talks with the unions, a Stellantis spokesperson said that production of the DS3 in Poissy and the Opel Mokka at Poissy will cease by the end of the year 2028. The site will then no longer manufacture new vehicles but continue to?manufacture auto parts for Stellantis' other factories. Stellantis told the unions during the meeting that the end date for production was penciled in at 'the end of 2028. This would be confirmed later. Stellantis will spend 100 million euros (117.96 millions) on the Poissy facility to upgrade it. This will enable new activities, such as 3D-printing for parts, or reconditioning, and recycling, used vehicles. An industry source familiar with the situation said that the future of this plant has been uncertain. Production is expected to drop and will be at 68,000 units by 2026, and 65,000 by 2027. This is well below 145.800 units in 2023. Stellantis refused to comment on volume forecasts. The factory was built by Ford in 1940 and acquired by Chrysler in the 1950s. It was then taken over by Peugeot in the 1960s, and Stellantis took it over in 2021. The plant was at its height in 1976 when it employed 27,000 workers and produced over 500,000 cars annually. Around 1,600 people currently work for 'Poissy. This number is expected to fall to 1,200 workers by 2030, due to the aging of its workforce. A spokesperson said that around 1,000 new jobs will be required by 2030 in order to accommodate new businesses. Training programmes have also been implemented.
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Iron ore prices rise as positive economic data from China lifts sentiment
Iron ore futures soared on Thursday, boosted by positive economic data from China. Meanwhile, a lack of domestic crude steel production fueled hopes that global steel prices would be lifted and Chinese steel mill margins improved. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange traded 3.1% higher, at 782.5 Yuan ($114.79). As of 0708 GMT, the benchmark May iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was $106.15 per ton higher. The 'Trump Administration' expressed optimism about a possible deal with Iran on Wednesday, but warned of increased economic pressure if Tehran continues to be defiant. Metals markets rose on Thursday as optimism about the end of the Iran War fueled positive sentiment. Official data released on Thursday showed that?China?s economy grew by 5% from a year earlier in the first three months of the year, exceeding analysts' expectations, as policymakers prepare for the aftermath of the Iran War. China's crude-steel output also fell 6.3% year-on-year in March, to its lowest monthly level since 2020. Margins were thinned out and exports decreased amid the Middle East conflict. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced on Thursday that the world's biggest steel producer produced 87.04 metric tons crude steel in December. Steel prices could rise globally if China reduces its steel production. China's high export volumes historically have suppressed the price of steel, making it difficult for steel mills to profit. In March, the country pledged to reduce?overcapacity within its steel industry. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also gained on the DCE. They were up by 2.32% and respectively 1.94%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's steel benchmarks have mostly advanced. Rebar, hot-rolled coil, and wire rod all gained, while stainless steel remained unchanged.
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BBC reports that Bank of England's Bailey is 'not going rush' to make decisions on rate increases.
Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, told BBC News that "the Bank of England will not rush to judgement" regarding interest rate increases, as central banks around he world are dealing with a soaring energy price due to 'the iran war. Bailey, who was in Washington at the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund, said that higher oil and gasoline prices would undoubtedly feed through into prices. However, other factors make a decision about rates "very difficult", according to?the report. Bailey stated that "there are really difficult judgments to make." We're not going rushing to judgements because there's a lot to be uncertain about. IMF cut its growth outlook on Tuesday, citing energy price spikes and disruptions caused by war. The IMF also warned that the global economy may be pushed to the edge of recession if war intensifies and oil prices remain above $100 a barrel until 2027. The UK suffered the biggest downgrade of all large, rich economies. Alexander Demarco, a policymaker at the European Central 'Bank, echoed Bailey's comments, saying that policymakers should be patient and take their time when making decisions, while acknowledging the possibility that the euro 'zone economy could be heading towards the ECB’s negative scenario. Both policymakers' comments emphasized a cautious approach in monetary policy, due to the uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of the?energy price shock. They also followed the IMF’s advice to central banks, which was to indicate an objective "protecting price stability but don't hurry". Bailey stated in 'March, when the central banks?held interest rates' that the financial markets were?getting ahead of themselves by expecting rate increases after the decision. The next meeting of the bank to decide on rates will be held on April 30. Reporting by MuvijaM, Editing by Andy Bruce
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The US coal industry is given a reprieve by the US government, but this will not last long: Jenarthan & Jain
Coal has been given an unlikely reprieve by the combination of U.S. support and the Iran War. Don't call this a comeback. In the first weeks of Tehran’s war against the U.S., and Israel, the global seaborne thermal prices of coal rose by over 25%. Prices rose to the highest level since late-2024, adding new momentum to a 'unexpected' rebound. This price rise reflects short-term market conditions, not a structural improvement in the?coal economy, as is evident by the fact that prices are only 15% higher than pre-war levels. These recent steps come after coal achieved several positive milestones in the last year. The U.S. consumption increased 10% in 2025. This ended a 15-year downward trend, and was largely due to an increase in natural gases prices, President Donald Trump’s support for the policy, and record electricity demands from data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure. The global coal production and consumption increased marginally last year, mostly due to the growing energy demand of emerging economies. Thermal coal prices fell to a four-year-low in the first half 2025, however, as demand did not keep up with the production boom that followed Russia's invasion. China, the world's biggest coal consumer and a country that accounts for 56% of global demand, has fueled most of the additional consumption through domestic production, leaving the seaborne market with an oversupply. The U.S. coal sector has endured a tough few decades, punctuated with bankruptcies and restructurings. More than 60 U.S. coal companies, including the biggest in the industry filed for bankruptcy between 2012 and 2022. At least eight others have since been added. The future is not much brighter. The International Energy Agency predicted in December that coal demand worldwide would likely plateau by 2030 and then drop slightly due to the?slowing Chinese demand, as renewables and nuclear power erode China's dominance of power generation. This projection was made before the Iran energy crisis, but there are no signs that it has changed much. The long-term trend is clear. Despite the short-term gains of "black gold" last month, coal is the largest source for global carbon emissions and is on the decline structurally in the U.S., with a likely stagnation globally. BAD ECONOMICS The U.S. coal industry was once a major source of electricity. However, its importance has been declining for many years in the largest economy on earth. Over the last decade, there has been little new investment. Alaska is the only state in which a new coal plant has been built since 2013. The majority of U.S. operators instead retire coal-fired power plants, because they are no longer economically viable to operate and maintain. The Trump administration is trying to combat this. The Trump administration has prioritized expanding energy production to provide the massive amount of electricity required to fuel the AI Revolution. Even though Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated in September that Washington was in talks with U.S. utility companies and expected most of the dozen or so coal plants in the United States nearing retirement would delay their closure, it may be just postponing what is inevitable. This is because keeping old plants running can have real costs for ratepayers. The risk is illustrated by a case study on a Michigan coal power plant. The Environmental Defense Fund concluded that allowing the coal plant to remain uneconomical shifted costs on customers and discouraged investment in more cost-effective energy sources. Grid Strategies estimates that federal mandates for coal plant extension could cost ratepayers up to $6 billion annually. Further, the extension of coal plant operations will require continued policy intervention and cost recovery measures. It may also be necessary to issue emergency orders. This support will be unlikely to continue after the 2020 election, when the White House is likely to switch parties. The outlook for the future is also too uncertain to justify long-term investments. Even if U.S. Federal policy boosts coal supply in the next few