Latest News

Stocks rally after Trump delays Iran military strike

The?world?markets quickly reversed their course on Monday, after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he had ordered the military to "postpone any attacks against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure", easing fears over a?deeper oil shock.

The markets reacted quickly and clearly: Brent crude oil futures dropped sharply, and the dollar was devalued against major currencies. Stock markets rose and government borrowing rates fell.

It was exactly what the markets needed to hear in order to re-price worst-case scenarios. Fiona Cincotta is a senior market analyst at City Index. She said that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen. It's already being priced into the market.

If we receive more positive comments, especially from Iran, that confirm the idea that "progress is being made," then this recovery will continue.

The Iranian media contradicts Trump's comments

Trump claimed that the postponement was a result of productive discussions with Iran.

Iran's Tasnim News Agency, citing a senior Iranian official, stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war condition and that energy markets will remain unresolved. It also added that there were no ongoing negotiations with the U.S.

Evelyne Gomez Liechti, Mizuho's multi-asset strategist noted that headlines in Iranian media contradicting Trump's remarks tempered market movements.

For now, however, the markets are largely optimistic. Brent crude prices last fell 7%, to around $103 per barrel. This was a reduction of losses from their previous 15% drop to $96. They reached $119 last Friday.

Investors' expectations of central bank rate increases in Europe grew after Trump's remarks. Government bond yields dropped dramatically.

U.S. Stock Futures are 1.4% higher, which indicates a strong Wall Street opening. European stocks last rose 0.7%.

INVESTORS EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN TRIM RATES

The 2-year yield in Britain, which has been the hardest hit by the bond selloffs since the beginning of the conflict fell 6 basis points yesterday, after rising 13 basis points earlier. The 10-year yield fell from its highest level since 2008.

Investors have lowered their expectations of a?Bank of England interest rate hike, with two hikes fully priced in by the end of the year compared to more than three hikes earlier on Monday. They also reduced their expectations of a?European Central Bank interest rate hike.

The 10-year Treasury yield was the lowest, at 4.37%, and the yields across the curve were down by 2-3 bps.

The dollar had been trading higher than most other currencies before the headline event.

The euro rose 0.1% to $1.158 from a previous low of $1.1485.

It's a clear jaw-boning when compared to the recent meltdown. "We're seeing some knee-jerk reactions to these positive?news," Elias Haddad said, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

There's definitely room for a little unwinding in the fear-trade. If this is a genuine de-escalation, or a mere pause in the escalation process before the next leg, a more sustained rally will be possible in risk assets. (Reporting and editing by Amanda Cooper and Elisa Martinuzzi; Additional reporting by Lucy Raitano, Purvi Agarwal and Alex Richardson;

(source: Reuters)