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LME Aluminium nears peak in four years after Iran attacks on Gulf Smelters
Prices of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange rose 6% on Monday to close in on a four-year high after the two largest producers of the metal in the Middle East sustained damage over the weekend from Iranian attacks. Benchmark LME 3-month aluminium prices rose to $3.492 per metric tonne, the highest level since March 19 at the beginning of trading, as Gulf smelters Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain assessed damage to their facilities. If the price of gold breaks above $3,546.50 on March 12, it will open the door to peaks not seen since the height of the Covid period in 2022. Aluminium Bahrain, which operates one of the largest smelters in the world, said on Sunday that it was evaluating the damage after Iranian attacks on the facility. The state-controlled company Aluminium Bahrain said that two employees were injured in the attack on Saturday. Meanwhile, Emirates Global Aluminium, a regional competitor, suffered significant damage due to missile and drone strikes. Since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began, most Gulf aluminium producers - which account for about 9 percent of global supply - have been unable?to ship to world markets via their usual?channels due to Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. EGA is Middle East's biggest producer of metal, and Alba operates world's largest single-site smelter. South32 and Rio Tinto, both listed in Australia, also saw their shares rise. South32 was up nearly 7 percent while Rio Tinto rose more than 2 percent. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Jonathan Oatis and Melanie Burton)
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The fugitive accused of killing 2 Australian police officers is shot dead
Australian media reported on Monday that police shot and killed a fugitive gunman, who was on the run since August for allegedly killing two officers in 'Victoria. Dezi Filby (formerly known as Desmond Filby) was on the run from police since a shooting in a rural area that injured a third cop. Authorities offered a reward of A$1,000,000 ($684,700), if they could help capture him. Freeman is accused of opening fire on 10 police officers, including members of the Sexual Offences and Child Investigation Team, who were executing a search warrant at a property near Porepunkah (about 300 km from Melbourne). Freeman, who was said to possess expert bushcraft and multiple powerful guns, fled into the bushland of Mount Buffalo National Park. Local media described him as a "sovereign citizen" who views the government as unlegitimate. Australian Broadcasting Corp reports that the 56-year old man was shot around 8:30 a.m. on Monday (2130 GMT Sunday). Victoria Police?stated in a press release that they fatally shot a man at a property in northeast Victoria, during an operation to find Freeman. However, the police did not identify this man. The statement stated that "no police officers were injured in the incident", and added that more details would be released on Monday.
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Taganrog, southern Russia: Ukrainian drones damage homes and industry, kill one.
Local officials reported that a?Ukrainian 'drone attack' killed one person and damaged homes and industry in Taganrog on Sunday. Regional governor stated that falling drone debris caused the evacuation of a region hit by falling debris. Governor Yuri 'Slyusar of Rostov Region, on the eastern border of Ukraine, Yuri Telegram, said that emergency crews were working on the site where debris had fallen. "Fires have broken out and there has been damage." "People have been evacuated." In a post made on Telegram, Taganrog mayor Svetlana Kambulova spoke of "widespread damages in the city". She said that emergency crews responded 49 calls. Eight people were hurt. She wrote: "Several residential houses, industrial sites, and social sites were damaged due to falling?drone debris." Air-defence units are still in operation. Taganrog, a port city at the eastern end of the Sea of Azov and east of the Ukrainian border is the largest port in Russia. (Reporting and editing by Jonathan Oatis).
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New York Times: US allows Russian oil tanker to enter Cuba
New York Times, Sunday, reported that the United States is allowing a Russian oil tanker to arrive in Cuba. This would be an easing of the de facto oil blockade Washington has placed on Cuba. Washington has effectively stopped all oil shipments to Cuba to exert pressure on the government in Havana. The U.S. temporarily lifted sanctions on Russia in order to improve the flow of crude oil which has been restricted by the U.S. military strikes against Iran and Israeli strikes. The Times report said that it was unclear as to why the Trump Administration allowed the shipment through. LSEG ship monitoring data also?showed that the U.S. sanctioned Anatoly Koodkin was on his way to Cuba. The tanker left Russia's Primorsk Port with approximately 650,000 barrels, although the New York Times reported that it had 730,000 barrels. This amount of oil could provide a significant relief for Cuba. According to President Miguel Diaz Canel, the island nation has not received oil imports in three months. This has led to a strict rationing of gas and an intensified energy crisis.