years, this does not guarantee that demand will follow suit. This is especially true given the stiff competition of natural gas and renewables. A mismatch between supply and demand will lead to a glut of coal, which in turn will result in lower prices. That's exactly what happened after the post-Ukraine-invasion supply surge. CLEAR-EYED CAPITAL After shunning coal for over a decade, institutional capital is now returning to it. This is largely due to the fact that coal companies have cut costs and returned cash back to shareholders over the past few years. Their share prices recovered from low levels and have outperformed broader equity indexes over the last five years. This outperformance will not last. The cost of environmental liability and litigation is increasingly being priced into the valuations of coal companies, which has a negative impact on their long-term performance. Investors may continue to be attracted by the Middle East energy crisis and U.S. executive action in favor of coal, but this will only temporarily boost the industry's structural problems. The recent performance of coal companies is unlikely to last, as the current coal equity prices - now at levels 'below prewar levels' - already indicate. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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As traders place bets on Iran truce, stocks soar to new heights
In Asian trading, global equities soared to new highs on Thursday amid growing optimism about an agreement to end the Iran War. Traders also digested economic data and important earnings reports. MSCI's All-Country World Index rose?0.2%, marking a 10th day of gains?and a new record high. U.S. president Donald Trump praised talks between Israel?and Lebanon?that he said would "happen tomorrow". The broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan, compiled by the index compiler, rose 1.2%. This puts it on track to gain for a third day in a row. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 2.5%, setting a new record. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%. Analysts from DBS, Singapore wrote that they were optimistic about a U.S. Iran deal being reached in the next few days. Market participants no longer treat the Middle East conflict as a major stress factor. We wonder if a U.S. Iran deal or ceasefire agreement is already priced in. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% on Wednesday and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.6% as Bank of America's and Morgan Stanley's strong quarterly earnings pushed the indexes up to new highs. Around 6% of companies reported earnings for the third quarter. 84% of them exceeded analysts' expectations. Scott Rubner is the head of equity derivatives and equity strategy at Citadel Securities in New York. This reset offers a more positive entry point into equities. This is especially true for large-cap growth companies. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), a linchpin in the AI sector posted a 58% increase in quarterly profits on Thursday. The company shrugged off fears that energy prices would rise due to the Middle East conflict, as the demand for its advanced chip technology soared. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in their research report that they remain "constructive" about emerging market stocks, as the "underlying profit growth will likely be strong". The region's earnings will be driven by "AI-related demand" which is relatively immune to the direct effects of the oil crisis. Brent crude oil fluctuated on the oil market between gains and losses. It was last down by 0.2%, at $94.71, after a Tehran-briefed source said that Iran might consider allowing ships sailing freely through the Omani Strait of Hormuz, without the risk of being attacked, as part of its proposals in negotiations with the United States. A refinery fire in Australia has also caused supply concerns. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures greenback strength against a basket six currencies, was unchanged at 98.00. This is the ninth consecutive day that the index has declined. Geopolitical concerns have eased, and traders are now expecting monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, threatened on Wednesday to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell if he did not resign from his separate position on the U.S. Central Bank's Board of Governors when Powell's term as Fed Chief ends on May 15. This heightened a complex?standoff which has disrupted the Fed's normally smooth transfer of power. It also renewed concerns about the Fed's independence. The euro is now within a few cents of its highest point since the war began, at $1.182325. This extends its recent winning streak to a ninth straight day. Chinese shares rose 0.8% as data revealed that Asia's biggest economy grew by 5.0% in the 1st quarter of this year compared to a year ago, exceeding analysts' expectations. Policymakers were preparing for the impact of the Iran War. The direct impact of the Middle East Conflict is contained at this time, according to Junyu Tan, regional economist of North Asia for Coface in Hong Kong. He added, "But the outlook for China is not all rosy in spite of its relative resilience in the face of disruptions to energy supply chains." If the conflict continues, it could be that global demand is weaker and this would affect exports. Australian shares were down 0.4%, and the Aussie Dollar rose 0.3%. It now stands at a four-year-high of $0.71890. Data showed that employment in Australia rose in line with expectations during March. This was due to the fact that firms hired more workers full-time. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%. Capital Economics analysts wrote in a report that the Reserve Bank of Australia's assessment of the inflation risks is reinforced by the latest data. Gold recovered 0.8% to $4,825.79. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin rose 0.3% to $75,084.56 while ether fell 0.2% to $2,359.89. (Reporting and editing by William Mallard, Kim Coghill and Gregor Stuart Hunter)
Mike Dolan: In the world of rivalry and war, technology is the winner.
