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PMI data shows that growth in the UAE's non-oil private sectors slowed to a near-four-year low during March.
A 'business survey' released on Friday showed that the United Arab Emirates non-oil sector expanded at its slowest rate in almost four years in March, as the Middle East conflict impacted demand and disrupted supply chains. The S&P Global UAE Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 52.9 from 55.0 in Feburary, which is the lowest level seen since July 2025. However, it remains in growth territory. The growth in output and new orders slowed down markedly. The output subindex fell to 54.9, the lowest rate of growth since June 20, 21. The demand growth has also slowed, with the subindex of new orders falling to 54.5 in February from 59.5, which marks a'slowest expansion since last August. David Owen, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that anecdotal feedback suggested?that tourism, retail, and logistics sectors were most affected. Segments such as technology, and construction showed a more mellow, but still significant impact. While the war had "taken a toll" on the non-oil sector in general, he said that for many firms the orders books remained resilient and output increased. After the Strait of Hormuz was closed, supplier delivery times increased for the first time since September 2021. Meanwhile, backlogs of works grew at the fastest rate so far this year. The business expectations for the coming 12 months have fallen to their lowest levels in just over five years. The headline PMI in Dubai, which is the business and tourism center of the region, dropped to 53.2, from 54.6. This was the weakest improvement for non-oil businesses in nine months. Hugh Lawson, Editor and Reporter (Reporting)
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Iron ore prices fall for the second consecutive week on high China stock
Iron ore prices continued to fall on Friday for the second consecutive?session. They were also on course for a second weekly drop, due to elevated portside stock levels?in China, their largest consumer. However, signs of improving?demand?helped limit the decline. The most traded iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange has fallen 0.81%, to 797 Yuan ($115.85), a metric tonne, and lost 1.8% this week. As of 0107 GMT the benchmark May iron ore price on the Singapore Exchange was 1.16% lower, at $105.15 per ton. This represents a 2% decline so far this week. Analysts said that the trade was dominated by downward pressure due to high stocks at port, and that the conflict between supply-and-demand remained tame. Data from Mysteel revealed that iron ore inventories at 47 Chinese port cities rose by 0.5% on a weekly basis to 177.5 million tonnes as of April 2. This is close to the record high of 179.47 million tons reached in mid-March. Concerns that the availability of spot iron ore could increase if China’s state iron buyer and BHP made progress in negotiations regarding a 2026 supply contract affected sentiment. The downside was however capped by signs that?demand is improving as some mills have resumed production following equipment maintenance. Mysteel data shows that the average daily hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, has risen 2.7% in a week to 2,37 million tons on April 2. This is its highest level since October 2025. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is causing indirect pressure on iron ore prices by increasing freight and fuel costs, according to analysts from ship-tracking company Kpler. Coking coal and coke, the other ingredients used in steelmaking, also declined by?0.98% apiece. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed. Rebar fell 0.26%; hot-rolled coil dropped 0.18%; wire rod grew 1.97%, and stainless steel gained 0.81%. ($1 = 6.8797 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Aluminium falls on a stronger dollar but is headed for the biggest weekly gain of a month
Aluminum prices fell on Friday as a stronger currency and mounting fears of an economic recession - after fading hopes for a quick 'end' to the Iran War - outweighed supply concerns that kept the metals on course for a week gain. As of 0152 GMT, the most traded aluminium at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.66% to 24,690 yuan (US$3,586.94). This week it has gained 3.2%, which is the largest weekly gain for a month. The London 'Metal Exchange (LME), which is closed for Easter on Friday and Monday, will remain closed. The dollar increased after U.S. president Donald Trump's speech about Iran shattered market expectations of a quick end to the war and rekindled fears of inflation, interest rate increases, and a possible recession. The dollar's strength makes commodities priced in greenbacks less affordable to investors who use other currencies. Prices for the light metal, which is used in construction, packaging, and transport, reached a near four-year high earlier this week. The attacks by Iran on two Middle East aluminium manufacturers heightened fears that the Gulf region, which accounted for 9% of global supply before the war, would suffer a greater'supply loss. The Iranian war has tightened global supply, boosting margins and causing some of the earlier estimates for flat shipments to be revised higher. Other SHFE metals saw a 0.1% drop in copper, a 0.09 percent decline in nickel, a 0.55% decrease for tin, and 1.18% reductions in zinc, while lead increased by 0.18%.