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Police: Three killed in Russian attack in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine
Police said that a Russian attack on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk, which was one of many attacks in frontline zones, killed three people and injured 13. The Ukrainian national police confirmed that a 13-year-old boy was among the dead. According to a statement, Russian forces used glide-bombs in the attack on Kramatorsk. This has been a frequent target during the four-year war between Kyiv and Moscow. Two hours after the first attack, Kramatorsk was again attacked. Other cities hit in Russian ?attacks included the nearby town of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka and the city ?of Sloviansk, farther north. The "fortress belt", which includes Kramatorsk,?Sloviansk and other heavily-defended cities, is seen as a key target in Russia's?slow westward advance to capture the?Donetsk Region. Could not independently verify battle accounts. Reporting by Ron Popeski, editing by Jonathan Oatis
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ADAMA chemical plant in southern Israel struck by Iranian missiles or debris
ADAMA, which makes active ingredients and crop protection materials, reported that its Makhteshim facility in southern Israel was 'hit either by an Iranian rocket or debris from an intercepted missile on Sunday. No injuries were reported. ADAMA, a part of the Chinese-owned Syngenta Group said that the extent of damage to the plant is not known at this time. Israel's Fire and Rescue Service said that a fire started in a southern Israel industrial area that contains several chemical manufacturing plants and?industrial facilities following an Iranian missile strike, probably debris from a rocket that was intercepted. The fire brigade of 34 crews was working to put out the blaze. They urged people to avoid the industrial area Ne'ot Hovav due to the "hazardous material" that is present. The fire department said that there is no danger to the public beyond 800 meters of the industrial area. Residents in the area are asked to stay indoors and close all windows and ventilation holes. They should also follow instructions from security and emergency services until the incident has been fully controlled. Fire and Rescue Service released video and images of the scene. The fire was a large ball and there was heavy black smoke. The Israeli military had earlier claimed that it detected missiles fired from Iran. The Israeli military?fired multiple waves at Israel on Sunday. However, there were no immediate reports of injuries or damage until the fire broke out in the south. Ne'ot Hovav, located in southern Israel, is about 8 miles (13 km) away from Beer Sheva. In the vicinity, there are a number of Israeli military bases. The'southern cities' of Arad and Dimona were hit by Iranian missiles last weekend, injuring dozens. This was one of the most serious attacks on Israeli soil of the U.S./Israeli war against Iran.
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Finland reports suspected drone territorial violations
The?defence minister of Finland reported Sunday that there was a'suspected territorial breach by unmanned aerial vehicle in the southeast?of the country. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which are nearby, said earlier this week that several Ukrainian drones crashed on their territories after they went astray while attacking Russian oil exportation facilities?on the Baltic Sea Coast. Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, export routes and other military targets in recent weeks to try and weaken Russia's war-economy and because peace talks, mediated by Washington, are stalling. The origin of the drones that were detected in Finland was not immediately known. "Drones strayed onto Finnish territory." "We are treating this matter very seriously," wrote Defence Minister Antti hakkanen in a post on social media, adding that an investigation is ongoing. In a statement, the Ministry of Defence said that on Sunday morning several small objects were seen flying low in altitude over an area near a sea and in southeastern Finland. It said that one drone landed on the ground north of Kouvola. Another fell east of Kouvola. It was reported that the Finnish Air Force carried out a?identification flight with a?F/A-18 Hornet jet fighter. Anne Kauranen reported from Helsinki, and Terje Solsvik from Oslo. Mark Potter edited the article.
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Questions are raised about some trades made ahead of Trump's policy changes
Experts have questioned whether some of Donald Trump's most important policy decisions were preceded by well timed bets. This is a list. March 23, 2026: IRAN ATTACK pause. An unidentified trader or traders placed $500 million in bets on Brent and WTI futures within a minute, shortly before Trump announced that he would delay the?attacks against Iran's energy infrastructure for five days. After Trump's announcement, oil prices dropped 15%. LSEG data indicates that between 1049 and 10:00 GMT,?5,100?? lots changed hands. Selling dominated volume. Trump's announcement on social media at 1105 GMT caused over 13,000 lots, or 13 million barrels, to trade in just 60 seconds. Brent fell to $99 from $112 per barrel and WTI to $86 from $99. February 28, 2026 – IRAN STRIKES KILLED SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI Wagers made on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi prior to the death of Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei heightened scrutiny over prediction markets. Democratic lawmakers called for a ban on wagers that are tied to military action, which could reward those who have privileged information. A review of Polymarket’s website revealed that at the time, $529 million had been wagered on a variety of contracts tied to timing of U.S. - Israeli strikes against Iran. Another $150 million had been staked on Khamenei’s removal as supreme ruler. Prediction markets allow users to wager on real-world events through a range of tradable contracts. Bubblemaps, an analytics firm, identified six accounts which made a total profit of $1.2 million from Polymarket bets funded just hours before the raids on February 28. U.S. Rep. Mike