Global investors are increasingly concerned about trade rivalry, conflict and other global issues. The rapid rebound of the stock market after each new episode could be due to this new normal rather than being a result.
Wall Street stocks and global indexes have already recovered their pre-war levels in just six weeks after the Iran War and its resulting spike in oil prices.
This is two weeks quicker than the recovery from President Donald Trump's tariff salvoes in April last year. This is a much?shorter time than it took for the Ukraine war to be rid of the energy inflation and interest rate shock, or the six-month recovery from COVID-19.
These incidents have defined in some way the fracturing world economies and global alliances.
Trump's view of the world is that economic and military competition are essential to his vision. His presidency has only accelerated this trend. Few believe that Trump is responsible for the new world order. Brookings Institution describes him, for instance, as being more of a symptom than a cause of global disruption. His time in office will probably not be enough to achieve greater national and regional independence.
Markets have often seen this as a world that is more fragile, with increased friction and costs across borders weighing down on businesses and economies.
The rapid bouncebacks in recent years are largely due to the development of technology, computing, artificial Intelligence, biotech, and clean energy, and the infrastructure that comes with it.
The escalating domestic military budgets and the cybersecurity imperatives, which are hallmarks of an increasingly balkanized world, could be another catalyst for global demand in digital technology and AI. This is true even if those who benefit aren't always the U.S. pioneers.
America's technological leadership was virtually assured in a globalized world. Allies of the United States had no desire to create their own tech giants, and they were content to buy the latest technology. This changes if the only leading technology is American, and America is not necessarily a friend power.
Lacking your own technology can expose you to the same risks as energy dependence.
Former U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan wrote in Foreign Affairs about the growing rivalry between the U.S. and China, and argued that it all boils down to technology.
Sullivan wrote: "Technological strength is translating rapidly and directly into geopolitical influence to a level the world hasn't seen for years." "For the first time since a long time, America is now facing a real peer competitor."
Local Secure Tech
Sullivan argues, by monopolizing key technologies and supply chains, China aims to become the world's most dependent country while becoming independent from everyone else.
He points out that 70% of lithium-ion battery production in the world and 34 of battery-cell production is now produced by the United States. It is now trying to replicate this pattern in the biotech sector, having made significant breakthroughs in AI and digital ecosystems.
Sullivan says that Washington must respond by ensuring that production and innovation are both brought onshore.
He warns, however, that the U.S. will not be able to maintain its technological leadership if "global support for digital infrastructure" is not maintained.
The picture becomes more complex when you look beyond China. Beijing and Washington are fierce rivals that have existed for many years. The same tech rivalry could be triggered in other regions if the U.S. breaks its alliances with Europe or the Middle East.
This may seem expensive and inefficient. Geopolitical risks, and security concerns, will increase demand for technology, chips, and hardware.
The news of war has once again caused stock prices to fall sharply and tech shares to drop. Earnings expectations also rose, and investors bought cheaper stocks.
Estimates of full-year earnings have been revised upwards due to the energy and defence stocks. The biggest increases in earnings expectations came from U.S. technology and major chip makers in Taiwan and South Korea.
BlackRock's strategists recommended again this week that investors overweight U.S. stocks and emerging markets. The U.S. technology sector's 12-month valuation premium has fallen to its lowest level since the depths of pandemic mid-2020.
It's hard to ignore the cheapening of what is still a global technology overdrive.
BlackRock stated that "we see geopolitical disintegration supporting defense, aerospace and causing governments to push harder for energy independence while leading companies to increase their investment in supply chain reliability." Along with the AI theme that will drive infrastructure and power demand.
The 'past month' has provided some answers to those questions. The fragmented political world may reinforce this theme.
Save the date! On April 23, at 1300 GMT/9 a.m. ET, ROI columnists Mike Dolan, and Jamie McGeever, will be joining LSEG in a webinar entitled "Markets Unpacked With Open Interest: Rethinking Safe Havens In Uncertain Times." Sign up by clicking here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)