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McGeever: The 'no hire' US economy is exposed by the war in Iran.
The U.S. employment?growth has virtually slowed to a standstill. This was acceptable for policymakers and investors before the Iran war. It shouldn't be so now. Since a while, the labor market has steadily declined, but it has been hidden by a?headline unemployment rate that has risen, but only gradually. It is still low by historical standards at 4.4%. The labor market is stagnant. JOLTS, the closely watched Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released this week, showed that hiring has now reached its lowest level since April 2020. It's possible that hiring will not pick up in the next few months. Bureau of Labor Statistics figures are expected on Friday to show that the U.S. created a total of 60,000 nonfarm jobs in March. This would give a monthly average of around 30,000 in the first three months. The average six-month monthly payroll growth was negative just a few months back. This is not sustainable for the world's largest economy, a $30 trillion juggernaut, with a workforce of 170 million. The increase in incomes leads to an increase in spending, economic activity and, ultimately, growth. Low hiring slows down the flow of tax revenue into the government's coffers. This puts a strain on public finances. BREAKEVEN JOB GROWTH IS NOW AROUND ZERO The fall in "breakeven" employment growth can explain the puzzle of a relatively stable unemployment rate despite evaporating jobs growth. This is the level of employment required to maintain the unemployment rate. According to a Dallas Fed report published this week, three years ago there were around 250,000 new jobs created each month. It has been declining steadily ever since and is now almost zero. This means that the unemployment rate is stable even if the economy barely creates any jobs. Normaly, a slowing of the?demand for employees should be a warning sign that the unemployment rate will soon rise, that the economy has slowed, and the recession risk is increasing. A job growth rate below the estimated breakeven level is a more alarming warning. The labor supply is also decreasing rapidly. This is largely because of the Trump administration’s policy to reduce net immigration. The longer-term impacts are yet to be determined. Currently, however, they are compensating for the decline in hiring. The jobs market might appear stable from the outside if the labor supply and demand is roughly equal, and the unemployment rate has remained relatively stable. It's a bad labor market. No longer so ruthless or confident The fragile labor market is also more susceptible to breaking, which puts the delicate balance at risk. Energy prices are structurally higher and inflation is rising due to the supply shocks caused by the Middle East conflict. These prices will continue to rise at least through the end of this year and possibly beyond. This means that consumers' bills and company costs are likely to increase. Gasoline is over $4 per gallon and oil is above $100 a barrel. Household budgets are under pressure. The financial climate has tightened and businesses have been hampered by rising input costs, such as energy and transportation. Spring and summer season factors are also a hindrance to hiring. The Federal Reserve ?paused its interest-rate-cutting cycle in January, and policymakers seemed more confident that downside risks to the labor market were diminishing. Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, said that artificial intelligence-driven productivity growth could help complement the "low-hire and low-fire" labor dynamics, which he believes will keep inflation under control. This was a common view before the Iran War. The economy is looking less robust, much like the labor market. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Trafigura denies Bolivia's claim of its fuel contract being suspended