Levin from California highlighted one particular Polymarket bet that was placed just before the Iran strike. Separately traders moved the opposite way on February 27 despite hotter than expected inflation data, which would normally prompt investors to sell long-dated Treasuries. They pushed yields on 10-year notes below 4%. Analysts say that such a shift to safe-haven assets is usually driven by macroeconomic events which are negative or imminent. The Dow Jones U.S. Airlines Index fell 5.13% that day, as oil prices increased. January 3, 2026 -- U.S. CAPTURE OF FORMER VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT NICOLASMADURO An unknown trader made a profit of approximately $410,000 in January after betting on the ouster Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Before the weekend raid on Maduro’s Caracas compound by U.S. Special Forces, a trader’s account at Polymarket had built up contracts that were?tied to Maduro’s removal. The terms implied high odds. These wagers, which were worth approximately $34,000 before his capture, soared in value when news of the U.S. military action broke on January 3. Trading data shows that unidentified traders bet millions on the U.S. Stock Market rebounding in the moments before Trump's announcement of a tariff pause. This triggered a huge rally in April last year. Trump's Truth Social post pausing the tariffs was posted at 1:18 pm. ET on April 9 triggered a 9.5% increase for the S&P 500. Data from the market shows that certain options contracts saw a surge in trading activity before it. Around 1 p.m., 5,105 call options for SPY were traded. The average price of the SPY call options was $4.20. These calls rose as high as 42 dollars, turning 2,14 million dollars into approximately $21.44 millions on paper. Other SPY calls that bet on the ETF going above $509 were traded around 1:10 pm. ET; their value increased from $624,000 to $10 million at the end of the day. The trader could not tell if the calls had been?all bought or sold by a single trader, or whether several traders were involved and if they had closed their position with a profit. Kush Desai, White House spokesperson, said that government ethics guidelines prohibit federal employees from profiting from nonpublic information. In an email, he stated that any implication of Administration officials engaging in such activities without evidence was baseless and irresponsible.
Brent crude oil sets a record monthly increase
Stock futures in Asia fell on Monday, as investors hunkered down for an extended 'Gulf Conflict' that has already sent oil prices to a monthly record rise. This will lead to a spike in the price of oil and a risk of recession in many parts of the world.
Pakistan announced on Sunday that it is preparing to hold "meaningful discussions" in the coming days to end the 'conflict' over Iran, despite Tehran accusing Washington of planning a land attack as the U.S. Military sends more troops into the region.
Yemen's Houthis, who are also aligned with Iran, launched their first attack on Israel since the beginning of the conflict.
Madison Cartwright is a senior geo-economic analyst at CBA. She said that Iran's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt global energy markets and food markets as well as its continued missile and drone capability give it little reason to compromise, forcing the U.S. escalate.
"We expect that the war will last at least until June. The risk is that it could be a much longer conflict."
Prices for fuel, oil, gas and fertiliser have risen as a result of the clampdown in the Strait. Prices for food, pharmaceuticals, and petrochemicals are expected to increase.
This is bad news for Asia as much of that region is heavily dependent on Middle East energy. Futures for Japan's Nikkei index were trading lower at 50,870. This indicates a sharp fall from the close on Friday of 53,373.
S&P futures dropped another 0.6% while Nasdaq Futures fell by 0.7%.
Brent crude rose by 2.4% to $115.33 per barrel, topping the 59% gain that Iraq made after its invasion of Kuwait in 1990. U.S. crude rose 3.0% to $102.52 for a rise of 53% in a month.
Bruce Kasman warns that the longer the Strait is closed, the more dramatic the drawdown of buffer supplies, which could lead to dramatic increases in crude oil, natural gases and other commodities.
The scenario of the Strait remaining closed for another month is consistent with rising oil prices towards $150/bbl, and restrictions on energy consumption by industrial consumers.
As payrolls loom, the FED is in focus.
Investors have revised up their interest rate forecasts almost everywhere due to the inflationary threat. The Federal Reserve is expected to tighten interest rates by 12 basis points this year. This compares with 50 basis point cuts made a month ago.
John Williams, the influential leader of the New York Fed and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will also be speaking at an event on Monday.
This week, data on U.S. manufacturing, retail sales and payrolls will give a?update on the state of the economy. After February's shocking 92,000-job drop, jobs are expected to rise by 55,000 in the month of March. Unemployment is still at 4.4%.
The European Union is expected to release figures on Tuesday that show an annual inflation rate of 2.7%, up from 1.9% in March. Core prices, however, are expected to be stable.
Bond markets have been impacted by the coming energy shock and pressures on fiscal budgets due to higher borrowing costs.
The yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds is up 47 basis points for the month at 4.428%. Two-year yields are also up 54 basis points.
The increased volatility of the markets has helped the U.S. Dollar as the most liquid currency in the world. The United States also has a comparative advantage over Europe and Asia as a 'net energy exporter.
The dollar traded a little firmer on Monday morning at 160.42yen. Last week, the currency had crossed the 160 barrier again for the first since July 2024.
The euro was at $1.1492, just a little above the low of March $1.1409.
Gold was unchanged at $4,487 per ounce on commodity markets. It has received little support either as a safe-haven or a hedge against inflation risk. (Reporting and editing by Edmund Klamann; Reporting by Wayne Cole)
(source: Reuters)