Trafigura has not ceased its contracts with Bolivia's oil and gas state company YPFB, a spokesperson for the company said on Thursday. The company was rejecting a claim made by Bolivian Energy Minister Mauricio Medinaceli. Medinaceli announced on Tuesday that Bolivia will suspend its gasoline contracts Trafigura, and with rival trading house Vitol, until the investigation into the alleged smuggling of poor-quality fuel from Chile is completed. Later, on Thursday, YPFB confirmed its main supply contracts are still in effect, ensuring a?continuity of supply. The state-owned company has announced that it has signed an addition to its existing contract with Vitol in order to set stricter limits on gum and manganese. YPFB stated in a press release that the?new quality standards exceed current Bolivian regulation and will be implemented without additional costs to the state. The spokesperson for Trafigura said that the contracts between Trafigura & YPFB did not include the supply of fuel. "Trafigura always fulfilled its contractual obligations and received no complaints or claims from YPFB relating?to product quality or 'any other?? matter. The contracts are still in force and not suspended." Vitol couldn't be reached immediately for comment. Medinaceli announced the decision 'after the government reported that 5,000 tanker truck carrying adulterated gasoline had entered Bolivia through a transnational network of smugglers. It is estimated that $150 million in adulterated gas was moved between October 2025 to March 2026. Reporting by Robert Harvey and Daniel Ramos in London; Editing by Jan Harvey
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Oil prices soar and stocks end in volatile trade
Oil prices soared on Thursday, and equity markets around the globe were volatile as traders weighed contradictory developments and remarks related to Iran war. As some major Wall Street indices and U.S. Bond prices retraced gains after news broke that Iran and Oman were drafting a protocol to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The day after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will "hit Iran extremely hard" over the next few weeks, and "bring [them] back to the Stone Ages," the U.S. oil prices soared by nearly 8%. Wall Street's stocks finished mixed on the last trading day of the week before Good Friday. Gold prices dropped as the U.S. Dollar gained. Government bond yields increased on the expectation that an inflation spike would force central banks to increase interest rates or at least hold them. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies, including the yen and the euro) rose by 0.44%. Felix-Antoine Vezina Pouirier, BCA Research, said that Tehran and Washington had exchanged a cacophony in the last 48 hours. Some of these statements suggested a rising likelihood of de-escalation. GeoMacro strategists provide a simple guideline for weighing headlines that are volatile: stick to the facts. The shipping through Hormuz increased in the last few days. Second, Iran has deliberately "shifted away from GCC targets (Gulf Cooperation Council), toward 'Israeli' targets." WALL STREET POINTS WERE LOWER The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 0.35%, to 993.18. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 0.13%, to 46,504,67. The S&P 500 gained 0.11%, to 6,582.69, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.18%, to 21,879.18. In an address that was closely watched on Wednesday, Trump stated that U.S. attack on Iran will be intensified in the next two-three weeks. This was just one day after Trump said the U.S. will be "out Iran pretty soon." Both the pan-European STOXX 600 and Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 indexs lost 0.2%. The Kospi Index in South Korea fell 4.7%. Prashant Nnewnaha, senior rate strategist at TD Securities said: "The only question that matters is whether or not the Strait of Hormuz opens soon." Trump said earlier on Wednesday that the U.S. The U.S. Spot gold dropped 1.85% to $4.669.05 per ounce, and U.S. Gold Futures fell 2.8% at $4.679.70. India's central banks has banned the trading of non-deliverable futures to stop the rupee from falling to record lows. The currency rose 2% after the move, but analysts were unsure how long it would last. Brent?futures rose 7.78% to $109.03 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate ended up 11.41% at $111.54. Jon Withaar, Pictet Asset Management, said that the fact that "boots on the ground" were not ruled-out (during Trump’s TV address), and that the threats to strike infrastructure were repeated, would put the market 'on the defensive'. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note fell by 1.6 basis points to?4.305%. The yield on the two-year notes, which usually moves in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve was flat at 3.803%. The yields on the benchmark Bunds in the Eurozone ended a three-day slide and traders increased their bets that interest rates will rise. The yield of the benchmark German 10-year increased by 0.1 basis points, to 2.996%.
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Israel's Leviathan Gas Field to resume operation after war shutdown: Energy Ministry
The 'Israeli energy minister' announced a resumption of?operations at the offshore israeli?Leviathan field after a one-month war shutdown. Since the U.S., Israel and Iran launched their attacks against Iran on February 28, the?field operated by Chevron has been closed. In a press release, a spokesperson for the energy ministry said that "after situation assessments and an?review? of all relevant factors?it has been decided at this stage?to return?the Leviathan platform?to operation. The supply of natural gas will continue to be supplied to the local market and will now be increased by adding another platform to the production systems. Leviathan, one of the largest gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean with a recoverable gas estimated at 635?bcm, is a large gas field. Chevron, along with its partners, approved plans in January to 'vastly increase production' at the field. The resulting?project is expected to supply Egypt and other countries with natural gas worth more than $35 billion. The expansion is expected to 'boost gas supplies from Leviathan in the region and Europe by 9 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year, flowing at about?21bcm.
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Pakistan increases fuel prices by more than 50% amid escalating Mideast conflict
Pakistan raised consumer prices for petrol and diesel by more than 50% on Thursday, its second price hike in less than one month. This was due to the rising global oil prices, which were sparked by the conflict in the Middle East. Diesel prices will rise by more than 55%, to 520.35 Rupees ($1.88) a litre. Petrol prices are expected to increase by 55% or so to 458.40 Rupees a litre. The price increase was inevitable due to the international markets prices spiraling out of control following the US-Iran War, Pakistan's Petroleum Minister, Ali Pervaiz?Malik said at a press conference broadcast on state television. He also spoke with the country's Finance Minister. Last month, the South Asian country raised the prices of diesel and petrol for consumers by around?20%. They cited higher oil prices caused by the U.S./Israeli war against?Iran. This decision will likely lead to a rise in inflation, which will hit Pakistan's poor population. Pakistan imports most of its oil from Saudi Arabia and UAE via the Strait of Hormuz. In a separate news conference, the country's Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb announced subsides aimed at providing relief to?small farmers and motorcyclists as well as intercity transportation goods and passengers. Malik stated that the government has given a subsidy worth 129 billion rupees over the past three weeks. However, it is no longer affordable because of the increase in international oil prices. He said that, "Since resources are limited and no end to the war is in sight," there was no way to continue with blanket subsidies. U.S. crude oil prices rose more than 11% on Thursday. Brent prices also soared in volatile trading, a day after Donald Trump announced that military operations will be intensified.
Trump threatens to strike Iran’s electric power plants and bridges
Donald Trump, the U.S. President, warned late on Thursday that he would destroy bridges and electric power plants across Iran. This was his latest threat of destroying Iran's infrastructure.
The U.S. Military "hasn't yet started to destroy what's remaining in Iran." Trump posted on Twitter that he would be focusing his attention next on bridges, followed by electric power plants.
In his post, he said that Iran’s leadership "knows" what needs to be done and "has to be done FAST!"
Trump, who previously has offered shifting timelines for the war and different objectives, said in a televised address on Wednesday that if Iran refused to 'give in' to Washington, the war would escalate, and possible strikes against its oil and energy infrastructure could be launched.
The U.S. government released an open letter on Thursday in which dozens of international law experts said that the U.S.'s strikes against Iran could amount to war crimes.
The 1949 Geneva Conventions on Humanitarian Conduct in War prohibits attacks on sites considered vital for civilians.
According to the Geneva Conventions and their additional protocols, parties in a military conflict are required to distinguish between "civil objects and military targets" and attacks on civilians are prohibited.
"We will hit them very hard over the next two to three week." Trump stated in his Wednesday speech that "we are going to take them back to their Stone Ages where they belong."
Trump did not give a timetable for the end of the war, despite his claim that Washington is nearing completion of its goals in Iran.
The U.S. and Israel began the war on 28 February when they attacked Iran. Tehran retaliated by launching attacks on Israel and Gulf States with U.S. base. The joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, as well as Israeli attacks in Lebanon, have resulted in the deaths of thousands.
The war has also?raised oil prices and shook?global market? Trump's contradictory messages have not helped ease concerns about his country's largest military attack since 2003's invasion of Iraq. Kanishka Singh reported from Washington, Himani Sarkar edited by Raju Gopalakrishnan.
(source: Reuters)